Fear Not the Revolution, Habibi: A Middle East Timeline

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Israel, Palestine, and the land in between

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“The Palestinian state, befitting the circumstances of its creation, closely resembled its Ba’athist allies. However, the idiosyncrasies of Palestinian politics and the economic and social situation of the Palestinian people after Yasser Arafat’s declaration of al-Nasr made this resemblance superficial. While the structures of governance resembled the Ba’athist model of a three-legged institutional stool of Army, Party and State supporting the monarchical powers of a President-for-life, in practice they were heavily factionalized. Institutions reflected the distribution of power rather than creating it, particularly in the Palestinian state’s early days…

Life in Palestine, with respite from an ongoing war with Israel and peace with its neighbours, was improving. Foreign aid funded much of the country’s reconstruction. Most aid came from the Soviet Union and its allies and satellites. Syria, while receiving substantial aid of its own, pitched in, providing discounted military equipment along with temporary shelter and transit aid for tens of thousands of Palestinian refugees fleeing Lebanon. Iraq, which had rescued many civilians from starvation and thirst during the war through their contributions of humanitarian aid, began to pour oil money into Palestine, contributing aid and investment. Iraq’s state oil company quickly concluded talks with Arafat’s new government to build an oil pipeline through Palestine to the port of Aqaba. This, along with a proposed pipeline through Syria, would allow alternate export routes for Iraqi oil production…

From the day of victory, patriotic Palestinians in the diaspora, especially from Europe, sent millions of dollars to the Palestinian government through the purchase of ‘solidarity bonds’. Other Palestinians in the diaspora, swept up in the fervor of victory, uprooted their lives and moved to the new Palestinian state. Immigrants from as far afield as the United States, France and Honduras immigrated to Palestine, where their skills and hard currency proved useful in boosting the economy. These individuals, called ‘returnees’, were loathed, admired and loved in roughly equal parts by the rest of the Palestinian refugee population, who had lived in sweltering, squalid camps rather than modern Western cities for their exile…

The situation of the returnees and the issues of foreign aid are a microcosm of the basic structure of the Palestinian regime. For example, foreign policy in the Palestinian Arab Republic was, constitutionally, the responsibility of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, who was directly answerable to the President. Meanwhile, the military was the responsibility of the National Defence Committee, chaired by the Defence Minister and including the President, Prime Minister, military chiefs of staff, the heads of military and civilian intelligence agencies, and the Chairman of the PLO. The cabinet and the Foreign Affairs and Liberation Committees of the National Popular Assembly played a role in reviewing the country’s foreign policy and military decisions and direction, but the Ministers in charge were meant to have near-absolute control, with the confidence of the President.

However, in reality, Palestinian foreign policy was highly fragmented. This was due to the long tradition of Arab states (and others) of sponsoring Palestinian nationalist organizations and paramilitary groups, to act as a tool of foreign policy. While the creation of a Palestinian state produced an entity that could legitimately claim to speak for the Palestinians as a nation, organizations with sponsors remained semi-autonomous actors for years to come. Factions such as the Iraqi-funded Arab Liberation Front (which was hastily incorporated into the PLO) or the PFLP, DFLP (with their extensive Soviet funding) were able to maintain their own networks and diplomatic-representative structures separate from the Fatah-dominated PLO, supported by Syria. Similarly, units within the military, the Palestine Liberation Forces, were generally divided by political allegiance within the Palestinian national body. That is, PFLP fighters tended to serve in PFLP-commanded units, Fatah fighters served in Fatah units, and so on.

Only Arafat’s political skill prevented outright contradictory policy or potentially violent conflict between armed factions from breaking out from this intense division. Instead, under Arafat and his chief foreign advisor, Khaled al-Hassan, Palestinian policy was a mess of compromise and rent seeking from all of Palestine’s allies. While Arafat could impose his will if absolutely necessary, he generally turned a blind eye to the proclivities of the various Palestinian guerrilla organizations, whether in taking money for their own patronage networks or acting on their own within the red lines of Palestinian foreign policy. This produced an inefficient state reliant on patronage, weak military cohesion, and phenomena such as the export of Palestinian combatants to various revolutionary conflicts throughout the world…”

Gerald O’Connor. Fragmentation and Institutionalization in Palestinian Politics (1970-1985). Middle East Politics 39:3 (1990). 336-359


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“After the Six-Day War, Israelis found themselves the surprised rulers of tremendous swathes of new territory. Israel had quintupled the land area under its control with almost no planning for such an eventuality beyond a military occupation. Making the situation even more problematic was the presence of large numbers of hostile Arabs on this new territory. Between 1967 and 1971, tentative settlement of the territories by Israelis, motivated by messianic fervour on the religious right and Zionist gusto on the left, began. Meanwhile, the state lacked a consistent policy towards the territory, leaving the army largely in charge. While various proposals were bandied about, the nation’s splintered politics made the status quo the only realistic option.

With the Special Period and the subsequent landslide victory of Yigal Allon and Tekumah in 1971, there was finally an actor who could push through a real solution. This came in the form of the Ze’evi Plan, named for Major-General Rehavam Ze’evi, whose proposal for a ‘state of Ishmael’ formed the basis for the plan. The plan was implemented through a series of parliamentary acts, executive decrees and military actions over the course of 1972 and 1973, and its structure forms the basis of much of Israeli policy today.

The Ze’evi Plan and its successor in the Allon Doctrine were based in a particular understanding of the Israeli-Arab conflict. The conflict was seen as rooted in Arab intolerance to a Jewish state in their midst, but the proponents of the Plan saw the Arab states as fundamentally rational. Use of the stick and carrot, with a powerful Israeli military to enforce consequences and a realist foreign policy geared towards playing the regional ‘game’, would ensure Israeli security. The belief in rationality and potential cooperation with Arab actors extended to territory controlled by Israel. In areas that the Ze’evi Plan covered, Israel relied on the creation of Arab protectorates, with sectors of Arab society aligning themselves with Israel in a patrimonial relationship in order to maintain or gain power. While revisionists have attempted to extend this framework to the treatment of Israel’s Arab citizens or even all of Israel, this article will only discuss the three regions that are traditionally viewed as subject to the assumptions: The Golan Heights, the Sinai Peninsula and the West Bank of the Jordan River.

1: The Golan Heights

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The Golan Heights, captured from Syria during the Six-Day War, was in some ways the easiest region for the Allon government to implement their vision for a few reasons. First, the geopolitical consequences of their actions were reduced by Israel’s relationship with Syria. While the two countries had signed an armistice, Israeli strategic planners considered Syria their leading antagonist and believed that Israel would need to occupy the valuable Golan region indefinitely.

As well, the population generally held either ambivalent or favourable attitudes towards Israel. While the Six-Day War had produced between 80,000 and 110,000 Syrian refugees, the 1970 war had produced tens of thousands of refugees flowing in the other direction. Mostly Druze, Circassians and Bedouins from the Hauran and Hermon regions, these refugees found shelter in sweltering camps in the Israeli-held Golan Heights. The IDF forces that held the Heights treated these refugees with a mix of suspicion for their Syrian origin and, particularly towards the Druze militiamen who had fought alongside Israeli forces in their invasion of Syria, admiration. Allon, who had long favoured Israeli support for a Druze state and had been the architect of the effort to recruit Druze fighters, jumped at this chance to reward a group he described as “Israel’s greatest ally among the Arab peoples.”

In March 1972, the Knesset passed the Golan Heights Law, creating the new administrative category of the “Autonomous Administrative Territory” (AAT). This type of region would be governed under a mix of Israeli civil and military law, along with customary and religious courts for most lower-level disputes and family law. The Golan Heights Territorial Council, a parliamentary body with consultative and limited legislative powers, was created, with elections to be held in September of that year. The Council oversaw civil administration, local courts, and the Golan Territorial Guard, a paramilitary force staffed largely by Druze militiamen who were responsible for maintaining internal and border security alongside the IDF garrison. The Council was funded largely through Israeli grants and some level of local tax power, and Jewish Israeli settlement was limited by law to a yearly number, based on approval by the Territorial Council

Refugees from Syria who lived in the Golan were not made into Israeli citizens. Rather, they kept their pre-existing Syrian citizenship while gaining AAT documentation that granted them permanent residency and voting rights in the Golan along with automatic work permits and temporary residence in Israel. Most Druze refugees, settling among their brethren in the Heights, remained in place, while most Circassians immigrated to Israeli cities, particularly Jerusalem. Bedouins, though migrated en-masse to the West Bank, where the new administration promised them a new beginning…

2. The Sinai Peninsula​

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Unlike the Golan Heights, many Israelis believed that the Sinai might one day be handed back to Egypt in exchange for a peace agreement. While this had not prevented settlement of the region, the expanses of desert were less hospitable and thus less desirable to Israeli migrants seeking to build kibbutzim or religious communities. However, due to the presence of the Abu Rudeis oil fields, the region was strategically important. Thus, under the Sinai Law of March 1972, Israeli military administration and commercial law would govern the Sinai Desert Autonomous Administrative Territory, along with formalized traditional Bedouin dispute resolution systems and religious courts.

