A True October Surprise (A Wikibox TL)

OTL Homer Thornberry retired from the appeals court in 1978. wWhen I have him on the Supreme Court, I always have him retire then. t That way President Carter appoints Shirley Hoffstedder.

That's nice, but according to his OTL NYT obituary, Thornberry remained active even on senior status up until a month before his death & I see no reason why he wouldn't do the same on the SCOTUS ITTL.

Plus, Hufstedler is already on the court by that time & if he retired in 1978 ITTL, George Bush would pick his replacement, something I doubt Thornberry would like.
 
Part 22: Wilson Presidency
The Republican wave years of 1994 and 1996 landed both the White House and both chambers of Congress in Republican hands for the first time since 1955, and President Wilson intended to seize on what the party viewed as a mandate for change. The Tax Fairness Act slashed the top marginal tax rates down to nearly 40% while the Welfare Reform Act of 1997 overhauled the nation's unemployment safety net, giving states more control over the program while imposing a ten year lifetime cap (effective January 1, 1998) on the program's availability.

Welfare reform proved to be extremely popular with the conservatives within the party and Wilson, hoping to make a strong showing among the group to prevent another right-wing third-party run in 2000, acceded to demands to co-opt the immigration issue by having Speaker Cheney introduce the Crime and Immigration Control Act of 1997 (CICA). The act, pushed strongly by conservatives from the Sun Belt, was envisioned as an "all-in-one" law that would formalize strict law-and-order policing on a national level and hopefully prevent illegal immigration by making the legal environment for such perspective immigrants unpalatable. The result, however, was that the act shocked the Democrats and political establishment in its harshness and stripping discretionary power on several issues dealing with illegal immigrants using public resources away from states and municipalities (including public education, welfare, Medicare and even providing drivers' licenses or identification cards) and make them subject to the acts' provisions. The act also pushed for strict standards for mandatory sentencing and implementing such laws for almost every felony, again at the expense of states.

The backlash to these acts was immediate and fierce. Hispanic groups notably were outraged and Senate Democrats notably succeeded in forcing several extremely onerous provisions of CICA to be removed, but could not prevent the act from passing. The Supreme Court (where only one justice had been appointed by a Republican president) found even more portions of CICA unconstitutional, effectively nullifying the most egregious portions of it. But the battle lines had been drawn and Wilson, Cheney and Senate Majority Leader Alan Simpson were confident that their legislative program would prevent midterm losses.

While the Senate barely remained in Republican hands (owing to the lopsided amount of Democratic seats up for re-election that year), the plan backfired as minority communities, who they felt had been targeted almost exclusively by the Wilson program, came out in droves firmly on the Democratic side, flipping the House back to the Democrats. Undoubtedly, this was helped by both Cheney's unpopularity with voters as well as the resignations of several high-profile Republicans (notably House Whip Newt Gingrich of Georgia) as a result of scandal.

Somewhat chastened, Wilson nonetheless was able to work with the new Speaker, David Bonior of Michigan, to implement some of his policies, including tort reform and deficit reduction, the latter of which, while popular in the abstract, ended up being disliked by the party's business supporters as it rested on increases on corporate tax rates (while balanced out by decreases in several aid programs beloved by the Democratic base).

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...The president had his hands full with foreign affairs upon taking over from his predecessor. Despite the Bern Accords ending the Cold War, many Americans were not quite ready to accept a defeated Soviet Union and the so-called Baltic Coup briefly rekindled fears of a renewed Cold War. As part of the Bern Accords, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev had agreed to bind the communist state to several international agreements, several of which had declared the Soviet occupation and annexation of the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during and after the Second World War to be illegal. Under pressure from the Wilson administration, Gorbachev reluctantly agreed to give the three socialist republics each referendums on independence. Each of the three, which had become the most restless of the Soviet constituent republics since the 1980s, voted to leave the union and were established as independent states on January 1, 1999. However, the loss of three republics was too much to bear for hardliners in the Soviet leadership and they deposed Gorbachev soon after, with Alexander Rutskoy, a former Soviet general and anti-reform Minister of Defence, being named the new General Secretary. Fears that Rutskoy would abrogate Gorbachev's agreements proved unfounded as the new Soviet leader quickly realized the futility of trying to rewind the clock and instead settled for keeping as much of the status quo as he could in place...

