The Goose Stepping Redcoats - The History of the House of Brandenburg in Britain
- Thread starter Georg von Frundsberg
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Possibly Tuscany. The Medici were running out of heirs and money around this time. The Duke of Lorraine could be shoved into the line of succession after Gian Gastone, younger brother of Ferdinando.
House of Medici - Wikipedia
Alternatively, IIRC one plan to divide the Spanish Empire was to give the Duke of Lorraine the Duchy of Milan (and possibly Mantua as well).
I quite agree with what you said, except for two small details, France would certainly like to keep Lorraine in its possession even after the peace is signed by all those present, Austria would sign to annex a good part of Bavaria ( but I doubt that would like Sicily, it is too far from its core and difficult to protect without constantly depending on the maritime powers, rather in Vienna they would push harder to obtain Milan ) regarding the part about the war of the Prussian succession ( mine was just a joking idea, nothing serious, I was just speculating on how future historians of this TL would have called a hypothetical conflict over the inheritance that Frederick II will obtain ) as far as the Lorraine dynasty is concerned it can actually be compensated with Tuscany ( 1 ) or with the Netherlands in exchange for accepting that their duchy definitively passes under French control, for the rest I await the next developments with trepidation
1 ) even if it cannot be ruled out that the Stuart also try to get involved to obtain it, given that Elisabetta Farnese had important claims on the grand duchy in Otl, but I doubt they will be successful ( because even the Pope would oppose this ) , therefore they will concentrate elsewhere, perhaps to try to inherit Massa and Carrara ( which have a good port on the Mediterranean, which would be very convenient for Emilia )
This is not unreasonable since his mother in OTL already cast a deep influence over his youth. Since she was the Queen Regnant in Great Britain and he would be spending years with her in London, he may be more radical than OTL (in FW's eyes).
But since the PoD predates Frederick's birth, he won't be attached to his "close friends".
So I guess this is how the Italian Question would settled:
1. Duke of Lorraine guaranteed succession to Tuscany
2. A Farnese-Stuart shotgun marriage (enforced by the powers), with the guarantee to succeed Parma
3. Austria received Milan, Naples, Sicily
4. Savoy received Sardinia and became a Kingdom
Besides, Austria agreed to let go of Lorraine in exchange for annexing Ober-pfalz and everything north of the Danube (including Ingolstadt), as well as Passau.
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I have thought about the Farnese match again and encountered a problem. It is indeed an interesting idea that I will most likely incorporate into my timeline. But Henry St John et al, the Tories who were governing the country and leading the peace negotiations were to a certain degree sympathisers to the Stuarts. In OTL, they had never asked James to renounce his claim so what would drive them to think differently in this scenario, especially since the case for the Protestant Succession would be even weaker? I know that the Tory government had largely obeyed the Act of Settlement but telling James literally "You're out!" is a step too far that did not even happen in OTL.
How about this? The Farnese match was not an offer made directly to James but a concession to placate Louis XIV and convince him to accept the Protestant Succession.
I am also thinking of something unthinkable here. I am reading Basil Williams' account of the immediate reactions of the Tories after learning about Queen Anne's death. Could the perceived weakness of the Hanoverians convince the Jacobites to attempt a coup before George I could have arrived? Of course, the Protestant Succession was too popular at this point and for the sake of this timeline, rebels would have been defeated. But how much of a havoc can they wreck?
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If you rejigger the coronation riots you could certainly have them jump the gun
This ironically would have weakened the Jacobite cause in the long term. Referencing Basil Williams, had they revolted immediately after Anne's death, they would reveal how feeble they actually were as they even failed when the political condition was more favourable to them.
Either way, the Tories were getting purged from government like in OTL.