The Sinai region’s natives were primarily Bedouin, many of whom lived the traditional, semi-nomadic Bedouin lifestyle. Israel sought to gain the support of these communities, primarily by ruling with as light a hand as possible. The Israeli military governor acted largely as a mediator over clan disputes, and soon had a full-time negotiator appointed to his staff for this purpose. The Territorial Council, which was dominated by nonpartisan clan representatives, was largely toothless by choice, ceding most of its power to individual clan leaders. The Bedouin were allowed to maintain, as long as they passed Israeli security inspection, large stocks of weaponry including assault rifles and light machineguns. IDF recruiters worked among the Sinai Bedouin, promising adventure and good jobs to the recruits as well as favourable treatment of clans that contributed large numbers of young men to their sheikhs. Bedouin militias soon became a core element of Israeli strategy in battling Egyptian raids against Israeli positions…

3. The West Bank​

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The West Bank of the Jordan River was the most complex region for the Allon government to grapple with, and one where their decision was, in many ways, the most inspired. The region contained strategic hills protecting Israel’s densely populated central corridor from assault from the east, as well as access to the vital Jordan River valley. The region had more inhabitants than the Golan and Sinai put together, with nearly 700,000 Arab residents in 1970, predominantly identifying as Palestinians. The region contained sizeable urban centers such as Ramallah, Nablus, Hebron and Bethlehem, and included parts of Greater Jerusalem. This inhabited land was also the location of numerous Jewish historical and religious sites, such as the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron. The region, known as Judea and Samaria to many on the Right, beckoned with a siren call to religious Zionists and some members of the left, who mounted a settlement campaign with the tacit consent of the state.

Arguments within the security cabinet over how to resolve the issue of the West Bank were intense, nearly sparking a walkout by Yisrael Galili and a collapse in the governing coalition at the height of the discussions. However, Galili and the remainder of Mapai were eventually corralled into acceptance of a modified and perfected plan, proposed by Foreign Minister Yitzhak Rabin. This plan would be implemented through a mix of executive decrees and foreign policy maneuvering, and consolidated through subsequent treaties.

This first of these actions actually took place during the war. With the PLO victorious in the East Bank and riots in the West Bank, Ze'evi launched a harsh campaign to suppress the unrest in the occupied territories. This led to the expulsion of anyone suspected of links to the PLO, as well as their immediate families. This included nearly 50,000 people. As well, anyone who had voluntarily fled the West Bank, either during the Six-Day War or the repression of 1970, was barred from reentry. This made the population far smaller and more docile, a necessary element of the Ze'evi Plan.

On 12 April 1972, after secret negotiations with the exiled King Hassan I of Jordan failed, a group of Israeli-supported Palestinian and Bedouin leaders gathered in Nablus and issued the Nablus Declaration. This document, which would act as a temporary constitution, declared King Hassan's claim to the throne of Jordan vacant, due to his cowardice in the face of the Palestinian invasion. In his place, 30-year old Prince Ali bin Al Nayef, first cousin of Hassan and the late King Hussein, was declared King of Jordan; Ali had fled across the river to the West Bank during the Palestinian invasion, and was subsequently detained by Israeli intelligence. The country's temporary capital would be at Nablus, and the monarchy would restricted to a ceremonial position under a constitution.

Israel recognized this group, calling itself the Restoration Council, as the legitimate government of Jordan, and immediately entered into negotiations with them. Three weeks later, under the terms of a new agreement, a peace treaty was signed between Jordan and Israel, with mutual recognition. Jordan granted Israel’s military temporary rights to extensive access, particularly along the Palestinian border, and vowed to ‘resist aggression that threatens the security of Jordan and Israel.’ Subsequent treaties in October 1972 and January 1973 would formalize this situation, with the IDF maintaining full control of the Jordan Valley and the Dead Sea coast, along with far-reaching access rights in the remainder of the territory. Jordan also recognized the Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem and the settlement of Gush Etzion, although the boundaries of what constituted Jerusalem excluded outlying villages that might become suburbs at a later date. Jordanians were also given full access and a role in governance of the city’s Muslim and Christian holy sites. For potential settlers, this announcement was terrifying. However, they were mollified by the Jordanian government’s announcement that it would legalize all current Israeli settlements and allow limited annual Israeli immigration to Hebron and other 'holy sites'. The new government also privately promised that restrictions on Jewish land ownership and immigration would be lifted as soon as possible. Religious Zionists began to migrate to historically important areas such as Hebron, bringing their families. In the Jordan Valley, volunteers, usually linked closely to the leftist establishment, were granted free housing and tax exemptions in exchange for near-permanent military duty, with these soldiers responsible for helping secure the Jordan Valley from Palestinian infiltration.

The new Jordanian regime was, in its early days, run almost entirely by Israeli military and civilian advisors. These advisors constructed a government with an ostensibly democratic constitution, but one that maintained largely unaccountable security services and a concentration of power in the office of the Prime Minister. The country, under its constitution, had no army. Instead, the paramilitary Jordanian National Guard became the country’s primary security force. Staffed disproportionately by Bedouins and led by Israeli-trained volunteer officers, the National Guard was the strong right hand of the Israeli-backed administration in Nablus. Its intelligence wing, the Internal Security Directorate, was a feared agency that operated with no oversight beyond its Israeli handlers. Economically, the government relied on Israeli transfers, although with peace and Israeli investment, the economy began to grow rapidly. Between the growing economy, the heavy Israeli and Jordanian security presence, and the co-option of many notables who feared Arafat’s leftism as much or more as subservience to the Jews, the new Jordan was secure, for now…”

Ariel Hundert. The Zionist Raj: The Ze’evi Plan and Israeli Security. Middle East Politics 39:3 (1990). 198-215
 
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Wowzah...

I assume the "State of Jordan" currently claims the East Bank. Seen as how its rather transparently an Israeli puppet that allows Israeli settlement, I suspect this is going to send OTL Arab conspiracy theories about "Greater Israel" into the stratosphere...
 

yboxman

Banned
Interesting. Looks like TTLs Israel is trying to pull a PRK http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Republic_of_Kampuchea in the West Bank.

I feel truely embaressed to nitpick given the excellent ideas but:
a. While limiting the annexation of East Jerusalem to the actual municipal borders of Jordanian Jerusalem (which include roughly 20% of East Jerusalem and 25% of the Arab population), or even just the old city, would be much, much better for Israel, by 1970 that ship had already sailed. The annexation was carried out in June 1967 and was passed as a "fundamental law" which requires a supermajority to overturn.

Accordingly, "De-annexing" it is a much bigger political headache than just not annexing it to begin with. This is not to say it would be impossible- just complicated. With the exception of the Jewish quater in the Old city, the first Jewish neighborhoods in Greater East Jerusalem (outside the Jordanian municipal limits) were laid down in late 1970. I suppose the Purim war might nix their development but still, canceling the plans is a political headache. Contracts and money had already changed hands, and plans would be likely to be accelerated during the Begin Interregnum.

b. The Bedouin of the West Bank are concentrated in The Jordan valley and the Mount Hebron region in the south. The latter are by far the majority- and they belong to entirely different clans than those of the East Bank Bedouin.

As far as I am aware neither group was incorporated into the Transjordanian political-security establishment and any "issues" they may have with sedentary Palestinians are purely local.

More generally, Bedouins in the Middle East had, at least in 1970, little or no sense of themselves as possessing a common secretarian-political identity. So the Idea of Syrian Bedouin resetteling in the West Bank while holding a grudge against the local Palestinians for what Arafat did to East Bank Bedouins, or even trasferring their rage for expulsion from Syria is a bit too far out.

BTW, is the inclusion of Circassians and Bedouin miliitas in the Israeli occupation of South Syria a retro-correction?

If so, consider that the Bedouin of the Laja were generally tributaries of the Druze Atrash clan and would tend to follow their lead. True, they live further West and will come under greater Israeli pressure but betraying Jadid while Atrash stays loyal would be untypical.

Now all this is not to say that a consistent differential treatement and political empowerment by Israel of bedouin Vs sedentary Arabs in the West Bank might not lead to the gradual development of polarized identities but it will take some time.

c. Zeevi's concept of "Ishmael" was a state that would be limited to the Northern, more populated West Bank (Samaria). http://www.haaretz.co.il/misc/1.1225319 In other words, an area with almost no native Bedouin population. View attachment 231375 .

d. Jordanian law (prior to 1948) mandates a death penalty on anyone selling land to Jews and prohibits permanent residence of Jews in the Kingdom. If "Jordan" defines itself as a legal heir to the kingdom of TransJordan then legalizing this will be very problematic. Maybe a special permit for Hebron (if Jordan includes the southern West Bank) and a few other religously significant sites (that might be presented as a quid pro-quo for "Jordanian" presence in Jerusalem). But a wholesale permit, even if limited by a maximum number per year? It will blow any shred of legitimacy for the puppet government and effectively prevent Arabs from working within it's bueacracy.

Sure, plenty of Palestinians worked for the Israeli "civil administration" until the first Intifada- but they were either working for a still functioning Jordanian civil service or else were working for an openly declared military occupation. this is not the case here.

e.Many of the West Bank elite, be they Bedouin Jordanian civil servants stranded there or "Palestinian" landlords and merchants, may view the PLO as a menace. But if Arafat comes out a winner, even a titular one, from the war then working for Israel or it's puppet government will be much more difficult than OTL. the threat of being executed as a collaborator will simply be much greater than any gains they can make by working with Israel.

The only way to eliminate that threat is to carry out a policy of expulsions towards anyone with links to the PLO- and their immediate family as well. If this is done during the Purim war it probably flys under the radar of international and domestic attention. Zeevi may even do that on his own initiative if the government is paralyzed.

f. The "settlers" are not really an Issue or a lobby group in 1970. Can't stress this enough- the only settlers are in the Jordan Valley and Gush etzion and they number under 2000. The opposition to Alon Plan OTL was "whole land of Israel" ideology, it was not based on a population which had an actual vested interest in the plan. That's why the plan could overcome opposition- though it could not overcome Arab rejection.