In Asia, the United States under Wilson increased its popularity. Evenhanded American dispute resolutions of both the Taiwan Strait Crisis and the establishment of relations with the government of Vietnam for the first time since South Vietnam's fall in 1977. Africa was a different story. The end of the Cold War had resulted in a rash of regimes, now without the stability brought about by either American or Soviet aid and support, collapsing in the face of popular unrest brought about by these regimes' corruption, brutality and favoritism at the expense of other ethnic groups. The countries that did not either fall or succumb to internecine struggles were soon flooded by refugees and occasionally fighting from neighboring states would spill over. The hallmark of this era was the collapse of Zaire following the death of its kleptocratic strongman, Mobutu Sese Seko, from prostate cancer in 1997. Almost immediately following Mobutu's death, the state fell apart into fighting, with Mobutu's family in the backdrop absconding with most of the country's wealth that the former leader had stolen during his long reign. By 1999, the horrific reports out of Zaire and the neighboring states of Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda had stirred the United Nations to commission a peacekeeping force. The Wilson administration backed the creation of a force, believing that both the Soviet Union and America's allies in the UK, France and Germany would contribute a great deal of troops. This hope was quickly smashed, with only Great Britain, now freed of having to garrison Northern Ireland, contributed a substantial amount of soldiers to the project (France declined to send many soldiers, although not for lack of concern that Republican partisans said- its troops were already scattered across former French colonies in West Africa and in the Horn of Africa as part of other peacekeeping missions).

As a result, American soldiers made up a larger portion of the boots on the ground than the administration had anticipated, and despite private hopes of being able to persuade the PRC to provide troops in order to scale back US involvement, memories of successful involvement in Iran and the broad international and domestic support for military action resulted in the plan going ahead. As such, the United States took the lead when MINUSTAC (Mission des Nations Unies pour la stabilisation au Congo) forces moved in to Zaire in the fall of 1999...
 
This is a great TL. When I saw the PoD I was really looking forward to seeing a TL with no McGovern, but then I got to 1980, and well…
 
This is a great TL.

Thanks!

When I saw the PoD I was really looking forward to seeing a TL with no McGovern, but then I got to 1980, and well…

That's kind of an odd thing to look forward to in a TL.

But anyways, since McGovern was a presidential candidate in 1984 IOTL even after getting curbstomped by Nixon 12 years earlier, I figured that he would run in 1980 ITTL, especially with no epic beat down to his name. Also that the candidates who DID run in TTL's 1980 Democratic race wouldn't have any real idea how the post-1968 primary system works with the Humphrey '72 and Muskie '76 candidacies being coronation affairs so come 1980 the candidate who would the way to really have an effective campaign would be McGovern (who like OTL was on the committee to design a new primary system following the clusterfuck that was the 1968 Democratic primary campaign).
 
Part 23: United States presidential election, 2000
President Wilson had hoped that MINUSTAC would be a rallying point for his re-election campaign and something to which he could persuade Americans not to "change horses in midstream". But, things were not to go as planned. Diplomatic and logistical problems meant that MINUSTAC forces were unable to keep rebel militias and insurgencies from fading into the "bush" and the administration, wary of the sight of American soldiers combing through the jungle looking for enemy fighters bringing about comparisons with Vietnam, drastically undercut the ability of MINUSTAC field commanders to use American troops outside of occupation duty. As such, by summer 2000, the situation in the Congo had become one where the UN forces controlled major cities and nearby regions, while in remote provinces, the bloodbath that had brought UN troops there continued with only limited interruption.

In this environment, and owing to President Wilson being widely disliked among racial and ethnic minorities that made up quite a bit of the Democratic coalition, the Democrats' presidential field was full. Congressman Dick Gephardt of Missouri was best able to appeal to both union voters and the white working-class, although he was only able to become the front-runner after the withdrawal of Tennessee Senator Al Gore and the subsequent migration of Gore primary voters to him. Gephardt eventually won the nomination and decided to make history with the running mate selection, the second time in a row for the Democratic ticket, naming former Governor Ron Brown of New York to be his running mate, making Brown the first African-American on a major party ticket.

Wilson was able to rile up the conservatives in his party by portraying his agenda as being halted by "unelected, out-of-touch judges" in at the Supreme Court, and then revealed his major push for a second term: the revisiting of a free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico that had been abandoned following the election of President Huddleston in 1988. Gephardt immediately promised to fight such an agreement and rallied his union base, with Brown harshly criticizing Wilson for promoting policies that he said "were aimed at pandering to the worst impulses of white Americans".

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President Wilson became the second Republican president in a row to lose his battle for re-election, largely on the back of his polarizing domestic policies and the perception that American and UN troops were not doing anything in the Congo other than risking American blood and treasure. With Hispanic and African-Americans turning out in record numbers for the Gephardt-Brown ticket (the latter of whom making history as the first black Vice President and the first VP with non-white ancestry since Charles Curtis), the Democrats picked up Florida and New Mexico, and thwarting Wilson's efforts to win his home state in his re-election bid, which, twisting the knife even more for Wilson, would have given him a second term had he won it.
 
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Part 24: United Kingdom (1991-2000)
...By 1991, voters were tired of the Conservatives, with the party having been in power for 16 years. Heseltine himself faced the unenviable position of trying to maintain a functioning government with Ulster Unionist support while his leadership rivals spent more time gathering support for an inevitable leadership election once the party lost power than focusing on the next general election, as internal polls had shown the Tories behind since the end of 1989.

