I am salivating at the prospect of the Great Votive War. It will be epic...

Seems like Rome will continue to grow in power and scope to be in such a position where it can launch such attacks. In any case, for such a war to be plausibly waged, they would need the help of both the Visigoths and the Franks.

With the Visigoths also weakened due to raiding and civil war, I wonder if the Isidorians will send aid in exchange for greater influence over Hispania.
 
I am salivating at the prospect of the Great Votive War. It will be epic...

Seems like Rome will continue to grow in power and scope to be in such a position where it can launch such attacks. In any case, for such a war to be plausibly waged, they would need the help of both the Visigoths and the Franks.

With the Visigoths also weakened due to raiding and civil war, I wonder if the Isidorians will send aid in exchange for greater influence over Hispania.

I THINK he's going for a Roman state in the West as opposed to the utterly cliched Byzantium. I for one approve of this.
 
Nobody's Business but the Turks
Spare us the trade of the Northmen

The Western Slavs faced no small amount of pressure from external forces. With the arrival of the Xasar in the Pannonian basin, they found themselves in a vice of sorts - pressed by the steppe peoples and the Franks. This threat would however provide the impetus for the formation of larger, stable states and strong regional identities. However, unlike in prior decades it was not the tribes most under threat which formed the backbone of these polities but rather the Polans and Obodrites. Neither faced many direct threats, and both had been spared the brunt of sporadic Frankish and Xasar aggression. However, the pressure upon their neighbors and the relative safety of their heartlands allowed them to exert their power over their neighbors, reinforced by the cultural predominance of the Obdorites, whose market-towns and temples provided an economic and religious heart to West Slavic society.

Of these new kingdoms, the Polonian Kingdom was the far greater in size, sprawling across the Vistula and Oder basins. However, it was also the looser organized - the Knize of Polonia was hereditary but expected to answer to his nobles to a degree that the Dravan-Kniaz of the Obodrites was not. Only formally established in 732, several years after the vicious raids of Prince Mahijada, the Polonian kingdom took advantage of the widespread fear of the Xasar-Sahu migration to bind its nobility closer, but the kingdom for many years would be almost more of a mutual defensive alliance than a nation.

Both of these kingdoms did some small-scale trade with the broader world. Along the coast, market-towns flourished, trading with the Geats and Balts. Entrepreneurial merchants, Norsemen, Balt, and Slav alike built small but seaworthy ships to transport wares, making a small but meaningful profit. These voyages, which were commonplace and routine by the middle of the seventh century, brought to the Norse tribes a broader understanding of the world beyond their shores, and an understanding of the wealth that lay beyond. Their Danish cousins had raided the Obodorites in the past, but the spoils of these raids did little more than adorn a few mead halls.

Now, the broader world became a part of the Norse consciousness, and the timing could not be more auspicious for the Norse. The population of Scandinavia had been growing rapidly, and this rapid growth could not be sustained. Accordingly, within many communities a strong impetus would develop to explore and expand across Europe - a divided, warring continent filled with opportunities for plunder and conquest. The earliest recorded "Viking" raids date to 770, on a monastery in Northumbria. Between 780 and 790, the Obodorites along the coast would suffer frequent attacks - their trade towns would be looted, their holy sites destroyed. These raids did little permanent damage - oftentimes these towns would be restored within a matter of months, often by Norse traders.

Not all contact was so violent. In 789, the Viking explorer Jorulfr the Black would sail up the Dnieper and encounter the "Kirikan" Turks. He would return home in a ship heavy with strange treasures - notable among them a small golden statue of the Buddha, decorative ivory horses, and a quantity of finely made Persian swords. Another expedition would reach Asta Regia on the Hispanian coast in 803. In 775, the city of Heithabir [Hedeby] would be founded and quickly grow into a major trading center on the Jutland pennisula.

These great expeditions would foreshadow an era in the north which is aptly named the "Viking Era", but for the time being, their impact was limited. Few sources from the period give any mention to these early Norse expeditions, and Europe as a continent saw itself fundamentally centered around the Mediterranean.

A Clash of Civilizations?

Just to the south of the Polans, the north scarcely factored in to the politics and culture of the broader region of Pannonia, where society was at a crossroads. Some [fictional] historians of later eras would speak of Pannonia as a place where a true clash of civilization would occur. They describe the Xasar-Avar civilization, defined by eastern influences, pluralistic and dominated by Indian religious thought and Sino-Turkic material culture, coming into conflict with the Romanized Slavs, universalist and monotheist Christian. They define this as the first of many such conflicts between Eastern and Western culture.

This theory is not wholly accurate. The Slavs and Avars by 740 were not two distinct peoples. The Avars of Pannonia and the Morava river basin owed much of their culture to the Slavs. Many had become largely sedentary and abandoned the nomadism these traditional scholars attribute to them. Frequently, the difference between Slav and Avar was simply one of political and religious allegiance - to a Christian Prince or a Pagan (or Buddhist) Khagan. The Avar culture in many respects by this era was more homogenized than that of the Slavs, who retained a more tribal identity. Where the name Avar had come to incorporate many peoples, the Slavs referred to themselves by a more local identity. The Avars in particular are difficult to define. They had Christians among their ranks, and the veneration of Christ and the Christian God, albeit in a deeply heretical, often polytheist framework, was not unknown.

In 738, Prince Vladimir of the Pyritzans did what his father and grandfather had refused to do - he acknowledged the growing Christian congregation within his lands and he himself converted to Christianity, traveling on a grand pilgrimage to Rome which doubled as a chance to visit Florentia. Awed by the luxurious splendor of the Roman capital, he bound the fate of his people to the Romans, becoming a federate tribe. His southern cousins, the Smolyani and the Croats, nominally under the Avar yoke, did the same in 742 and 743 respectively. For them this was merely a recognition of a truth established far earlier by the Roman expeditions into Dalmatia, and solidified by the threat of Xasar raids into their territory. Penetrating too deeply into the interior and risking direct confrontation with either the Avars or the dominant Grand Principality of Sklavenia was a risk the Romans were unwilling to take over Illyria, and as such they governed it purely indirectly.

