A True October Surprise (A Wikibox TL)

VERY nice TL...though one scary idea. The Apartheid forces were going after the nukes...but there were plenty of other nasty things in the labs of Apartheid supporter Wouter Basson.
 
VERY nice TL...though one scary idea. The Apartheid forces were going after the nukes...but there were plenty of other nasty things in the labs of Apartheid supporter Wouter Basson.

Thanks. Also, I didn't know about Project Coast until now. Figures that a regime as disgusting as the apartheid one wouldn't be shy about using chemical & biological weapons on its opponents.
 
Part 15: United States presidential election, 1988
Going into the 1988 election season, President Dole realized that he was in trouble. His approval ratings and job performance numbers were anemic and the president considered many possible solutions to reverse the trend, including replacing Vice President Heinz on the ticket, but settled instead on capitalizing on the ongoing peace negotiations the State Department was mediating between Israel and Egypt. Egyptian President Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Shamir were moved from Athens, where negotiations had been taken place previously, to Camp David, where Dole and Secretary Kissinger (who had secretly informed the president that he would retire regardless of if Dole won re-election) succeeded in getting the two leaders to finally agree to a peace treaty and normalization of relations. The Camp David Accords and subsequent treaty were a shot in the arm for the Dole re-election campaign and the subsequent withdrawal of Israel from the Sinai Peninsula during the next couple of years and its effects on international trade (with the chance of an international incident in the Suez Canal now greatly decreased) would largely become the most positive part of Dole's legacy.

On the Democratic side, the loss of three straight presidential elections had left the party increasingly desperate for a candidate who could appeal to the voting bloc that had shifted to the Republicans that party leaders felt would enable another victory: southern whites. As such, several southern politicians were courted as potential regional candidates who, in the mind of many party leaders who believed that many northern Democratic voters would not vote for a non-incumbent southern candidate following the Johnson presidency, run as the "southern candidate" and drop out to endorse the eventual nominee, who most believed would be Walter Mondale. What these leaders didn't expect was Kentucky Senator Walter D. Huddleston throwing his hat into the ring. Huddleston had previously been considered as a vice presidential candidate in 1984 and by 1988 had become the strongest southern candidate, but the national media did not initially take his campaign seriously, focusing instead on Mondale and other northern challengers such as Delaware Senator Joe Biden, Maine Governor George Mitchell and New York Governor Mario Cuomo.

Huddleston's strong performance in Iowa shocked the political world and the withdrawal of Mitchell after the Maine Governor's second-place showing in the neighboring New Hampshire primary quickly upset the predictions of the remaining northern candidates. The Super Tuesday 1988 was chaotic. Senator Biden was rushed to the hospital the Sunday night before after suffering an aneurysm, leaving Biden supporters to throw their votes between Cuomo, Mondale and Huddleston. Huddleston won enough support to cement his front-runner status and by the time Cuomo agreed to withdraw to allow Mondale to be the anti-Huddleston candidate, the Kentuckian had secured enough support from the party superdelegates to make the rest of the primaries a formality. Despite calls to pick one of his rivals for the ticket, Huddleston chose Michigan Governor Jim Blanchard, hoping to prevent a repeat of the Glenn campaign's loss of the state to Dole four years earlier.

The dark horse victory of a southern moderate threw the Dole campaign for a loop. Huddleston, being a southerner, made serious inroads into states the Democrats had not seriously been able to contest since 1964 and with the Huddleston campaign co-opting primary rivals in conscious avoidance of a 1984-style split (Mondale had quickly been promised the Secretary of State position after the final primary in June should the Minnesota senator agree to campaign for Huddleston). With the opposing party united, Dole made his success in Camp David a main campaign theme and made the promise to move any nuclear missiles away from populated areas as a result of the post-Kahuta nuclear panic. The latter promise, which initially boosted the president into the lead, led to a fierce reaction from retired national security officials who pointed out that this would make it near-impossible to move nuclear weapons or construct them anywhere but isolated missile silos in the Great Plains and Midwest.