Kinnock's stand against the Conservative proposals for local devolution in Scotland and Wales gave the Conservatives one lifeline out of a massacre and the party took it, polling surprisingly high in both Scotland and Wales even as their numbers dipped across the entire kingdom. As such, it was no surprise that the only gains the Conservatives made during the 1991 election were in those two regions.

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Labour won a majority and despite the Democrats' overall vote share decreasing slightly, the third party won seats owing to the reduced Conservative vote share. Heseltine announced his resignation as Conservative leader the following day, having (quite correctly) realized he had no support within the party left after five years at the helm and the frontbench having long since decided he would leave after the election. Kinnock took office as the second Welsh prime minister, ironically being one of the fiercest opponents of a Welsh assembly in the new cabinet.

The new Labour government set about on an ambitious program: school and criminal sentencing reforms, renewed focus on pursuing peace in Northern Ireland, jump-starting work on the British side of the Channel Tunnel project (which had barely begun by the time Heseltine left office) and House of Lords reform. With a working majority of 20, Kinnock's government went to work, bringing British criminal laws in line with European Union standards, and getting the "Chunnel" finished just in time for the 1995 elections. Even more important was, with the mediation of American Secretary of State George Mitchell, the signing of the Belfast Agreement between the UK, Republic of Ireland, and almost all major parties for the loyalist and republican camps. The Agreement set out a comprehensive peace plan for Northern Ireland and ended violence except a few attacks by dead-end holdouts, the last of which occurred in 2002. A referendum, held the same day as the 1995 election, ratified the agreement by both Northern Irish Protestant and Catholic communities and after decades of conflict, peace returned to Northern Ireland.

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The 1995 election result was a rerun of the 1991 results, with Conservative leader Norman Lamont failing to make headway against the government. David Penhaligon, the man who had brought the Democratic Party to new heights, retired afterwards, handing the party over to Scottish MP Charles Kennedy. The government then moved to reform the House of Lords, with the goal of making the second chamber entirely elected. This proved to be too much and Kinnock decided instead to implement gradual reforms, first stripping the right of hereditary peers to sit in the chamber. The hereditary peers (and some of the life peers) stood almost entirely in lockstep against this proposal, threatening to derail the reform. Another compromise was worked out, removing all but 100 hereditary peers instead, alongside limiting the ability of the prime minister to "pack" the Lords by setting limits on the amount of new peerages that could be created on a yearly basis.

The end of the Warsaw Pact and Bern Accords had a great impact on Britain, just like the rest of Europe. Eastern European immigrants, especially former East Germans, moved to Britain from their homelands, which began to cause a backlash, especially among working-class Britons who were the primary competitors of the new immigrants. Kinnock dismissed many of these concerns as lingering bigotries until poll numbers showed that the Conservatives, under new leader Michael Portillo, were making serious inroads into certain Labour constituencies after putting out an anti-Europe manifesto. Attempting to head off this threat, Kinnock came out for a so-called "immigration fee" for potential immigrants from former communist regimes, citing the "fiscal burden" imposed on Britons to accommodate poorer immigrants. This was an unmitigated disaster, with the government quickly backpedaling after the fee was called racist and opponents pointing out that, even if enacted it wouldn't work: former East Germans would still legally be able to move to Britain without such a burden as they were citizens of a fellow EU nation and could not be levied such a fee.

The immigration fee debacle and refusal of Kinnock to consider devolution to Scotland or Wales catalyzed enough Labour MPs to make an aborted challenge to Kinnock's leadership in 1998. The prime minister survived easily, but was shaken in the amount of his caucus and of the party members in general who had backed Ken Livingston, the left-wing stalking horse candidate who stood against him.

With Labour's poll numbers increasingly on shaky ground and with his backbench restless, Kinnock felt he had no choice but to call an early election in 1999 to prevent falling from power. A series of blunders by Portillo and his frontbench team resulted in both Labour and the Democrats staunching their respective bleeding with Labour abandoning its attempts at appealing to anti-immigrant sentiment by portraying the Conservatives as scapegoating minorities for problems that had resulted from Conservative misrule in the 1970s and 1980s and which Labour was working to fix.

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As a result, Labour fell one seat short of a formal majority and lost the popular vote. Due to the abstentionist policies of Sinn Féin, however, Labour had an informal one-seat majority and Kinnock was able to remain prime minister, however he was significantly weakened. The prime minister was able to get parliament to agree to provide troops for the MINUSTAC mission in the Congo, but even this proved to be troublesome, as several embarrassing defections among left-wing members of the party (who viewed the endeavor as being a colonialist venture to gain access to the Congo's natural resources) and other foreign policy specialists (who foresaw the difficulties that would soon plague MINUSTAC from working as intended).

