For the Nation, For the People: 1848 and Beyond

knin

Bumped update to top of new page. Comments?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mid 1849, in Germany, cont. (part 4)

In spite of their early successes, the Baden-Palatinate rebellion is clearly overstretched by late summer. Central command is inherently lacking, and even if the revolutionaries do not lack in disgruntled former Prussian army officers to lead their eager (yet still very green) soldiers, the entire military structure wants for discipline. Von Struve and Reichard are not military men and appoint poor leaders to head their operations, leaving many volunteer detachments acting virtually autonomously. At first, this had worked well as it enabled revolutionary influence and support to spread quite rapidly. But this would soon change.

An attack on Ludwigsburg, the temporary home of Württemberg's King William I since fleeing Stuttgart just to the south, brings the city under republican control and sees the king flee into Bavaria, where he requests the intervention of his powerful neighbor. The gathering of Bavarian troops is met with mild unrest as before in Franconia, where support for the republicans is much stronger, but the majority of Bavarian troops originate in the heartland, which is staunchly pro-monarchist. The first target for Bavarian forces is Ulm, just across the border in Württemberg, but not considered to be a city under revolutionary control. After establishing a presence there, the march to Stuttgart is relatively easy up until Esslingen, a town which lies quite near to Stuttgart. Even there, the skirmish between Bavarian troops and revolutionary volunteers demonstrates the dearth of experience the citizen-army has against an organized and truly professional force, and results in an almost immediate rebel retreat.

At the same time, the Prussian army finally begins to roll back revolutionary control in the Rhine Province, especially after the arsenal at Prüm is retaken. From there, troops march on Trier and other cities in the far south, though those cities prove much harder for government soldiers to crack. Another Prussian-led force, supplemented by Hessian forces, move south from Frankfurt into Starkenburg and Rhenish Hesse. Within a few weeks almost all revolutionary-held cities in the Grand Duchy are under Prussian and Hessian occupation.

Also in this time, with Russia doing the brunt of the work in Hungary and Italy in a stalemate, Austrian Emperor Franz Joseph had been contemplating Austria's role in the German states since the withdrawal of his delegation from Frankfurt and the explosion of rebellions such as the one in Baden across southern Germany. Meetings between Prussian and Austrian officials are cordial and productive for the most part; neither side wishes to see a revolutionary, republican Germany, and both are acutely aware of the possibility of their own influence as the preeminent German-speaking states waning away.

After the promulgation of the new Prussian constitution, Austrian ministers had been happy to pass along its provisions to the chief architects Schwarzenberg, Stadion, and Bach, who incorporate some its features into their new Austrian constitution proclaimed in mid-summer. This document implements very few of the changes demanded by the Kremsier Congress, and fails to address the issues of federalism and nationalism in the greater empire. In the Austrian crownlands, however, where the aristocracy remains strong and support for the emperor remains quite high, the constitution is quite well-received.

Even with shared ideologies, the two powers are also inherently rivals as well; Prussia's growing proportion of northern German territory makes it the most powerful power broker north of the Main, while Austria and Bavaria in the south share ardent Catholicism. Austria, then, is carefully monitoring how Prussian involvement in the southwest unfolds, as states affected are mostly considered with the Bavarian realm of interest. The two exceptions to this sphere are the two minor Hohenzollern principalities, whose princes' close familial ties to King Frederick William IV make them of direct concern to Prussian foreign policy.

Bavaria, and by extension Austria, want to ensure that Prussian intervention will not translate into permanent expanded influence. Even before Bavarian and Prussian troops race to begin occupying republican cities, negotiators are drawing up the new lines of influence in the southwest, to avoid future uprisings and a tense standoff between regional powers. Though no one is willing to agree solidly until the situation on the ground is resolved, it is generally agreed that Bavaria will retain control and influence in the Palatinate, Prussia will of course be concerned with the Hohenzollern principalities but also the Starkenburg territories of the Grand Duchy of Hesse, while Austria would likely assist in occupying and maintaining order in Württemberg until the King is safely restored. Baden is likely to see the influence of all three, as each power desires to have a say in the future of that Grand Duchy.

