Fear Not the Revolution, Habibi: A Middle East Timeline

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Excellent update! :D It's also extremely entertaining to read about Egypt and Libya getting along instead of the OTL situation of Sadat wanting to invade until Carter told him no. But I am wondering just who is calling for Egypt to go into Sudan after the recent debacle in Yemen.
 
Well, Humphrey did it. Wonder who he'll pick for his cabinet. Also, how would the PRC be effected by events in the Middle East?

That he did. He was helped by a somewhat weaker Nixon and a healthy Wallace, so his political position may be weaker than what he wants it to be. Cabinet picks are definitely not set in stone. Ed Muskie for Secretary of State is a probable yes, and Shirley Chisholm is going to get a Cabinet slot if she wants it (HHS, HUD or Education are all on the table).

As for China, they are pretty tied up in internal affairs at this point. They will eventually look outwards though, and anti-Soviet leftist groups are going to be hungrily looking at Chinese resources.

Excellent update! :D It's also extremely entertaining to read about Egypt and Libya getting along instead of the OTL situation of Sadat wanting to invade until Carter told him no. But I am wondering just who is calling for Egypt to go into Sudan after the recent debacle in Yemen.

Thanks! As for Egypt and Sudan, there are always hawks pounding the drum for the next war. They have been emboldened by the refocus on Egyptian nationalism though, and quite a few Egyptian politicians at the lower level see northern Sudan and Darfur as an essential part of a Great Egypt.

Damn it Nixon is gone! Like that Egypt is better off though

Haha, I'm sure glad Nixon is gone; there won't be time for a real Watergate scandal, for one.
 
This is a great timeline. I am especially interested in just how different the Middle East will be in this TL compared to OTL. I am curious given the recent update just how likely is it that Egypt will make peace with Israel since the Egyptian government seems much less belligerent then it was in years before the 73 war. BTW what is going on Turkey and Cyprus, things were pretty unstable in those countries during this time.

Also, I feel embarrassed doing this in my first post but I should note that Jesse Jackson would have been ineligible to be VP in 72 because he didn't meet the minimum age requirement (Must be at least 35 years to be President).
 
This is a great timeline. I am especially interested in just how different the Middle East will be in this TL compared to OTL. I am curious given the recent update just how likely is it that Egypt will make peace with Israel since the Egyptian government seems much less belligerent then it was in years before the 73 war. BTW what is going on Turkey and Cyprus, things were pretty unstable in those countries during this time.

Also, I feel embarrassed doing this in my first post but I should note that Jesse Jackson would have been ineligible to be VP in 72 because he didn't meet the minimum age requirement (Must be at least 35 years to be President).

Thanks!

Egypt, in the long run, has major incentives to make peace with Israel as long as the Sinai is up for grabs in the deal. That should drive them towards a bargain with Israel, especially now that they have probably permanently alienated the USSR, and need a superpower patron. They are a little less belligerent, mostly because their army is significantly weaker.

Turkey and Cyprus will get talked about a bit, although my knowledge on the subject is pretty thin. If anyone knows good sources discussing them that are not too detailed (I don't really have the time for super-intense research right now), I would be very grateful.

As for Jesse Jackson, no worries! Thanks for pointing that out! I've replaced him with James Farmer Jr., another prominent civil rights leader who had recently retired from electoral politics but might have been willing to challenge the Democrats in this campaign.
 
40.82% Hubert H. Humphrey / Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson (Democratic) 298 EVs
39.22% Richard Nixon / Spiro Agnew (Republican) 162 EVs
17.11% George Wallace / Ezra Taft Benson (American Independent) 75 EVs
2.51% George McGovern / James L. Farmer Jr. (Peace and Freedom) 3 EVs

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Oops. I can't criticize your Middle Eastern narrative, not having the background, but I can shoot this full of holes.

I'll start with the impossibility of McGovern carrying DC. Voters in DC are (and in 1972) overwhelmingly liberal Democrats. However, both halves of that phrase are important, and there is no way that more than a small percentage of DC Democrats would bolt to a third party. If the Democrat candidate was Wallace, maybe - but not an orthodox mainstream Democrat, and a revered figure among liberals.

