Renovation: An Eastern Roman Timeline

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Okay, tangents. What of Oman?
Being the comfiest Sultanate.

If the Byzantine empire can conquer the Candaroglu Beylik then they can also join up with Trebizond and control the entire southern coast of the Black sea.
Tactically that'd make a lot of sense, but that'd leave a very big border to protect.

Since the Byzantine empire is on good terms with the Aydinoglu Beylik and said beylik is undergoing a thorough hellenisation (Albeit unintentionally) is it more likely that the Byzantine empire will end up absorbing the beylik instead of conquering it?
It would require Romania to be in a much larger position of strength in order effectively 'diplovassalize' and then for something to happen where in which the Emir leaves the kingdom to Romania upon not having any heirs, which I find quite unlikely.

Anyways I know ya'll are waiting for me to continue writing- and don't worry, I haven't (I've just been busy is all, new job and what not). So have a teaser for the time being.

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When we last left off the Roman Empire was solidifying its control over its recently reconquered Anatolian holdings. The army had rebuilt from the ground up, an absolutely massive fortification program had been started around the Sakarya frontier and of course, the age old practice of settling the frontier from the heartland was once more in effect. Such methods were expensive and time consuming but the empire was able to pay them off thanks to its sustainable economic growth (despite the slowdown of recent years), its increased tax base and various loans from Italian banks based in Florence and Genoa. This was in 1370.

Let’s fast forward a bit. The year is 1393. Romania is currently reeling from an unprecedented economic recession, thereby being forced to drastically and suddenly put on hold on its construction boom and infrastructure investments of the last few decades. Fortunately, most of such projects have been completed, including the utterly extensive set of fortifications alongside the Anatolian frontier. However, this still leaves a huge problem. The decades since the Second Palaiogoi Civil War had seen spending increase dramatically and now there was not enough money coming in to manage that upkeep. In response, the empire went through hurried attempts at austerity in order to keep a positive balance. But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Why is Romania in such drastic straits?

The answer to this (like many other problems in the coming future) is due to the warlord Timur. During the 1380s Timur had spent his time building up his power base with the attempt of preparing an invasion of Persia, supposedly to reunite the Mongol Empire in the wake of the Ilkhanate’s demise. To this end he undertook the task of aiding his northern neighbor reunite the Golden Horde under the Khan Toqtamysh. Now here comes the problem: When Toqtamysh heard of Timur’s planned invasion of Persia Timur went from a loyal ally to a rival that needed to be undercut. Persia was nice, weak and divided. A juicy target for a empire in search of plunder and glory. Toqtamysh could not tolerate competition and promptly declared war, believing the resources of the newly unified Golden Horde would be enough to challenge whatever resources Timur could have amassed. Stupidity in challenging Timur aside, this was a decently sound proposition. The Unified Horde *did* have quite a lot of men it could throw at whatever problem it faced.

Anyways next Toqtamysh attempted to corner the warlord near the Volga in an ambush but predictably this failed. The Golden Horde’s forces were defeated. No that’s not right, more like pummeled, crushed, slaughtered. You get the picture. As expected, Toqtamysh died ignobly resisting the force of nature that was Timur. Casualties were massive on the Golden Horde's side. So massive, that with that the Golden Horde effectively ceased to exist. The head of the snake had been cut off. And with no Khan to rule the steppes, a power vacuum appeared, plunging the steppes into chaos until a power would arise.

More importantly, the massive chaos on the steppes caused a massive disruption to the Silk Road trade, which in turn crippled the Black Sea trade. Goods from the East stopped flowing into the major trade nexuses of Constantinople, Azov, Trebizond and Crimea. This was further aggravated when Timur decided to punish the Golden Horde and go on a sacking spree of the major cities for an additional insult to injury.

But back to Romania.

With the trade routes cut off, income from trade trickled to a crawl, causing a massive fiscal crisis back in Constantinople. While it is indeed true that Rome had pursued commercial activities in many other parts of the world such as the Eastern Mediterranean and the North African Coast, the Black Sea had always been the first and foremost sector of trade and therefore provided the bulk of income from commercial dues. And now that was gone.

Panic ensued.
 
@Sov, still as epic as ever. Also, heard elsewhere on AH.com that Dimitri of Russia planned to marry one of his daughters to Jagiello of Lithuania, thus uniting it and Muscovy. That would be an easy Muscovy-wank, wouldn't it?
 
