Honestly i don't see USSR taking over USA for a long time, what this means though is that we aren't stagnating and are keeping up with the USA, though going from half of USA GDP to 2/3 of USA GDP would be achievement.
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Crisis in the Kremlin - Our 1988 USSR
Honestly i don't see USSR taking over USA for a long time, what this means though is that we aren't stagnating and are keeping up with the USA, though going from half of USA GDP to 2/3 of USA GDP would be achievement.
We could manage to catch up to USA by 2020 and be on equal footing though, after that it's open game.
Made a lil graph comparing the GDP of ITL and IRL, missing numbers are bc they either have not been shown in the thread ( in the case of ITL numbers ), or bc i couldn't find info about them ( for some reason i cant seem to find info for the USSR's GDP on some years. )
While quite limited since we lack a bunch of numbers ( especially the 1983, 1987 and 1989 IRL USSR's GDP ), the trend still shows much better performing Soviet economy, with an slightly better performing American economy.
While quite limited since we lack a bunch of numbers ( especially the 1983, 1987 and 1989 IRL USSR's GDP ), the trend still shows much better performing Soviet economy, with an slightly better performing American economy.
Ooft! Even though there has been a Black Monday in TTL, that ballooning US GDP might indicate significantly overvalued markets. Without the OTL opening of the socialist bloc to Western capital after 1989, the US and its allies might be in for a world of hurt come the early-90s recession. This is especially true with our production/exports booming, which will further damage Western economies through competition alone (even more so if China's economy remains more isolated from Western corporate infiltration vs OTL).
With a deeper and potentially longer recession, we might see unemployment in the West reach levels similar to the early-80s (averaging 10% to 20%). This would be a great boon for us comrades, in showing the superiority of Marxism-Leninism, and the inevitably of capitalist collapse.
Chapter Twenty Four: Hirohito's death and the Round Table Talks (January 1989-Feburary 1989)
(An Afghan village left in ruins by bombing during Operation Typhoon)
Operation Typhoon was the penultimate military operation of Soviet troops during the Soviet-Afghan war. Carried out from January 23rd to January 26th, 1989, its aim was to “cause as much damage possible to the opposition forces in the central and northern provinces of the country. A combined arms force of units from the 108th and 201st motorized rifle divisions and other units of the Soviet 40th Army were deployed to the Afghan provinces of Parwan, Baghlan and Kunduz, with the aim of stabilising the regions before the withdrawal of the majority of Soviet ground forces in February. The Soviet air forces flew over 1,000 sorties against the Mujahideen targets alongside hundreds of artillery strikes against a woefully underprepared foe. The Mujahideen had come to an informal agreement with the USSR, that they would not attack withdrawing Soviet troops, and withdrawing Soviet troops would not strike Mujahideen targets. Soviet military officials heavily advised against the operation, believing it to be dishonest and without reason. According to the memoirs of General Valery Vostrotin:
“They say that Gorbachev implored [Romanov] not to carry out the operation, perhaps Najibullah had persuaded him? In any case, the decision was made by Romanov, although the military command, including the army commander, division and regiment commanders were against this operation. We were given the task of destroying Ahmad Shah’s group just before leaving. But it’s simply dishonest if we had an agreement. We simply knew their work schedule, the locations of their posts and their nightly deployment locations. And then, thirty minutes before they crawl out of their holes and start drinking tea, launch crazy artillery and air strikes on all these points. We simply vilely destroyed them.”
It is impossible to derive just how effective Operation Typhoon was in eliminating Mujahideen forces in the North. Few Soviet soldiers died during the operation as Mujahideen retaliation was severely limited, most strikes were carried out indirectly and indiscriminately via artillery and aerial bombing. Several dozen Afghan villages were destroyed and over 1,000 Afghan civilians died. According to military advisors stationed in Afghanistan, Afghan women would throw their dead children onto the road in the path of Soviet convoys, screaming at them the whole way. Mujahideen Commander Shah Massoud, who was the operation’s primary target, survived Operation Typhoon and would continue to harass DRA and Soviet forces over the next decade.
