What if the Soviets won the battle of Warsaw? (1920)
- Thread starter nik2016
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Poland would defiantly fall to communism, becoming a Soviet puppet state. Germany would probably fall to communism as well, becoming a soviet ally.
An Oklahoman
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The Western Allies would intervene to stop Germany from going Red. Germany could potentially use this scenario to obtain permission to re arm and renegiotate reparation payments. Likely a Second World War would occur right then and there against the Red Army.
You think that after the slaughter of WW1 public opinion in Germany, France, Britain and US were ready for a new global war?
An Oklahoman
Banned
When the alternative is having all of Europe fall to communism, the public would be more than willing to engage in a campaign against the Soviets.
The British and French public were overly war weary whilst America was retreating back into isolationism, there were already strikes going on against western support for the Poles and Whites. As happened in IOTL the western allies would likely tolerate Germany keeping large numbers of Freikorps militia active when they were explicitly fighting Bolsheviks but they were already winding down their own direct involvement when the fate of Warsaw was in the balance.
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It's important to keep in mind that the Red Army of 1920 wasn't the juggernaut that overran Europe in 1945, but rather the post-WWI Imperial Russian army that still wasn't quite finished fighting amongst itself, and had serious shortages of everything. I'm not convinced they could have pushed any further than Poland by force, and in Germany the SPD was too strong to be overcome by Communists, especially after the failed Spartacist uprising. So, apart from Poland getting crushed under the USSR's heel, I'm not sure the immediate consequences elsewhere would be so dramatic.
Meanwhile, the Germans would certainly ask to be allowed to rearm, and probably do some more reorganization and training in secret if possible, but otherwise, I dunno. The French would probably drag their feet on saying yes to that, and as a Soviet invasion of Germany fails to materialize, the sense of danger would recede a bit.
Meanwhile, the Germans would certainly ask to be allowed to rearm, and probably do some more reorganization and training in secret if possible, but otherwise, I dunno. The French would probably drag their feet on saying yes to that, and as a Soviet invasion of Germany fails to materialize, the sense of danger would recede a bit.
Against Communists who were going to steal their money and take their power,yes.They just have to convince their people there's a reason to do it.
Stalin was in Poland, he'd be all to willing to do something bloodthirsty and stupid,smart money says he executes a few thousand nuns.
You shouldn't underestimate the massive disillusionment with the entire war that had just happened. Once it was over at the sense of emergency had passed, people took stock of all of the losses, the hollow propaganda that had suckered them into it, and decided "Fuck, nothing could be worth this." There's a reason the Kellogg-Briand Pact to try and end all war took off in the 20's, people had had enough of being treated like expendable sheep by up their ass politicians with pretensions to realpolitik. So to go before the public, while some of the secondary conflicts are still raging, and tell them, "We've got a new enemy to fight and they're totally evil, guys! Come on, this'll be a quick and easy one!" It's not gonna go too well.
Unless the Reds cross Germany's borders, I'm not sure they'd be allowed to send the Freikorps the other way in numbers. Hell, maybe not even then.
And gets invaded by France for violating the territorial clauses of Versailles?
nah, people are sick of war, and they certainly don't want to restart spilling their blood for the sake of Poland.
This gets said a lot, but I am a bit sceptical. As it is, the Soviets were already facing food shortages, localized rebellions and other problems at home in 20-21. With conquering and occupying Poland, they would be extending their at that point quite limited resources even further. That they would in this situation, having to occupy Poland on top of everything they were doing IOTL, reopen the predominately already concluded hostilities with the Baltics (and Finland) is IMO not at all a foregone conclusion. Taking Poland does not only make the Soviets stronger, it is also a resource drain and it creates more anti-Soviet feelings and opposition in Germany as well as Britain and France, likely to realize as interventions. As I see it, in 1920 the Soviet domains badly needed peace to start slowly recovering from many years of war and chaos. Trying to push it with taking even more of Eastern Europe could well end up in the internal fragmentation and at least wide destabilization if not collapse of Russia and the young Soviet system. Revolutionary zeal might for some time replace the need for cohesive national support for your military efforts at home, in terms of all the materiel and logistics considerations, etc, but it will only go so far before we'll start to see the cracks appearing.
It might not be wrong to say that in some ways losing in Poland was actually a boon for the Soviet state, as it showed some of its limits, directed its efforts inwards and made it start boosting its domestic strength for future challenges from the outside world.
Deleted member 94680
Whilst being War-weary was certainly a thing, we are talking Communist Russia attacking, conquering and moving through Poland. The avowed goal of the Soviets was to conquer Poland to allow access to Germany and turn them Red as well. This is a threat to the stability of Europe. This isn't Lloyd George attempting to keep WWI going by supporting Greek expansionism, nor is it localised border wars in the aftermath of Versailles.
My gut would be that Freikorps would be allowed to operate in large numbers in the East of Germany, maybe geographically limited, with even expansion of the Heer allowed. Once the Red menace is suppressed, disarmament would recommence and the Freikorps would be disbanded. After all, the WAllies used Freikorps in the Baltic (at least initially) against Communists instead of their own troops.
My gut would be that Freikorps would be allowed to operate in large numbers in the East of Germany, maybe geographically limited, with even expansion of the Heer allowed. Once the Red menace is suppressed, disarmament would recommence and the Freikorps would be disbanded. After all, the WAllies used Freikorps in the Baltic (at least initially) against Communists instead of their own troops.
Stalin was a Chief Political Commissar for South-Western Front during that campaign