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Dole could not quite overcome his low popularity and job performance ratings and voter fatigue with the Republican Party, which had controlled the presidency for 12 years. Huddleston became the first Democrat since Humphrey in 1968 to win a southern state (and Humphrey had won Texas largely because of Lyndon Johnson's control over the state) and the first president to have defeated an incumbent president who was previously elected to the presidency since Franklin Roosevelt defeated Herbert Hoover sixty-six years earlier.
 
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Deleted member 9338

Interesting the Ohio and New Jersey went with Pres Dole.
 
Interesting the Ohio and New Jersey went with Pres Dole.

Ohio's almost always leaned Republican (see my earlier exchange with Admiral Blake about how Dole accomplished something ITTL that no Republican president has yet done IOTL- win an election without winning Ohio) and the only reason Glenn won it ITTL's 1984 election is that he's from there.

As for New Jersey, the state leans Republican at this point ITTL (like OTL) but can be flipped either way. Glenn was able to appeal to enough swing voters to turn it blue while enough New Jerseyans were skeptical of another Democratic nominee with a southern drawl to give Dole a narrow victory there.

Inspired choice with Huddleston, he's not someone you see in many timelines.

Agreed, always nice to see unfamiliar faces.

Thanks. I don't know why, but for some reason I felt like he was the right Democrat to use for 1988. Also, if you notice that he's still a current senator before being elected that means that a certain man-turtle hybrid did not win election to the Senate in TTL's 1984.
 
This is lots of fun! Thank you. :) Just the right amount of meat every post.

Thank you!

I take it Mondale is now done completely?

For being running for president? Yes. He's accepted the Secretary of State role is the highest he'll go in Washington and plus, even if he hadn't, he would be 68 (69 on Inauguration Day 1997) if he ran for his fourth presidential bid in five election cycles. Blanchard, who is a 14 years younger, is considered the lead for the nomination as of now (1989) and he doesn't have the baggage of being considered a large reason why the Democrats lost in 1984.

Interesting and good choice of Huddleston. Always nice to see a Southern Democrat win.

Thanks.

Wow, you got me, I wasn't expecting that. Here I was, ready to call it for Mondale. :p

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Part 16: United Kingdom (1979-1991)
...The short gap in time between the 1979 and 1980 campaigns did not leave much time for Labour to consolidate their gains and set themselves up as a party ready to govern. Whitelaw and the Conservatives, almost immediately after negotiations with the Democrats and Ulster Unionsts fell through in 1979, began making the case that "a stable government is needed", setting themselves up as the party that was best to deliver a majority and stability to Britain. The Conservatives made the case that Labour was too extreme to win a majority, citing the overabundance of ex-Labourites running under the Democratic label compared to ex-Conservatives. Labour, who had been out of government for nearly five years by this point and who had not found a strong case to bring to the public, saw most of their 1979 gains erased.

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With a second majority, Whitelaw set about truly governing Britain again. The slow campaign of easing the stranglehold of trade unions over domestic industry and reducing budget deficits were the government's top priorities and the latter was making remarkable progress until President Bush of the United States convinced Whitelaw to contribute British forces to UNSFFI in 1981. While British troops were few on the ground in Iran (especially compared to their American counterparts), the deployment had the double effect of reversing much of the progress made towards getting Britain's fiscal house in order and gave other nations the perceptions that, between Iran and Northern Ireland, Britain had its military's hands full.

This was what persuaded the Argentinian military junta that Britain would not react if it acted on the country's long claim to the Falkland Islands (what they called the Islas Malvinas) and an invasion took place in late 1982, largely as part of a nationalistic distraction by the junta from Argentina's poor economy. The islands quickly fell and the junta's hoped for reaction did not occur. Whitelaw immediately organized a task force to retake the islands, all the while seeking aid from Bush and the neighboring state of Chile, whose government was increasingly annoyed at its non-democratic neighbors (including Argentina) of sending operatives in to Chile to kill their escaped political dissidents who had taken refuge in South America's sole long-term democracy.