Even as the decade of the 730's had seen the position of the Christian Slavs vastly improved, the Avar civilization given new life by the arrival of the Xasar. This is not to say that Amurtay Khagan's weakness was remedied - the new strength of the Avars, which cowed the Slavs to their north and restored Avar control along the Danube largely benefitted the Eftal Prince Mahijada and certain Xasar chieftans, notably the "Satrap" Tonyuwar. Indeed, when Amurtay Khagan passed away in 741, he named Tonyuwar his successor and thus the Khagan - while some Avar clans might have been displeased, they were now outnumbered significantly by Xasar, and most saw in Tonyuwar a strong Khagan who would benefit them as much as he would his own people.

But before Amurtay Khagan's body had even cooled, the Slavic tribes along the Danube rose in rebellion, appealing to the Sklavenian Autocrat, Boris, for aid. They shared a similar culture, language, and religion with the Sklaveni to the south, and it seems that the Sklaveni had long considered the tribes and cities of the Danube already their northern frontier in fact if not in law. The death of Amurtay merely provided a convenient excuse and a distraction. While the Xasar contested this, there was little they could actually do. Tonyuwar was more concerned with maintaining his core territories - conceding the lower stretch of the Danube, a region he never could have hoped to occupy, was an acceptable loss in his mind. He contented himself with the knowledge that Xasari clans could now raid the territory with relative impunity.

However, within four years he would be driven to war with the Sklaveni nonetheless. The council of Mahijada and a large faction of his vassal clans spoke in favor of such a war, arguing that it was necessary to safeguard the Khaganate. Furthermore, they believed the Sklaveni were disunited. The Grand Prince was an old man, and notoriously cruel - more hated than beloved. His son, Simeon, the likely successor, was distrusted by many of the nobility after having spent five years as a hostage in Srem. War was thus declared, and the aging Boris took the field.

The battle was a disaster for the combined Xasar-Avar army. At a place called Stipon Gate, the Xasar fell into an ambush. The bulk of both armies never saw combat - the terrain favored a series of small engagements - but Mahijada was killed in the fighting and Tonyuwar was lucky to escape with his life. Boris marched northwest along the Danube until he reached Srem, which he besieged for several weeks before conquering and leveling the city entirely, carrying off the treasures accumulated by the Avar Khagan in their years of raiding and plunder.

As Tonyuwar rallied his forces, he knew that this could well be the end of his reign. Mahijada had been invaluable as an advisor and a diplomat. With Srem destroyed and his army humiliated, he had few options left. His people had fled the Khirichan, but now he turned to them, sending an ambassador, twelve of his finest horses, and a letter begging for aid in which addressed the young Shiqar Khagan as "Lion of the Steppe and Universal Ruler", hinting at a willingness to submit himself and his people to the Turks in exchange for revenge upon the Sklaveni.

Shiqar Khagan took the hint, perhaps more literally than Tonyuwar had intended. According to the Slavic chronicles, he rode west with some twenty thousand mounted warriors. The ruin of Srem was retaken, and Boris would die of natural causes two weeks, never awakening after a night of heavy drinking. His army would carry on without him, now under Simeon, acclaimed Autocrat by the nobility after a hasty funeral. However, Simeon was not able to gain the confidence and trust of his vassals. Frustrated by this lack of respect, he determined to seek a pitched battle with the Khirichanid horde. Shiqar was more than happy to offer battle, and after a feigned retreat caused the Slavic cavalry to become separated from their main host in violation of Simeon's strict orders, the Slavs were defeated badly.

The Turks swept into the Balkans proper, devastating the countryside and carrying off much plunder. However, they were unable to translate this into any conquest. The many hill-forts and walled cities of the region, and the numerous peasants capable and willing to take up arms against them meant that any campaign was fundamentally one of hit-and-run. The Slavic state would endure. Their nobles, having learned a brutal lesson about not fully supporting their Prince, would not rebel but instead would harass the Turkic raiding parties in turn.

Tonyuwar's decision had cost him his independence. While relatively autonomous, he was forced to offer subordination to the Khirichan. The Xasar-Avar state would survive but as a tributary to the Turkic Khaganate. It would not recover lost territory, either along the Danube or in Illyria.

And yet Pannonia was well positioned. If the Xasar and Turks had learned anything from their campaign it was that there were great riches to be found in Europe. The countrysides were dotted with monasteries and towns which were not all as defended as those in the Balkans. The Christ-worshipping heathens who surrounded them were ripe targets for future raids.
 
Awsome update!

I am really loving the Sklaveni and i have high hopes for how they develop in the future. The clashes with the Turks and Xasar-Avars are very interesting and have really gotten me thinking on how much of a bulwark the Byzantine Empire actually was IOTL.

You finally got around to the Vikings! Been looking forward to that for a while now. The impact of semi states among the western slavs on the Vikings are going to be interesting especially in regards to whether it triggers earlier centralization in Scandinavia. Additionally the Turkish Khaganate in the Ukraine is probably going to speed up the process of bringing riches and raiders northwards.

I look forward to the next update!
 
The Slavic Danube (with Avar-Xasar heritage) is quite as fascinating as the immensely powerful Khirichan Khaganate, and I also like the idea of Obodrites playing a much more active role in the quarrels and developments of the Baltic space over the next decades and maybe centuries.
 
Thanks guys!

You're right, Zulfurium, the Byzantines if nothing else delayed and redirected a lot of migrations. Here Europe will not be so lucky.

The Vikings were inevitable without more serious butterflies, and I hope to at least do them in an interesting and original way. Which means a lot more research, as I'm sadly lacking in my knowledge of Norse history.

The Kirichan will have a much bigger effect on Europe than their Sahu predecessors. Also I was just reading about how the area of OTL Bohemia was originally settled by peoples that have been identified as ethnically Avar. I'm not sure how certain that is but it's an interesting thought for the alt history - especially as the Xasar have mostly confined their settlement to broad open plains.
 
Arabia and Africa
Eastern Mediterranean

The trends in the Eastern Mediterranean during the middle of the eighth century can be described as a process of recovery and synthesis of traditions. Unlike in Pannonia, where the nomadic Iranian culture met Hellenized Christianity with violence, in Rhom, because of the undisputed dominance of the Eftal in the military sphere, the large Christian subject class was forced to compromise. The Procopian movement gradually died out as Eftal rule became more and more the norm. The Rhomian Shah Datuvahya spoke Greek fluently, although with a thick Eftal accent.