Bottom line: I think a "Jordanian" Bedouin-settler dominated PRK equivalent in the West Bank would best be achieved if Hassan or one of his brothers/cousins takes up the offer to become king of the West Bank. Failing that, in order for the arrangement to be more than a legal fiction, you would need Israel to permit the Bedouin refugees from Southern Jordan to resettle in the West Bank while simultaneously carrying out wholesale expulsions of any Palestinians involved or sympathizing with any of the PLO factions.



Future Jewish settlements should be limited to specific locales, including possibly areas (The jordan valley?) which are directly annexed to Israel. If not, then an unofficial development of Jews moving into "Jordan" after private purchase of land would cause less of a backlash than a government blessing for the situation.

Even with all that, "Jordan" still looks more like a legal fiction than a functioning puppet state. But if Israeli policy is consistent over several decades and no large scale conflicts rock the region it might develop into a real state, possibly under international pressure as occurred with the PRK OTL.

A few other questions:
1. What about Gaza? Zeevi's plan was limited to the West Bank. He supposadely advocated a separate state for Gaza. If the Sinai is not returned to Egypt within a decade there might be pressure to transfer parts of the Sinai to Gaza to relieve overcrowding.

2. Will West Bankers be given work permits for Israel? Or will Israeli companies, private or state, establish factories within the West Bank? If not, then expect most of every younger generation to immigrate elsewhere. The West bank simply cannot support itself economically absent massive industrialization or foreign subsidies- it's population was stagnant between 1948-1967 in spite of high fertility.

If the second (factories in West Bank) takes place then I would excpect an earlier Israeli transition to more high tech industry, accompanied by social unrest as job providing low tech factories such as the textile plants become uncompetitive (which is one reason this policy was not enacted OTL).

3. will portions of the West Bank be annexed to Israel? The Alon Plan envisaged the Jordan valley, dead sea coast, Gush Etzion and the 443 road to Jerusalem being annexed and the rest returned to Jordan (which would also recieve Gaza).

Zeevi's Ishmael plan saw the southern West Bank (Judaea) being annexed as well.

4. OTL the 200,000 West Bankers who fled during the 1967 war mostly returned after 1970. What happens to them TTL? This represents almost a third of the pre-1967 WB population.

5. OTL Nasser, and then Sadat, tried forming a PLO analog in the Sinai. It never took off. Might Israel pre-empt the Idea by encouraging the formation of a Bedouin Autonomous zone in the Sinai? If it does, then returning the Sinai outright to Egypt becomes more difficult. But it also offers a compromise solution that may be easier for both sides to accept- an autonomous demillitarized buffer state, possibly under Egyptian Suzereinty.

6. What happens to Ariel Sharon? What did he do during the war?

7. One other thought. We earlier discussed the possibility of Israel coming to rely on nuclear power. If Israel maintains control of the Sinai but as asattelite state populated mostly by Bedouin then the factors acting against that approach in Israel proper (high population density accompanied by danger of terror attack leading to fallout) may be less relavent if the power plant is locating in the Western SInai, around pelusium. Any damage to such a reactor would screw Egypt over much worse than it would Israel. Such a reactor could be used to power Desalinization plants to irrigate the Northern Sinai.
 
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Very interesting solutions- and very much different to OTL. I like the term Zionist Raj as well...

Wow, that is most certainly creative. Excellent.

Superb Alt History at its best!

That's a better long-term peace deal than any in OTL, impressive.

Swapping PLO and Jordan around ? That's weird ! :D

Thanks!! :D

Wowzah...

I assume the "State of Jordan" currently claims the East Bank. Seen as how its rather transparently an Israeli puppet that allows Israeli settlement, I suspect this is going to send OTL Arab conspiracy theories about "Greater Israel" into the stratosphere...

Yeah, this isn't going to do anything for Arab-Israeli relations, at least in the short term.

Interesting. Looks like TTLs Israel is trying to pull a PRK http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Republic_of_Kampuchea in the West Bank.

I feel truly embarrassed to nitpick given the excellent ideas but:
a. While limiting the annexation of East Jerusalem to the actual municipal borders of Jordanian Jerusalem (which include roughly 20% of East Jerusalem and 25% of the Arab population), or even just the old city, would be much, much better for Israel, by 1970 that ship had already sailed. The annexation was carried out in June 1967 and was passed as a "fundamental law" which requires a supermajority to overturn.

Accordingly, "De-annexing" it is a much bigger political headache than just not annexing it to begin with. This is not to say it would be impossible- just complicated. With the exception of the Jewish quater in the Old city, the first Jewish neighborhoods in Greater East Jerusalem (outside the Jordanian municipal limits) were laid down in late 1970. I suppose the Purim war might nix their development but still, canceling the plans is a political headache. Contracts and money had already changed hands, and plans would be likely to be accelerated during the Begin Interregnum.

I see. That will be retconned, although beyond the settlements that already exist around Jerusalem, they are not going to be expanding areas under direct Israeli rule.

b. The Bedouin of the West Bank are concentrated in The Jordan valley and the Mount Hebron region in the south. The latter are by far the majority- and they belong to entirely different clans than those of the East Bank Bedouin.

As far as I am aware neither group was incorporated into the Transjordanian political-security establishment and any "issues" they may have with sedentary Palestinians are purely local.

More generally, Bedouins in the Middle East had, at least in 1970, little or no sense of themselves as possessing a common secretarian-political identity. So the Idea of Syrian Bedouin resetteling in the West Bank while holding a grudge against the local Palestinians for what Arafat did to East Bank Bedouins, or even trasferring their rage for expulsion from Syria is a bit too far out.

BTW, is the inclusion of Circassians and Bedouin miliitas in the Israeli occupation of South Syria a retro-correction?

If so, consider that the Bedouin of the Laja were generally tributaries of the Druze Atrash clan and would tend to follow their lead. True, they live further West and will come under greater Israeli pressure but betraying Jadid while Atrash stays loyal would be untypical.

Now all this is not to say that a consistent differential treatement and political empowerment by Israel of bedouin Vs sedentary Arabs in the West Bank might not lead to the gradual development of polarized identities but it will take some time.

The separate Bedouin political identity hasn't really taken hold, but it was my impression that there is both a sense of longstanding social conflict between the semi-nomadic herders and sedentary farmers which could be stoked into a conflict, as well as a weaker sense of Palestinian nationalism among the Bedouin. For that reason, Allon is making the same calculation that the Hashemites in Jordan made about the East Bank clans.

As to the Syrian Bedouins and Circassians, they were generally neutral in the fighting in the Purim War, and there are not very many of them to begin with. They were expelled by Jadid after the war basically to clear the Hauran and Hermon for his Ba'athist settlements. The Bedouins who are going to the West Bank are mostly going due to offers of land and employment, primarily in the country's security forces. I'll retconn the "revenge" aspect though.

c. Zeevi's concept of "Ishmael" was a state that would be limited to the Northern, more populated West Bank (Samaria). http://www.haaretz.co.il/misc/1.1225319 In other words, an area with almost no native Bedouin population. View attachment 231375 .

d. Jordanian law (prior to 1948) mandates a death penalty on anyone selling land to Jews and prohibits permanent residence of Jews in the Kingdom. If "Jordan" defines itself as a legal heir to the kingdom of TransJordan then legalizing this will be very problematic. Maybe a special permit for Hebron (if Jordan includes the southern West Bank) and a few other religously significant sites (that might be presented as a quid pro-quo for "Jordanian" presence in Jerusalem). But a wholesale permit, even if limited by a maximum number per year? It will blow any shred of legitimacy for the puppet government and effectively prevent Arabs from working within it's bureaucracy.

Sure, plenty of Palestinians worked for the Israeli "civil administration" until the first Intifada- but they were either working for a still functioning Jordanian civil service or else were working for an openly declared military occupation. this is not the case here.

e.Many of the West Bank elite, be they Bedouin Jordanian civil servants stranded there or "Palestinian" landlords and merchants, may view the PLO as a menace. But if Arafat comes out a winner, even a titular one, from the war then working for Israel or it's puppet government will be much more difficult than OTL. the threat of being executed as a collaborator will simply be much greater than any gains they can make by working with Israel.

The only way to eliminate that threat is to carry out a policy of expulsions towards anyone with links to the PLO- and their immediate family as well. If this is done during the Purim war it probably flys under the radar of international and domestic attention. Zeevi may even do that on his own initiative if the government is paralyzed.

f. The "settlers" are not really an Issue or a lobby group in 1970. Can't stress this enough- the only settlers are in the Jordan Valley and Gush etzion and they number under 2000. The opposition to Alon Plan OTL was "whole land of Israel" ideology, it was not based on a population which had an actual vested interest in the plan. That's why the plan could overcome opposition- though it could not overcome Arab rejection.

Future Jewish settlements should be limited to specific locales, including possibly areas (The jordan valley?) which are directly annexed to Israel. If not, then an unofficial development of Jews moving into "Jordan" after private purchase of land would cause less of a backlash than a government blessing for the situation.

Even with all that, "Jordan" still looks more like a legal fiction than a functioning puppet state. But if Israeli policy is consistent over several decades and no large scale conflicts rock the region it might develop into a real state, possibly under international pressure as occurred with the PRK OTL.