Bush did not promise American support but told the prime minister the United States would not oppose retaking the islands and offered the United States as a mediator if Argentina would come to the table. Chile provided substantial covert aid to the British until the task force neared the island. Then, it launched a surprise attack, claiming as justification the Argentine junta's occupation of dispute territory in Tierra de Fuego and "numerous provocative attacks on Chilean soil" by Argentine operatives. The junta, which had not expected to deal with two attacks at once, quickly pulled a large part of its garrison from the Falklands to defend the Chilean border. The British task force arrived mid-pullout and the ensuing battle ended with only one ship escaping back to Argentina, with the rest of the occupying force either becoming casualties or being taken prisoner.

The junta attempted to begin mediation with Britain but the Chilean attacks and quick loss of the Falklands, combined with the dismal economic picture in Argentina that existed both during and prior to the Falklands conflict led to the junta falling from power and a democratic regime taking over. The new regime quickly imprisoned the former junta leaders and negotiated a peace treaty via the United States with Chile and Britain, ending the war.

Despite victory in the war seeing the Conservative shoot up in the polls Whitelaw did not call an election in 1983, believing that a new election campaign would possibly derail ongoing negotiations with the new Argentine government over a permanent solution regarding Argentina's claim on the Falklands and planned legislation to reform several local authorities, who were controlled by Labour and who had largely resisted the Conservatives' reforms over local funding.

When Whitelaw did call for new elections in 1984, he was able to point to the Falklands and the improving economy to offset fatigue with the Conservatives. Labour was not so lucky and the control by its vocal left-wing and the poor choice by its leader Michael Foot to include all resolutions arrived at in its party conference in the election manifesto (which included withdrawal from the European Economic Community, abolition of the House of Lords, unilateral nuclear disarmament, re-nationalization of recently privatized industries and a massive government drive for full employment) and saw a large swing from more centrist Labour voters to the Democrats. The division on the left and center-left saw Whitelaw's Conservatives win a strong majority.

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Following his fourth general election victory (and third majority government), Whitelaw privately made it clear he would not take his party into another election, feeling drained after leading the country for nine years in 1984. He decided to stay on until late 1985 when he announced his retirement upon the election of his successor. Whitelaw's term as lame-duck leader was marred by an attempt on his life by the Provisional IRA that only narrowly missed blowing him up at a Conservative retreat in Brighton in an attack that killed 12 people and wounded two dozen more.

The Conservatives elected Michael Heseltine to succeed Whitelaw and Heseltine became prime minister in early 1986. Whitelaw continued to follow Whitelaw's vision for the first year or so after becoming prime minister, but started to move away from Whitelaw's path in 1987. Notably eschewing continuing the trend of battling with the Labour local authorities, Heseltine instead focused his energy on attempting to get areas left behind by the end of coal mining in Wales, northern England and Scotland back on their feet with reinvestment campaigns and retraining programs that Whitelaw had only given relative pittances.

While reviving the Conservatives' moribund popularity in these areas, these programs caused dissension in the party, which allowed Labour and the Democrats to easily make the case that the Conservatives were divided and losing effective control of the government. This was partially true and Heseltine further enraged some of his supporters by making moves towards local devolution of some powers in an attempt to cut off the rise of nationalist parties in Wales and Scotland and his government's relaxation of some aspects of martial law in Northern Ireland as a gesture of good faith in negotiations with the Provisional IRA was attacked as coddling terrorists in some Conservative circles.

With the Conservatives in power continuously since 1975, Heseltine worked constantly to boost the party's numbers up and refused to call an election until parliament was about to end in 1989. Foot had left as Labour leader following the horrible 1984 performance and his replacement, Neil Kinnock, had made it his mission to remove the hard left from positions of power in the party. Kinnock's theme of "a time for change" was blunted by the fact that Heseltine himself had only been in power for less than three years when the election was due and due to the Democratic Party's new leader. David Penhaligon had taken over mid-parliament from David Steel and had quickly become a strong contender for most popular politician in parliament. Penhaligon's strategies and insights into politics revitalized a party that had been deflated from winning so few seats after coming only 6 percentage points behind Labour in 1984.