As for Benson instead of Lemay helping Wallace: the VP candidate doesn't matter that much (especially for a protest campaign), and Benson would bring his own set of problems to the ticket. He would be 73 in 1972, and he was known as an admirer of the John Birch Society. As a Mormon, he would be a handicap on Wallace among evangelical voters in the South (and elsewhere). There's no way the switch would raise Wallace's share by over 1/4.

The McGovern candidacy is implausible, too. The big issue for the Left in 1972 was the Vietnam War. By 1972, Humphrey had joined the "doves"; he would have campaigned as a "peace" candidate. Regardless of hard feelings from the primaries, McGovern would not split the "peace" vote.

The overall PV does not seem plausible. The changes from 1968 are

-4.2% R - Nixon
-1.9% D - Humphrey
+3.6% A - Wallace
+2.5% P - McGovern


Why should Nixon lose such a big slice of his votes, when he is now the incumbent? And Humphrey no longer has the support of an incumbent President (he narrowly carried Texas in 1968 thanks to LBJ's support). Presumably the 1972 McGovern vote essentially comes out of Humphrey.
But the Wallace does not come exclusively out of Nixon. Much of the Wallace vote was "yellow dog Democrats" who couldn't even think of voting for a Republican. In OTL, 1972 McGovern bettered 1968 Humphrey in five states: his home state of South Dakota, and four Southern states (Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas). IOW, even with McGovern on the ticket, many Wallace voters reverted to Democrat when there was no third party alternative.

Wallace is running ITTL; there is no way that Humphrey makes up a ten-point spread in Florida.
 
I'll start with the impossibility of McGovern carrying DC. Voters in DC are (and in 1972) overwhelmingly liberal Democrats. However, both halves of that phrase are important, and there is no way that more than a small percentage of DC Democrats would bolt to a third party. If the Democrat candidate was Wallace, maybe - but not an orthodox mainstream Democrat, and a revered figure among liberals.
Hubert Humphrey was not a "revered figure among liberals" in 1972. He was seen as a has-been, a flip-flopper, an insider, etc. I can see him losing DC to McGovern by a slim margin, as he will probably take it for granted and McGovern would campaign there to make a point.

As for Benson instead of Lemay helping Wallace: the VP candidate doesn't matter that much (especially for a protest campaign), and Benson would bring his own set of problems to the ticket. He would be 73 in 1972, and he was known as an admirer of the John Birch Society. As a Mormon, he would be a handicap on Wallace among evangelical voters in the South (and elsewhere). There's no way the switch would raise Wallace's share by over 1/4.
Wallace was polling 21% in 1968 before LeMay's gaffes and the unions' drive for Humphrey pulled him down. I don't think Benson would benefit Wallace (it is true that he might hurt him), but the lack of LeMay probably would.

The McGovern candidacy is implausible, too. The big issue for the Left in 1972 was the Vietnam War. By 1972, Humphrey had joined the "doves"; he would have campaigned as a "peace" candidate. Regardless of hard feelings from the primaries, McGovern would not split the "peace" vote.
Except that Humphrey hadn't really joined the doves as much as try to take all possible sides on the issue. The doves at the time did not see him as a dove at all, they saw him as a warmonger who was LBJ's man.

Why should Nixon lose such a big slice of his votes, when he is now the incumbent?
And Humphrey no longer has the support of an incumbent President (he narrowly carried Texas in 1968 thanks to LBJ's support). Presumably the 1972 McGovern vote essentially comes out of Humphrey.
But the Wallace does not come exclusively out of Nixon. Much of the Wallace vote was "yellow dog Democrats" who couldn't even think of voting for a Republican.
It's the economy, stupid. The oil shock came in 1970 rather than 1973 ITTL. I would assume that the worse economy means Humphrey gets more 1968 Wallace Democrat voters, making up for his loss among McGovern voters (though I do imagine a lot of those votes are people who didn't vote in 1968 at all), while Nixon loses conservative voters he won in 1968 to Wallace. McGovern hurts Humphrey, while Wallace does hurt both. It looks like he hurt Nixon more than Humphrey this time around, instead of hurting them both evenly like 1968. This makes sense, as Wallace is very anti-incumbent and more conservative than Nixon. Double whammy.