Bottom line: I think a "Jordanian" Bedouin-settler dominated PRK equivalent in the West Bank would best be achieved if Hassan or one of his brothers/cousins takes up the offer to become king of the West Bank. Failing that, in order for the arrangement to be more than a legal fiction, you would need Israel to permit the Bedouin refugees from Southern Jordan to resettle in the West Bank while simultaneously carrying out wholesale expulsions of any Palestinians involved or sympathizing with any of the PLO factions.

I can rework this a little bit, although legalized Jewish immigration to 'Jordan' is key for the TL. I think I'll take your 'holy sites' idea, with the pre-existing settlements being legalized as well, as Jordanian townships. In the medium term though, Jewish investment, extensive propaganda about 'friendship with the sons of Abraham,' and the consolidation of the status-quo will allow the abolition on land sales and the beginning of more extensive private settlement. Don't discount some Arab-Israelis moving to Jordan as well; the borders between the two states are going to be relatively fluid.

As to the king, that makes a lot of sense, and is not a major change. I think I'll bring in one of the sons of Naif bin Abdullah, Prince Ali. I'll retconn that he fled across the border to the West Bank and went into hiding, then was picked up by the Shin Bet. His power will be basically non-existent though; the Prime Minister's office will have by far the most power.

Finally, as to dealing with the PLO, Ze'evi definitely made efforts to expel everyone he could during the Purim War. How many people do you think were linked to the PLO? I took population estimates from the time and subtracted around 50,000 people, but if you think there were more, I can simply reduce population figures in line with that.

Still, I think you might be underestimating the sustainability of an Israeli puppet regime that allows extensive settlement, etc. (see the PA, for example :cool: ). Israel has just crushed a revolt in the West Bank and has a large-scale military presence there. As well, Arafat is looking pretty scary to the traditional elite and Bedouins, considering he just ethnically cleansed the East Bank Bedouin, executed quite a few 'collaborators' and is (only partly) justifiably seen as a Ba'athist puppet. For a least some notables, it might appear better to be hung for a sheep as a lamb, if that makes any sense. And, as far as I can tell, West Bankers at this point were very politically mobilized, with traditional elites still holding a great deal of political authority. If Jewish settlers are not intrusive, the police are Arab (even if they get their training and equipment from the Jews) and the economy starts growing quickly (compared to the devastation across the river), the population could stay relatively quiet, or at least produce a substantial population of harkis.



A few other questions:
1. What about Gaza? Zeevi's plan was limited to the West Bank. He supposadely advocated a separate state for Gaza. If the Sinai is not returned to Egypt within a decade there might be pressure to transfer parts of the Sinai to Gaza to relieve overcrowding.

I knew I forgot something! :eek:

I'll address Gaza in the next Egypt update. In short though, my thoughts on Gaza are basically that Allon wants to annex the region, and is going to encourage immigration from Gaza to the West Bank and the Sinai as much as possible. Gaza is too close to Israel's coastal strip to do otherwise. If that is unrealistic, another option is for the region to become an AAT, with the local Arab elite being granted some privileges in exchange for keeping the place quiet. A third option would be to actually create a state (the 'Gazan Republic'?) under Israeli domination, with a similar deal as the West Bank.

2. Will West Bankers be given work permits for Israel? Or will Israeli companies, private or state, establish factories within the West Bank? If not, then expect most of every younger generation to immigrate elsewhere. The West bank simply cannot support itself economically absent massive industrialization or foreign subsidies- it's population was stagnant between 1948-1967 in spite of high fertility.

If the second (factories in West Bank) takes place then I would excpect an earlier Israeli transition to more high tech industry, accompanied by social unrest as job providing low tech factories such as the textile plants become uncompetitive (which is one reason this policy was not enacted OTL).

Both, actually. The West Bank is too useful a source of cheap labour to leave untouched. Allon wants industrial development in Israel, and is going to push hard to transition to high-tech and heavier industry. Arms manufacturing is going to make up a large part of that, although they will need other options. Industrialization won't be massive, but expect most Israeli-owned textile plants to be located in Ramallah and Nablus by the mid 80s. That said, there will be somewhat high unemployment (particularly among women) in the West Bank, as well as outmigration. The periodic expulsion of PLO-linked (or just troublesome) individuals and families to Palestine will help keep the pot lid secure.

3. will portions of the West Bank be annexed to Israel? The Alon Plan envisaged the Jordan valley, dead sea coast, Gush Etzion and the 443 road to Jerusalem being annexed and the rest returned to Jordan (which would also recieve Gaza).

Zeevi's Ishmael plan saw the southern West Bank (Judaea) being annexed as well.

None of the West Bank will be annexed other than what has already been annexed (although Gush Etzion should probably be tacked on to Israel). That doesn't rule out future border changes though, particularly along the Green Line and in the Jordan Valley.

4. OTL the 200,000 West Bankers who fled during the 1967 war mostly returned after 1970. What happens to them TTL? This represents almost a third of the pre-1967 WB population.

Anyone who left is not getting back in. After all, they have a Palestinian state to settle in. While Israel doesn't recognize the government in Amman (speaking of which: might they want to move the capital to Irbid, which doesn't have strong associations with the monarchy?), the mere presence of an entity with a legitimate claim to represent Palestinians is going to change the conflict immensely.

5. OTL Nasser, and then Sadat, tried forming a PLO analog in the Sinai. It never took off. Might Israel pre-empt the Idea by encouraging the formation of a Bedouin Autonomous zone in the Sinai? If it does, then returning the Sinai outright to Egypt becomes more difficult. But it also offers a compromise solution that may be easier for both sides to accept- an autonomous demillitarized buffer state, possibly under Egyptian Suzereinty.

That's basically what happened. The Bedouin clans are getting Israeli guns, a bit of cash (mostly in remittances) and are otherwise being left to their own devices. For the Sinai Bedouin, that suits them just fine. The long-term status of the Sinai is going to be interesting. I'm definitely considering a Bedouin buffer state in the Sinai (with the Canal Zone obviously fully handed back to Egypt), particularly as the development of a Bedouin 'nationalism' is an important, if minor, part of the TL. Remember the Party of Freedom? ;)

6. What happens to Ariel Sharon? What did he do during the war?

He was commander on the Southern front, so he didn't get up to much. He might consider going into politics, but his right-wing views are not going to be particularly accepted under Allon. Sharon will probably end up staying in the military, and if he can keep his politics to himself, he's a contender for the Chief of Staff position.

7. One other thought. We earlier discussed the possibility of Israel coming to rely on nuclear power. If Israel maintains control of the Sinai but as a sattelite state populated mostly by Bedouin then the factors acting against that approach in Israel proper (high population density accompanied by danger of terror attack leading to fallout) may be less relavent if the power plant is locating in the Western SInai, around pelusium. Any damage to such a reactor would screw Egypt over much worse than it would Israel. Such a reactor could be used to power Desalinization plants to irrigate the Northern Sinai.

Nuclear power is still a possibility, but the Sinai isn't that secure. There is always the possibility that they will hand it back to Egypt in one form or another, and the Bedouin could get restless. Israel will probably stick to other forms of power generation, but research into solar panels could be something that a late-term Allon jumps on :p
 

yboxman

Banned
The separate Bedouin political identity hasn't really taken hold, but it was my impression that there is both a sense of longstanding social conflict between the semi-nomadic herders and sedentary farmers which could be stoked into a conflict,

There is- but it is local. So while a Halhoul Bedoin might have an axe to grind with the sedentary dwellers of Hebron he won't carry the grudge to those living in Bethlehm, Ramallah, Nablus or Jenin. and since there ARE no Bedouin living (much) north of Hebron or West of the Jordan valley the majority of the Palestinians have no Bedouin neighbors with whom they are antagonized.

as well as a weaker sense of Palestinian nationalism among the Bedouin.

That much is true. In 1970 the sense is pretty much non-existent. Islamic identity has a weak hold, Pan-Arab sentiment even weaker. palestinian? non existent. But that makes them apolitical and bribable (from an Israeli POV), not eager allies.

For that reason, Allon is making the same calculation that the Hashemites in Jordan made about the East Bank clans.

That's a good calculation and given time a State centered identity might develop. But in the case of Transjordan (Or the Alawites in SYria or any number of other examples) that identity was grafted on religious and clan legitimacy which will be much weaker for any puppet government installed by Israel.

I can rework this a little bit, although legalized Jewish immigration to 'Jordan' is key for the TL. I think I'll take your 'holy sites' idea, with the pre-existing settlements being legalized as well, as Jordanian townships. In the medium term though, Jewish investment, extensive propaganda about 'friendship with the sons of Abraham,' and the consolidation of the status-quo will allow the abolition on land sales and the beginning of more extensive private settlement.

Well, if it's crucial, my advice is incremental development rather than wholesale legitimization on the outset (sort of like OTL). If Israelis are setting up factories in Palestinian townships than they may also set up Isaraeli worker and specialist similliar to those set up in OTLs Jordan between 1994-2000. that could be the nucleus for "settlements" of a different sort than occured OTL, accompanied by the leftist settlements in the Jordan valley and religous settlements in Hebron, Beit-El, Etc.

Don't discount some Arab-Israelis moving to Jordan as well; the borders between the two states are going to be relatively fluid.

