What if the Soviets won the battle of Warsaw? (1920)

What if Danzig appeals for German protection and the Soviets just let the Freikorps march in, as they didn't want confrontations with the Germans. France would likely let it slip.

How could this affect the future of the Weimar Republic?
 

Deleted member 94680

What if Danzig appeals for German protection and the Soviets just let the Freikorps march in, as they didn't want confrontations with the Germans. France would likely let it slip.

How could this affect the future of the Weimar Republic?

Unlikely that the Soviets would let the Freikorps just march into Danzig if the City appeals for help.
Unlikely that France would just let it slip.
If this does happen, then the Polish Corridor is pretty much dead, unless the WAllies demand the Germans withdraw after the Soviets are repulsed. Would victory against the Soviets wipe out the need to overturn Versailles if the Germans regain territory in the East? Depends on what happens after the Soviet invasion is beaten back (or not, obviously). How do the WAllies respond to Germany 'saving' Europe? Allow them to retain what they've gained, or force a return to the post-Versailles, pre-soviet war situation?
 
Unlikely that the Soviets would let the Freikorps just march into Danzig if the City appeals for help.
Unlikely that France would just let it slip.
If this does happen, then the Polish Corridor is pretty much dead, unless the WAllies demand the Germans withdraw after the Soviets are repulsed. Would victory against the Soviets wipe out the need to overturn Versailles if the Germans regain territory in the East? Depends on what happens after the Soviet invasion is beaten back (or not, obviously). How do the WAllies respond to Germany 'saving' Europe? Allow them to retain what they've gained, or force a return to the post-Versailles, pre-soviet war situation?

Think about it: in this particular situation, the Entente has to choose between the Soviets and the Germans. The third option is themselves landing troops in Danzig, which they are probably not keen on doing.

I think if the Germans gain Danzig, they would not likely give it up, and I'm not sure the French and English public would want to go to war over it, seeing that they just saved the city from the communists.
 
How do the WAllies respond to Germany 'saving' Europe? Allow them to retain what they've gained, or force a return to the post-Versailles, pre-soviet war situation?

It's unlikely that it would be framed in terms of the Germans 'saving' Europe but it's not too much of a stretch to see the WAllies allowing Germany to keep the corridor. It would actually help solve one of the main problems with Versailles, that the balance of power in Eastern Europe had been altered in Germany's favour, by giving the Soviets a greater role in the area. Removing the corridor allows greater potential to maintain that new balance of power.
 

Deleted member 94680

Think about it: in this particular situation, the Entente has to choose between the Soviets and the Germans. The third option is themselves landing troops in Danzig, which they are probably not keen on doing.

I think if the Germans gain Danzig, they would not likely give it up, and I'm not sure the French and English public would want to go to war over it, seeing that they just saved the city from the communists.

Agreed, but the City is League of Nations administered territory, not part of Poland. If the Soviets have besieged or have conquered it, it would be a challenge to LoN authority. If the Germans retake the City and refuse to hand it back if requested, that would be a challenge as well. During the period discussed, it had a British High Commissioner.
 

Deleted member 94680

It's unlikely that it would be framed in terms of the Germans 'saving' Europe but it's not too much of a stretch to see the WAllies allowing Germany to keep the corridor. It would actually help solve one of the main problems with Versailles, that the balance of power in Eastern Europe had been altered in Germany's favour, by giving the Soviets a greater role in the area. Removing the corridor allows greater potential to maintain that new balance of power.

Well D'Abernon had the Polish victory as his 18th decisive battle of the world, would an ATL German victory not take that place?

Also, if the soviets have defeated Poland, what had happened to the Interallied Mission? If they had been captured or killed, how would that affect WAllied attitude to the Soviet aggression?
 
Agreed, but the City is League of Nations administered territory, not part of Poland. If the Soviets have besieged or have conquered it, it would be a challenge to LoN authority. If the Germans retake the City and refuse to hand it back if requested, that would be a challenge as well. During the period discussed, it had a British High Commissioner.
Hm, you're right, totally forgot about that.

How about this: as Warsaw falls, communists rise up in Danzig (and other cities in the region). The British garrison is in danger of losing control of the situation as the German veterans of the city quickly start forming local Freikorps to counter the Reds, and the Allied forces present are either overstreched or are held back to certain parts of the city (protecting embassies, and such). With the whole thing spiralling very quickly out of control, the Germans decide to step in, and with the clandestine approval of the High Commissioner, move troops to the city. The initial idea is that they only come in to restore order and abide by the LoN mandate, but it's obvious to everyone that it's going to be hard to make them leave in the future, as the city population receives them as liberators. Furthermore, the Soviets are now in a peculiar situation, as if they want to assist the communists in the city, they would have to face not only the Germans, but the Entente as well. They don't have the strength to challenge either.