Nice update however Tamerlane won't be around forever which will be good for the Byzantine empire also I wonder if Tamerlan will attack any of the Beyliks leaving them severely weakened and therefor vulnerable to being invaded and taken over by the Byzantine empire.
 
I think Sov said earlier that he didn't want to do Timur ex Machina with this TL. I really don't care as long as it gets to the scale of my Byzantium in size.:D
 
Hmm, a thought; should the Europeans try and conquer Egypt, wouldn't it be ironic if the Byzies actively save the latter, due to realpolitik?
 
30

Deleted member 67076

@Sov, still as epic as ever. Also, heard elsewhere on AH.com that Dimitri of Russia planned to marry one of his daughters to Jagiello of Lithuania, thus uniting it and Muscovy. That would be an easy Muscovy-wank, wouldn't it?
The fact there won't be a Crimean Khanate to steal thousands upon thousands of slaves would lead to a wank in and of itself.
I think Sov said earlier that he didn't want to do Timur ex Machina with this TL. I really don't care as long as it gets to the scale of my Byzantium in size.:D
And I won't.

Will Greek Fire ever be rediscovered in this timeline?
Could happen.

Hmm, a thought; should the Europeans try and conquer Egypt, wouldn't it be ironic if the Byzies actively save the latter, due to realpolitik?
Depends on the situation and whether the Byzantines benefit more. I doubt Egypt will be a target in the foreseeable future however.

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It cannot be underestimated the cutoff of trade in Romania during the crucial period following the effective end of the Golden Horde as a unified state. As much as perhaps 60% of all commercial income was obtained through the vital Black Sea nexus, primarily through ports owned or influenced by the Golden Horde.

Now you might be asking, why didn’t they just trade with Georgia? Or with Trebizond? Well… they did. It just didn’t end up making a large portion of the budget as few Roman traders dared to go there. You can blame the reason on the fact that over the decades the Genoese had gained near absolute monopoly on the commerce of these parts. And they did not tolerate competition. Often a trade ship would find itself prey to ‘pirates’, ‘bad fortune’ or just blatant raids by Genoese ships. Normally this would provoke retaliation, but such was the need to stay on the good graces of Genoa that Romania’s state trading company [1] decided to merely stick to the Golden Horde’s territory. There, The Horde ensured no one state would have a monopoly on commerce, making it a safe place for to invest in commerce.

But now the Horde was in chaos. Timur’s attack and follow up campaign north had majorly disrupted the traditional routes of commercial flow since the establishment of the Mongol Empire over 2 centuries earlier. Less coin stopped filling the coffers of Constantinople.

Ok, so trade has slowed to a crawl. Why not just use the money saved up to whether this crisis? Why is this so bad? The answer is because at the time the empire was on a spending spree. A very big one.

Attempting to undo the economic ruin caused by the Crusader States of Greece, recentralize the state, patronize the cities to ensure the government was still strong, rebuild and repopulate Anatolia while recreating an army from scratch is very expensive. Doing it while keeping taxes low, allowing the Church to remain with a rather loose leash and while generally having a lighter hand on the lower classes is very, very, very expensive. Actually even before the crash such was the spending that Romania began to borrow money from Italian bankers (primarily Genoa and Florence) just to keep up the pace of spending. Economic Growth and internal state revenues were simply not enough to keep pace with costs. Thus the crash was swift and brutal.

In a mere 4 months the coffers were once more near bankrupt. The word panic has been thrown around quite a lot but that’s simply the only way to describe the mood in the state. The aging John V, deeply distressed and inexperienced at managing economic problems, due to his own limited training of economics and simply authorized with slashing spending whenever possible. This impromptu austerity fell overwhelmingly on the civilian sector; John refused to ignore the military (rightly) believing that his soldiers and/or his mercenaries would become a liability should they stop being paid.

This was both a good and bad idea. While the obvious benefit was yes, the government was indeed spending less money -and at first it seemed the budget was becoming manageable- this came with a huge drawback. It increased what we would call unemployment. The vast majority of projects the government employed what ‘day workers’, that is, temporary workers hired from the urban poor or countryside to take part in whatever task was needed to be completed. Could be construction on a building, could be land clearage, could be constructing roads. Also could be workers hired on government owned farms and what not. Point is, whatever projects that were in the making were suddenly and without notice put on hold. Of course, this might have saved the government money but it disenfranchised thousands of people who came to depend on these jobs for their livelihood. Once more, poverty rose. Poverty leads to angry citizens. Angry citizens who like to riot over bread and their livelihood.