And of course, the unions are going to be backing Humphrey to the hilt. They took him from the mid-20s to a frog's hair from victory four years earlier, and in backing Nixon were the reason McGovern was utterly smashed IOTL.
In OTL, 1972 McGovern bettered 1968 Humphrey in five states: his home state of South Dakota, and four Southern states (Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas). IOW, even with McGovern on the ticket, many Wallace voters reverted to Democrat when there was no third party alternative.
That is interesting, I had never noticed that. But I don't see how it's relevant considering Wallace is going to take those states anyways.

Wallace is running ITTL; there is no way that Humphrey makes up a ten-point spread in Florida.
I'd imagine it was razor-thin there. Nixon's mishandling of the Purim War probably didn't do him any favors among pro-Israel voters there.
 
Oops. I can't criticize your Middle Eastern narrative, not having the background, but I can shoot this full of holes.

Plumber responded well to most of your critiques, but I'll add some things where necessary.

I'll start with the impossibility of McGovern carrying DC. Voters in DC are (and in 1972) overwhelmingly liberal Democrats. However, both halves of that phrase are important, and there is no way that more than a small percentage of DC Democrats would bolt to a third party. If the Democrat candidate was Wallace, maybe - but not an orthodox mainstream Democrat, and a revered figure among liberals.

What Plumber said. As well, Humphrey has alienated a decent chunk of liberal Democrats by picking Scoop Jackson, who at this time was trying to tack somewhere between Wallace and Humphrey on racial issues and the war.

As for Benson instead of Lemay helping Wallace: the VP candidate doesn't matter that much (especially for a protest campaign), and Benson would bring his own set of problems to the ticket. He would be 73 in 1972, and he was known as an admirer of the John Birch Society. As a Mormon, he would be a handicap on Wallace among evangelical voters in the South (and elsewhere). There's no way the switch would raise Wallace's share by over 1/4.

Again, what Plumber said. As well, Wallace is helped less by Benson and more by the fact that he's walking, and his cultural conservative views have had another four years to be confirmed in the minds of many voters. He's a powerful figure.

The McGovern candidacy is implausible, too. The big issue for the Left in 1972 was the Vietnam War. By 1972, Humphrey had joined the "doves"; he would have campaigned as a "peace" candidate. Regardless of hard feelings from the primaries, McGovern would not split the "peace" vote.

It's a combination of Humphrey's often-dirty campaign against him, the fact that the convention's credentials committee ruled against him twice, and that the selection of Scoop Jackson for VP makes him extra-suspicious that Humphrey will tack right on Vietnam.

The overall PV does not seem plausible. The changes from 1968 are

-4.2% R - Nixon
-1.9% D - Humphrey
+3.6% A - Wallace
+2.5% P - McGovern


Why should Nixon lose such a big slice of his votes, when he is now the incumbent? And Humphrey no longer has the support of an incumbent President (he narrowly carried Texas in 1968 thanks to LBJ's support). Presumably the 1972 McGovern vote essentially comes out of Humphrey.

But the Wallace does not come exclusively out of Nixon. Much of the Wallace vote was "yellow dog Democrats" who couldn't even think of voting for a Republican. In OTL, 1972 McGovern bettered 1968 Humphrey in five states: his home state of South Dakota, and four Southern states (Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas). IOW, even with McGovern on the ticket, many Wallace voters reverted to Democrat when there was no third party alternative.

Wallace is running ITTL; there is no way that Humphrey makes up a ten-point spread in Florida.

Nixon is losing because of the economy and the lack of a major win in reconciliation with China. The McGovern vote is entirely out of people who might vote Humphrey if forced to vote, but most of them are new voters; young people and minorities who otherwise would have stayed home.

Wallace is undermining both campaigns, but in those states, the Democrats have been beating the anti-Nixon drum hard. A lot of more liberal Democrats, who might have stayed home or voted for McGovern, turn out for Humphrey to prevent their states from going Nixon. The winner's popular vote percentage in quite a few states is under 40%, with three-cornered contests narrowly going to Humphrey due to union backing and dissatisfaction with the economy.
 

yboxman

Banned
How bad is the oil embargo TTL in terms of price hikes? The American people may forgive their president for losing Jordan and taking a controversial line Vs Israel but if the oil prices jump as they did OTL that would have to hurt Nixon. My personal opinion is that that would have killed the republican electoral prospects in 1976 with or without Watergate.