Kinnock, tired and under increasing strain dealing with a knife-thin majority, announced he would step down in 2000 upon the Labour Party electing his successor, after 15 years leading the party and leading Britain for nine....
 
Part 25: Canada (1989-2000)
...Following the 1988 election, the Liberals had been reduced to a minority government despite losing the national popular vote due to their overwhelming strength in Quebec, something that concerned Prime Minister MacEachan. His attempts to broaden the party's reach to appeal to westerners and Ontarians was quickly scuttled when the New Democrats elected Dave Barrett from British Columbia as their new leader, replacing longtime leader Ed Broadbent. Barrett had rejected calls from others in the party to attempt to break the Liberals' stranglehold of Quebec and instead focused on keeping the NDP as the main protest party of the western provinces.

Well short of a majority and with several of his cabinet ministers making plans to challenge his leadership, MacEachan called for an election in April 1990, hoping that Progressive Conservative leader John Crosbie's outspoken nature would give voters pause with putting the PCs back into power.

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Despite the relatively small swing from the election, the large amounts of seats the Liberals had hung on to by thin margins flipped to the PCs in 1990, giving Crosbie the prime ministry and a majority of 18 seats. The appearance of the right-wing Reform Party in Alberta, which won 2 seats, was viewed with suspicion and Crosbie would attempt throughout the life of the parliament to make western conservatives feel at home in the party.

Crosbie's ascension to power had caused a resurgence of Francophone concern in Quebec owing to Crosbie's dismissive responses to his lack of knowledge of French and past opposition to official bilingualism. The Liberals, under new leader Jean Chrétien, attempted to turn this to their advantage, but Quebec leaders, seeing the attention that Reform had brought to the west, instead realized that the Liberals had begun to take Quebec for granted and Chrétien's own unpopularity in the province compounded this sentiment. Jacques Parizeau and other Parti Québécois party officials then gave their official blessing to the creation of the Union du Québec, a federal party that while not necessarily aiming for an independent Quebec, would advocate exclusively for Quebec's interests and seek to keep both provincial rights as well as the protections for the French language that had been won during the constitutional patriation.

Despite his own socially liberal actions (including privately ensuring that gay candidates would get a fair shake at PC nominating conventions, and having a record number of women in his cabinet), Crosbie's "politically incorrect" language became a severe liability as the 1994 campaign got underway. Several statements he had made, especially towards female Liberal MPs, had been viewed as patronizing, which cost the PCs among women voters. For his part, Chrétien's problems with several prominent Liberals (such as former Minister of Justice and now-Senator John Turner) who viewed him as an electoral liability and who continued to work to pick candidates more in the mold of his predecessor, MacEachan.

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Reform and Union du Québec (UDQ) won two seats apiece, but their influence on the election was huge. Reform's presence caused several seats in Alberta and British Columbia to flip to the NDP while UDQ votes caused some Liberal seats to swing to the PCs. Chrétien's problems with some members of his party were revealed by post-election polling to be far less of a concern in voter's minds than Crosbie's controversial statements and, with an election expected to be held in 1996, Liberals were confident that even with Chrétien at the helm, the party would retake control.

Indeed, things seemed to be headed in that direction. Crosbie's popularity continued to fall unabated across many demographics: westerners, women, Francophones and urban Ontario, after he remarked that Canadians from Ottawa and Toronto were less well-liked in his native Newfoundland than Americans, not bothering to say he disagreed. Despite having a popular program among his caucus (including criminal justice reform, relaxing long arms gun control laws and introducing business tax breaks), Crosbie came under increasing pressure to resign, as evidence mounted that his unpopularity would sink the PC hopes for the next election.

The prime minister headed off talks of a leadership review by announcing in March 1995 that he would resign pending the election of his successor. The Progressive Conservatives were then handed a savior when Perrin Beatty, who had long been talked up as a potential PC leader, announced his candidacy and subsequently won. Beatty took over for Crosbie in January 1996, and spent the rest of the year prior to the election doing damage control, especially among female voters and westerners. The Liberals and NDP were content to let Beatty work overtime to prevent an electoral disaster and thus only seriously begun campaigning when a new election was announced for September. But soon, panic began to set in as internal polls showed that more and more voters were returning to the PC fold after the replacement of Crosbie and the Liberals and NDP could only watch as Beatty led his party to first place early on in the campaign and stayed there.

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The results of the 1996 election were a shock to Canadians who, only two years earlier, had predicted that Reform and the UDQ had begun a process of regional breakdown and protest parties that would come to dominate Canada. Both minor parties lost their two seat caucuses and Reform leader Preston Manning would soon lose control over the party he had created during the next parliament. The New Democrats, however, were the biggest loser of the election, losing two-thirds of the entire caucus, including Barrett's own riding of Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca. Chrétien, despite his party making gains, would resign as well after being blamed by Liberals for doing little to stop Beatty's miraculous turnaround of PC fortunes.