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I'm glad that the idea of a Stuart state in Italy convinces you, actually yes JFES may never abdicate its claims on the English throne, but like Otl if he tried to make an attempt and if it proved more than unsuccessful I would hardly see him trying again in a short time, and yes technically it would be an agreement made with Louis XIV and the other European powers in a post-WoSS peace treaty ( especially if we consider that the revolts of 1708 and 1714/5 were actually those with the greatest chance of success ever in Otl ), forbids one of his sons in the future from trying to take back the throne he believes his family has unjustly lost, only to find himself up against an ATL Culloden
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So in this scenario, the War of the Spanish Succession ends a year or two earlier than OTL. I am trying to plan out how different the Great Northern War will be. The most obvious difference is that Hanover and Prussia, free from their obligations to the Emperor, would join the war earlier. However, let's say the war ended in 1712/13, this meant that Louis XIV would have 2 more years to live, assuming he still died like in OTL. Would he intervene to help Sweden out by sending a fleet to the Baltic or mediate in favour of Sweden?
This reminds me of a chapter from Penfield Roberts' book. He wrote a line saying that Georg Heinrich von Görtz, the Swedish diplomat, had tried to revive the old alliance with France but was rejected by the new French leadership succeeding Louis XIV. So if Louis XIV is still (barely) around, would Charles XII get a better deal?
This reminds me of a chapter from Penfield Roberts' book. He wrote a line saying that Georg Heinrich von Görtz, the Swedish diplomat, had tried to revive the old alliance with France but was rejected by the new French leadership succeeding Louis XIV. So if Louis XIV is still (barely) around, would Charles XII get a better deal?
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doing a little research I would say that the sun king would try to mediate in favor of Sweden or at most assist it with military supplies, because I doubt that France would want to get involved in another conflict after having just left the WoSS, especially if there is a risk to once again trigger more than tense relations with Great Britain or the Emperor ( given that the former would not be in favor of a total Swedish hegemony in the Baltic, while the latter will formally side with Hanover and Brandenburg, also because they seem slightly less worrying / militarily capable of Sweden ( 1 ), so I agree that Louis will try to find an agreement, if not quite like during the Treaties of Nijmegen, at least something that does not completely strip Sweden of its holdings in the HRE, furthermore, considering his incredible resistance in terms of health, it cannot be excluded that the Sun King could live a few years longer than Otl ( perhaps we will make him reach the round figure of 80 years, then in 1718 ? ) because the gangrene resulting from his cheek can be slowed down if wasn't so stressed by the constant wars, the death of most of his family from smallpox, the unlikely medical treatments he was given since he was a child ( it's amazing he didn't die during one of those terrifying treatments ) his inactivity also depended on the difficulty he had in recovering from the continuous treatments based on purges and bloodletting
1) Bremen alone allowed Sweden to pay the majority of the two revenues and to support an army of at least 15 thousand men, without forgetting his other German possessions, which allowed him a very important influence in the region
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Up until 1714 Sweden was friendly with Britain and the Netherlands and less so with France, but I could see Louis XIV trying to get Sweden back on-side with military support.
If France were to mediate, perhaps Sweden could end its war with Denmark, Hanover, Prussia and Saxony early and focus on the fight with Russia. Yet Karl XII would have to make a lot of concessions as if he had lost (Sweden could retain Stratlsund, Rugen and Wismar as in OTL). I think it may be out of his personality to accept it.
Suppose he does, could he beat Russia and achieve a more favourable peace? Despite the victory at Gangut, the Russians had not established control over the Baltic so it was possible for Karl XII to land an army in Finland.
I really don't see him making any concessions. He didn't OTL, even when it was honestly his only option to stay in power, which ended up costing him everything. He's the "my way or the highway" type, and once the tide of war turned against him, he refused any offer of peace until it was the highway for him.
I would hardly see Charles XII compromising with his opponents, furthermore Otl was quite stubborn in seeking a total victory against Russia, which as it turned out was a suicidal idea, given the immense disparity in resources between the two states, in favor of the Russians ( especially regarding the availability of men ) so I don't see the fate of the conflict changing much, in the end it was more a question of when Sweden would collapse than anything else, also because until 1708 Peter was available to be able to negotiate ( provided it could maintain a useful port on the Baltic ) but Charles and his court were extremely against it and sought a landslide victory to reaffirm themselves as the hegemonic power of the region
So after a lot of research (really a lot), I have planned out the next three chapters which will summarise the 1710s. All I need to do now is to write everything down.