Prussia takes the initiative on grabbing control as Prussian and Hessian troops makes for Mannheim, the de facto seat of the Badner government, in August.
 

knin

Author's Note: So I seem to have lost a little bit of steam for writing this TL, but I definitely don't want to stop writing. I have more ideas for what lies ahead, so here's what I'm going to try to do. This will be the last update of ACT I, so to speak, the events of 1848-49. I know the story lines aren't all neatly tied up and resolved, but as I develop the next section, which will jump ahead a couple of years, hopefully all the gaps will be filled in and things will be made clear. If not, I can go back and add what needs to be added for continuity's sake. But for now, I'd like to try and move along with the story, and I hope the readers will understand. Without further ado, the end of ACT I, a small recap of what we've seen so far, and a look at what's to come.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Late 1849

As the summer of 1849 fades, the conservative European monarchs finally seem to be gaining the upper hand on the radical and nationalist forces that have plunged the continent into chaos for almost two years. But even in their triumph, the powers face a great many challenges ahead of them, as the uprisings have revealed the changing nature of European societies, the growing threat to the existing order, and the deep divisions between the powers themselves.

Austria, Russia, and Prussia, once united in the Holy Alliance, are increasingly divided by their overlapping visions and interests. Austria, caught between the two, appears at the greatest risk of being disadvantaged due to the likelihood of encirclement, but Russia still fears Prussian ambition in Germany nearly as much as it does Austrian influence in the Balkans. Austria also faces an intense divide with France over Italian interests, now that Austrian victories in the north have given way to a stalemate over Papal power in the south.

The Ottoman Empire grows weaker as the patchwork of Balkan ethnic identities begin to coalesce into truly nationalistic movements, resulting in open rebellion from Bosnia to Moldavia. Though Russia has ostensibly restored the Danubian provinces to Ottoman control, joint administration is merely an excuse for the continued presence of Russian troops, and no power seems to want to take an initiative with regards to Serbian expansionism, for fear of the others' reactions.

The wildcard player among the great powers is Britain, where the message of foreign policy is clearly conflicting. Foreign Secretary Lord Palmerston has been a vocal supporter of revolutions from Belgium to Bucharest, while the Queen and Parliament grow increasingly tired of Palmerston's exceptionally independent behavior. British mediation did successfully bring an end to the Schleswig dispute, at least temporarily by acknowledging the status quo, though some would argue it was Russian threats, not British diplomacy, that solved the crisis.

Unresolved questions abound: who should have political power in Rome, the republicans or the Pope; the rights (or lack thereof) of non-German populations in the Austrian monarchy; the pacification of the German republicans and the future of centralized German institutions like the Confederation. Besides the major powers, equally interesting medium powers like Denmark, Bavaria, and Piedmont-Sardinia must all find ways to move on from their own upheavals in 1848-9, and to fall into line with the great power they feel will best protect or represent their interests. Perhaps the happiest place on the European continent is Switzerland, where the republican experiment had indeed succeeded in the creation of a truly federal state.

As armies march across the continent, politicians and strategists are already plotting their next moves and the campaigns that will bring victory to their nations. It has been scarcely over three decades since the end of the Napoleonic Wars, but already the grim shadows of a great conflict are slowly beginning to loom once more. The republican experiment will soon be at an end - but who will emerge from the next upheaval that is to follow?

--------------------------------------END OF ACT I------------------------------------------

Thanks to everyone who has commented and asked questions thus far; hope you will all stick around for much more ahead. As I said at the top, I have more ideas about where to go for the future, but I'd love to hear from you all as well. Comment and speculate below!
 

knin

Caoster said:
I was with you until this. This is the same Austria that lost all her field armies, who got its ass handed to it multiple times by Hungarian forces, that had to supplicate itself to Russia to restore even part of its authority over Hungary. This Austria is back in the driver seat? Exactly what army did they send into Hesse? This is just not believable.
Click to expand...

Your point is well taken; that last paragraph was perhaps overly optimistic in regards to Austria's position.

However, I would point out that Austria did not lose all of her field armies, as the war effort in Italy went equally as strong for Austria as it did iOTL. In Hungary you are certainly correct, they performed quite deplorably. And even though the prominent role of Russia in Hungarian pacification is well known, I would argue that the German princes aren't necessarily deterred away from supporting Austria by events in Hungary. If you'll remember, Prussian troops had a rather difficult time getting things under control in the Rhine Province, so militarily speaking, neither power came out of 1849 looking pristine.