With a majority, Beatty turned his attention to implementing his party's agenda. With the election of Pete Wilson in the United States later that year, Beatty had a friendly partner to the south and relations between the United States and Canada improved greatly since the frosty relations that had been the norm following the differences between the two countries were made apparent during the free trade debate in the 1980s. Beatty, even more so than Wilson, was receptive to business' arguments in favor of a free trade deal and pushed strongly for a deal with the United States and Mexico. Wilson, however, was in his first term and was planning to use a free trade agreement as part of his re-election campaign that he believed would force Congress to go allow it to go forward should he win.

Canada, in this spirit of great relations with the US, contributed troops to MINUSTAC, with its Francophone soldiers being godsends to the UN commanders on the ground in the Congo, and among the most popular of the "blue helmets" to the Congolese there. Beatty had planned to call an election in 2000 with internal polls showing a continued PC majority, but the explosive revelations of the De Bané Commission (named after the Liberal senator leading it) that showed massive amounts of corruption in the PC's highly-touted Canadian Business Partnership Initiative (CBPI) that sought to streamline government and business cooperation, including large amounts of "pay to play" used by both government ministers and civil servants attached to the program as well as a litany of other financial transgressions. The backlash was tremendous and Beatty had no choice but to delay calling for a new election...
 
Part 26: Papal conclave, 1993
...Pope Pius XIII's death in 1993 marked the end of the rule of Italian popes over the throne of St. Peter unbroken since the 16th century. The College of Cardinals, after fifteen years of a pope whose non-offensive and action-oriented philosophy, wanted a change of pace, feeling caught up in both the feeling that the Cold War was drawing to an end and also that the time had come for a non-Italian to wear the papal tiara for the first time in over 450 years.

The composition of the college had changed under Pius XIII in a more conservative direction, largely in a reaction to the liberalism of Pius' predecessor Paul VI and thus the only candidates who stood a chance were either theological moderates or conservatives. With no clear successor, the election took three days and it was only on the final ballot of the third day that a new pope was chosen and the election avoided having to be delayed for a day for reflection (much to the relief of the news media covering the conclave).

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The Prefect of the Congregation of Faith Joseph Ratzinger of Germany was selected, a polar opposite to Pius. The church's enforcer of dogma and Vatican insider, Ratzinger, now called Benedict XVI, would be the face of the church into the new millennium, and become known as the pope who largely moved back from the reforms of Vatican II, leading the church in a more conservative direction as well as the pope who (fairly or not) was most associated with the break of the revelations of decades of sexual abuse by priests across the Catholic world....
 
Part 27: Mexican presidential election, 2000
...After decades of one-party rule, Mexico held its first free elections in decades in 1994, although suspicions were not ended by the narrow victory of incumbent Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio. Colosio's term was racked with some of the most difficult challenges Mexico had faced in decades: the conflict with Zapatista rebels in Chiapas that almost threatened to become a full-blown rebellion in the state, the economic crisis caused by decades of poor economic management that resulted in the peso's devaluation, and frosty relations with two consecutive American administrations over American proposals to that countries' immigration system that most Mexicans felt unfairly targeted their countrymen who had immigrated (legally or not) to the United States.

While the situation in Chiapas managed to resolve itself with a minimum of bloodshed, the economic slump continued until 2000 and Colosio was barely able to exercise the traditional PRI incumbent's prerogative in naming his successor as the PRI nominee, in this case, former Secretary of the Interior Emilio Chuayffet. Chuayffet faced former Guanajuato governor Vincente Fox of the conservative National Action Party (PAN) and liberal Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, son of Lázaro Cárdenas, one of Mexico's most beloved presidents of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).

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Fox's charisma and frustration with PRI corruption, economic mismanagement and the perception that the PRI was willing to let the United States spite Mexico and its citizens with impunity led to the first opposition victory since the Mexican Revolution, the symbol of the start of a new democratic era in Mexico...
 
Part 28: Yugoslavian general election, 1992
...Besides Albania, Yugoslavia was the only communist nation in Europe by the 1980s that was not a member of the Warsaw Pact. As such, the end of the threat of Soviet power was not an instant condition for the collapse of communism there, but it was the final condition that lead to the end of the communist monopoly on power in the multi-ethnic Balkan state.

...Following revolts in the republic of Croatia by liberal students in the early 1970s, President Tito set about preparing a new constitution that he felt could keep the six republics that made up Yugoslavia together. Decentralizing certain personal freedoms to the republics, Tito ignored calls for a rotation in office for the presidency (which would take place after his death, for he had been declared president-for-life) and instead planned for a system where his successors would be chosen from the heads of the republics and serve five-year terms, with the mandate that the president's home republic and that of his successor be different. This compromise satisfied enough of the ruling League of Communist leaders that they dutifully followed the constitutional process after Tito's death in 1980 and elected Petar Stambolić of Serbia to succeed him.