After Poland becomes a communists Soviet satellite, the best solution to keep the balance of power is to have the Germans keep Danzig, albeit with some extra assurances, such as a token Entente force present and special autonomous rights for the city.
 
Well D'Abernon had the Polish victory as his 18th decisive battle of the world, would an ATL German victory not take that place

It would depend on the nature of the battle, the 'invincible' Red Army would be at the end of its tether and although many Freikorps unites would love the idea of joining in a beta 'Crusade against Bolshevism' I can't see the Reichswehr or the Weimar coalition wanting to join them. So a few skirmishes probably end up as a historical footnote in what would likely lead to an earlier version of the Treaty of Rapallo.

Also, if the soviets have defeated Poland, what had happened to the Interallied Mission? If they had been captured or killed, how would that affect WAllied attitude to the Soviet aggression?

If they're captured I'd imagine the delegates would eventually be sent back, if they were killed I imagine the Soviets would privately apologise and discipline those responsible. It would be a real challenge to the developing cynicism of both sides in regards to talking to each other but a public apology doesn't help either side in the long run.
 
Against Communists who were going to steal their money and take their power,yes.

No.

Poland was already seen as a lost cause by the British, and really the British would be much more comfortable with the Soviets (who they were sure would soon fall and be replaced by a nice normal Russia) occupying it rather than some "dangerous expansionist state". (Really, the British had a huge bee in their collective bonnet about Poland. It makes for great comedy reading today.) The French, while more pro-Polish, weren't going to act without British backing.

Whilst being War-weary was certainly a thing, we are talking Communist Russia attacking, conquering and moving through Poland. The avowed goal of the Soviets was to conquer Poland to allow access to Germany and turn them Red as well. This is a threat to the stability of Europe. This isn't Lloyd George attempting to keep WWI going by supporting Greek expansionism, nor is it localised border wars in the aftermath of Versailles.

My gut would be that Freikorps would be allowed to operate in large numbers in the East of Germany, maybe geographically limited, with even expansion of the Heer allowed. Once the Red menace is suppressed, disarmament would recommence and the Freikorps would be disbanded. After all, the WAllies used Freikorps in the Baltic (at least initially) against Communists instead of their own troops.

And does your gut realize how hated the Germans were after WW1?

The British government would want the German state to remain strong, as would the American government (not that it would act), the British people, French people and American people would likely see it as a bunch of barbarians fighting another bunch of barbarians or worse. There will be those who will relish the thought of evil Germany getting its just deserts under a Bolshevik bayonet and there will be those who will see the Russians bringers of civilization.

Not that the Bolshevik armies could reach this far - if Germany falls to the Reds, it will fall to German Reds. The Russian Reds don't have the resources or logistics to drive into Germany.

When the alternative is having all of Europe fall to communism, the public would be more than willing to engage in a campaign against the Soviets.

Ha. Ha.

The Western public hadn't been exposed to 70 years of anti-communist propaganda and 70 years of hearing news of communist atrocities.

They were, however, very familiar with the incompetence and atrocities of their own governments. They're not going to fight the Russians because their governments tell them to.

IMO:

For the Soviets to win requires a miracle - probably one that involves Stalin not being in this area and the Bolshevik army having more competent leadership. So it's possible, but it would leave the Soviets with no gas in the tank.

Also, to invade Germany would require a change of rail gauge, so their logistics are constrained by more than only distance.

Poland could be occupied, but the Polish territories won't be quiescent. The Soviets will need a fair sized garrison.

Czechoslovakia would welcome the Soviet occupation of Poland (the Czechs were very anti-Polish and very pro-Russian - though this may - may - change as the stories of refugees from Poland spread). The Czechoslovaks may occupy some border areas - for example, they claimed all of Silesia and may take the opportunity to grab Polish Silesia.

I really don't see Germany being allowed to take back any land from Poland. As I mention above, the Germans were hated back then. If Germany goes east, my bet is the French and Belgians threaten to annex the Rhineland between them unless they pull back and disarm their illegal army.

As for Germany itself... Might the arrival of the Red Army on the border trigger a Communist uprising in Germany? Maybe. Though enough of the German Communists disapproved of the Bolsheviks that the Red Army being on the border may discourage their participation in any uprising. If there was a revolution, would it be a serious one? Again, I don't know, but I doubt it. The most dangerous German revolts were in 1918 and 1919, the Russians are arriving a bit late.