Under Datuvahya's weak and hedonistic rule, the Shahdom nevertheless managed to flourish. The mercantile cities, and major ports profited immensely from the fall of the Mauri. It was their merchants who would dominate the seas, bringing goods from Crimea to Italy to Egypt to Africa. The Eftal (both the Bulgar and Slavic elite were legally considered such as well) tribal landholders along the vast inland terrain saw a population boom. Anatolia was a fertile region, and in the absence of any major military threat, the generation spanning from 720-740 saw enormous population expansion. This demographic shift would transform inland Anatolia and cement the power of the Shahdom. However, it would also cause tensions with the Alans.

Starting around 735, the Alan Khagan, Samosisa began to regard Datuvahya's Shahdom as a distinct threat to his power. Where previously the two regimes had enjoyed comfortable relations, one of the major grievances between the two states had always been low intensity communal violence brought on by the semi-nomadic subjects of both states. With the Eftal population rising dramatically, this would become an even larger issue. Datuvahya's attempts to restore relations were viewed as a final straw for a weak monarch. He was murdered by his sister Stayidh in 738 and replaced by brother-in-law, Varshirakh Taladhna.

Varshirakh opted to resolve the border conflict with violence. A year after Datuvahya's death, in response to an incursion by Alan raiders he declared war. At first, the war seemed over before it had begun. The Alan capital of Ankyra was far, far too close to the border to be defended, and a rapid attack by Varshirakh saw it fall within weeks. Khagan Samosisa fled along with whatever family and valuables could be moved. With Ankyra taken, the Eftal took their time sacking the city and the surrounding countryside, selling many into slavery and looting the famous Church of Wisdom. This delay allowed time for the Alans to gather in force.

Inconclusive engagements would define the period of 739-742. It was not until Varshirakh appealed to the mercantile cities that he was able to tip the balance in his favor, drawing up another ten thousand citizen-soldiers. These Roman soldiers turned the tide of the battle. Varshirakh was forced to acknowledge the utility of the vassal cities and grant them additional privileges, but it had been worth it. The Alan Khaganate was broken in battle as Samosisa attempted to retake Ankyra. Large portions of their territory were stripped away and given to Eftal landholders, and the Alans were made to pay tribute to the Eftal.

To the south, Egypt saw a similar phenomenon of cultural synthesis. Distinctions between the Hellenic and Coptic population had been gradually dissolving for some time, but into the mix was thrust Arab and some Persian influences. Alexandria retained its status as a shocking and cosmopolitan city, playing host to merchants from across Europe. A visitor to the enormous port city could see Sahu traders bartering with Saihist Arabs or Savahilan travelers visiting the famous Library (a pale shadow of its antique self but impressive nonetheless).

The Eftal elite continued to assimilate. Hvarabad [alt Fustat] was renamed Hesanopolis, and continued to remain the Royal residence. Timotheos passed away in 731 and was succeeded by his son Dioscoros Hesanos. His legacy would be as a builder and a reformer - making changes in the tax policy during the famine of 727 to alleviate the burden on farmers and redistribute the tax burden onto the mercantile class. The most enduring of his construction projects were a series of monuments commemorating the deeds of his ancestors in a style typically reserved for the deeds of saints and holy men. While some in the Church would see these as blasphemous, they formed propagandistic fabricated analogies between the trials of some of the earliest Heshanids and the trials of ancient Biblical figures which often inspired the common people, who already saw him as a hero.

The Heshanid trade apparatus would shift somewhat in this time period - riverine trade up and down the Nile became increasingly important as the Makurian aristocracy developed a desire for crafted finished goods, Egyptian papyrus, and horses. This in turn would link the Mediterranean to the Western African peoples, who for the first time were coming out of their relative isolation and beginning to take part in global change.

Arabia and Africa

Arabia, and the Saihist community in general would spend much of the seventh century consolidating and further defining themselves. It was a period of existential soul-searching and charismatic movements which were born, died, and rediscovered over the course of mere generations. An isolated and esoteric cult, their religious beliefs and vibrant displays earned them few friends either among the iconoclastic schools of the Awha Albudhia (Arabian Buddhism) in the south or the large Jewish population in Yemen - both of which they ruled and would come to have a profound effect on. The Jews of Yemen in particular were willing, under religious reformers such as Ibrahim ibn Azizur, to consider Alilat as a sort of angelic consort of their God. This would in turn isolate a portion of the Yemeni Jews from their brethren across the world, but it enabled the Jewish population to join the community of believers. Access to the title of "Believer" was an enormous blessing - it elevated their role in society above that which it had been under the Hadhramut. For the Saihists, accepting the Yemeni Jews reinforced social cohesion and weakened any chance of them becoming a potential third column.

Another thing that would reinforce the Saihist dominion even in this period of internal definition and redefinition was the fact that the Hadhramut hegemony was coming to an end. A combination of climate changes and poor water use would destroy many of the great plantation cities of the interior. The collapse of several great dams allowed crucial reservoirs to deplete and not recover. The Hadhramut community would endure of course, but it would do so largely as a diaspora, integrating with the Savahila. The spice trade would survive, albeit reduced. Much of this new demand would be picked up by the Hawiya in [Somalia] within the years to come, but in the short term the middle of the eighth century saw the price of Arabic spices rise dramatically. The great mercantile guilds across the Indian Ocean reached new and extravagant heights of wealth and prestige.

The new South Arabia was one of desert nomads, isolated entrepot cities, and Buddhist monasteries. Those parts of the country which retained their fertility were limited, and this broke the back of the landholding aristocracy. Land surveys from the time period suggest that small farmers regained pre-eminence, growing small plots of spices and incense in addition to growing edible crops and raising livestock.