Regarding the Philp V (Spoiler beware!) of Spain, I still plan to have Maria of Savoy die in 1714. Since Farnese was married to James Stuart, he most likely will marry Benedetta of Modena. How will this affect his Italian ambition? Even though we remove Farnese from the picture, Philip would still be interested in recovering Spain's territory in Italy. The proposed match between Maria Theresa and an alt-Don Carlos would not have happened of course. Instead, we are more likely to see a Spanish-Savoard/Parma (if James Stuart has a daughter)/Modena match to create an alliance web to counter the Austrian presence. Can he try to exploit the Tuscany succession issue in the medium-term though?
Regarding the Philp V (Spoiler beware!) of Spain, I still plan to have Maria of Savoy die in 1714. Since Farnese was married to James Stuart, he most likely will marry Benedetta of Modena. How will this affect his Italian ambition? Even though we remove Farnese from the picture, Philip would still be interested in recovering Spain's territory in Italy. The proposed match between Maria Theresa and an alt-Don Carlos would not have happened of course. Instead, we are more likely to see a Spanish-Savoard/Parma (if James Stuart has a daughter)/Modena match to create an alliance web to counter the Austrian presence. Can he try to exploit the Tuscany succession issue in the medium-term though?
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difficult, certainly an Estense wife for a king of Spain, even if she is a second wife, she is a little low in importance ( but still quite more respectable ) well the only thing that Philip can actually try to recover and maintain successfully is Naples!, given that it is too far from the Habsburg nucleus, defended only by a fairly small garrison of the RN and still very tied to Spain ( furthermore, its capture would not cause too many problems from a diplomatic point of view, as long as it is content to retake only that ) Tuscany is Off - Limits, because neither the Pope nor Vienna and even Paris would be extremely against it ( just see in Otl, where France did not agree at all with the idea of Don Carlos holding Florence and Naples at the same time ) , better to let it end up in the hands of the Lorraines or the Wittelsbach family ( as compensation for the losses suffered ), I don't think we will see the Savoys be so quickly anti-Vienna, especially if they have alongside them a France which has been reinforced again by the newly admitted territories and which understandably appears even more threatening to them, I believe that the Savoyards will continue with the policy of remaining cautiously neutral and seeing who offers the most, but always keeping a very watchful eye on Paris' moves
If not an Estense, then who else can Philip V get as a bride? Louis the Regent of France had feuded with him so he won't approve a French-Bourbon wife. An Austrian match is out of the question without Farnese. I think the most probable choice is Francisca Josefa, the youngest daughter of Portuguese King Peter II; but will she be a few years too young?
How about Elisabeth Auguste Sofie of Neuburg?
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actually there aren't many suitable brides for Philip, when I said that Benedetta wasn't doing so well, it was because of the many problems that could arise from this, both because she is a direct cousin of George I of Hanover, who obviously he would oppose the match ( as head of the family of the Guelph dynasty, of which the Este are the minor branch ) furthermore the Stuarts could see it as a potential offense or threat ( depending on the case, but considering that JFES tried to marry her in Otl ) I don't think there would be too many problems, but actually if the alternative is a little Portuguese princess or one from Germany ( although well connected, it could work ) well in Madrid they would start to do some calculations
Since the War of the Spanish Succession ended 2-3 years earlier as Britain baulked out early, the Ottoman-Venetian War is likely delayed as the Turks cannot take advantage of a distracted Austria. The Ottomans probably will attack Morea instead during the War of the Quadruple Alliance. So the order of events is reversed as Autrian would intervene in the Balkans only after the war in Italy is over. In OTL, Austria made peace after seizing Belgrade since the Spanish invasion of Sicily shifted the Emperor's attention. Here Austria may continue the war and go south, after all, they did reach Macedonia during the Great Northern War. This means perhaps a greater Austrian gain than OTL Passarowitz. In addition to OTL gains, I forsee Austria also getting Bosnia (the region, but the Turks will retain Herzegovina), and turning Moldovia into an Austrian client state rather than an Ottoman fief (The Phanariot rule would be replaced with a local leader or a Hungarian nobleman).
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