Fear Not the Revolution, Habibi: A Middle East Timeline
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I'll write about those in a separate post, after I do some more research
Portugal to me is the most interesting; it was winning in Angola, losing in Guinea and stalemated in Mozambique, and its main architect (Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho) openly regrets what became of Portugal afterward.
That, and the Estado Novo is by far the weirdest far-right regime that has ever existed. Condemned fascism for being pagan, had a keiretsu/zaibatsu economic system (none of which are that atypical) but also openly preached (hollow) Lusotropicalism and (hypocritical) racial tolerance (originally at the same time as forced labor)... just not what you expect from the right.
Spain could also go pear-shaped; kill Juan Carlos, and the military reacts... things could go really bad in Spain.
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Definitely. I'll have to think about Portugal a whole bunch before I write anything about it.
As for Spain... yeah, it could go bad, especially if this guy's assassination is butterflied away.
Potentially.
Not necessarily. During the Green March Franco was literally dying, and the government wanted to avoid a conflict that could spark social troubles at home when the incertitude of a post-Franco world was obvious, which is why they broke their long-standing policy of providing independence to the Saharauis (at some point). Of course, things could be radically different and if Franco has better health in November 1975, there might be no Green March, or if there is, then he might order the Spanish troops to shoot at the marchers who survived crossing the mine fields in the border.
But well, without a monarchy, we'll see... It's gonna be interesting indeed.
Fair enough. If Franco is in equally bad health but his successor is clear and perhaps already in charge (say, Admiral Luis Carrero Blanco), what happens? Do the Spanish resist the Green March? Do the Moroccans send troops in to protect their settlers, or might they fund increasingly aggressive Sahwari resistance to colonialism instead, with the hope of annexing the territory later? If the regime is leftist and dealing with a struggling economy at home, do they attempt a full-scale invasion of Spanish territory claimed by Morocco (i.e., Western Sahara, Ceuta and Melilla) as a revanchist distraction? What happens if they have Algerian military aid in this scenario?
(Sorry for all the questions)
yboxman
Banned
How does the revolution effect Morroco-Algerian relations and the Tindouf border dispute? Might Algeria try to revrese the otcome of the sand war during the revolution?
Also, how are Morroco's remaining Jews going to fare under the new regime? there are still 35,000 left in 1971. They eventually arrived at a fairly chummy relationship with the monarchy OTL, with some being employed as bodyguards to the king. I guess that's not happening TTL.....
Also, how are Morroco's remaining Jews going to fare under the new regime? there are still 35,000 left in 1971. They eventually arrived at a fairly chummy relationship with the monarchy OTL, with some being employed as bodyguards to the king. I guess that's not happening TTL.....
They might, although they might also not want to alienate a potential ally or client regime. They could gain Moroccan recognition of Algerian claims to Tindouf in exchange for some desperately needed financing. Especially once anti-government forces in Morocco get their act together, the leftist regime will need all the help they can get.
As for Morocco's Jews, I would bet that they have been steadily fleeing to Israel since the monarchy fell. I doubt that the UNFP and PPS will actively persecute the small number of remaining Jews, but if there is an escape valve from social unrest, economic crisis and likely rising random violence, the Jews will use it.
No worries!
Well, it is hard to tell, I don't think colonial issues were a big deal for anyone in the Francoist or post-Francoist period besides an emotional attachment to Morocco, and once that was handed out in 56... Well, if Carrero is in charge, the government will be decisive, there's a much obvious succession and more of a business as usual attitude that will avoid the feeling of lost direction of the time. However, it is also as possible that Juan Carlos will try to avoid by contacting the US and talking to the Moroccoan King, although I doubt it'd be useful, iirc it was tried OTL. The problem is that the Spanish Army was better than the Moroccan, but still not a good warring machine and I doubt there's be much desire to waster Spanish lives for a piece of sand, now if it's about Ceuta and Melilla, then it's very different...
Of course this is only if Carrero Blanco doesn't resign the moment Juan Carlos becomes king, as some say was his intention, but of course it's hard to know.
If the Spanish do as originally planned (and it could, although it usually was pretty responsive to the outrage of foreign liberals) they'll shoot on the marchers once they cross the no-man's land the Spanish created by withdrawing from the border and once they cross the minefields. Then, they will act, although I doubt anyone will want much violence, I guess the US will intervene, but with a less American friendly Morocco TTL it might not side with the Moroccans as it usually has had.
And if the Spanish win, I think that at any rate, they'll gain independence, in the 80s probably, with democracy (make no mistake democracy was coming one way or another), since I do think the dictatorship was honest in decolonization, after all they already did it with Morocco, Ifni and Equatorial Guinea.
Wow. Oufkir barely lasted two years. I'd feel sorry for him if he wasn't a dictator.
It'll be interesting to see how Franco will react to a Soviet-aligned, philo-Ba'athist regime in Morocco. Franco can deal with Ba'athism, but I don't think El Caudillo would want to share a land border with a Soviet client state. I wonder if Amekrane and the RCC will try to seize the Western Sahara by force if the Spanish won't hand it over? Let's not forget the disputed territories of Ceuta and Melilla, either.
It'll be interesting to see how Franco will react to a Soviet-aligned, philo-Ba'athist regime in Morocco. Franco can deal with Ba'athism, but I don't think El Caudillo would want to share a land border with a Soviet client state. I wonder if Amekrane and the RCC will try to seize the Western Sahara by force if the Spanish won't hand it over? Let's not forget the disputed territories of Ceuta and Melilla, either.