(Emperor Hirohito in 1935)
Emperor Hirohito of Japan died on January 7th 1989 at the Imperial Palace after losing his struggle with intestinal cancer. The Emperor had been suffering from digestive problems for years, however during an operation on his pancreas in 1987 it was revealed he was suffering from duodenal cancer. The Emperor underwent treatment for his cancer immediately and it appeared as though he would make a full recovery, however on September 19th 1988 he collapsed in his palace, and his health would slowly deteriorate over the next several months. Finally, on January 7th 1989, 7:55 AM, the Grand Steward of the Imperial Household officially announced the death of Emperor Shōwa and revealed details of his ailing health for the first time. Emperor Hirohito accessed to the throne in 1926, reigning over Japan for 63 years. He also reigned over Japan during the Second World War and was directly responsible for some of the worst crimes committed by the Japanese Empire. Sankō Sakusan, also known as the “Three-Alls policy”, was a Japanese scorched earth policy sanctioned by Hirohito, which directly and indirectly resulted in the deaths of over 3 million Japanese civilians. According to American historian Herbert P. Bix, Sankō Sakusan: "Caused death and suffering on a scale incomparably greater than the totally unplanned orgy of killing in Nanking, which later came to symbolize the war.” Hirohito’s state funeral is set to be held on the 24th February, and is expected to defeat the funeral of Josip Broz Tito for the largest gathering of international leaders in history.
(H.W Bush swearing the Oath of the office of the President of the United States)
The inauguration of George H.W Bush as 41st President of the United States occurred on Friday 20th January 1989 in front of the U.S Capitol in Washington D.C. It was the 51st inauguration and marked the beginning of the H.W Bush Administration, with George H.W Bush as President and Dan Quayle as Vice President. Bush was the first Vice President to be inaugurated as President of the United States since Martin Van Buren in 1837, and the last WWII combat veteran to be President. The Washington Metro set a new single-day record for the inauguration, with 604,089 trips, breaking the record of 565,000 for the Washington for Jesus 1988 rally.
The Polish Round Table Talks began in Warsaw, Poland on the 6th February 1989 between Communist officials and the banned dissident and trade union organisation Solidarity. In 1988, a massive wave of strikes swept Poland. The strikes, which began in isolation as early as Spring 1988 crippled the Polish economy and shocked both the government and Solidarity. The strikes were so severe that they almost forced the Polish government into declaring a state of national emergency, introducing troops to break up strikes. Polish officials attempted to appeal to the USSR for aid, however their efforts were severely hampered by Minister of Foreign Affairs Mikhail Gorbachev and Prime Minister Nikolai Ryzhkov, who downplayed the situation in Poland to Romanov at every opportunity. Both were heavily against any action by the USSR against Solidarity, believing that negotiations between Solidarity and the Government to in the best interests of Poland and the USSR. Nonetheless, without Soviet aid the Polish government was left to deal with the strikes alone, and it was becoming increasingly evident that negotiations were inevitable. In September, a secret meeting was held between Solidarity leader Lech Wałęsa and General Czesław Kiszczak. During the meeting Kiszczak promised Wałęsa that he would appeal to the Government on the subject of holding negotiations and even the legislation of Solidarity. In exchange, Wałęsa agreed to lift the strikes. The talks will talk place over several months and will be divided into three sectors – Political reform, Union reform and Economic and Social reform. Already a wide range of demands have been placed before the government, some even as radical as multiparty elections, however the Polish government is reluctant to agree to anything without Soviet approval.
The Soviet Government chose to relax it’s travel policy, allowing for more official exchanges between Soviet and Foreign organisations, especially amongst cultural and scientific bodies. Previously, travelling to Western countries was an exceedingly difficult affair. Travel to the West could only occur as part of a tour group and members of the group were supervised at all times. These restrictions have finally been lifted, and individual travel to the West is now a possibility, though it still remains closed off to the average Soviet citizen. Travel to most Western countries, with the exception of France and Italy, can only be approved on a case-by-case basis. And with the Soviet ruble being practically worthless in the West very few Soviet citizens find Western vacations worth the cost. Soviet vacation companies are already making new deals with foreign travel agencies and foreign Governments to incentivise inter-bloc travel, with new resorts in China becoming an exciting prospect for Soviet workers.