So it is possible for Germany to go Red, but IMO not likely. A failed revolution might have interesting effects if the Soviets support it (almost certain to happen, though I doubt Russian troops would cross the German border - only volunteers, supplies and weapons) so the Rapallo pact may be butterflied.

A successful German revolution, on the other hand, likely means that Germany loses the Rhineland to an Entente supported "white Germany". Further, we might see Red Germany join the Soviet Union (in which case Russian control of the Soviet state is very much undermined) or we could see Germany and Russia decide that they are better remaining as two separate states (IMO more likely). Either way, both Russia and Germany would need to trade together heavily due to the rest of the world isolating them. Likely this would work out to the economic advantage of both. Almost certainly "Red Germany" and "Red Russia" would have ideological arguments - this could have interesting implications for the evolution of communism around the world, instead of two ideologies of the far left (Communism and Socialism) there would be three (Communism, Socialism and "Germanunism") but the states supporting two of them would be co-dependent even as the argued vociferously.

I think DrakonFin is right about the Baltic states - they're more vulnerable, but the Soviets had made peace and are pretty close to being clapped out. I think Lenin will leave them for the future.

It might not be wrong to say that in some ways losing in Poland was actually a boon for the Soviet state, as it showed some of its limits, directed its efforts inwards and made it start boosting its domestic strength for future challenges from the outside world.

I'm not so sure. After Poland fell, I would tend to think that they would realize they were stretched to their limits anyway.

An attack on Danzig or Romania might be possible, I suppose. I would have thought that defeating the Whites in Russia itself would have had a higher priority to those however.

An attack on Danzig or Romania could get rather interesting, depending on the details.

fasquardon
 

Deleted member 94680

And does your gut realize how hated the Germans were after WW1?

Not as hated as many accounts would have us believe, otherwise how do you explain the Dawes Plan, the Locarno Treaties or even the German's inclusion at the Genoa Conference?

The British government would want the German state to remain strong, as would the American government (not that it would act), the British people, French people and American people would likely see it as a bunch of barbarians fighting another bunch of barbarians or worse. There will be those who will relish the thought of evil Germany getting its just deserts under a Bolshevik bayonet and there will be those who will see the Russians bringers of civilisation

I don't think many would see it as barbarians versus barbarians. The Soviets would be labelled as barbarians, almost certainly, but the Germans more likely anything from the defenders of Europe (or Christendom) to the nation of philosophy and music.

I really don't see Germany being allowed to take back any land from Poland. As I mention above, the Germans were hated back then. If Germany goes east, my bet is the French and Belgians threaten to annex the Rhineland between them unless they pull back and disarm their illegal army.

It all depends how far the Soviets get and what kind of government forms in Soviet Poland (if any). Again, the Germans weren't 'hated' as such, otherwise the gradual reduction of Versailles wouldn't have happened the way it did. The French might threaten actions in the Rhineland but that would almost certainly be opposed by Britain, all Germany would have to do would be to face East continuously.
 
Germany will make an attempt to regain the 1914 borders, it just has to.
Chancellor Fehrenbach at the time, we never talk about him...

So what could imagine: Sovietrussia reaches the pre-war border and that's it for now; Lenin is aware that the communists in Germany are not strong enough (yet) and that another war with Germany is to dangerous.
Germany controls the lands, but if the government is smart enough, does not officially annex them.
They are part of the German custom zone and Germans there are allowed to vote for the Reichstag. Villages and towns remain their local save-ruling. Polish refugees will be permitted, as long as they stay in the border region, maybe there is even a Polish government in exile.
So technically the treaty of Versailles is not violated.
Black Reichswehr troops in that area are not counted into the 100000 limit.
Danzig becomes an oddity, still de jure under League of Nations control, but de facto German. Maybe a bit like Berlin(West) in OTL, simply taking over every Law passed in the Empire.

The Wallies tolerate this, since the alternative would be for that area to become part of the Polish SSR.

Regaining the East is a huge moralic victory for the Republic.
 
Not as hated as many accounts would have us believe, otherwise how do you explain the Dawes Plan, the Locarno Treaties or even the German's inclusion at the Genoa Conference?

None of that happened in 1920. In 1920 people were still voting out governments for going too soft on the Germans at Versailles.

Regaining the East is a huge moralic victory for the Republic.

Which is exactly why the old Entente will react. And if the Germans make a Polish puppet state to legitimize their reconquest of Prussian Posen in the East, France can do the same in the West.

fasquardon
 

Deleted member 94680

None of that happened in 1920. In 1920 people were still voting out governments for going too soft on the Germans at Versailles.

Which governments would those be then?