The Hawiya to the south were on the rise, and this was only accelerated by the decline of Arabia. The Hawiya monarchs ruled a cosmopolitan crossroads of civilizations and trade - and this trade made the Hawiya fantastically rich. No longer would they need to raid or use brute force or hydraulic monopolies to assert dominance - with time their tools became more refined and subtle. Primitive but functional bureaucracies were developed, to handle tariffs, land, and water rights. As all of these things were essential to the Hawiya society, the bureaucracy had essentially absolute power. The tribal society that existed before crumbled in the face of their regulation. Under Shah Varsaame II (735-758) the Hawiya enjoyed a golden age of uninterrupted prosperity. A patron of the Awha Albudhia, Varsaame nevertheless maintained tolerance to the large pagan, Jewish, and Saihist communities within his kingdom.

If the Hawiya were cosmopolitan, were still shockingly inward-looking in some crucial regards. The world came to them for their goods and their prime location. Varsaame and his successors did not need to travel beyond their splendid rural palace. They were patrons of art and science and beautiful buildings but it was fundamentally the art, science, and monuments of other cultures and peoples. Knowledge of the broader world and its multitude of philosophies inspired the creation of universities, perhaps the greatest among them being the House of Wisdom in Amoud. Staffed by Saihist priestesses, it was a temple to knowledge above all other things. However, the Cushitic culture of the Hawiya was overwhelmed by this multitude of foreign influences. Like many peoples of Africa in this period, the elite in particular chose to embrace foreign thought and aesthetics over their own.

To the north of the Hawiya, the other great power of northeast Africa ruled along relatively similar lines. Makuria was under the sway of an absolutist monarchy maintaining a firm grasp on the Nile with the help of an intricate priesthood-bureaucracy, ostensibly Christian but with a somewhat unorthodox pantheon of local "Saints". Very much inspired by Heshanid Egypt, they had the same preoccupation with monumental building and opulent displays of wealth. Theirs was a fertile and prosperous kingdom, capable of asserting hegemony over what remained of Axum and the other petty kingdoms to their south. However, their contact with the Hawiya was limited - evidenced by only rare exchanges of goods and few reported travelers. Both states remained at each other's peripheries and had little interest in changing that.

The Makurian Kingdom was only adventurous when it came to the west. The first Coptic missionaries reached Kanem in 734, where they were received politely but cautiously by the Kings there. Trade with this broader world was facilitated through intermediaries - chief among them the Daju tribe of [Darfur]. As the trickle of foreign trade mostly consisted of rare caravans tracking along river courses on great roundabouts, peoples such as the Daju provided welcome respite for weary travelers and a chance to acquire fresh provisions.

For these first explorers, the world beyond their knowledge must have seemed vast. In the marketplaces of Kanem they could hear fascinating stories of wondrous golden kingdoms far to the west and great cities in the utter south. But travel was dangerous to those who did not know the land intimately. Feuds between local potentates were commonplace in the nearby area, and this lack of central control meant that bandits with access to horses could ride down caravans with contemptuous ease and take their precious cargo. Only large expeditions had a guarantee of safety, and those with spare money to pay bribes. The Kings of Kanem claimed divine supremacy over a vast area but in practice their supremacy was limited and their protection was not extended to these bright-eyed missionaries from the north. Though they would make some converts, most expeditions would turn back at Lake Chad, their camels nevertheless heavy-laden with Ghanan gold.

The first explorers from Savahila would arrive shortly thereafter, in 758. Theirs was a longer, even more perilous journey, up the great lakes and many of the same rivers along which the Makurian missions traveled. Decimated by disease and raids along their route, these Savahilan traders still brought back tales of the advanced and wealthy civilizations that lay in the west. Their words would inspire maritime voyages, seeking the same western kingdoms by what might be an easier route. These voyages would be numerous and well-sponsored, but few would reach their destination, though several would find useful harbors along the southern coast of Africa - harbors that would in due time eventually become resupply ports. The first successful navigation would occur in 788. Inspired by a desire to find the "Gold Cities", the Malik of Mzishima outfitted a fleet of five "great ships" under the command of legendary navigator Shiraya Raosata. Only two of these ships would return, but they would locate the city of Tekrur, the capital of a people who called themselves Fula.

The spread of the Savahila inward reached roughly its maximum extent in 750. As a civilization they were simply too dependent on coasts and rivers to stretch deep into the interior. Their isolated inland forts came under the rule of the growing Sahs of the Kwadza, the predominant people in the southwest. The Kwadza had simply been the first and most successful at utilizing their trade connections and turning them into practical advantage over their rivals and neighbors, seizing the most fertile territory and the best grazing grounds with iron weapons and armor. Their "conquests" would however mark a hard limit on the Savahila expansion - at times Mzishima attempted to recover their inland forts but this was ultimately a futile endeavor.

To the north, by 800 the Rutara-Ganda civilization had begun to develop sophisticated urban settlements with thousands of inhabitants. They dominated the "Four Coasts" of Lake Nyanza [Victoria] and significant trade and missionary contact is evidenced by finds of Arabian incense and Savahilan pottery in the homes of local elites.

To the southeast, on the "Island of the Moon" the Izaoraika society in the eighth century entered into what historians call the "Mandala Era". The feudal, tribal patchwork that had dominated the island since the arrival of the first austronesian settlers gave way to a centralized state. The last holdouts of the tribal system, the Antaisaka and the Sihanaka were conquered by 720. Hindicization continued apace - a limited selection of Hindu gods were merged with traditional deities, and the framework of Tantric philosophy continued to be in vogue among the elite, although there are some questions about how deeply it penetrated the lower classes, who remained largely polytheist and traditionalist.

The Izaoraika monarchy, the Sakalavaraja, would turn outwards for their first time in its history. During the long reign of King Rajasoanalamira 724-767, the Izaoraika turned to large-scale shipbuilding themselves, copying Savahilan and Indian designs, finding particular favor with the twin-hulled Tamil craft which perhaps reminded them of their own vessels. As the population grew, unchecked by the twin evils of raiding and crops unsuited to their environment which had historically held it back, the Izaoraika would seek their fortunes elsewhere. Bands of young Izaoraika would set sail for Arabia and the Persian Gulf as mercenaries, traders, and settlers. The more adventurous would establish coastal communities along the coast of East Africa, attempting to repeat the Savahilan successes.