(A group of British aid workers search for survivors in the rubble)
The USSR allowed foreign NGOs to aid Soviet relief efforts in Armenia. Romanov set aside SOV₽5 Billion in funding for Soviet relief, in what would one of the largest disaster relief campaigns in Soviet history, exceeding even the cost of the Chernobyl incident. The relief effort was augmented by the largest West-East cooperation since World War 2, with Europe providing cargo aircraft loaded with medical supplies, food rations, medical personnel, mobile equipment, and even state-of-the-art thermal imaging equipment to locate trapped survivors. Japan sent US$9 million in financial aid, Italy built a prefabricated village to house refugees, America provided over 25,000lbs of medical equipment and more. The response was not limited to governments however, Western philanthropists provided crucial donations to the relief effort. Armand Hammer became well-known in the USSR for his donation of 2,300lbs of medical aid as well as US$1 million in financial aid. By July 1989 over US$500 million in aid had been provided by over 113 countries, Western planners and architects were invited to join in the rebuilding planning and the relief effort as a whole became a symbol of inter-bloc cooperation.
The Soviet Union denounced the actions of the Burmese Military government, announcing it’s support for the BSPP. Behind the scenes however the USSR had no plans for a restoration of BSPP rule, cooperating with India to train and fund supporters of the Burmese Communist Party and other anti-government movements. However, despite public and international pressure the military regime seems unlikely to fall anywhere in the near future. After the international community rallied against the SLORC the People’s Republic of China, seeing an opportunity to solidify it’s influence in the region, began sending both military and civil aid packages to the new government. In July 1989, the BCP headquarters in Panghsang was stormed by mutineers, and the senior leadership of the party was forced to flee into India, seeking refuge and aid from the USSR. The United States, although hostile to the military regime of Myanmar has condemned our actions as unnecessarily provocative.
(Maria Kalinina in the 2006 move "Stay Alive")
In a court ruling, it was found that the Moscow Beauty Contest was not illegal, and it was publicly declared in TASS as in line with socialist ideals. Maria Kalinina was allowed to emigrate to the USA, where she attended acting school, starring in several Hollywood productions. An article in Pravda was published, praising the braveness of the young women who participated in the contest and stressing the importance of bodily autonomy in the struggle for international women’s liberation. Conservative publications grumbled over the outcome of the court ruling, and protested the resolutions of Pravda and TASS, however they remained mainly quiet. Another Moscow Beauty Contest is to be held next year, and other organisations have begun to organise their own celebrations of “bodily liberation.” An all-Union Komsomol Beauty contest is set to take place in 1990.
The USSR opted to loosen restrictions on foreign businesses within the USSR.
After intense negotiation with foreign business interests, it was decided that Special Economic Zones (SEZs) would be set up in Odessa, Vladivostok, Kaliningrad, and Sevastopol. Leningrad was initially to join these SEZs however after intense opposition from it’s New-Left dominated bodies it was dropped from the list. In these SEZs companies would be exempt from many of the more radical demands of Soviet law, such as participation in the planned economy, as well as receiving many benefits such as reduced taxes and tariffs. The requirement for party members on boards of directors was also removed nationwide, however companies were still required to allow their workers to participate in the Soviet system. Tariffs were also strengthened for foreign companies operating outside the SEZs, but only on select industries such as IT. Foreign companies were relatively satisfied by these changes, and the first manufacturing firms are beginning to appear not only in SEZs but inside industrially rich areas of the Union such as the Donbass and Stalingrad, however these non-SEZ expansions are limited to raw resource extraction and heavy industry. The debates in managing and regulating foreign businesses also brought many issues left unaddressed by previous economic reforms to the forefront, such as the merged civilian-military sector, the overbearance of Gosplan, and more. However, none of these issues were resolved effectively, with far-left and far-right elements crashing once again in their battle between markets and planning. With the radical left even wishing for an expansion of military-civilian cooperation, something the Reformist and Liberal wings considered poison to the USSR economic prospects.
In another round of political reform, the CPSU put forward new legislation on the right to assembly. Formalising an official process for political organisations to organise protests and other demonstrations. Political bodies will now be required to notify local party bodies at least two weeks in advance of their planned activities, demonstrations will still be subject to laws on anti-Soviet propaganda, with violations resulting in heavy fines and even jail time depending on the severity of the offence. Both Liberal and Radical-left publications lamented the new regulations, accusing the legislation of reinforcing dogmatism, however dissent does not leave the printing press and the majority of the population remains happy.
1. Should the USSR send a delegation to the funeral of Emperor Showa?
2. How Should the USSR respond to the Polish government's decision to negotiate with Solidarity? What, if any, concessions should be made to the group?