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The Conservatives lost their majority, but owing to Ulster Unionist support, retained effective control over parliament. While Labour gained more seats, the Democrats were the clear winner of the election, drawing even closer to the other two parties and doubling its amount of MPs.

Heseltine governed with the supply and confidence agreement with the Ulster Unionists through 1989 but knew that he would have to face an early election if he had any hope to continue in 10 Downing Street. Following by-election losses and defections to the Democratic bench, the Conservatives lost their ability to command a majority via supply and confidence and, unwilling to risk continuing on a minority, Heseltine reluctantly called for elections to take place in early 1991...
 
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Got on the thread just as you posted this, which was funny. It looks like the UK Democratic Party is improving just as their American counterparts.
 
Part 17: Canada (1979-1989)
...The first Progressive Conservative government in 16 years, Prime Minister Horner set about implementing a more austere budget than what Canadians had come to expect out of Ottawa, angering some Red Tories within his own party with his meager funding for several programs. While inflation began getting under control, the economy otherwise took a hit when the knock-on effects of the United States' removal from "unfavorite nation" status in several oil-exporting Middle Eastern nations and lessening of dependence on Canadian oil.

Horner's government succeeded in ignoring constitutional debates until the province of Quebec announced it would hold a referendum on independence in 1981. The outspoken Horner quickly became the great bogeyman of the "yes" campaign and his unpopularity in the province caused Ottawa at various points to fear that Quebec would vote for independence. Owing to unsatisfactory answers on several questions related to succession by the Parti Québécois ministers who had initiated the referendum as well as Trudeau returning to lead the "no" campaign, the vote failed 47% for independence to 53% against.

Horner was left weakened as a result. The Liberals, now under Allan MacEachen, seized upon Horner as being too divisive to lead Canada and made the case to voters when Horner called for new elections in 1983.

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The Liberals again won the popular vote (this time by a margin of three percent) but owing to vote inefficiency and the New Democrats also making healthy increases in the popular vote (but only gaining two seats), the Progressive Conservatives won a plurality and thus Horner was left in office. With only a six seat plurality, Horner was left in an incredibly weak position and unable to push for the promised reforms which the PCs had hoped would placate Quebec. Under threat of a MacEachen introducing a no-confidence motion that the NDP was sure to vote for, Horner called for new elections in the summer of 1984.

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The Liberals won a majority of twenty-one seats, and gave MacEachen a chance to implement his reforms that would stave off another Quebec referendum. The Liberal leader turned to constitutional repatriation and with Parti Québécois' defeat in the 1985 provincial elections, the major roadblock to repatriation was removed as the new premier, Liberal Pierre Paradis, quickly fell in line behind MacEachen's plan for patriation. Paradis was, although, the key factor in pushing MacEachen to grudgingly accept changing the constitution to grant provincial premiers the ability to choose half of the provincial senators in exchange for the unanimous passage. Canada formally patriated its constitution from Great Britain in 1986, with Quebec independentist sentiment muted by the new provincial powers to appoint senators as well as the constitutional protection of bilingualism in Canada.

By the time Canadians were again asked to vote for their MPs, the main political issue became a proposed free trade agreement with the United States, proposed by the Dole Administration. The Progressive Conservatives, now led by John Crosbie, were vocal proponents while the New Democrats under Ed Broadbent were strong opponents. MacEachen, who had good relations with President Dole and did not wish to spite his American counterpart, dodged the issue of whether he supported free trade, and the Liberal Party as a whole followed his example, with some ministers coming out as supporting it while others opposed.

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The Liberals' confused and non-committed answer to the free-trade question led to a loss of their majority and the Progressive Conservatives' win in the popular vote. MacEachen only continued to be a resident of 24 Sussex Drive thanks to Quebec, who only returned one non-Liberal MP out of 75 total (largely as a result of the constitutional patriation), with Quebec MPs making up over one-half of his entire parliamentary caucus.

Ironically, the entire free trade debate was rendered moot a month later when Dole lost his bid for re-election to Walter D. Huddleston. It quickly became apparent that Huddleston was opposed to free trade and thus the matter was dropped when the new president took office in January 1989...
 
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