That might be very interesting. OTL, a largish Israeli Arab community exists in East Jerusalem. Many came there to work for the municipality in servicing the Palestinians in East Jerusalem and stayed afterwards as intermediataries. In 1970 the number of Israeli Arabs with university education is still low but it is much higher than that which exists in the West bank, so they would make a better and more reliable manpower pool to fill the buecratic needs of "Jordan".



Finally, as to dealing with the PLO, Ze'evi definitely made efforts to expel everyone he could during the Purim War. How many people do you think were linked to the PLO? I took population estimates from the time and subtracted around 50,000 people, but if you think there were more, I can simply reduce population figures in line with that.

Well, the post war october 1967 census showed 600,000 (down from 730,000 in 1961) http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/1967_census/vol_1_intro_tab_i.pdf. I sort of had the impression that few of the 1967 refugees returned prior to the post black september detante with Jordan but this site shows has the 1970 census at 677,000 which means more returned than I thought. http://israelipalestinian.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000636#chart5.

How many can Zeevi link to the PLO? well, that's a tough question to answer 175,000 were arrested during the first Intifada. that represents 15% or so of the Palestinian male population. Few, however, were actual PLO members. However, the circumstances ITTL are very different from OTL-Arafat has just won a major coup and is openly instigating rebellion directly rather than just riding a spontaneous outbreak so I would guess that affiliation with the PLO skyrockets. Also, in 1970 the Israeli public is less sensitive to human rights issues than 1987 and there is a bloody war going on. Given that, 50,000-100,000 expulsions and semi voluntary migration (of dependents, nationalists, etc) during the 1970-1971 period seems about right. In addition, Jericho (which had a population of about 15,000) might be evacuated during the war. Most of the expelles will be young men which will have a profound effect on WB demographics-and on Israeli Arab demographics. Expect the Negev Bedouin to import many more second wives.

So all in all the post war WB population will probably be around 580,000.

How large is outmigration after the situation stabilizes at the frontier? that partly depends on how effective the threat of expulsion is at supressing open dissent.

I suspect it would be fairly effective so after 1975 or so expulsions will probably be no more than a few hundred a year at most unless a major clash occurs. Outmigration due to frusturation and fear of expulsion might be larger.

Still, I think you might be underestimating the sustainability of an Israeli puppet regime that allows extensive settlement, etc. (see the PA, for example :cool: ).

the PA does not"allow" settlements- the context is quite different and not very sustainable to boot.

the population could stay relatively quiet, or at least produce a substantial population of harkis.

Harkis, probably yes. But the WB Bedouin lack the education or tradition to produce civil servants for the first decade or so. You would need either the elites to feel secure in entering the civil service or EB civil servants to choose "Jordan" over Saudi Arabia.


I knew I forgot something! :eek:

I'll address Gaza in the next Egypt update. In short though, my thoughts on Gaza are basically that Allon wants to annex the region, and is going to encourage immigration from Gaza to the West Bank and the Sinai as much as possible.

Annexing Gaza???!!!:eek: Look the idea did come up during the 1956 war- but it was immediately dumped and for good cause. Too little land, too many people.

Gaza is too close to Israel's coastal strip to do otherwise.

It's actually much farther away from the main cities than the WB is and is much easier isolated from arms than the WB- if the Sinai is controlled. If anything is going to be annexed on security grounds it would be the western fringe of the West Bank. More land, more water, right on the edge of the coastal cities, and less people. OTL the strategy was to build a cordon of settlements on it's border with the Sinai. For a short period those in the Gazan refugee camps were encouraged to resettle in the West Bank but that policy was dumped fairly quickly (if it is not adopted ITTL then the WB population is lower and less radicalized).

If that is unrealistic, another option is for the region to become an AAT, with the local Arab elite being granted some privileges in exchange for keeping the place quiet. A third option would be to actually create a state (the 'Gazan Republic'?) under Israeli domination, with a similar deal as the West Bank.

Either option would probably be more realistic.





(speaking of which: might they want to move the capital to Irbid, which doesn't have strong associations with the monarchy?),

I think that by 1970 Amman had the highest concentration of Palestinians in the EB (capitals in third world countries tend to attract the population). Irbid is more EB native. Of course, it is also closer to Syria and to good farmland and water. That might be a factor.

Remember the Party of Freedom? ;)

Can't wait to see how that turns out.

He was commander on the Southern front, so he didn't get up to much. He might consider going into politics, but his right-wing views are not going to be particularly accepted under Allon. Sharon will probably end up staying in the military, and if he can keep his politics to himself, he's a contender for the Chief of Staff position.

He would also have something to say about any solution which is applied to Gaza. OTL, he was very effective in breaking up the post war insurgency. I think it was over by 1970 but i'm not sure.

EDIT- correction. The Gaza situation was percieved as reaching crisis proportions only in 1971 after a 15 year old threw a hand grenade into the car of an Israeli family shopping in Gaza city, killing two of their children http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_the_Aroyo_children. That incident is probably butterflied away. In all liklihood the "no intervention" policy would be dropped during the Purim war and Ariel Sharon would carry out the clearances operations earlier, possibly during the Purim war. The fence around Gaza would probably also be built earlier.

Israel will probably stick to other forms of power generation, but research into solar panels could be something that a late-term Allon jumps on :p

Hmm, if I understand correctly Solar panels are only becoming cost effective now after advances in a broad range of material science fields. If Israel does invest heavily in R&D in the 1970s this might push development forward by a few years but it will be a long, long time before Israel reaps any KJs from it.
 
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Hmm, if I understand correctly Solar panels are only becoming cost effective now after advances in a broad range of material science fields. If Israel does invest heavily in R&D in the 1970s this might push development forward by a few years but it will be a long, long time before Israel reaps any KJs from it.
This is true (actually, you didn't include Chinese solar panel manufacturing spin-up, which is another important factor in the low cost of panels now), but not the whole story. There was limited investment in solar panels for quite a long while due to their poor cost-effectiveness compared to conventional energy sources and a certain ideological hostility, so a concerted effort could have rather large knock-on effects. Even just pushing manufacturing and installation (the latter is actually now the largest cost center) could reap benefits with '70s or '80s panels.

Additionally, the cost-effectiveness is situational--for Israel, with no hydroelectricity, no domestic nuclear due to the security concerns you and Azander cite, no domestic coal, and limited domestic gas and oil, and a potentially poor foreign situation for replacing any of those, solar is likely to be far more relatively cost-effective and cost-effective at a far lower level of development than for, say, France, particularly when compounded with the good solar climate. So they don't need to push as far to get something that will be an adequate replacement for their existing electricity sources, and anything past that is just gravy (that is, makes them more relatively competitive).
 
Wow... this Middle East is looking so much different than OTL.

I have to say I find the idea of Israel peppering its periphery with small puppet states vastly intriguing: this rump Jordan (which ironically can probably maintain its name), talk of the Druze running themselves in the Golan, a Bedouin state in Sinai, a Gazan Republic... actually that last one interests me most; it would effectively be a city state. That could open up very interesting paths of development.
 
There is- but it is local. So while a Halhoul Bedoin might have an axe to grind with the sedentary dwellers of Hebron he won't carry the grudge to those living in Bethlehm, Ramallah, Nablus or Jenin. and since there ARE no Bedouin living (much) north of Hebron or West of the Jordan valley the majority of the Palestinians have no Bedouin neighbors with whom they are antagonized.

That much is true. In 1970 the sense is pretty much non-existent. Islamic identity has a weak hold, Pan-Arab sentiment even weaker. palestinian? non existent. But that makes them apolitical and bribable (from an Israeli POV), not eager allies.

That's a good calculation and given time a State centered identity might develop. But in the case of Transjordan (Or the Alawites in Syria or any number of other examples) that identity was grafted on religious and clan legitimacy which will be much weaker for any puppet government installed by Israel.

So, basically, it will be easier for Israel to recruit Bedouins into their establishment through patronage, with some sort of Bedouin nationalist identity developing over time through that? That makes sense. Government employment (specifically in the security sector) will be especially important for Bedouin as Jordan industrializes and modernizes; absent integration into the modern economy, their communities will only be able to sustain themselves as a subsidized class through their participation in the security state.

Well, if it's crucial, my advice is incremental development rather than wholesale legitimization on the outset (sort of like OTL). If Israelis are setting up factories in Palestinian townships than they may also set up Isaraeli worker and specialist similliar to those set up in OTLs Jordan between 1994-2000. that could be the nucleus for "settlements" of a different sort than occured OTL, accompanied by the leftist settlements in the Jordan valley and religous settlements in Hebron, Beit-El, Etc.

Makes sense, that's what will happen I guess, although the pace of in-migration will probably pick up. Outside of the Jordan Valley, there aren't going to be significant settlements resembling OTL settlements anywhere in the West Bank. Jewish-Arab mixed communities might appear, especially for upper-middle class Jordanians and Israeli expats in the business community (factory managers, etc.)

That might be very interesting. OTL, a largish Israeli Arab community exists in East Jerusalem. Many came there to work for the municipality in servicing the Palestinians in East Jerusalem and stayed afterwards as intermediataries. In 1970 the number of Israeli Arabs with university education is still low but it is much higher than that which exists in the West bank, so they would make a better and more reliable manpower pool to fill the buecratic needs of "Jordan".

Some university-educated Arab Israelis are going to move in, although I think the bureaucratic job shortage won't be quite so bad once Jordanian refugees from Saudi Arabia start moving in. The Israelis are okay with educated East Bankers, and if the choice of these refugees is either time in a sweltering refugee camp in the Saudi desert or a job as a collaborator, most are likely going to take the latter.