3. Should the USSR continue it's support for the CPB in Burma? If so, what methods of support should take priority?
2. How Should the USSR respond to the Polish government's decision to negotiate with Solidarity? What, if any, concessions should be made to the group?
3. Should the USSR continue it's support for the CPB in Burma? If so, what methods of support should take priority?
1. Yes, to show our good will. Besides, we should seek positive diplomatic and most importantly economic relations with Japan, as with their current growth rate, they will take over us in a couple of years, and maybe even the U.S. by year 2000. More importantly, the USSR and the Eastern Bloc is a market with a massive potential, and the Japanese might be willing to provide us with technology and financial assistance in exchange for preferential treatment of Japanese companies in the USSR. The USSR is the new promised land for American, European and Japanese companies, so we should play one against each other to gain as much concessions as possible. Our other priority should be settling the dispute over the Kuriles once and for all. Good relations with Japan would be very valuable for us as a counterweight to a current Sino-American alliance.
2 & 3 I support @Kriss
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Honestly we need to bury a hatchet with Japan and they really didn't do much against us directly, so we should send a delegation.
- Mantain a firm stance that any political concessions that would endanger Communist parties hold on power are out of the question.
- Support economic liberization and opening up of Polish economy as well as some freedoms in making independent economic decisions and deals that don't conflict with COMECON and Warsaw Pact.
- Allow for establishment of Private businesses in Poland if needed be.
- Give further freedoms to Catholic church in Poland , but still maintain Communist values in society. We need to acknowledge that we cannot subjugate the religion in Poland like we can in USSR, time has come for us to allow Poland to follow its path to Communism in full, instead of subordination of the the religion to the state Poland should pursue a secular coexistence.
- Give greater freedom to the Unions in Poland.
For now I'll just go with Indian position on this and back them here.
- to further specify this I'll distance ourselves from purely supporting CPB and we should diversify our support to every anty military government, our condition will be for those factions to adopt more pro Socialist policies and to agree to mantain/deepen friendly relations with USSR and India.
- We shall coordinate sanction policy with India as well as train paramilitary groups in India and set up liberation front from various factions.
- Besides training we will supply the rebels with Weaponry, Intelligence and finances.
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I agree, also im not appreciating our economic reforms being blocked . I feel Comrade Romanov has given to much power to the the far off fringes of the party.
I believe the time has come for the power to return to the Politburo for the good of the Soviet Union.
1 - It would be advisable to send a representative to the funeral. Likewise, this envoy could be used to achieve trade agreements and technological exchanges with Japan, with the possibility of allowing some Japanese companies to establish themselves in Vladivostok to sweeten the deal.
2 - I will support @Kriss but, I will add that it would be convenient to organize a meeting between the nations of the Warsaw Pact and COMECON.
Despite the reforms implemented, things do not seem to be going well in the other communist nations, and if this continues, the situation of a Soviet Union that is economically well, but that is isolated having lost its area of influence, could arise.
3 - First of all, offer refuge and asylum to members of the Burmese Communist Party and the Burmese population who want to march towards the Soviet Union.
Secondly, offer military and logistical support to those who are willing to confront the military as long as they do not attack Soviet interests.
Thirdly, recognize Burma as part of the Indian sphere of influence in exchange for allowing the passage of weapons, equipment and being able to form anti-military factions in Indian territory.
Fourthly, denounce the Burmese situation at the UN and impose a military embargo.
Finally, offer an attempted truce and humanitarian ceasefire so that NGOs and other organizations can access Burma to help the civilian population.
2 - I will support @Kriss but, I will add that it would be convenient to organize a meeting between the nations of the Warsaw Pact and COMECON.
Despite the reforms implemented, things do not seem to be going well in the other communist nations, and if this continues, the situation of a Soviet Union that is economically well, but that is isolated having lost its area of influence, could arise.
3 - First of all, offer refuge and asylum to members of the Burmese Communist Party and the Burmese population who want to march towards the Soviet Union.
Secondly, offer military and logistical support to those who are willing to confront the military as long as they do not attack Soviet interests.
Thirdly, recognize Burma as part of the Indian sphere of influence in exchange for allowing the passage of weapons, equipment and being able to form anti-military factions in Indian territory.
Fourthly, denounce the Burmese situation at the UN and impose a military embargo.
Finally, offer an attempted truce and humanitarian ceasefire so that NGOs and other organizations can access Burma to help the civilian population.