[I know I'm covering a lot in these posts and not always in a lot of detail. If anyone has any questions or wants me to expand upon a topic, I'm always happy to do so.

Also, any commentary on the plausibility of this all? It seems to be ancient Arab ships were sufficiently impressive for the task, but it is perhaps a bit of a stretch. I may choose to retcon this if people think I've gone to far. Keep in mind that these contacts are famous because they're the first but that doesn't inherently imply an age of discovery or anything radical like that. I expect that contact over the sea will be sporadic and rare.]
 
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While I certainly think the Savahalian maritime voyages are pretty awesome, having one of them arrive in West Africa at this specific time period is still a stretch, certainly not enough to bring a profit. Isn't there a current off the coast of South Africa that made it difficult for ships of the time to be able to navigate?

Then again, I don't know much about the Arab Age of Discovery or how ships really work.

You might want to ask someone like DValdron about this kind of subject; he wrote both the Thule Timeline and Green Antarctica, which covers a lot about ocean currents and ship technology.
 
There is, but I believe it's doable, if difficult. It would likely involve some degree of luck, which is why I'm considering this isolated but notable contact - not to mention there isn't much infrastructure in West Africa to support trade in any case. Plus I think the Arabs in this timeline would have a better knowledge of the area than say, the Europeans of our timeline when first trying to figure it out.

What makes me a little nervous is I'm doing this bit largely cause I, like you thought it sounded awesome when I realized it might be possible. Not necessarily cause it's entirely plausible.
 
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There is, but I believe it's doable, if difficult. It would likely involve some degree of luck, which is why I'm considering this isolated but notable contact - not to mention there isn't much infrastructure in West Africa to support trade in any case. Plus I think the Arabs in this timeline would have a better knowledge of the area than say, the Europeans of our timeline when first trying to figure it out.

What makes me a little nervous is I'm doing this bit largely cause I, like you thought it sounded awesome when I realized it might be possible. Not necessarily cause it's entirely plausible.

The way I think of it is like this. While it may be possible for us to go to the moon or Mars with our current technology, the cost and risk it would take to just get there is far greater than the profits. Because of that, it'll still be about a couple hundred years before we have moon or Mars colonies.

Is that an appropriate analogy?
 
I think so.

As a prestige voyage it does make sense. The Mzishima Malik can point to his other peers and say "look what my city did, this is why we're the best" and bring back some exotic stuff. As anything more, it makes less sense.

As far as trade routes, everything, even overland is still a trickle. The more viable, much quicker routes are north-south, not east-west. I had given almost no thought to colonies of any sort - the Savahila are too thin on the ground to colonize their own backyard, let alone a massive venture into West Africa.

The Izaoraika have interest in planting a "colony" of sorts around OTL Maputo, Mozambique, but that's because they feel they're getting taken advantage of by foreign merchants (and likely are) and there's a lot of young men eager for adventure. Any ambitious Izaoraika Raja who dealt with the home front would invariably turn outwards.
 
Turkic Sikander
Oadhya - the fading star of the latter Eftal

By 720, few in the Oadhyan Empire could remember any other system. Those who could recalled only the apocalyptic anarchy of the "false Saosyant" and the years of division and endemic warfare beforehand. The Oadhyan Empire was safe and prosperous by comparison. However, it had many crippling flaws which only grew worse after Mihiragula's death in 723.

Firstly, urban growth was limited by the unique Eftal feudal system, which saw much arable land simply used as pasture. That land which was not used as such was often used for cash crops (wine and cotton among other commodities) by the local grandees - agricultural surplus remained at the low levels merely necessary to support slave plantations staffed by imported Slavic and East African labor. In the Gulf, most cities remained small trading ports built around previous harbors, designed to funnel goods east and west.

Secondly, the feudal system, while resilient against outside threats, was ineffective at building the power of the crown to such a degree as to support large-scale projects. The great vayan landholders and the monasteries of the north did not collect taxes for the crown - they paid tribute, and this tribute could often be merely token. Oversight was limited, as it was the vayans and their extended families who provided the military arm of the government, and the monasteries who provided the bureaucracy. No King could escape their grasp.

Thirdly, incoherent policy on the frontiers. While the vayans often were tractable, the greater padivayans often considered themselves kings in their own right. The padivayans of Nasibin and Mosil for example in 732 responded to a border incursion from Syrian Eftal raiders with violence despite promises from the crown that it would not be met with reprisal, weakening the integrity of their crown. The padivayans were then able to negotiate their punishment down to a mere slap on the wrist.

Mihiragula's death saw his cousin Vankavadh take power in what less charitable sources refer to as a palace coup engineered by local aristocrats. He proceeded to squander the limited resources of state on grand festivals and decadent parties. More charitable sources would see Vankavadh as someone attempting to right the course of the Oadhyan Empire before it was too late. His ostentatious displays of wealth were necessary to keep his vassals in line - carefully arranged generosity combined with veiled threats. His coup was to prevent a weaker candidate for the throne from gaining it at the behest of the greater lords. He would maintain the "International System" of the Late Eftal Era, keeping in regular diplomatic contact with his peers to the west and marrying a Khirichan princess.

However, he would meet a grisly death in 734 in battle against the Banu Tayy. Christian Arabs, fleeing the ever bolder raids of the Saihists, had overrun several of his southern lords. Calling his retainers together, and levying those lords who were nearby, he rode south. Attempting to relieve the siege of Zabai, he attacked the Tayy siege lines and was repulsed. Panicking, he ordered a retreat which turned into a rout. In the chaos he fell from his horse and was kicked in the head, never to rise. Leaving no heir and a wide selection of possible candidates, the Oadhyan lords raced towards the capital to have their say in the succession. Unlike in the Eftal Empire, where only the close retainers would be assumed to have a say (in such a situation where no clear candidate existed) for the Oadhyan lords, all of them were retainers of equal standing to the King's personal companions. Succession disputes meant riding to the capital in force.

