Excellent points DAv! Nonetheless, I’m going
to here, if not exactly defend Nap, try to ex-
plain him. Based on Tilsit, Nap was sure it
wouldn’t take much before Alexander was
eating out of his hand again. Therefore, I
think Nap was not exactly counting on a
full-fledged campaign of the sort Hitler would
mount against Russia in 1941. Rather, he
probably thought that one or two victories
over Russian armies would be sufficient to
get Alexander to knuckle under. If worst came to worst, just grabbing Moscow(never
mind about the rest of Russia!)would do the
trick. It never seems to have crossed Nap’s
mind that Alexander- not to mention the
Russian people- would regard him in a diff-
erent light once he invaded their country(of
course lack of self-esteem was never one of
Nap’s problems)

On the other hand, Napoleon knew well enough what happened to the Tsar's father when he went against the opinion of the nobility too much. It should have become obvious what the truth was once the Russians refused to surrender after Moscow. But he dithered and men died pointlessly.
 
What about Saratoga? No Saratoga means no United States, no bankrupting of the French Monarchy leading to the Revolution, debatable no Napoleon.
 
Excellent points DAv! Nonetheless, I’m going
to here, if not exactly defend Nap, try to ex-
plain him. Based on Tilsit, Nap was sure it
wouldn’t take much before Alexander was
eating out of his hand again. Therefore, I
think Nap was not exactly counting on a
full-fledged campaign of the sort Hitler would
mount against Russia in 1941. Rather, he
probably thought that one or two victories
over Russian armies would be sufficient to
get Alexander to knuckle under. If worst came to worst, just grabbing Moscow(never
mind about the rest of Russia!)would do the
trick. It never seems to have crossed Nap’s
mind that Alexander- not to mention the
Russian people- would regard him in a diff-
erent light once he invaded their country(of
course lack of self-esteem was never one of
Nap’s problems)

Well, yes. Napoleon was expecting to fight a major battle (or battles) somewhere close to the border in the expectation that leaving Alexander without an army would force him to make a peace. Moscow, AFAIK, was not the planned ultimate goal of his campaign, it just became one when the Russian armies kept retreating. The funny thing is that Nappy had a realistic chance to succeed with his plan thanks to the idiotic strategy adopted by Alexander on advice of a former Prussian general (even his protege, Clausewitz, found it to be a deadly trap): the 1st Russian Army could be surrounded at the Drissa camp with the 2nd Army being too small to do anything of importance.

However, Nappy's problem was not as much Russian national patriotism (the tricky issue) but unpreparedness of his troops for that type of campaigning. They lost something between 10 and 20% of the horses while still close to the border due to a big rainstorm (one would expect that the cavalrymen must be taught how to take care of their horses, but not in Nappy's army). After Smolensk the bulk of his army had been marching by a single road in a scorching heat (and after the whole Russian army was there, eating whatever was available). The units sent to find some supplies had been using either force or the (counterfeit) paper money which the peasants never saw instead of gold, etc. He presumably created a big depot in Smolensk but the troops marching ahead could not be provisioned from it (no means of transportation) and on the way back most of the assembled food was destroyed by the disorganized looting.
 
On the other hand, Napoleon knew well enough what happened to the Tsar's father when he went against the opinion of the nobility too much. It should have become obvious what the truth was once the Russians refused to surrender after Moscow. But he dithered and men died pointlessly.

After Moscow surrender was out of question: Napoleon had been sitting in the middle of nowhere with between 90 and 100K troops and, realistically, nowhere to go except back. OTOH, size of the Russian army had been steadily increasing notwithstanding Kutuzov's laziness and ineptitude. Clausewitz wrote that at this point Napoleon ceased to be a serious threat and made a critical analysis of the scenarios of him going to the "rich southern governorships".
 
Since we are talking about pivotal battles for European history, I'll add the battle of Marchfeld since it Kick-started the rise of the Hapsburg dynasty.
 
Early Medieval: Constantinople 674-678. Not so much because of Byzantium, but rather because the destruction of the Arab fleet delayed Arab efforts to expand by sea for a century or two. Had Arab armies been backed up by central government fleets rather than relying on local corsairs (Crete) or defecting Byzantine admirals (Sicily), the Arabs might have been able to traverse the Med much earlier + further than before

Interesting! In our time line they did conquer the south coast of France in the 8th century and ruled there for some years. Later in the 9th/10th century they established a base there again at Fraxinetum and dominated the Alpine passes for a time, fighting several battles. They are reported as far north as Switzerland.

They also ruled parts of Italy (Sicily, Taranto, the Emirate of Bari) and had a base in Lazio, near Rome. In other words the western Mediterranean came close to total Muslim domination, with northern Italy the only area untouched by their expansion. So if you're right, even a small change could mean everything south of the Pyrenees and the Alps is Muslim today.
 
The Battle of Actium.
I think someone mentioned this one earlier but it hasn't come up since.
Had Antony and the Egyptians won, the Mediterranean world would have been divided in two with the west ruled from Rome and the east from Alexandria. I doubt if Antony would ever have been able to rule Rome, but Caesarion's claim might have led to years of conflict. A lot of future history would have changed, including the rise - or non-rise - of Christianity. Octavian's victory became the beginning of the Roman Empire.

BTW: I've been lurking here for a few years and finally decided to join. This is my very first post.
 
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