Also, the Genoa Conference was 1922, Dawes was 1924 and Locarno was 1925. Are you saying there was a complete sea change in attitudes towards Germany in the two years between '20 and Genoa? Attitudes in governments mostly made up of people in power (government or opposition) in '20?
 
None of that happened in 1920. In 1920 people were still voting out governments for going too soft on the Germans at Versailles.



Which is exactly why the old Entente will react. And if the Germans make a Polish puppet state to legitimize their reconquest of Prussian Posen in the East, France can do the same in the West.

fasquardon

Rheinrepublik?
Didn't work out in OTL.
So I doubt that will change here.
All that Ruhrkampf mess.
If France occupies the Ruhr in 1920 it will do it without Britain, that will likely decide both countries. I am pretty sure that Britain considered Soviet Russia more dangerous than Germany in 1920.
 
Which governments would those be then?

The 1920 elections in France and the 1922 elections in Britain.

In the US, the Republicans were crucifying Wilson for Versailles as well as the war.

I'm not sure how big an issue this was in Italy and Belgium.

Also, the Genoa Conference was 1922, Dawes was 1924 and Locarno was 1925. Are you saying there was a complete sea change in attitudes towards Germany in the two years between '20 and Genoa? Attitudes in governments mostly made up of people in power (government or opposition) in '20?

There was a big change. Mostly because the European economy crashed due to the Americans sucking out the liquidity of the continent and the damage of WW1 catching up with everyone.

Since keeping the tumbscrews tight cost money, all the Entente governments to some extent relaxed about enforcing Versailles.

Rheinrepublik?
Didn't work out in OTL.
So I doubt that will change here.

I think in the situation where the Germans are expansionist again, the British would be more willing to tolerate France, Belgium and Italy pursuing an anti-German policy in the Rhineland.

I am pretty sure that Britain considered Soviet Russia more dangerous than Germany in 1920.

I disagree.

British attitudes towards the Soviet Union in this period are weird.

Now, if the Soviets successfully invade Germany, well then you'd see British policy become pro-German in a hurry. But Poland? Poland (in the minds of the British) belongs to Russia.

fasquardon
 
I disagree.

British attitudes towards the Soviet Union in this period are weird.

Now, if the Sovietssuccessfully invade Germany, well then you'd see British policy become pro-German in a hurry. But Poland? Poland (in the minds of the British) belongs to Russia.

fasquardon

I might underestimate the allied reaction und their fear of Soviet Russia.

But I stand by the assumption that Weimar Germany will not lean back and watch the Red army occupy former German territory.
 
I might underestimate the allied reaction und their fear of Soviet Russia.

But I stand by the assumption that Weimar Germany will not lean back and watch the Red army occupy former German territory.

You're right in assuming they'd want to. The question is whether the National Bloc in France would allow that.
 

Deleted member 94680

The 1920 elections in France and the 1922 elections in Britain.

In the US, the Republicans were crucifying Wilson for Versailles as well as the war.

I'm not sure how big an issue this was in Italy and Belgium.

Well maybe the French elections can be said to be a rejection of going softly on Germany, but I disagree with you on the '22 British elections being about that. The Conservatives were all about "no new adventures" whereas Lloyd George, if anyone in British politics, was the 'hard line' candidate. Wilson in America was more about withdrawing from overseas commitments rather than being too soft on the Germans, there were even complaints about being too favourable to the British.
 
You're right in assuming they'd want to. The question is whether the National Bloc in France would allow that.
Maybe just Freicorps units.

France: Remove them
Germany: This are not our troops
France: They are German, make them retreat.
Germany: They will not follow our orders, shall we mobilize the Reichswehr to make them?
France: No, if you cross the border this is a violation of Versailles
Germany: So this is a Polish problem
France: No
Germany: But you told me that this area is Poland now
France: Yes of course
Germany: So it is Not our Problem
France remains silent and occupies the Ruhr
 
Maybe just Freicorps units.

France: Remove them
Germany: This are not our troops
France: They are German, make them retreat.
Germany: They will not follow our orders, shall we mobilize the Reichswehr to make them?
France: No, if you cross the border this is a violation of Versailles
Germany: So this is a Polish problem
France: No
Germany: But you told me that this area is Poland now
France: Yes of course
Germany: So it is Not our Problem
France remains silent and occupies the Ruhr

Maybe more like:

France: You say you can't remove them. Buck up and have more confidence in yourself. Just in case the problem is motivation, we'll camp out in the Ruhr for now, let you sort out the other details. If you need to send Reichswehr across the border to apprehend these rogue mercenaries, just make sure they're all back in Germany once the mess is over and we'll be on our way.
 
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