The Council of Ahmatan, as their meeting became known, would last for two weeks. An early frontrunner, Mihiradata, was found to have a crippling stutter he had hid by virtue of infrequent appearances, all of which were heavily rehearsed. He lost the support of his followers and turned up dead in his bedroom the next day. Accusations flew but no culprit was determined. Sataspa the Vayan of Xhunan, growing weary of the lack of progress finally took action to end the madness. He arranged with a small cabal of his fellow lords to seize the palace and lock the lords in until a suitable candidate had been chosen. After a failed attempt by the Eftal lords to break out, they caved and chose Rasam Oadhya as their leader by a narrow plurality. Sataspa allowed the lords to leave, but the Vayan of Pelapata, angered by Sataspa's actions and smug satisfaction at having broken the deadlock gathered several of his brothers to his side and beat Sataspa with a cudgel. Rasam's command to stop the fighting was finally heeded, but the damage had been done - already the young Shah appeared weak and Sataspa would henceforth be known as "the Golden Toothed."

The rest of Rasam's reign would be no more impressive. Large sections of the Euphrates were lost to certain Tayy lords, who paid tribute and theoretically merely rented the land from the Shah, but in truth were its sole masters now. In the East, an ambitious Turko-Sogdian warlord named Aghatsagh was carving out a Khanate for himself, and many of the eastern vassals paid tribute to him just as they did to Ahmatan and the Oadhyan crown.

Central Asia - Rise of the "Turkic Sikander"

Little is known of Aghatsagh Shah or his origins. One of the many Persianized Turks who lived on the periphery of the Eftal world, he distinguished himself in the mold of similar successful warlords before him, by raiding his neighbors and simply being better at it than they were. Eventually, his victories turned to outright conquest, and he proved adept at that as well. In 721, at the age of twenty, he captured Harev [Herat] from the Kapisa Shahs, who had long regarded such cities as the absolute border of their dominions. Unlike so many conquerors before him, he was quick to turn from raiding to taxes. Charismatic and brave, he energized the polyglot warriors beneath him into a capable fighting force. Tribal affiliations mattered little so long as one could fight. With each success, his defeated enemies were incorporated into his ranks.

In 724, he defeated the Gorkhanid Eftal, once a tributary of the Oadhyans. Their Shah was made to ritually submit himself. Other scattered Eftal satraps in Sakastan were defeated by 726, again earning the wrath of the Kapisa Shahs, who finally saw the threat for what it was. However, the Kapisa had entered decline themselves, being but a shadow of the Johiyava. Unlike the great estates and large armies the Johiyava could call upon from within India, the Kapisa found themselves hamstrung by their dependence on the Ganarajyas (guild republics) of the Punjab for additional manpower. Furthermore, they had not endeared themselves to all the Kamboja, many of whom had preferred the patronage of their fellow tribesmen to the Eftal Siyaposha tribe. As such, the two great military reserves of the Kapisa Shahdom deserted them in their time of need. The guilds, for their part, rebelled after a council speech by the influential orator Dahrasena Soneta, whose writings became the foundational treatises upon which the Gandharan Republic would be based.

Faced with so many threats, Aghatsagh's triumph was almost to be expected. After two years of campaigning, many of the great mountain fortresses had fallen. Kapisa itself was sacked, and the seat of power in its region began to shift north towards Balkh once more, although the city of Kabul also became influential.

Unlike the Kapisa, Aghatsagh did not for the time being choose to press into India. Tales of the powerful Gandharans and their armies convinced him to bide his time. Furthermore, he had a large and roughly-held together Empire to manage. As a Shah over many different peoples, he found himself constantly having to shift roles to adapt. He could no longer be a mere tribal warlord - he had to be a Shah. He could no longer be a conqueror, he had to find capable administrators. He could no longer be a pagan, he had to pay at least lip service to the multitude of gods and creeds worshipped by his peoples. It helped that he was multilingual - speaking Eastern Eftal, Sogdian, Turkish, and Gandharan with equal fluency. Later in life he would become an avid reader as well.

Aghatsagh was deeply concerned with his legacy. He drew from the inspiration of conquerors he read about such as Heshana and Alexander the Great. The key, he decided, was to bind the conquered peoples together with blood. In this project he was only partially successful. He himself would marry the daughter of the former Kapisa Shah, Anakhitvandha. More successful was his policy of otherwise letting the disparate peoples of his empire more or less govern themselves. As long as taxes were paid there was little to fear. Like the Kapisa before him, the core of his military was primarily Turkic, but unlike the Kapisa this core was few enough in number that Aghatsagh could employ and assimilate plenty of other peoples into his army.

In 731, the Sogdian Shah, fearing the growing Empire to their south, declared war as well. Their defeat was swift, and the Shah found himself reduced to a mere tributary by 732. This tributary status would generally be the fate of the northern peoples he encountered - here Aghatsagh respected the general autonomy of the steppes. He did not try to govern them as directly - preferring a light hand and tribute in kind.

By the ascension of Rasam Oadhya to the Eftal throne, Aghatsagh ruled an empire greater than any of the petty Turkic warlords who had come before him. He commanded a truly impressive force, the crown jewel of which was fifty war elephants - a gift from the Gandharan republics. In time, perhaps he would turn those elephants back on the prince-assemblies of Gandhara. Or maybe he would march west and reunite the Eftal Empire. He had many options.
 
Looks like the Eftal are in for yet another round of invasion by the Turks, this time being Aghatsagh. With the Eftal largely degenerating to feudalism and the continued shrinking of urban settlements, I'm also assuming that we're not seeing the equivalent of the Islamic advances in science and mathematics. Is technology in general less advanced, at least in the mid east, compared to OTL?
 
I think its important to keep a distinction between the Persia/Mesopotamia/Armenia area and the broader middle east, in answer to your question. Though to be fair, the "Eftal Golden Age" was a time of scientific learning and prosperity. Sadly, the fruits of that learning are largely confined to Buddhist monasteries now.

Technology, learning, and whatnot are generally progressing ahead of schedule in India, China, Arabia, Somalia, and Egypt. Europe is on pace with OTL. The core of the Eftal world is suffering and Mesopotamia in particular will have a hell of an uphill battle to regain its former prominence, if it ever does.

Currently though, I'm torn about Aghatsagh. Should he go east, into India? Or West? It's an uphill battle, but higher reward. Attacking the Eftal world is easy pickings but much less rewarding. Also, Aghatsagh is probably the ugliest name I've found and "Eftalized" yet. The Eftal love their ⟨gh⟩ and ⟨kh⟩ sounds.
 