One thing you haven't touched on much here is Vietnam. How are things going on that front? any dragonflies?
 
How bad is the oil embargo TTL in terms of price hikes? The American people may forgive their president for losing Jordan and taking a controversial line Vs Israel but if the oil prices jump as they did OTL that would have to hurt Nixon. My personal opinion is that that would have killed the republican electoral prospects in 1976 with or without Watergate.

One thing you haven't touched on much here is Vietnam. How are things going on that front? any dragonflies?

The oil embargo isn't quite as bad as 1973; the absolute embargo is lifted earlier. Still, the Arab states have figured out how to use the oil weapon a few years early, so the higher prices caused by uncertainty are built into the market. As well, like in OTL, OPEC has started to unilaterally raise the price of oil through production cuts, which is also affecting the United States. Stagflation is going to start a few years early. That might hurt the Democrats in 1976, but it also might make the American people gun-shy about radical change.

Vietnam hasn't seen very many butterflies. The Soviets may have redirected some of their military equipment and attention to Syria, but the fundamentals of the war haven't really changed. Humphrey may pull troops out even faster, or, if he listens to Scoop, may reverse course and try a troop 'surge' to stabilize South Vietnam before withdrawing. I don't know if the second is particularly plausible though.
 

yboxman

Banned
Vietnam hasn't seen very many butterflies. The Soviets may have redirected some of their military equipment and attention to Syria, but the fundamentals of the war haven't really changed. Humphrey may pull troops out even faster, or, if he listens to Scoop, may reverse course and try a troop 'surge' to stabilize South Vietnam before withdrawing. I don't know if the second is particularly plausible though.

Well, one butterfly relates to Egypt. Between 1967-1973 the Soviets couldn't ship supplies to the Vietnamese Via the Suez canal what with it being a war zone which almost doubled shipping time from their main arms factories. Overland shipping was more difficult since Mao was in a anti-Soviet mood and his railways sucked. http://news.google.com/newspapers?n...av4cAAAAIBAJ&sjid=LpsEAAAAIBAJ&pg=7255,623830

Depending on how Chummy Egypt is with the U.S and how Egypt-Israel relations develop the Suez canal may be open to buissness sooner (or later).
 
Well, one butterfly relates to Egypt. Between 1967-1973 the Soviets couldn't ship supplies to the Vietnamese Via the Suez canal what with it being a war zone which almost doubled shipping time from their main arms factories. Overland shipping was more difficult since Mao was in a anti-Soviet mood and his railways sucked. http://news.google.com/newspapers?n...av4cAAAAIBAJ&sjid=LpsEAAAAIBAJ&pg=7255,623830

Depending on how Chummy Egypt is with the U.S and how Egypt-Israel relations develop the Suez canal may be open to business sooner (or later).

Interesting. That may be a point of Egyptian leverage on the U.S., and a point of potential cooperation.
 
I made a map for the Middle East following the last post's coup in Egypt. If there are any mistakes, I'll change it.

fear%20not%20the%20revolution%20habibi%20middle%20east%20in%201972%20small.png

Bigger version Here
 
I made a map for the Middle East following the last post's coup in Egypt. If there are any mistakes, I'll change it.

fear%20not%20the%20revolution%20habibi%20middle%20east%20in%201972%20small.png

Bigger version Here

Thanks, this looks awesome.

Next update, finally, should be Allon's policies in Israel to finish up 1972, then onto 1973 and a tour of narratives to start 1973. Anything else people want to see though?
 

yboxman

Banned
Interesting. That may be a point of Egyptian leverage on the U.S., and a point of potential cooperation.

And vice verca- one reason Kissinger wasn't too anxious about pushing Israel out of the Sinai OTL was that keeping the Suez Canal a warzone was very convenient for the U.S up until 1975.
 
Hmmm, the Soviet's view on everything in the Middle East, Iran isf you haven't mentioned it, Huphrey's cabinet picks a nd policies.
 
I made a map for the Middle East following the last post's coup in Egypt. If there are any mistakes, I'll change it.

fear%20not%20the%20revolution%20habibi%20middle%20east%20in%201972%20small.png

Bigger version Here

Shouldn't the Jordan Valley be a part of Israel proper?