Fair enough. I think it will also depend on whether or not the intrusion is perceived as Communist. IOTL, the Green March was mounted by a pro-Western monarchy, and the United States stayed pretty much neutral as far as I can tell. Here, the Americans and French may push Spain to defend their turf, if only to drain the Moroccan regime's forces even further.
Seems reasonable. The Green March may not be led by civilians in that case: it might be led by tanks instead.
If the Moroccans go full-out and attack all of the Spanish possessions that they claim, how would that war turn out? Morocco's military is definitely weaker, but I'm unsure how strong the Spanish Navy was, particularly their ability to force-project ground troops across bodies of water. If Ceuta and Melilla fall, can Spain reasonably take them back? What happens if Algerian forces (air, naval, artillery and Special Operations) are involved on the Moroccan side? Sorry if I'm drilling you about military stuff, I just don't know all that much.
Wow. Oufkir barely lasted two years. I'd feel sorry for him if he wasn't a dictator.
It'll be interesting to see how Franco will react to a Soviet-aligned, philo-Ba'athist regime in Morocco. Franco can deal with Ba'athism, but I don't think El Caudillo would want to share a land border with a Soviet client state. I wonder if Amekrane and the RCC will try to seize the Western Sahara by force if the Spanish won't hand it over? Let's not forget the disputed territories of Ceuta and Melilla, either.
Yeah, the social forces that the coup unleashed were impossible to control, especially without the deep well of social legitimacy (or at least inevitability) that the Alaouite dynasty had. Once the king was toppled and a Republic declared, the bar to another coup or "Corrective Revolution" is much lower, and Oufkir (despite being an excellent political knife-fighter and brutal autocrat at his core) was just unable to manage those pressures.
Definitely. I'd expect him to strengthen their garrisons at least, and possibly make a faster move towards Western Saharan independence, to get it off his hands. He'll be dead in a couple of years as well though, and the presence of an unabashedly leftist regime across the Straight of Gibraltar will probably strengthen the Spanish right. I don't know how long a transition to democracy could be delayed, but it might happen; if Juan Carlos gets too uppity, they could force him to abdicate in favour of the Infante Felipe, who would be eight years old or so. Another Regency, under Admiral Blanco, is definitely a possibility. Another option, especially if the Europeans and Americans dial up the pressure, could be a slow transition through a period of "managed democracy", with the left banned or gerrymandered into irrelevance and former regime officials remaining in power in the bureaucracy and deep-state apparatus.
I'm super busy with school, so the next update (to either of my TLs) may take a while. Anything I should focus on?
yboxman
Banned
A look at the USSR, specifically Brezhnev's attempts to reduce millitary expenditures. Would be interesting to see how a different Middle East conflict effects the power struggle between him and Grechko
I'm rather curious on the big picture of how America is viewing the Soviets' growing influence in all these middle eastern countries. With more of these states that can be labeled as hard left (or leaning much more that way) compared to alliances of convenience that most Soviet client states tried to pursue, Communism seems like it will be seen as on the march.
What will the French do wrt Morocco? I happen to have met quite a few French Moroccan's (usually mixed race and Muslim) in London and from what I can tell, they form a small but privileged minority in Morocco, in a parallel system. Many apparently don't even hold Moroccan citizenship, despite being born and raised there.
Some very intriguing revelations have surfaced, which seem relevant to the Morocco story here. Oufkir allegedly had connections with the Mossad- would Israel have secretly celebrated his year in power here?
Exams are finally done (as is my undergraduate degree!!), so I should have more time to write and research now.
I'll have to do some more research, but I'll think about it.
"Communism" definitely seems to be on the march: Vice-President Scoop Jackson is very unhappy. The advance of leftism in the Arab world is one of the reasons the Americans are so willing to support a rather authoritarian Israeli government with lots and lots of aid and cheap credit.
Hmmm, interesting, I didn't know that about that group of people.
As for French involvement, they're even more pissed off than the Americans are. Oufkir was their boy, and now he's dead, along with his regime. I'd expect there to be mass nationalizations of French property and assets, and possibly the expulsion of French citizens.
Not really, although I can give you some rough estimates. Israel saw something like 1,500 KIA and several thousand more wounded: the Battle of Damascus was a meatgrinder. The Syrians and Palestinians together likely lost something closer to 15,000 soldiers.
Definitely interesting. I suspect the Israelis had a role in bringing down Mohamed Ababou's helicopter, and their assets in Morocco are likely either being tortured to death, deep underground, on their way out of the country, or plotting chaos.
I'll have to do some more research, but I'll think about it.
"Communism" definitely seems to be on the march: Vice-President Scoop Jackson is very unhappy. The advance of leftism in the Arab world is one of the reasons the Americans are so willing to support a rather authoritarian Israeli government with lots and lots of aid and cheap credit.
Hmmm, interesting, I didn't know that about that group of people.
As for French involvement, they're even more pissed off than the Americans are. Oufkir was their boy, and now he's dead, along with his regime. I'd expect there to be mass nationalizations of French property and assets, and possibly the expulsion of French citizens.
Not really, although I can give you some rough estimates. Israel saw something like 1,500 KIA and several thousand more wounded: the Battle of Damascus was a meatgrinder. The Syrians and Palestinians together likely lost something closer to 15,000 soldiers.
Definitely interesting. I suspect the Israelis had a role in bringing down Mohamed Ababou's helicopter, and their assets in Morocco are likely either being tortured to death, deep underground, on their way out of the country, or plotting chaos.
I have just found and avidly read this thread.
Would you possibly consider continuing this TL?
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