What if the Soviets won the battle of Warsaw? (1920)
- Thread starter nik2016
- Start date
March into the rest of Poland, yeah. March into Germany, again, I don't think they could.
If they march into Germany, they will most likely lose. Taking Warsaw is already a bit of a stretch. If they try to go at Germany, they might just do the Germans a favor. They can legally mobilize and strike back, inflating their army with Freikorps troops. This might also allow them to push back and take some territory in the east.
Edit: just had another idea. Let's say the Germans fight back and occupy territories in the East, driving the reds out, with open fighting still ongoing in Danzig between Freikorps and Russian supported communists.
The French occupy the Ruhr immediately, even though global public opinion mostly favors the Germans. This happened during the 1923 occupation, but there Poincaré limited their goals as he wanted to keep Britain in the Entente. In this case, he does no such thing, and this drives a wedge between Britain and France.
Could this lead to the survival of the Weimar Republic? Perhaps even becoming a British ally?
Edit: just had another idea. Let's say the Germans fight back and occupy territories in the East, driving the reds out, with open fighting still ongoing in Danzig between Freikorps and Russian supported communists.
The French occupy the Ruhr immediately, even though global public opinion mostly favors the Germans. This happened during the 1923 occupation, but there Poincaré limited their goals as he wanted to keep Britain in the Entente. In this case, he does no such thing, and this drives a wedge between Britain and France.
Could this lead to the survival of the Weimar Republic? Perhaps even becoming a British ally?
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Actually under Versailles Germany cannot legally mobilize, ever!
100000 it is, war or peacetime...
Stalin was stationed in Poland and the West was terrified of Communists.
Fair enough. But they can inflate their numbers with Freikorps. Not sure how large though, but the Soviets were really at the edge of their rope at Warsaw.
But if Poland goes red does it need a corridor? Will it be "independent" or part of the Soviet Union? In latter case the answer is no. In former most likely no.
And Germany in the whole situation: They should liberate Poland with Freikorps or whatever so Poland can take their territory. I just say its pretty easy to find excuses for Germany not to save Poland. Maybe the parts of it they want - Danzig etc. But they wont save those for Poland.
And Germany in the whole situation: They should liberate Poland with Freikorps or whatever so Poland can take their territory. I just say its pretty easy to find excuses for Germany not to save Poland. Maybe the parts of it they want - Danzig etc. But they wont save those for Poland.
Yup, the Germans are screwed here if they follow the terms of the ToV.
Soviet's can just wait rebuild their logics and attack. Germany under the ToV is a helpless nation in the face of real armed aggression as it can't build up its army for war. The German militias will be rather ineffectual against the Red Army once the Russians are ready to move forward after swallowing Poland.
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Not sure if they can save all of Poland. Even Danzig and the border areas might be a bit of a stretch and would result in the French occupation of the Rheinland. But once the USSR consolidates its grip on Poland (excluding Danzig and other border areas), the Wallies would find themselves in the situation where they have to support Germany (at least to an extent) or in a few years the Soviets might just simply overrun it. This could mean a plebiscite in Danzig, which might give them a good excuse to give it back to the Germans. If Weimar proves stable, they might use it as a bulwark against Communism. Much like the FRG, except this state will come to eclipse them much faster than West Germany did. Earlier Cold War, maybe?
What is sure is that any plebiscite in Danzig would alienate Czechoslovakia and embolden Hungary.
In 1919 the Reichswehr was still at a strength of 400,000 men. This was reduced to 200,000 men by April 1920 and by October the Heer was at a strength of 150,000 (excluding Reichsmarine and Freikoprs). Accordingly, if allowed the Heer had a large pool of trained manpower and could have been rapidly brought back to strength. Additionally, the Inter-Allied Commission overseeing the destruction of war material in Germany only began its work at the end of 1919 and I suspect that the majority of German war material remained undestroyed when the Polish-Soviet war reached its critical phase.
So, some general thoughts: this would be a conflict of the exhausted. The Russians are in a shaky position, but the other powers are also war weary and have already accrued too many deaths as well as major economic debts and burdens. I would argue other nations could dedicate token forces against the Soviets, but not many more, and certainly they would be weary of extending a World War further. The Soviets would be an existential as well as a physical threat to the rest of the world. The World War is easily construed as a conflict of bickering monarchists, and even a second war with Germany could be construed as the same. Communism, however, is a known and feared threat even in the United States. I wonder if there would be an early form of appeasement in regards to the Soviets. I also wonder if the doorstep threat of Communism would embolden the right wing in Germany. I am not even referring to the Nazis, but rather traditional conservative forces in Germany. The Nazis may get washed out as a result of a mainstream monarchist-in-all-but-name-and-kaiser government. It may also pressure the United States to remain more active on international affairs.
Deleted member 94680
So it seems a Soviet attack in Poland would run out of steam soon after Warsaw, victorious or not. So would:
- Defeating the Polish at Warsaw would end the war or not?
- The Soviet aim be to push on to Germany or was it just propaganda to conceal a desire to return Poland to the 'empire'?
- A defeated Poland be absorbed as a SSR or puppetised as an 'independent' republic?
- The Soviets leave Danzig alone to avoid antagonising the LoN and WAllies?
If anyone is planing to take this POD up and make a timeline out of it these threads might be of interest:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/what-if-the-red-army-captures-warsaw-in-1920.200193/
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/1920-the-fall-of-warsaw.314499/
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-fall-of-warsaw-and-the-rise-of-europe.92749/
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/what-if-the-red-army-captures-warsaw-in-1920.200193/
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/1920-the-fall-of-warsaw.314499/
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-fall-of-warsaw-and-the-rise-of-europe.92749/
Well, going by that page, it looks like most Allied troops were gone by late 1920, except for the Japanese, who'd probably use the excuse to stick around longer than OTL. Assuming they could afford the continued occupation, of course.
Even with the French elections, domestic concerns rated higher than discontent with Versailles - heck, the same was true in Germany.
So I'm sorry if you got the impression that I was saying that Versailles discontent was a dominating issue in any of those elections.
.I can totally see this happening.
I wonder if the Soviets would make a deal to partition Poland with Germany in the theory that they can make whatever deals they like, the revolution will spread and they'll get everything in the end anyway.
An earlier and stronger alliance between the Soviets and an authoritarian right-wing Germany could be fascinating.
fasquardon
CaliGuy
Banned
My educated guess is that Poland becomes a Soviet puppet state while Germany is able to expand back to its 1914 borders in the East. Also, if the Soviets try to expand into Germany, the Freikorps would certainly aggressively fight them. Indeed, if the Freikorps are unable to halt the Communists, the Entente would probably have to intervene; after all, they couldn't afford to allow a Communist mega-bloc to develop in Europe, now could they?
CaliGuy
Banned
If the Soviets were smart, they'd go for this. Indeed, the 1914 border appears to be a good partition line between Germany and the Soviets in Poland in 1920-1921 in this TL.
Also, I wonder if Germany will try playing off the Bolsheviks and the Entente against each other in this TL in order to extract maximum concessions for itself from each of these; indeed, any thoughts on this?