A True October Surprise (A Wikibox TL)
- Thread starter lord caedus
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Part 35: Mexican presidential election, 2006
...President Vincente Fox, Mexico's first non-PRI president in over 80 years, entered office with some of the highest approval ratings in Mexican history and a sweeping mandate for change. However, Mexicans could not agree on what change precisely was needed and thus Fox and his administration wound up curtailing the president's efforts to institute a value-added tax to raise revenue, something Fox had planned to be the centerpiece of his effort at fiscal reform. Nevertheless, Fox's attempts to make Mexico a leader in Central America by signing free-trade agreements with both Belize and Guatemala and attempting to jump-start talks on a possible Americas-wide (sans Cuba) free trade area ran into opposition both from the United States and leftist governments in Venezuela and Uruguay, effectively ending the agreement for the foreseeable future.
Nevertheless, the United States' tackling of the problem of (primarily Mexican) illegal immigration in the final months leading up to the election and the lack of an economic downturn under Fox led to Fox being able to effectively appoint his successor as PAN's presidential candidate, former Secretary of the Interior Santiago Creel. Creel's primary opposition came from PRD candidate and former Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known affectionately as "AMLO", who campaigned as a left-wing alternative to Creel and criticized Fox's administration for its pro-business tilt and what he described as its "submissive" relationship with the United States during Fox's term. The PRI nominated former Tlaxcala Governor Beatriz Paredes after a surprise primary victory saw Paredes triumph over ex-Tabasco governor Roberto Madrazo. Paredes became the first major-party female presidential nominee in Mexican history and her placement on the PRI's left-wing meant that she ended up taking votes away from López Obrador.
Creel won a small victory, largely owing to Paredes acting as a spoiler for López Obrador, and pledged to accelerate the slow growth to the Mexican economy that had taken place under Fox...
Nevertheless, the United States' tackling of the problem of (primarily Mexican) illegal immigration in the final months leading up to the election and the lack of an economic downturn under Fox led to Fox being able to effectively appoint his successor as PAN's presidential candidate, former Secretary of the Interior Santiago Creel. Creel's primary opposition came from PRD candidate and former Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known affectionately as "AMLO", who campaigned as a left-wing alternative to Creel and criticized Fox's administration for its pro-business tilt and what he described as its "submissive" relationship with the United States during Fox's term. The PRI nominated former Tlaxcala Governor Beatriz Paredes after a surprise primary victory saw Paredes triumph over ex-Tabasco governor Roberto Madrazo. Paredes became the first major-party female presidential nominee in Mexican history and her placement on the PRI's left-wing meant that she ended up taking votes away from López Obrador.
Creel won a small victory, largely owing to Paredes acting as a spoiler for López Obrador, and pledged to accelerate the slow growth to the Mexican economy that had taken place under Fox...
very interesting
im assuming the 2007-8 crash has been butterflied away?
otherwise, im struggling to see how the Hague government is going to cope with the crisis and win the 2010 election
anyway, a very enjoyable wikibox TL, hope you do another one once this one winds up!
im assuming the 2007-8 crash has been butterflied away?
otherwise, im struggling to see how the Hague government is going to cope with the crisis and win the 2010 election
anyway, a very enjoyable wikibox TL, hope you do another one once this one winds up!
Deleted member 9338
The Mexican election is interesting. Waiting to see how the U.S. government will interact with Mexico over immigration.
Part 36: Iranian presidential election, 2005
...Following the intervention by UNSFFI and expulsion of Iraqi troops from Khuzestan, a stable, unified Iranian government emerged for the first time since the fall of the Shah less than five years earlier. Although fighting continued intermittently even after the arrival of UN troops, by and large the disparate factions (followers of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Shah dead-enders, liberals, nationalists, and ethnic minorities) put down their weapons and begun the process of forming a unity provisional government under UN supervision. The constitutional convention to create a new government eventually settled under a semi-presidential system similar to that of France, and the first elections were held in 1985...
President Rafsanjani, who had become the first Islamic Republican to win the presidency in 2000, was by the time the 2005 elections came around, very unpopular. Despite being a moderate Islamic Republican Party (IRP) member, Rafsanjani had an extremely poor relationship with the Majlis (Iran's parliament) and his government had come under harsh criticism both for the discovery and execution of several Iranian spies within Iraq and for corruption as scandals begun to pile up. Rafsanjani fended off potential challengers to be the IRP candidate, opposing former Army General and decorated war veteran Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (candidate of the nationalists) and Majlis member and son of former prime minister Mehdi Bazargan (candidate of the liberals).
As an incumbent president, Rafsanjani was expected to take either first or second place in the first round and face either Ghalibaf or Bazargan in the runoff, but the candidacy of popular Islamist mayor of Tehran Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, combined with Rafsanjani being battered for corruption, led to a shocking third-place finish in the first round for the president, with Ghalibaf and Bazargan advancing to the second round.