Stambolić's presidency (1980-1990) was crucial to the survival of the Yugoslav state. Stambolić moved quickly to react to both nationalistic appeals in the various republics and Western pressure to liberalize in reaction to the dysfunction and eventual death of the Warsaw Pact within his term in office, with US President Dole in particular pushing for Yugoslavia to be squeezed economically to hasten the end of communism there. Ruthlessly cracking down on nationalists that called for various ethnic state's independence, Stambolić's manipulation of the leaders of the party gained him a second term where the leaders who had agreed to Tito's 1974 constitution had felt assured that a five-year informal rotation had been promised.

With Dole's defeat in the 1988 election in the United States, Stambolić got his successor, President Huddleston, to agree to lift the economic sanctions Yugoslavia had received in return for democratization, with free elections to take place in 1992, with the delay being necessary for the transition away from a single-party state towards a democratic republic. When the ban on non-communist parties running in elections was repealed in 1990, the various republics began electing their own leaders.

In 1992, the promised constitutional amendments came into effect, transforming Yugoslavia into a parliamentary democracy. Patterned on the Australian "Washminster" system, the lower house National Assembly allocated deputies by population while the Federal Council granted each republic equal representation, partially as a check on the domination of the state by Serbia or Croatia, the largest two republics by population.

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Ivan Stambolić, nephew of the former president, led the Socialist Party of Yugoslavia (SPJ), the successor to the ruling League of Communists of Yugoslavia, to victory on the basis of both his family name and trepidation on the part of many Yugoslav voters on the reliability of the other, untested candidates. Outgoing prime minister Ante Marković's Union of Reform (SR), the liberal alternative that the final Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) prime minister had founded while in office, lost spectacularly despite Western hopes that the reformist would succeed and continue his push towards quick privatization.

The other parties that made it above the five percent threshold were the Christian Democratic Union of Yugoslavia (HDUJ) as well as the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), both parties with religious tinges to their beliefs (HDUJ being nominally a Christian democratic party but operated as a broad-tent center-right to right-wing party while the SDA was a Muslim equivalent and thus only popular in Bosnia and Herzegovina). The Yugoslav People's Party (JLS), a right-wing party led by psychiatrist Radovan Karadžić, the final party to cross the threshold, advocated for the return of Serbian control of the provinces of Vojvodina and Kosovo (which doubtlessly neither province nor the other republics would grant) and more centralization and a push for socially conservative rollbacks of holdover SFR laws regarding personal civil liberties.

Nevertheless, the democratic process had succeeded and the Stambolić government (a coalition between the SPJ and SR) took power with a multi-ethnic cabinet, setting the stage for Yugoslavia to cautiously move forward into the future and seek to be part of the larger European community...
 
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It's nice to see a successful, democratic, Yugoslavia sometimes. :eek:

I also think one of the last not-so-real elections would be linked in-universe. Just a thought.

Great stuff all around.
 
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Impressive updates all around!

I like what you've done with Canada, specifically the idea that Reform and the Bloc-type party both fail immediately. It's become a bit of a trope, that I'm guilty of myself, that these parties always tend to do well.

Good choices on leaders, also. Too few timelines have used John Crosbie.
 
Impressive updates all around!

I like what you've done with Canada, specifically the idea that Reform and the Bloc-type party both fail immediately. It's become a bit of a trope, that I'm guilty of myself, that these parties always tend to do well.

Good choices on leaders, also. Too few timelines have used John Crosbie.

Meh, we're all generally moderate here, so it's no surprise that we've all typically made Reform and the Bloc collapse.
 
It's nice to see a successful, democratic, Yugoslavia sometimes. :eek:

I also think one of the last not-so-real elections would be linked in-universe. Just a thought.

Great stuff all around.

Thanks. And I'm not quite sure what you mean. If you're talking about Yugoslavia, I just followed the precedent Wikipedia used for the 2000 Yugoslavian general election that didn't link to a previous election.

Impressive updates all around!

I like what you've done with Canada, specifically the idea that Reform and the Bloc-type party both fail immediately. It's become a bit of a trope, that I'm guilty of myself, that these parties always tend to do well.

Good choices on leaders, also. Too few timelines have used John Crosbie.

Thanks.