EDIT: guess that the Saudis are scared shitless by the dangerous-looking bundle of Baathist countries in their general neighbourhood.
 
Baror and Milman, at it again

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“Yigal Allon’s first government brought both stability and a refreshing wave of incremental change to the state of Israel. While his predecessors in the Labour Zionist movement had become complacent and comfortable in power, and the policies and attitudes of Menachem Begin and the Irgunist right were disastrous, Allon brought Labour Zionism back to its roots. Under Allon and Tekumah, the Zionist left once again was a movement that believed in a Jewish national state, tolerance and respect towards non-Jewish minorities, a love of peace at home and abroad, and empowerment through socialism for workers, farmers and the poor. Allon’s achievements, however vandalized by Revisionist scholars and undermined by later governments, guided Israel towards prosperity, freedom and social justice…

For many voters, particularly the working class and Mizrahim in frontier development towns, the volatile economy was the most important election issue. While Allon’s presence as leader of a solid coalition and the stabilizing new security policies implemented by the NSC and Tekumah steadied the economy, more active measures were necessary. Allon’s domestic policies thus focused on four key areas of potential economic improvement: education, scientific research, industrial development, and infrastructure.

The education system was substantially revamped, with a greater emphasis on rigorous scientific and vocational training; tighter control asserted over the National Religious, Haredi and Arab school streams; centralization of policy, content, curriculum and materials in the Ministry of Education; reintroduction of an independent Labour Zionist education stream; and a substantial hike in teachers’ salaries, meant to encourage bright students to enter the teachers’ college. While Minister of Education Rachel Yaanit Ben-Zvi aimed to improve Israeli universities, the government also improved foreign exchange programs and scholarships to send exceptional Israeli students to Europe and the United States for study…

Scientific research, especially applied research, gained immense government support during Allon’s premiership. The government of Israel, through the Ministries of Education, Defence, and Industry and Development, financed state-of-the-art new laboratories and testing facilities for applied physics, chemistry and biology. Israeli and foreign scientists, particularly if their research could be commercialized into something beneficial for the Israeli economy or national defence, were given very generous grants to conduct research on Israeli soil. Biologists and agricultural scientists developed new varieties of desert crops, engineers and physicists looked to solve Israel’s perennial energy issues through the power of the sun and wind, researchers aimed to reduce the cost of desalinating water and make seawater drinkable and affordable, and deep in the Negev Desert, military scientists designed and tested new generations of weapons to defend the nation…

Israel was a tiny nation with few natural resources; thus, industrial development was key in growing the Israeli economy. Israel’s industrial base was centered on textile production, which made up 10% of total industrial production and 12% of industrial exports, second only to high-value polished diamonds. Allon saw textiles as an important source of foreign exchange and employment, but sought to diversify the country’s industry away from the low-value-added products. A state-run development bank, under the leadership of former Finance Minister Pinchas Sapir, provided subsidized credit to exporters in food processing, chemical production, and other industries. The keystone of Israel’s industrial growth during this period though was arms manufacturing. Israeli weapons, tried and tested by the IDF, were considered to be high quality by purchasers throughout the free world. As a high value-added product produced using common materials and as a product in high demand during the turmoil of the Cold War period, arms exports kept Israel’s economy growing at a rapid pace throughout the 1970s. Often placed in development towns, arms factories brought prosperity and social integration to the whole of the people, rather than just those who lived in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem…

Allon, a man with exceptional vision, sought to boost the Israeli economy in the short and long term through infrastructure projects in order to improve the competitiveness of industry, make it easier to travel throughout the beautiful land of Israel, and reduce reliance on imported energy. Tel Aviv’s airport, renamed Ben-Gurion Airport after the recently passed founding father of the nation, was expanded along with regional airfields. A network of electrified passenger railroads was planned, with ground broken in early 1973; these, alongside strict rules about fuel efficiency, would reduce the country’s energy import bill. New power plants, primarily fueled by coal, were built to reduce the cost of electricity, while experimental electrical generation was tried, with windmills in the Golan Heights and the world’s first functioning solar power plant built in 1974 just north of the Dead Sea. A major infrastructure project, the Two Seas Canal, was planned as well. This involved digging a canal from the Red Sea through the Negev to the Dead Sea. The drop in altitude and flowing water could be used to generate hydroelectricity, while the water could refill the shrinking Dead Sea. This project, more than any other, attracted the attention of the world…”

Shimon Baror. Twelve Tribes: A Political History of Israel. Jerusalem: Keter Press, 1999.