Ghalibaf held the advantage throughout the second round, as Rafsanjani and Ahmedinejad voters quickly moved to support him over Bazargan, who struggled to gain votes outside of those of Iran's ethnic minorities who had been the liberals' traditional allies against the nationalist and Islamist parties. Bazargan's campaign attempted to tar Ghalibaf with the brush of scandal over army misappropriations that the Majlis had investigated during Ghalibaf's service, but the former general had only been tangentially involved and the attack failed to gain traction in the two weeks before the second round.
Ghalibaf won a comfortable victory, and became the first Iranian president who had seen frontline combat during both the Iranian Civil War and the Persian Gulf War against Iraq. This would have consequences when Iraq would dissolve into chaos following Saddam Hussein's fall into a coma the next year and the Ghalibaf administration's barely-concealed support of Shi'ite rebels within Iraq...
President Rafsanjani, who had become the first Islamic Republican to win the presidency in 2000, was by the time the 2005 elections came around, very unpopular. Despite being a moderate Islamic Republican Party (IRP) member, Rafsanjani had an extremely poor relationship with the Majlis (Iran's parliament) and his government had come under harsh criticism both for the discovery and execution of several Iranian spies within Iraq and for corruption as scandals begun to pile up. Rafsanjani fended off potential challengers to be the IRP candidate, opposing former Army General and decorated war veteran Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (candidate of the nationalists) and Majlis member and son of former prime minister Mehdi Bazargan (candidate of the liberals).
As an incumbent president, Rafsanjani was expected to take either first or second place in the first round and face either Ghalibaf or Bazargan in the runoff, but the candidacy of popular Islamist mayor of Tehran Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, combined with Rafsanjani being battered for corruption, led to a shocking third-place finish in the first round for the president, with Ghalibaf and Bazargan advancing to the second round.
Ghalibaf held the advantage throughout the second round, as Rafsanjani and Ahmedinejad voters quickly moved to support him over Bazargan, who struggled to gain votes outside of those of Iran's ethnic minorities who had been the liberals' traditional allies against the nationalist and Islamist parties. Bazargan's campaign attempted to tar Ghalibaf with the brush of scandal over army misappropriations that the Majlis had investigated during Ghalibaf's service, but the former general had only been tangentially involved and the attack failed to gain traction in the two weeks before the second round.
Ghalibaf won a comfortable victory, and became the first Iranian president who had seen frontline combat during both the Iranian Civil War and the Persian Gulf War against Iraq. This would have consequences when Iraq would dissolve into chaos following Saddam Hussein's fall into a coma the next year and the Ghalibaf administration's barely-concealed support of Shi'ite rebels within Iraq...
I...didn't notice that either. Huh.
Also, those are the only two "Lorne"s I've ever heard of. Must be a Canadian thing to name your kid that.
Oh, the 2007-2008 crash has definitely been butterflied away. Besides, we've already seen the US in 2008 (from the 2008 election where Riley was elected).
Thanks!
Well, as of now, the US and Mexico have seemingly fixed most of their pertinent immigration concerns with the Immigration Reform Act of 2006, so they won't likely focus on immigration again until the amount of illegal immigrants in the US reach huge levels again.
Thank you very much. I figured I should show how Iran looks ITTL, especially now with them coming back into focus (at least from Washington's perspective) with the chaos going on in Iraq.
Iran?
whats next? France? Australia? Sweden?
Funnily enough, I did have a France infobox planned for the 1990s but I wasn't happy with it so I decided to do the Yugoslavia infobox instead.
NZ? Brazil? South Africa?
NZ? Brazil? South Africa?
Can we please have the 2007 Korean Presidential election?
No, because the Iranian election was the last election of the 2000s that I'm covering before we moving to the final six years of the TL.
Besides, what makes you think that South Korea even has elections in 2007 ITTL?
What makes you think I was talking about just half of Korea.
(But seriously, Korea is still divided. Best Korea has had to weaponize crazy since they don't have nukes ITTL.)
Iran?
whats next? France? Australia? Sweden?
Israel sounds like an obvious choice, though I can't blame Lord Caedus for not wanting to make that mess of a wikibox.
Part 37: Riley Presidency (2009-2012)
...President Riley would be the first Republican president arguably since Theodore Roosevelt who became noted for his economic program when he began pushing for what became known as the "New Covenant". At the heart of the New Covenant was the tax plan that the president had outlined in the 2008 campaign: income tax rates on the lower class and business would be lowered while those on the high-income tax bracket would pay more. The New Covenant's tax philosophy was able to pass through the divided Congress with relatively few changes from Riley's initial proposal, with both parties being able to overlook the parts of the bill they disagreed as a result of the parts they did like.
The second stage of the New Covenant did not fare nearly as well. The president proposed a balanced budget amendment that would require cuts to be made to most non-defense agencies in order to meet with his requirements. While this passed the House with a narrow majority, the Democratic-controlled Senate voted the balanced budget amendment down. Riley, undeterred, tried again in 2010 before the midterms and had a similar result.