Regarding the *Bloc and Reform, quite a bit of their failure to make a big impact (well seat-wise) in the 1990s ITTL is the changed circumstances that make the fertile ground that both parties found isn't there ITTL. The west isn't feeling annoyed at the PCs for, in their view, ignoring other regions at the expense of Quebec and for imposing unpopular legislation on them. Similarly, the NDP doesn't pick McLaughlin to replace Broadbent and so they don't take the (ultimately two decades premature IOTL) strategy of focusing on Quebec instead of the west, meaning that party doesn't fall apart like it did IOTL (at least not until 1996 :eek: ). Quebec is also a different animal compared to its OTL situation: its still a Liberal stronghold owing to Horner smashing any chance the PCs had to make inroads there and the symbolic lack of a Quebec signature on the Constitution isn't there ITTL (plus more concessions are granted to Quebec than IOTL owing to changed circumstances regarding patriation).

I'm kind of surprised by the lack of Crosbie, considering he seems like such an interesting character and also was a major contender to succeed Joe Clark in 1983 IOTL.

Meh, we're all generally moderate here, so it's no surprise that we've all typically made Reform and the Bloc collapse.

I think you misunderstood True Grit- he was saying that it's apparently a trope that Reform and the *Bloc tend to do well once they burst onto the scene in Canadian election TLs not that they tend to fail to launch instead.
 
Meh, we're all generally moderate here, so it's no surprise that we've all typically made Reform and the Bloc collapse.

I was saying the opposite, that they tend to do well enough and end up sticking around until the present day. I like that lord caedus is (seemingly) keeping it a three-party system.
 
Thanks. And I'm not quite sure what you mean. If you're talking about Yugoslavia, I just followed the precedent Wikipedia used for the 2000 Yugoslavian general election that didn't link to a previous election.

Some other Communist countries that returned to Democracy (or the first close taste of) still linked their info boxes to their unfree days, if they have infoboxes. I just assumed you would have linked to that, or the last free election, as, say, Lithuania's page did.

Not dissing you or anything, just not what I expected (upon some more research, not all pages do that).
 
Great series of updates. Hoping for Jeb Bush in 2004.

If you check out Bush Senior's infobox, you can tell that Jeb isn't well known by TTL's 2016. So you're going to be disappointed.

Some other Communist countries that returned to Democracy (or the first close taste of) still linked their info boxes to their unfree days, if they have infoboxes. I just assumed you would have linked to that, or the last free election, as, say, Lithuania's page did.

Not dissing you or anything, just not what I expected (upon some more research, not all pages do that).

OK, fine. Edited.
 
Part 29: Gephardt Presidency (2001-2004)
President Gephardt began his term on a high note, enacting a national minimum wage increase and an increase in Medicare funding from Congress. He was also able, very early into his term, to appoint a new Supreme Court justice when Archibald Cox announced his retirement in 2001. Gephardt promoted former Solicitor General Walter E. Dellinger III of North Carolina to the bench, the first time a non-judge had been appointed since Cox joined the court 26 years previous.

Then he had to turn to foreign policy, having left the Congo to his cabinet while he concentrated on domestic policy while the iron was hot. Very little could be done until Gephardt and UN Secretary-Generals Boutros Boutros-Ghali and his successor, Amara Essy, succeeded both changing the operational parameters of the Congo Stabilization Force (CSF, MINUSTAC's military division) and enlisting the help of more African with peackeeping and occupation duty, freeing up Western soldiers to search for rebel holdouts, although this came with the drawback of increased American casualties and expenditures, which made the Congo effort even more unpopular.

The creation of the Internet in the early 1990s had led to an explosion of start-up companies and business ventures as businesses and consumers headed on-line alongside increasingly large numbers of Americans. With regulators struggling to regulate the new businesses and both the Republican-controlled House and President Wilson in favor of leaving the new medium with loose regulations, it came as no surprise to savvy financial analysts that in late 2001, the bubble burst as large quantities of start-ups that investors had thrown money at had made very little and some were being investigated for egregious fraud. The economy was further hurt when it became clear that the result of the Energy Freedom Act that President Wilson had pushed through was that private companies had bilked municipalities out of billions of dollars following the government incentivizing switching to private energy companies.

While President Gephardt and Congress quickly walked back energy deregulation as the executives of several large energy suppliers were brought to trial, the damage the "Internet bubble" had done had put the United States into a recession, with unemployment reaching 8 percent in early 2002. Efforts to shore up the economy quickly was not enough to prevent Congress from falling back into Republican hands, with the GOP sneaking into the majority with 51 seats.

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The latter half of the presidential term started out rocky for Gephardt. The brutal repression of ethnic fighting in the Caucasus by the Soviet Union gave the West pause and the relationship with the Soviets cooled as a result. A hostile Congress prevented Gephardt from doing much in the way of domestic policy, although Republican leaders, consciously avoiding high-profile fights with the president that had characterized the last two years of the Huddleston Administration, managed to have cordial relations with Gephardt and a good working relationship developed between Gephardt and Speaker Dan Coats.