Well, the post war october 1967 census showed 600,000 (down from 730,000 in 1961) http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/1967_census/vol_1_intro_tab_i.pdf. I sort of had the impression that few of the 1967 refugees returned prior to the post black september detante with Jordan but this site shows has the 1970 census at 677,000 which means more returned than I thought. http://israelipalestinian.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000636#chart5.

How many can Zeevi link to the PLO? well, that's a tough question to answer 175,000 were arrested during the first Intifada. that represents 15% or so of the Palestinian male population. Few, however, were actual PLO members. However, the circumstances ITTL are very different from OTL-Arafat has just won a major coup and is openly instigating rebellion directly rather than just riding a spontaneous outbreak so I would guess that affiliation with the PLO skyrockets. Also, in 1970 the Israeli public is less sensitive to human rights issues than 1987 and there is a bloody war going on. Given that, 50,000-100,000 expulsions and semi voluntary migration (of dependents, nationalists, etc) during the 1970-1971 period seems about right. In addition, Jericho (which had a population of about 15,000) might be evacuated during the war. Most of the expelles will be young men which will have a profound effect on WB demographics-and on Israeli Arab demographics. Expect the Negev Bedouin to import many more second wives.

So all in all the post war WB population will probably be around 580,000.

How large is outmigration after the situation stabilizes at the frontier? that partly depends on how effective the threat of expulsion is at supressing open dissent.

I suspect it would be fairly effective so after 1975 or so expulsions will probably be no more than a few hundred a year at most unless a major clash occurs. Outmigration due to frusturation and fear of expulsion might be larger.

Those numbers sounds reasonable.

the PA does not"allow" settlements- the context is quite different and not very sustainable to boot.

Oh, I know, I was just making a joke.

Harkis, probably yes. But the WB Bedouin lack the education or tradition to produce civil servants for the first decade or so. You would need either the elites to feel secure in entering the civil service or EB civil servants to choose "Jordan" over Saudi Arabia.

It will mostly be East Bankers, Arab Israelis and Jewish Israeli 'advisors' sectioned off from the civil service and army on hardship-posting pay. As the new state consolidates and economic development comes, there will be quite a few people who see their best bet as staying quiet and trying to move up the ladder in the situation that exists. Most people aren't revolutionaries, and if there is an Arab face on their government and some reasonable level of prosperity (especially if the economic news from Palestine is poor), plenty of people will make their peace with the system.


Annexing Gaza???!!!:eek: Look the idea did come up during the 1956 war- but it was immediately dumped and for good cause. Too little land, too many people.

It's actually much farther away from the main cities than the WB is and is much easier isolated from arms than the WB- if the Sinai is controlled. If anything is going to be annexed on security grounds it would be the western fringe of the West Bank. More land, more water, right on the edge of the coastal cities, and less people. OTL the strategy was to build a cordon of settlements on it's border with the Sinai. For a short period those in the Gazan refugee camps were encouraged to resettle in the West Bank but that policy was dumped fairly quickly (if it is not adopted ITTL then the WB population is lower and less radicalized).

Either option would probably be more realistic.

I'm leaning towards a Gazan republic, with the plan being to support local elites and keep military control along with a fence. Troublemakers will be handed over to the Israelis and expelled across the Jordan.

I think that by 1970 Amman had the highest concentration of Palestinians in the EB (capitals in third world countries tend to attract the population). Irbid is more EB native. Of course, it is also closer to Syria and to good farmland and water. That might be a factor.

Makes sense, the 'temporary' capital will stay in Amman, while the claimed capital is obviously al-Quds.

He would also have something to say about any solution which is applied to Gaza. OTL, he was very effective in breaking up the post war insurgency. I think it was over by 1970 but i'm not sure.

EDIT- correction. The Gaza situation was percieved as reaching crisis proportions only in 1971 after a 15 year old threw a hand grenade into the car of an Israeli family shopping in Gaza city, killing two of their children http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_the_Aroyo_children. That incident is probably butterflied away. In all liklihood the "no intervention" policy would be dropped during the Purim war and Ariel Sharon would carry out the clearances operations earlier, possibly during the Purim war. The fence around Gaza would probably also be built earlier.

As the Israeli army is pretty tied up during the Purim War, the clearances won't happen until there is an incident. A Gazan state will probably look something like OTL's West Bank, with a lot of labour migration to Israel and the rest of the Middle East, although there will be industrial development.

Hmm, if I understand correctly Solar panels are only becoming cost effective now after advances in a broad range of material science fields. If Israel does invest heavily in R&D in the 1970s this might push development forward by a few years but it will be a long, long time before Israel reaps any KJs from it.

This is true (actually, you didn't include Chinese solar panel manufacturing spin-up, which is another important factor in the low cost of panels now), but not the whole story. There was limited investment in solar panels for quite a long while due to their poor cost-effectiveness compared to conventional energy sources and a certain ideological hostility, so a concerted effort could have rather large knock-on effects. Even just pushing manufacturing and installation (the latter is actually now the largest cost center) could reap benefits with '70s or '80s panels.

Additionally, the cost-effectiveness is situational--for Israel, with no hydroelectricity, no domestic nuclear due to the security concerns you and Azander cite, no domestic coal, and limited domestic gas and oil, and a potentially poor foreign situation for replacing any of those, solar is likely to be far more relatively cost-effective and cost-effective at a far lower level of development than for, say, France, particularly when compounded with the good solar climate. So they don't need to push as far to get something that will be an adequate replacement for their existing electricity sources, and anything past that is just gravy (that is, makes them more relatively competitive).

Interesting. I'm guessing solar panel development will get pushed forward then, perhaps about 10 or so years. Israel might be known as the "Green Energy Nation" instead of the "Startup Nation" for that reason.

Wow... this Middle East is looking so much different than OTL.

I have to say I find the idea of Israel peppering its periphery with small puppet states vastly intriguing: this rump Jordan (which ironically can probably maintain its name), talk of the Druze running themselves in the Golan, a Bedouin state in Sinai, a Gazan Republic... actually that last one interests me most; it would effectively be a city state. That could open up very interesting paths of development.

Yeah, a Gazan puppet republic or lightly ruled AAT (there isn't much of a difference in practice, TBH) would be a good centre for low-wage industrial development. However, the Israelis are not going to focus too much energy on this, leading to more labour migration. Gaza could be very prosperous long term, especially if it tries to sell itself as a Las Vegas of the Arab World (something that would be possible in the case of a bloody Lebanese Civil War). Any thoughts on how realistic a possibility that is? I've heard Gazan society is very conservative.

Also, update in the next couple days: On Egypt and Gaza, some internal politics of the Allon regime (specifically the establishment of the Security Police and the new Public Security Act) and, finally, the 1972 U.S. Presidential election.
 

yboxman

Banned
Also, update in the next couple days: On Egypt and Gaza, some internal politics of the Allon regime (specifically the establishment of the Security Police and the new Public Security Act) and, finally, the 1972 U.S. Presidential election.

Can't wait. :)

One more question(s)- how are the Saudis treating the East Bank refugees? How many of them are there anyway?

Are the Saudis allowing them to work, keeping them in armed camps along the border, or granting them citizenship and encouraging them to resettle in the Eastern oil province (and dilute the Shiite majority there)?

It might be "interesting" to see how East Bank oil workers interact with Palestinian gulf migrants (of whom there were many even before 1973 and the oil price hike. Arafat included).
 
I love your timeline, it's really great.

I was wondering what sort of diplomatic recognition the Jordanian Entity (As some call OTL Jordan) might have? I assume Arafat would get the UN seat, since that's a General Assembly decision. I think you said the West refused to recognise Palestine, at least for now, but have they accepted an alternate successor government? Noone except the UK ever recognised the Jordanian annexation of the West Bank, which seems to complicate matters.
 
Cant wait for the next update, I will be very interested in knowing what is happening with the rest of the world as well.
 
Can't wait. :)

One more question(s)- how are the Saudis treating the East Bank refugees? How many of them are there anyway?

Are the Saudis allowing them to work, keeping them in armed camps along the border, or granting them citizenship and encouraging them to resettle in the Eastern oil province (and dilute the Shiite majority there)?

It might be "interesting" to see how East Bank oil workers interact with Palestinian gulf migrants (of whom there were many even before 1973 and the oil price hike. Arafat included).

The East Bank refugees are going to be split. The Israelis are making a serious effort to recruit former civil servants to help administrate the new territory. Most refugees though will remain in Saudi Arabia. Some will resettle in the Eastern Province, although they will not gain Saudi citizenship. Others, mostly Bedouin, will remain in "refugee camps" but will start to integrate into related Bedouin tribes in the border regions. Those camps, as well as the Sinai and West Bank, will be the epicenters of the emerging Bedouin 'nationalist' movement.

I love your timeline, it's really great.

I was wondering what sort of diplomatic recognition the Jordanian Entity (As some call OTL Jordan) might have? I assume Arafat would get the UN seat, since that's a General Assembly decision. I think you said the West refused to recognise Palestine, at least for now, but have they accepted an alternate successor government? Noone except the UK ever recognised the Jordanian annexation of the West Bank, which seems to complicate matters.

Thanks!

So, basically, (East) Palestine will get the UN seat and will be recognized by most of the non-aligned countries and the Soviet bloc. The West, other than Israel and a few other states, will recognize King Hassan's government-in-exile. Israel will recognize their puppet Jordanian government, and will have recognized Jordan's claim to the West Bank.