That’s not all however. In cutting spending, salaries were slashed on government workers, including bureaucrats. This was perhaps one of the most dangerous policies that the regime decided on. Romania’s bureaucracy since the Second Palaiologoi Civil War had rapidly grown in size, power and reach. The rise of commerce had come with a rise in the need for recording transactions and the last Civil War granted the Bureaucracy a place of unparalleled prestige. Combined with the networks of patronage, clientelism and cronyism, this turned the previously neglected and emasculated institution into the third power bloc of the state, just behind the military and church in its influence. It gets even worse when you realize that the demand for educated workers to managed the endless flow of information gave them an additional bargaining power.

Pissing this off was a bad idea.

Upon receiving the news that salaries were to be cut, the bureaucrats simply ‘re-interpreted’ the order on reducing their salaries to reducing that of the military budget, of whom there was currently an inter factional rivalry thanks to recent government patronage (Yes its stupid and petty but this is Rome). The long story short of this is that soldier were not getting their salaries, receiving much less than promised, there was less money in the budget, military plans were not carried out as effectively, etc. Do note that mercenaries in the service of The Empire were not affected by this as they were paid from the Emperor directly in order to promote loyalty.

But I digress; back to the chaos at hand. When you have such a volatile mixture the situation becomes very hectic. You’ve got angry peasants who are starving, angry soldiers, a worldview of social welfare entrenched into the population and a government that appears to do nothing to alleviate the struggles of the common folk. Add in one of the more brutal winters in the 1394-5 period and it boils over; the Urban Mob in Constantinople explodes into waves of rioting. Out in the countryside we see isolated peasant revolts, and in major cities Zealots of Thessalonica, long since faded into minor radical religious groups (That the Orthodox church had tried to co-opt or get rid of) once more rise into prominence attacking the imperial government and calling for a renewal of the status quo and a redistribution of wealth.

Continuing, things once again get worse. Unpaid soldiers begin to join in with the unorganized mobs and revolts of dissent in European Romania. What was once small, local riots begin to coalesce into rebellion, led by charismatic figures eager to take advantage of the situation. Promising bread, coin and safety, they vow to take the fight against a corrupt government that has forgotten why they were put in power in the first place.

Romania, free of internal civil strife for an unprecedented 53 years, descended into civil war once again.

[1] Recall that the State has a monopoly on external commerce upon following the Venetian model. Therefore, trading is done via a state owned company, not unlike how guilds within a city would dominate a local industry.
 
The Lombardian snake constricts the eagle and now the hatchlings stand poised to rip apart their nest and bring in all manner of death and chaos.

Please tell the Aydinids don't betray them in whatever mess comes out of this.
 
What a mess! Timur will disrupt trade for years to come and it's not like the romans can declare war to Genoa to at least try to make up for the losses (that would only make worse the financial situation).

It'll be interesting to see how the empire get out of it.
 
Well, finally catch to read the last updates and damn if things started to go astray for the Empire. And Timur wasn't even yet in Anatolia...
 

Deleted member 67076

The Lombardian snake constricts the eagle and now the hatchlings stand poised to rip apart their nest and bring in all manner of death and chaos.

Please tell the Aydinids don't betray them in whatever mess comes out of this.
Nah, they stay loyal.

It'll be interesting to see how the empire get out of it.
The same way the Romans deal with most of their problems; by throwing gold and iron at it.
Well, finally catch to read the last updates and damn if things started to go astray for the Empire. And Timur wasn't even yet in Anatolia...
Glad to have you back! :)

Yeah things have been going too good for too long. :p Don't worry however- the Roman Empire is a cycle of expansion, collapse, reform and expansion once more. This is but a bump in the road!
 
Nah, they stay loyal.


The same way the Romans deal with most of their problems; by throwing gold and iron at it.

Glad to have you back! :)

Yeah things have been going too good for too long. :p Don't worry however- the Roman Empire is a cycle of expansion, collapse, reform and expansion once more. This is but a bump in the road!
The Aydinids stay loyal,but the Germiyanids sure aren't.This is just going to be Manzikert 2.0.
 
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