Mid-2003 saw an extraordinary turnaround for the Congo as the CSF's strategy of continual harassment and isolation of guerrilla bands saw almost all of them collapse by this time and the leaders came out of the jungle to take part in peace talks with Congolese officials, mediated by the UN and US State Department. The near-overnight change caught everyone outside of CSF command and the Defense Department off-guard and the withdrawal of almost all American troops by the subsequent December following the Kinshasa Agreement saw the president's approval ratings shoot up nearly twenty points from immediately prior to the end of hostilities.

The emergence of the issue of gay marriage and gay rights became an issue as well when, after the Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on same-sex marriage in Vigano v. Holder and state legislatures began to weigh in on the issue. While the president came out in favor of civil unions instead of full same-sex marriage, he listened to the advise of his aides and did not push the issue as it drew close to 2004.
 
Part 30: United States presidential election, 2004
For most of the three years following the loss of the White House to the Democrats, the Republican front-runner had been former Vice President Lamar Alexander of Tennessee. Wilson's vice president, despite proving himself as an able vice president and governor, was viewed as a dull moderate who could not inspire voters to ditch a president who had strong approval ratings following the turnaround, and subsequent victory, in the Congo. That's when a challenger appeared.

Former First Lady Elizabeth Dole had become a senator for her home state of North Carolina during the same election that had brought Pete Wilson to the White House and had emerged as one of the most popular Republicans in the country. When Dole announced her candidacy, it quickly turned the race from an Alexander coronation into a slugfest between the two lead candidates. Alexander's strengths of having executive experience and being able to appeal to moderates was blunted by Dole's ability to appeal to appeal to both moderates and conservatives while also making inroads with female voters, a huge priority for the GOP. The campaign soon devolved into vicious mud-slinging as Super Tuesday provided no clear winner. The absence of former President Dole (who was 80 years old when his wife began campaigning) from much of the campaign trail led to nasty rumors of marital trouble between the former first couple and the Dole campaign retaliated by drawing attention to shady real estate deals Alexander may have been involved in during the gap between his service as Tennessee governor and selection by Wilson for the vice-presidential spot.

Dole finally came out on top in April after swinging around to Alexander's right, with the former VP suspending his campaign and endorsing the former First Lady, making Dole the first ever female presidential nominee of a major party. To reassure moderates and independent voters as well as provide a direct contrast to the Democratic campaign, Dole selected South Dakota Senator Larry Pressler, whose reputation for integrity and pragmatism were unmatched, as her running mate.

President Gephardt, as expected, won his party's nomination uncontested except by a few perennial candidates and cranks. Vice President Brown had by this time become a liability to the campaign after damning news broke of improper deals and finance irregularities from when Brown was New York's governor. Although debate raged within the Gephardt campaign on whether to keep the embattled VP, Gephardt made the decision to drop him from the ticket, the first time since 1944 that a sitting vice president had been denied renomination on his party's ticket. Gephardt selected former North Carolina governor Jim Hunt as his new running mate and, as a gesture of loyalty to Brown, publicly refused the suggestion that he ask Brown to resign (which constitutional lawyers pointed out, Brown, alone out of all cabinet members, could refuse when asked by the president).

Dole's selection of a moderate, even one as well-liked as Pressler, led conservatives in her party concerned and she defied conventional expectations and did not move to the center post-convention in order to prevent conservatives from voting third-party or sitting home. Hitting the president for corruption and blaming him for the Internet bubble, Dole squandered any gains the GOP had in the Hispanic community by saying she would continue Wilson's legacy, including a revisited push against illegal immigration and undocumented workers within the United States. Gephardt struck back, pointing to the success in the Congo, the economic turnaround and bashed Dole for what he called "punitive measures" against illegal immigrants.

Gephardt held a small lead throughout the campaign after the replacement of Brown, and the Dole's campaign all but ensured that the president would win reelection as a result of one of the infamous "Rainbow" advertisement. The ad, which showed Gephardt receiving the endorsement of the Gay and Lesbian Alliance, attempted to play on anti-gay and anti-transgender prejudices to smear the Democratic campaign. The fierce backlash that resulted caused the campaign to pull the ad and fire its media director but the damage had already been done.

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The twin damages caused by the Rainbow ad and the Dole campaign's support of harsh measures against illegal immigrants within the United States led to a Gephardt electoral college blowout and a comfortable win in the popular vote. Hispanic votes for Gephardt, as a response to a second straight Republican campaign pushing for strict measures against illegal immigrants, swung Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona (which had not voted Democratic since 1948) to the Democrats, leaving only Colorado (where strong campaigning by Pressler towards the end of the race narrowly averted a Democratic win) and ruby-red Texas as the only states with a sizable Hispanic population not to fall into the Democratic column. The presence of small right-wing third parties on the ballot also gave Gephardt a surprise victory in Arkansas. The House also just went back to Democratic control, but President Gephardt's coattails, were not long enough to swing the Senate and indeed the party actually lost a seat overall as a result of retirement of open seats formerly held by conservative Democrats in the south.
 
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