Cant wait for the next update, I will be very interested in knowing what is happening with the rest of the world as well.

Thanks!

Change of plan, and apologies for the wait. The next update will cover Egypt and Gaza, as well as something that I want to explore and which may become more consequential later in the TL, Central America :cool:. I'm not sure when the next update will be though, I'm working on it tonight but it could be another few days.

EDIT: Another change of plan; I'm doing the United States in this update, Central America in the next one.
 
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Egypt and the United States Presidential Campaign, 1972

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“The destruction of the left following Khaled Mohieddine’s coup attempt sharply altered Egyptian politics. However, the resulting state of modern Egypt was shaped by the regime’s great, shifting brotherly rivalry between President Hussein el-Shafei and Prime Minister Abdul Latif al-Baghdadi. Shafei, a populist with sympathy towards the left and the Muslim Brotherhood, and Baghdadi, a liberal nationalist who favoured business, worked together to build Egypt for twenty years. While they rarely agreed on policy, their many compromises and mutual love of the nation built Egypt into the prosperous and democratic state it is today…

By the end of 1970, Egypt’s economy was screaming. Soaring oil prices, combined with the government’s provision of subsidized consumer goods, caused a recession and a major balance-of-payments crisis for Egypt. Saudi subsidies lessened the pain, but Egypt was forced to raise the price of bread and gasoline, among others. In combination with the economic dislocations created by the state’s Infitah program of privatization and a reduction in trade barriers, the economic crisis caused riots in Cairo and Alexandria. While the national police and the paramilitary Egyptian Popular Army quelled demonstrations and a return to growth following the end of the oil embargo sated popular anger, the rapid reforms pushed by Baghdadi and his allies in the Treasury and Planning ministries were brought into question. As Shafei toured the country promising reform and social justice while Baghdadi remained in the capital and vowed to continue with al-infitah, whispers of fresh political turmoil began to seep into the streets.

Perhaps it was the threat of renewed struggle that brought them together, but Shafei and Baghdadi pulled back from the brink of conflict. According to declassified government archives and personal diaries since discovered, the first of the many compromises of the Great Twenty Years was forged over several days at the Presidential Palace. Baghdadi agreed to cede the Treasury ministry to Aziz Sidqi, an ally of Shafei, and the government implemented modifications of the reform program. Economic liberalization would continue, but at a slower pace and with more focus paid to managing the transition. Consumer subsidies, which had proven suddenly and exorbitantly expensive for the state during the recent crisis, were reduced in size and scope and replaced with guaranteed-work programs, the marshaling of private aid networks and investment in job creation. The progressive tax system was kept in place, and new efforts were made to crack down on evaders and fraud. State industries, marked for rapidly privatization, were sold off much more slowly and selectively. Quite a few state firms saw the sale of large numbers of shares to their related union chapters, backed by state credit. However, for future development, the state offered tax exemptions and discounted land to domestic and foreign companies willing to establish firms. Heavy infrastructure investment continued, with road, rail and power networks improved. All of this though cost money…

Egypt’s shift in foreign policy was one born out of necessity as much as ideology. Egypt was isolated from the socialist world after its firm split with the Soviet Union and domestic leftists. Meanwhile, although it sought to improve relations, Egypt remained at odds with the West due to its conflict with Israel and anti-imperialist position. Yet, the Arab world’s conflicts were not entirely those of the Cold War. Conservative Arab regimes in the Gulf and especially Libya saw Egypt, purged of its socialist streak and opening to the world, as an ideal partner. Newly warm relations took some time to develop, but by April 1971, with the first private meeting between President el-Shafei and the kings of Saudi Arabia and Libya, marked the completion of a major transition. Saudi and Libyan oil money flowed into Egypt, purchasing stakes in businesses and Egyptian development bonds. The greatest symbol of this period, the King Hasan Libyan-Egyptian Friendship Pipeline terminating in the large al-Funduq refinery complex near Alexandria, was funded entirely by Libyan petroleum…

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The changes in foreign and domestic policy were not restricted only to realignment towards the Gulf and economic liberalization; instead, they went deeper, to the soul of the regime. Egypt, with the death of Nasser, the rise of Jadid and Egypt’s non-participation in the Syrian War, had decisively shifted away from Arab nationalism as a justifying ideology for the ruling elite. The new ideology was a blend of Egyptian nationalist rhetoric, with some reference to Egypt as a part of the Arab whole. However, Egyptian particularism, aimed at characteristics seen as positive by the new regime (commercial, orderly, etc.) was heavily emphasized, as were Egypt’s historical triumphs. Islam, a major part of Egypt’s heritage, was also stressed, although the Islam propagated by the Egyptian state was relatively tolerant and cosmopolitan in nature. Shafei in particular encouraged this, highlighting his devout Islamic practice. The Muslin Brotherhood, increasingly included by the regime, was a major part of this. The Supreme Guide of the Brothers acted as an advisor to the President on religious affairs, and two imams from the more progressive wing of the Brotherhood were appointed to senior positions at al-Azhar’s Center for Islamic Research.

This new Egyptian nationalism had a major effect on foreign policy. Egypt was unable to fight Israel alone, and with the split with the Ba’athist states seemingly irrevocable, attempting to retake the Sinai was an exercise in futility. Rather, Egypt reduced its raids on Israeli forces, which had briefly increased during the Syrian War, and played a waiting game, calling for international pressure on Israel to return the Sinai to Egyptian sovereignty. At the same time, Egypt tacitly accepted the situation in Gaza, which, unlike the West Bank and the Israeli puppet state of ‘Jordan’ remained under Israeli occupation as the so-called Gaza Autonomous Administrative Territory. The Egyptian regime had no lost love for the Ba’athist-aligned Palestinians, and would soon host a small subset of anti-Arafat conservatives in Cairo. Gaza, traditionally an Egyptian responsibility, would remain under firm Israeli suzerainty.

To the south and west though, Egyptian policy was much more aggressive. Egypt, an African state as much as an Arab one, saw its destiny in engaging with the continent. Egyptian-Libyan relations were strong, later evolving into a formal alliance. Relations with Sudan, on the other hand, were extremely cold. Egypt disdained the Communist government in Khartoum, while the Sudanese regime saw Egypt as their greatest enemy, a former colonial master and reactionary stronghold. The presence of Sudanese opposition groups, a combination of purged regime officials and members of the Ansar religious brotherhood, on Egyptian soil only exacerbated this problem. As border tensions grew and refugees continued to stream out of Sudan, some Egyptian politicians began to quietly push for an intervention to the south. While both Shafei and Baghdadi resisted this pressure, events would draw them into a maelstrom…

Farouk Abul-Magd. The Egyptians: A Contemporary History. Cairo: The American University in Cairo Press (1999). Print.


***


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“The United States presidential election of 1972 was the most divisive in the nation’s history, pitting social groups against each other and producing a victor who, while he could claim to represent the great “silent majority” of the American people, was beset on all sides by critics and placed in charge of a nation deeply divided by competing visions of its future at home and its role in the world.

This division could be most easily seen on the Democratic side of the field. While President Richard Nixon was unpopular with large segments of his party, and there were rumors that popular California governor Ronald Reagan might challenge the sitting president from the right, there was no serious Republican primary. On the Democratic side though, many candidates competed for their party’s favour, attacking each other in a bloody struggle for political supremacy.

The campaign quickly broke down into three main dynamics. The party’s left wing, sustained by student groups and anti-Vietnam activists, quickly fell in behind their main standard-bearer, Senator George McGovern of South Dakota. A prairie populist and strong advocate against the war, McGovern aimed to pick up states through mobilizing grassroots support and taking advantage of the rules changes implemented following the 1968 primary campaign. On the right, Alabama Governor George Wallace and his brand of anti-Washington conservative populism looked clear to dominate the South, although many had quiet doubts about his ability to win outside of Dixie. Shirley Chisholm, Congresswoman from New York, ran as the first African-American female candidate. The traditional establishment’s support was divided among a number of candidates, including Hubert Humphrey, Edmund Muskie, Henry “Scoop” Jackson, Vance Hartke and others…

Ed Muskie dominated the beginning of the campaign. A handsome, charismatic Senator from Maine, Muskie was seen as a steady hand at the wheel that could unite liberals, moderates and the left against Nixon. Polls showed that Muskie, the Democrats’ vice-presidential candidate in 1968, would defeat Nixon by a five-point margin. However, the Democrats faced a surprise at the Iowa caucuses. While an establishment candidate was expected to overwhelmingly win, George McGovern managed to make a strong showing on the back of a divided establishment, catapulting him to national attention. Then, Muskie, who had won the Iowa caucuses, faced unexpected challenges in New Hampshire. A letter to the editor, printed in the Manchester Union-Leader, claimed that Muskie had made disparaging remarks about French-Canadians, and criticized his wife Jane. Muskie’s response, delivered during a snowstorm was emotional, with Muskie bursting into tears twice. This display, which shook Muskie’s even-keeled image, caused many voters to defect to McGovern and Humphrey, who had begun campaigning for the nomination in earnest at the urging of party elders. Muskie’s campaign would die an ignominious death by early May.