***


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“The Allon regime, now fully in control of the Knesset after a farcical ‘election’ of vote-rigging and intimidation worthy of a ‘peoples’ republic,’ looked to consolidate its power over the state of Israel. Bringing Arab vassals, the weak-willed faction of the National Relgious and the remnants of Mapai, a velvet glove over the iron fist of the Leftist establishment, Tekumah and Allon made sure that the Special Period extended far into the future. The Defence Regulations, meant for use only in times of true national crisis, were made a permanent part of the state’s power. Censorship, arbitrary detention, harassment, forced exile and even beatings became a standard part of Israel’s political environment.

The most regularly active part of the totalitarian program was censorship. The state, citing import restrictions and other regulations, strictly controlled the supply of newsprint and other materials necessary for the production of newspapers. The state press as well as favoured media outlets, such as the near-Communist LaMerhav and Al HaMishmar or the bourgeois-socialist Ha’aretz, had easy access to these supplies. Other newspapers, particularly right-leaning ones, were forced to cut costs, change their attitude, or shut down. Many venerable papers, including HaYom and Herut, chose the third option, both shutting their doors in 1973. The Ministry of Information, in charge of the national media, pressured papers to refrain from running stories or retain columnists critical of the government. They used the threat of the national press censor and heavy fines for defamation and ‘disrupting social harmony’ to control the press. While criticism was sometimes allowed, nothing could challenge the dominant narrative of order, progress and justice that the Allon regime espoused. A similar dynamic existed on radio and television, with state dominance preventing private stations, particularly anti-regime stations, from gaining any foothold…

When these softer tactics did not work, the state security forces were always there to suppress fighters for freedom with more directness. The police and Shin Bet were staffed according to political priorities, and the new Domestic Affairs division of the Shin Bet infiltrated, smeared and even disappeared peaceful activists of every stripe when they opposed Israel’s descent into tyranny and dictatorship. When even this was not sufficient, the state turned to the National Guard. Made up of the former Border Police, a division of the military, and other paramilitary units, the National Guard were tasked with ‘maintaining security within the state of Israel from internal and external threats’: in short, the National Guard was an army, occupying the state of Israel, with a Star of David on their shoulders. The National Guard was staffed with conscripts and professionals, with tests of political loyalty to the leftist establishment and a certain degree of brutality and callousness. Militarized and placed under the command of the Minister of Internal Affairs, the National Guard policed Israeli territory, with checkpoints, midnight arrests and their own militarized prison system. Many of the leading lights of the right would find themselves in one of their cells at one time or another…”

Dov Milman. Herod Restored: MAPAI, the Right and the “Special Period”. New York: Judaea House Publishing. 1991


***​


Seventeenth Government of Israel

Prime Minister: Yigal Allon (Tekumah)
Deputy Prime Minister: Yisrael Galili (Mapai)
Minister of Agriculture: Haim Gvati (Mapai)
Minister of Defence: Yisrael Galili (Mapai)
Minister of Education: Rachel Yaanit Ben-Zvi (N/A)
Minister of Finance: Yehoshua Rabinovitz (Tekumah)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Yitzhak Rabin (Tekumah)
Minister of Housing and Social Services: Tzvi Tzur (Tekumah)
Minister of Health: Shulamit Aloni (Tekumah)
Minister of Industry and Development: Shmuel Mikunis (Tekumah)
Minister of Internal Affairs: Haim Laskov (Tekumah)
Minister of Immigrant Absorption: Haim Yosef Zadok (Mapai)
Minister of Justice: Aharon Barak (Tekumah)
Minister of Labour: Shimon Peres (Tekumah)
Minister of Minority Affairs: Elias Nakhleh (Tekumah)
Minister of Information: Shalom Cohen (Tekumah)
Minister of Religious Affairs: Yosef Burg (National Religious Party)
Minister of Regional Affairs: Zabr Muadi (United List)
 
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