President Riley would be the first Republican president since George Bush nearly thirty years before to be able to appoint new justices to the Supreme Court. Shirley Hufstedler opted to retire in 2009 after 38 years on the court, and Riley replaced her with Fourth District Court of Appeals Justice Maureen Mahoney of Virginia. In 2010, John Paul Stevens, the only other Republican appointee besides Mahoney on the court, decided to retire as well. Riley replaced him with Eighth District Court of Appeals Justice Steven Colloton of Iowa.
The midterms saw the Republicans lose seats but retain control of the House while the Democrats lost seats in the Senate but similarly retained control. President Riley agreed with his advisers' assessment that the political situation in Congress had not changed enough to push for the balanced budget amendment for a third time, so he moved on to another plank of the New Covenant. Taking a page from Canadian Prime Minister John Manley, Riley pushed for greater emphasis on technology and science in high schools and colleges. While the high school portion was scrapped in congressional negotiations, the Innovation in Education Act of 2011 has resulted in the a large number of technical and vocational colleges expanding and the American manufacturing and technology sector boom that has continued for the past five years...
On the foreign policy front, President Riley inherited Gephardt's headaches about the Middle East. The replacement of the Hussein regime by a Shi'ite government which looked to Iran and President Ghalibaf had destabilized the balance of power in the region and Secretary of State Zoellick spent a large part of his tenure attempting to calm down Saudi, Jordanian and Turkish concerns about Iranian aggression while negotiating with a difficult supposed ally in President Ghalibaf of Iran.
The Palestinian Intifada claimed a great propaganda victory when recently retired Israeli General Yoni Netanyahu was killed in a mortar attack in late 2009. The death of Netanyahu, who was one of Israel's greatest war heroes and most beloved citizens, enraged the Israeli population and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soon launched Operation Righteous, a counter-insurgency military operation against Palestinian fighters. The harsh methods used by the IDF in Operation Righteous, including abetting officers who authorized torture of Palestinian prisoners and with little concern given to collateral damage when ordering bombing strikes, led to the international community switching from sympathizing with Israel for the shocking loss of a national icon to turning against them. President Riley, despite his support of Israel, condemned what he called an "extreme overreaction by the State of Israel". The victory of a right-wing coalition largely fueled by Israeli grievance with what they viewed as abandonment by their American allies and push to crush the intifada kept American and Israeli relations at their lowest point in history by the time the president came up for re-election...
The second stage of the New Covenant did not fare nearly as well. The president proposed a balanced budget amendment that would require cuts to be made to most non-defense agencies in order to meet with his requirements. While this passed the House with a narrow majority, the Democratic-controlled Senate voted the balanced budget amendment down. Riley, undeterred, tried again in 2010 before the midterms and had a similar result.
President Riley would be the first Republican president since George Bush nearly thirty years before to be able to appoint new justices to the Supreme Court. Shirley Hufstedler opted to retire in 2009 after 38 years on the court, and Riley replaced her with Fourth District Court of Appeals Justice Maureen Mahoney of Virginia. In 2010, John Paul Stevens, the only other Republican appointee besides Mahoney on the court, decided to retire as well. Riley replaced him with Eighth District Court of Appeals Justice Steven Colloton of Iowa.
The midterms saw the Republicans lose seats but retain control of the House while the Democrats lost seats in the Senate but similarly retained control. President Riley agreed with his advisers' assessment that the political situation in Congress had not changed enough to push for the balanced budget amendment for a third time, so he moved on to another plank of the New Covenant. Taking a page from Canadian Prime Minister John Manley, Riley pushed for greater emphasis on technology and science in high schools and colleges. While the high school portion was scrapped in congressional negotiations, the Innovation in Education Act of 2011 has resulted in the a large number of technical and vocational colleges expanding and the American manufacturing and technology sector boom that has continued for the past five years...
On the foreign policy front, President Riley inherited Gephardt's headaches about the Middle East. The replacement of the Hussein regime by a Shi'ite government which looked to Iran and President Ghalibaf had destabilized the balance of power in the region and Secretary of State Zoellick spent a large part of his tenure attempting to calm down Saudi, Jordanian and Turkish concerns about Iranian aggression while negotiating with a difficult supposed ally in President Ghalibaf of Iran.
The Palestinian Intifada claimed a great propaganda victory when recently retired Israeli General Yoni Netanyahu was killed in a mortar attack in late 2009. The death of Netanyahu, who was one of Israel's greatest war heroes and most beloved citizens, enraged the Israeli population and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soon launched Operation Righteous, a counter-insurgency military operation against Palestinian fighters. The harsh methods used by the IDF in Operation Righteous, including abetting officers who authorized torture of Palestinian prisoners and with little concern given to collateral damage when ordering bombing strikes, led to the international community switching from sympathizing with Israel for the shocking loss of a national icon to turning against them. President Riley, despite his support of Israel, condemned what he called an "extreme overreaction by the State of Israel". The victory of a right-wing coalition largely fueled by Israeli grievance with what they viewed as abandonment by their American allies and push to crush the intifada kept American and Israeli relations at their lowest point in history by the time the president came up for re-election...
Deleted member 9338
Interesting that Yoni Netanyahu, lasted till 2009. That is a big butterfly.