Florida was the next major primary, the first in the Deep South. George Wallace was expected to make a strong showing, but he shocked the party establishment, winning nearly every country and over 38% of the vote. Humphrey was a distant second by a narrow margin, with Scoop Jackson coming third. Both Wallace and McGovern would continue to make serious gains throughout the campaign, eating away at the support of Humphrey and Muskie and building blocks of their own to bargain at the convention, or even take it all…

By May, the field had tightened to three candidates with a real shot of winning: Humphrey, Wallace and McGovern. Most competitors has suspended their campaigns, with a few hanging on for protest, vanity, or to wrangle extra power at a brokered convention. McGovern, taking advantage of student activism and new party rules that distributed delegates to candidates on a proportional basis, steadily racked up support while Wallace ate into the white working class base of the liberal establishment even outside of the South, in places like Maryland and Indiana. Wallace was barely slowed down by an assassination attempt on May 15, when Arthur Bremer attempted to shoot him at a campaign rally in Maryland. The shots narrowly missed Wallace, killing a rally attendee behind him.

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By the time of the convention, there was no clear nominee. McGovern had pulled ahead, but two major delegations, Illinois and California, were disputed. McGovern claimed that Illinois, whose delegation was controlled by Mayor Richard Daley and the Democratic political machine, did not conform to rules mandating that certain percentages of the delegates had to be minorities or women. The credentials committee, under pressure from the party establishment, gave the delegation a chance to reform its composition. The California delegation, on the other hand, had been selected by a “winner-takes-all” approach. This went against the reforms that McGovern had implemented after 1968, but ironically he proved to be the beneficiary here, winning by only 8 percentage points but taking all of California’s large delegation. The “Stop McGovern” campaign, led by Georgia governor Jimmy Carter, countered that the delegation should be divided under the party’s policy. As with the credentials committee, McGovern lost the fight. Angered, McGovern is noted as saying, “Classic American liberals; democracy, except when it doesn’t work for them.” His words would be met by actions only a few days later…

It took two days of bargaining and a walkout from the floor of the convention, but a Democratic presidential ticket finally emerged on July 13. With a standing ovation from the remaining delegates, Democratic nominee and former Vice-President Hubert Humphrey gave a speech calling for unity against President Nixon in the coming election. In his speech, Humphrey announced his selection of his running mate, Senator Henry Jackson. Meant to appeal to the more moderate Wallace voters through his opposition to bussing, and his strong foreign policy credentials, Jackson attacked Nixon for “lackadaisical attitude towards the security of the free world and scandalous neglect of democratic principles abroad.” Yet, the floor of the convention was half-empty, and the leading candidate entering the convention was nowhere to be found.

George McGovern and Hubert Humphrey had been comrades in the Senate, with Humphrey serving as McGovern’s mentor in the early days of his career. They worked together on a number of issues, particularly feeding the poor and developing rural America. While McGovern had challenged Humphrey in 1968 for the presidential nomination after Robert Kennedy’s death, their relationship had remained intact. After the hard-fought and bloody primary of 1972 though, it was in tatters. McGovern blamed Humphrey for a campaign of dirty tricks and scare tactics, with McGovern called the “candidate of amnesty, acid and abortion.” Meanwhile, Humphrey saw McGovern as a threat to the stability of the Democratic coalition. While he admired him as a man, he saw him as a political catastrophe in the waiting, particularly with Nixon weak and stalled in the White House. When Humphrey had finally wrangled the necessary votes from delegations and other candidates to be the nominee, McGovern had cried foul and walked out, leading his delegates with him.

Still, despite that, the battleground was marked and the players selected for what would be one of the most consequential elections of the century…”


***


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“The 1972 United States presidential election did not produce a fractured political situation, but rather showcased it. Four parties competed for the presidency: the Democrats under Humphrey and their liberal establishment; the Republicans led by Richard Nixon, the avatar of Middle America; George Wallace and the American Independent Party, his army of the disaffected white working class; and George McGovern’s Peace and Freedom Party, a disparate coalition of students, minorities and activists fighting to overthrow the existing social and political order for a new progressive future. The latter two parties failed to gain access the ballot in many states, but all fought for their starkly different visions of America’s future…

Hubert Humphrey had, in many ways, the hardest campaign to fight. While he had taken up the mantle of the New Deal coalition, the once-solid alliance of the white working class, intellectuals, students, city machines and ethnic minorities was shattered. The white working and middle class was increasingly sympathetic to the anti-Washington, conservative populism of Wallace and Nixon. Meanwhile, minorities and students, angered by the ongoing Vietnam War and the failure of the government to actualize economic equality in addition to civil rights legislation, turned to radicalism. At the same time, the Democrats had the advantage of being the country’s natural governing party, as the default choice for voters unwilling to contemplate any of the other parties in the White House.

Humphrey and the Democrats firmly embraced this dynamic, attempting to thread the needle closely, proposing positive policies rejected by the Nixon administration and attacking them on Nixon’s ‘reckless’ foreign policy, while promising ‘balance,’ ‘fairness,’ and a government that would ‘fight for every American, rich and poor, Negro and white, young and old, and heal the nation.” Vice-Presidential nominee Scoop Jackson was instrumental in this strategy, attacking Nixon for being weak on the spread of Soviet power in the Middle East while launching an “irresponsible and inhumane campaign in Kampuchea to cover up his failing strategy in Vietnam.” Their campaign called for an end to bussing, to be replaced by reforms and federal funding to “empower communities and local governments with the resources to educate their children to the highest standard.” With this middle-of-the-road approach, and with union endorsements and support secure, Humphrey had the strength to take on Richard Nixon for a second time…

Nixon, the quintessential political survivor, would not give up his office without a fight. Attacks against Humphrey began almost immediately, recycling ‘law and order’ rhetoric from his 1968 campaign against Humphrey. Aiming to mobilize the right and with Vice-President Spiro Agnew acting as a partisan attack dog, Nixon declared that Humphrey would “allow thugs to roam the streets, legalize dope, and break the back of hardworking Americans with new taxes to fund harebrained government schemes.” As Agnew repeated over and over, the Democrats were the party of “socialism, surrender and soft on crime.” In addition to their public tactics of mobilization, Nixon’s machine engaged in covert behavior. Illegal wiretapping, break-ins and leafleting occurred, under the watchful eye of the “Plumbers” unit of the Committee to Re-elect the President. While much of this activity occurred without Nixon’s explicit permission, and most was only discovered after the campaign ended, the July 13 break-in at the Watergate Hotel would dog the Nixon throughout the campaign from the issues at hand…

McGovern, who chose civil rights leader James L. Farmer as his running mate shortly after receiving the nomination from the small, social-democratic Peace and Freedom Party, aimed to build a movement more than he aimed to be President. Mobilizing students and other radicals, McGovern crisscrossed the country to sell his message of immediate withdrawal from Vietnam, a massive reduction in military spending, and a guaranteed minimum income for all Americans. Freed from the constraints of the Democratic Party, McGovern called for radical solutions, proclaiming his movement a ‘wake-up call’ and openly addressing his opponents as “blind to the rot in American life.” McGovern was popular, and introduced a new generation of students and activists to grassroots populist politics. However, his campaign faced difficulties in funding, ballot access, and periodically outright repression from local governments…

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The Wallace campaign also believed that there was decay in America, but that this rot came from the hippies, yippies and other radicals who “hated America and her values.” Working from his heartland in the South, Wallace aimed to overthrow the existing order. Decrying Nixon and Humphrey as “Tweedledee versus Tweedledum,” he promised “to give government back to the people and let communities and individuals decide for themselves.” Wallace’s running mate in 1968, former Air Force general Curtis LeMay, had weighed his campaign down with his intense support for nuclear weapons. This time, he selected former Secretary of Agriculture Ezra Taft Benson for the vice-presidential slot, aiming to expand his reach outside of the Deep South. Wallace campaigned as hard or harder against Nixon as Humphrey, attacking him for his implementation of the ‘tyrannical’ Philadelphia Plan and calling for amendments to the Constitution banning affirmative action and bussing. This ate into both Democratic and Republican support, turning many states such as Indiana, Maryland and even Illinois from two to three-cornered races…

By the end of the campaign, America was politically exhausted. Negative campaigning had driven many to the polls out of fear of what one party or another would do to America, while others stayed home, too disgusted to vote. In many states, the margin of victory was extraordinarily narrow, with a few thousand or even hundred votes deciding the fate of the states’ electors. However, in the end, the result was clear. Despite winning just over 40% of the popular vote, Hubert Humphrey triumphed with 298 electoral votes. The so-called “Wallace factor” and the murmurings of scandal had undermined Nixon in key states. Meanwhile, the endorsements by important minority political leaders of Humphrey caused huge numbers of McGovern supporters, who had been polling near 6% in the days before the election, voted strategically for the Democrats. This delivered states such as New York and Massachusetts firmly into the Democratic column.

As the dust settled, President Hubert Humphrey sat secure in the White House, with a great task before him: heal America’s divides and end the Vietnam War, while restoring the country to prosperity and defending the world from the menace of Soviet power…”

Eric Pearlstein. 1972: A Presidential Election and the Battle for American Unity: New York: Penguin Books (2008). Print
 
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And, an EV map, courtesy of the amazing Plumber!

40.82% Hubert H. Humphrey / Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson (Democratic) 298 EVs
39.22% Richard Nixon / Spiro Agnew (Republican) 162 EVs
17.11% George Wallace / Ezra Taft Benson (American Independent) 75 EVs
2.51% George McGovern / James L. Farmer Jr. (Peace and Freedom) 3 EVs

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Well, Humphrey did it. Wonder who he'll pick for his cabinet. Also, how would the PRC be effected by events in the Middle East?
 
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