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If Aghatsagh is the sort of man who has ambitions of being a great conqueror, then he is going for India. It is certainly a much harder target, but they are extremely rich right now.

Besides, the poor Eftal could use a break:p.

If the decision between the two is that ambiguous, why not have Aghatsagh literally decide with a coin toss?:D

ITTL, it could be considered; 'the coin toss that determined the fate of the world'.
 

Deleted member 67076

India is likelier, I think. Its richer, and easier to manage from a power base in Afghanistan.
 
Lion of Herat
The Lion of Herat

Fresh from previous victories, Aghatsagh envisioned a grand conquest of India. Huge armies were rallied, and the provinces stripped to bare minimal garrisons. Every soldier would be necessary. However, this was also when the Oadhyans decided to attack. Rasam Oadhya, eager to secure his grip on the throne by vanquishing the Eastern threat, led his foremost retainers and some twenty thousand men towards Herat. Aghatsagh, cursing fate, led his army west instead.

Rasam was defeated swiftly. The Eftal Shah panicked at the unexpected size of the forces arrayed against them and the army as a whole attempted to fall back, but Aghatsagh shadowed him relentlessly. In a bold move, Aghatsagh left behind the bulk of his army and all of his foot, taking only the swift Turkic cavalry which had won his earliest victories. He harassed the Eftal columns, making them think that his forces were far greater, slowing them to a crawl. Finally, on an anonymous hilltop lost to history, Rasam made a final stand - his horses exhausted and his men thirsty, his troops circled their wagons and attempted to fortify the high ground. The Turks circled them, and the next day the main body of the Aghatsaghid army arrived, bringing fresh supplies and arrows. The Eftal were unable to use their own cavalry to its fullest extent, and their attempts to sally forth were met with disaster.

Finally, after two more days, the Turkic army attacked the defenses, and the exhausted Eftal army surrendered. The nobility was ransomed for enormous sums, and the common soldiers were sold into slavery. The Shah himself was treated with respect and dignity, as an honored guest not a prisoner, but when he attempted to escape along with a group of his companions he was beaten and lashed to a pole for three days without food or water until he begged for mercy. Aghatsagh's army, having many noble captives, found only limited strong defenses. Unlike the fortresses of Europe, many of which were becoming impressive indeed, the typical Eftal palace-fort was designed to defend against mere raiders. Few posed serious obstacles to Aghatsagh, and by mid-autumn he arrived at Ahmatan, which opened its gates to him.

The Shah, weakened by the various ordeals he had been subjected to, was made to sign a humiliating peace. He was effectively a vassal of Aghatsagh, and several of his own greatest vassals were directly made tributaries to his conqueror - a man who many called "the Lion of Herat" after his latest victories. The Shah would remain in Persia for another two years (until 735), touring the countryside. The "Turkic Indenture" as Rasam's humiliation became known, would become infamous throughout the Eftal world.

However, Aghatsagh was nowhere near done. Now, his victory finally ensured, he turned to the nascent Gandharan republic. The army which descended from his mountain fortresses on Purusapura won every battle with almost contemptuous ease - hardened by years of fighting and commanded by a tactical genius and a master of deception, the guild-soldiers found themselves simply outmatched. However, they were also numerous and the Gandharans, motivated by Dahrasena Soneta, refused to even consider surrender unless Aghatsagh recognized their councils and guilds. Impressed by the stubbornness of the Gandharans, and often merciful in victory, Aghatsagh agreed. He even spared the great universities and cities of the region even a token sack.

However, this even-handedness aggravated his soldiers, who had been promised plunder. Magnanimous victory was all well and good for the Shah's interests, they argued, but for the common warrior travelling many miles from home, material reward was necessary. As such, they pressured Aghatsagh into sailing down the Indus into the country of the Rai dynasty. Ruled by King Rai Sahasi, the Rai had successfully resisted the Siyaposha with the help of the Gurjars, but recently this alliance had been strained. Isolated, they put up a valiant fight but were destroyed in battle at Sanahpur. The Rai dynasty was wiped out to a man and their cities pillaged. Aghatsagh carved grants of land out of the river valley, and divided the cities into small provinces, which he granted to those who had performed well in the campaign.

In 737, Aghatsagh struck south against the "land of the five rivers" but here he was met with mounting frustration. The Ganarajya of Sakala resisted far longer than he expected, and brought allies - the small guild-republics of Madra and Trigarta sent reinforcements. While he ultimately won, and brought much of the Punjab under his control, it was at great cost. He deemed striking any further inland impossible, and finally turned back. The far-famed Lion of Herat remained undefeated, and it was perhaps only Aghatsagh who truly knew how close he came to defeat.

Another reason for choosing to turn back after 737 was that the Syrians were proving an increasingly dangerous threat in the west. After seeing the Oadhyan's defeat, Shah Avyaman Kithara began launching attacks further and further into Mesopotamia, turning several border lords openly against Rasam and thus by extension Aghatsagh. Leading his forces west to counter this new threat, signs of age and stress began to show. The Lion of Herat was still only middle-aged, but the stress of campaign and his wounds had taken their toll on him. He still inspired great devotion in his polyglot soldiers, but it was in the evolving corps of officers who he placed most of his trust in this campaign.

The Aghatsaghid army fought the Syrians to a draw, and finally Avyaman agreed to an exchange of hostages and peace. The critical fortress cities of Nasibin and Dariy were handed over to the Syrians, and peace was concluded in the west. The Shah of Syria married his son, Hvarmei to one of Aghatsagh's many daughters, Culpan, and the two men entered into an uneasy but practical alliance. Not long after, Aghatsagh returned to Herat. He named his son, Korshad Lasgara, co-Shah in the Eftal tradition, and settled down to rule.

However, within two years he became restless. Tales had reached him of the weakness of the Qi dynasty, and he began to plan a massive overland invasion of China, involving some hundred thousand men, perhaps a third of them mounted, and over a thousand war elephants. Ignoring the logistical difficulties of such an endeavor, especially for a military establishment which had lost much of the lightness and mobility which had made its earliest victories possible, the plan was short on details as to how such an army would propose to take Chang'an or press into the vast heartland of a vaster empire. Perhaps fortunately for his legacy, Aghatsagh would die before he could undertake such a venture, in 740.

The Terror of Europe (in brief)

The twenty years before the Great Raids seemed to bode well for the future of Christian Europe. Cities were growing and wealth was on the rise, especially in Italy. The Berbers to the south were relatively quiet. Trade, although nowhere near what it had once been, now flowed once more into North Africa. The first tentative tales of golden kingdoms across great seas of sand were seeping north. For once, the trend seemed to be in favor of unification as well, rather than fragmentation.

In Florentia, Emperor Valerian would pass away in 736, succeeded by his son Isidorius Petrus Constantius. Isidorius was by all accounts a humble and devout man, raised at the periphery of the Imperial court out of his mother's fear of the influence of the military men who controlled Isidorian affairs to so great a degree. Upon his ascension, Isidorius found that his lack of military expertise ensured he would simply not be respected by the professional military bureaucracy whose control over the state was absolute.

Rather, one man was perhaps the undisputed master of ever-shrinking Christian Europe. The Magister Militium, Cosmas, had successfully expanded Roman power across the Mediterranean and into the Balkans. Unlike his predecessors, who had been conservative, or the Pope who still looked East, Cosmas believed he could restore a Western Empire. The Frankish kingdoms were deadlocked - apart from brief and bloody feuds they were inward looking. The Hispanians were still reeling from their humiliation at the hands of the Berbers. Furthermore, the Hispanian monarch, Suinthila had proved incapable of siring a male child. His nobles were restless, and Cosmas saw nothing but opportunity.

The Roman attempt to conquer Hispania was born out of a comedy of errors. Cosmas' attempt to subtly suggest a union between the two crowns was taken entirely the wrong way. His attempts to interfere in the growing succession crisis were seen as belligerent, and Suinthila, tiring of Roman interference declared war, and marched from Narbo into Provence. Having spent his youth fighting for his crown, Suinthila was no stranger to pitched battles. While Cosmas struck a hasty alliance with the Aquitainian King, nearly doubling the forces available to him, Suinthila easily outmaneuvered Cosmas and defeated him in 737, leading to the Magister's death. The Emperor was quick to make peace, but the Empire was humiliated. Their opportunities squandered, they could only look with terror as Suinthila turned his attentions north, defeating the Frankish King of Aquitaine and restoring his dynasty's control of southern Gaul.

Meanwhile, the Franks, frightened by this new display of power from Hispania, began to rally around the King of Austrasia, Clovis, who as a young man had quickly defeated his brothers and expanded his dominion into the territory of the Saxons. They could not see that the Visigothic dominion was a paper tiger, strong only because of the various weaknesses of their enemies, and doomed to crumble once more the moment Suithila died. Unfortunately for the Franks however, Suithila would not be quick to die. He would finally die in 745, with rumors of poisoning abounding, and in the broader context of history he could not have picked a worse time to die. His sons-in-law divided the sprawling territory between themselves, and one by one they would be conquered by the Franks to their north.

745, was the year that the Khirichan realized the wealth of Europe. Compared to the Slavic tribes to their north, Europe was ripe for looting. It would not be long after that Kuluj Ishbara Shiqarogul, third son of the Khirichanid Khagan, would launch the first raid on Europe. Striking hard into the Balkans with a small force, he would carry back vast quantities of treasure from raids on rural estates. This in turn would only encourage more raiders and greater targets. Travelling light, his raiders were able to avoid concentrated field armies and local fortifications and wreak untold havoc. When his foes did manage to bring him to battle, they invariably lost. Isidorius was defeated in 749, and Northern Italy was opened to the Khirichan. From there, Spain and Southern France became targets as well.

Later raids between 753-759 would target primarily northern Europe, circling through Barvaria into Gaul, but in 763 a major raid, organized independently by a group of Xasar-Sahu warlords, managed to sack Meilanum (Milan) itself after a small party gained access to a sally port during the night. Each successful raid spawned imitators, and the few major defeats were counteracted by an abundance of victories. These raids would in turn allow the Khirichan and Xasar to truly establish themselves in the Carpathian basin. Utilizing their homeland as a base for raids, all of Europe was open to attack. Reprisals from Rome were limited - Isidorius concentrated on fortifying key entrances into Italy - which had some success, but did little to impress the military, which demanded answers. Finally, in traditional Roman fashion, Isidorius would be overthrown by his Magister Militium, Severus, in 768. His small family would be executed or forced into exile as well. The Isidorian dynasty came to an end, but the Roman Empire would not.

That same year, the Romans lost their Balkan territories and clients once and for all. Kuluj Ishbara turned from raiding to outright conquest, taking Illyria by storm and then proceeding south into Sklavenia. His raiders, hardened by their many victories, defeated Grand Prince Samuel and wrested Moesia and much of Epirus away from the Sklavenians.

The Great Raids had left Europe in a state of panic. For a generation their defenses had been shown to be vastly inadequate. Pagan brigands had ravaged deep into the heartland of western Christendom unopposed. Now, Kuluj Ishbara had carved out yet another heathen kingdom in Christian lands. It was unacceptable. Rumors that Kuluj, the Xasars under Shah Nanaivanta, and the Rhom Shah had formed a triumvirate alliance to conquer Rome itself spread like wildfire. The Sklaveni begged the Pope for aid. The Franks unified with remarkable speed, given their early factitiousness. Clovis accomplished what his predecessors had barely dreamed of - a unified Francian "Empire." In the wake of so many raids and upheavals, he promised to be a Defender of the Faith. One apocryphal story relates him traveling to Rome and swearing a sacred vow to restore the Holy Places and the Church entirely.

The stage was set for the Great Votive War.

[Stay tuned. Next post will cover in detail the rise of Clovis the Great (same time frame as this post) and his alliance with Emperor Severus. From there I plan to take a lot of time to focus on the buildup to the Votive War, the war itself, and aftermath.

Europe in this time period is not my strong suit. I welcome questions and comments. Kuluj Ishbara's raids are based on the Hungarian raids of OTL.]
 
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