These minor states are more concerned with what direction Austria or Prussia would take the Confederation, and to the rulers, the Austrian 'loose' policy is more attractive. It didn't really matter what kind of army Austrian sent into Hesse, because with the explicit support of two kings and the tacit assent of two more plus a lot of the princes, Prussia would have to act virtually alone, and risk alienating her neighbors even more than Austrian diplomacy already has.

I think the takeaway is that Prussia has to take a back seat for the next few years, but of course big changes are coming soon so they won't be down and out for long.
 

knin

Again, I understand the points you are making. I wasn't really thinking about the origin of the army that would be sent into Hesse when I wrote that, I'm afraid I wouldn't make it very far as a military commander. As I said, I think my tone was perhaps overly optimistic and I'm open to amending the previous update for the sake of plausibility. What would you suggest in order for things to be more believable?
 

knin

I've pulled down the last update and I'll be rewriting it shortly, taking into account what you've said. Thank you for your constructive criticism on this matter, Caoster. If anyone else has any additional input while I'm working on the rewrite, I'd love to hear it.
 

knin

Author's Note: Okay, so with further consideration and taking into account what Caoster said, I've rewritten the previous update. Reading more information, I've determined that I'd like to guide the story somewhere in between what Caoster suggested and what I had written previously, which was more or less akin to OTL. In the immediate sense, that means that the Hesse Crisis is more significant TTL. I know how I want it to be resolved, but I don't know how to get there. I'll put that bit in another note at the bottom, so please weigh in with your opinion!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1850, in Germany (part 1)

As Austria struggles to return herself back to the status of a preeminent power after the humiliations of 1848, Schwarzenberg begins to pursue a policy refocused on Austria’s southern German allies, hoping to finance Austria’s revival at Prussia’s expense. Both sides gather allies among the smaller kingdoms and other minor states, though there is a clear division between the southern zone, where Austrian influence predominates, and the states north of the Rhine, where Prussian power is quite potent. This phenomenon comes to a head with the so-called 'Alliance of the Three Kings', a loose association of the northern kingdoms of Prussia, Saxony, and Hannover. The union is a tenuous one, as neither the Saxon nor the Hannoverian king enters such an agreement without strong reservations, but suspects closer alliance with Prussia on equal terms will save them from aggression. Nevertheless, Austria still fears that Prussia is drumming up support for a newly redrawn German Confederation which it can dominate and from which Austria would be excluded, by no means an unfounded fear.

Despite the seeming finality of the conservative victory in the events of 1848-9, princes and kings find themselves surprised at the level of popular resistance to the restoration of the old ways and conservative ministers, as the memories of the revolution seem to galvanize dissent rather than discourage it. The consolidation of power is particularly troublesome in Saxony and the Electorate of Hesse, where popular protest and unruly liberals result in the dissolution of parliamentary bodies and the suspension of freedoms. In Saxony, the situation is less dire and the army for the most part sides with their king, though Prussia nevertheless insists on sending troops as part of its duties as a faithful ally to assist in restoring control.

The same cannot be said for Hesse-Kassel, where the callousness of appointed head minister Hans Ludwig Hassenpflug manages to offend nearly all segments of the population. As the government collapses, most of the army resigns to side with the people, forcing Elector Frederick William and his ministers to abandon the capital. As yet unaligned in the Austria-Prussia divide, the Elector opts to elicit support from the nebulous authority of the German Confederation, which has been defunct since the collapse of the Frankfurt parliament, in hopes of avoiding a confrontation with the two powers. Instead his blunder brings tensions to a boiling point, as both sides resolve to send troops before the other. Technically, Austria has the power to intervene as the last recognized presiding nation of the Frankfurt Assembly, but Prussia does not recognize Austrian authority on this matter since the Confederation has had no power in over a year.

Britain scrambles to bring the two sides to the table and avoid outright war, echoing their efforts the year before on resolving the Schleswig-Holstein issue. This time, however, Russian threats will not affect the talks one way or the other, as Russia has no dog in this fight. The tsar would be quite content to see the two German powers battle it out, distracting them both from their peripheral territories and giving Russia a chance to shape affairs in Poland and the Balkans. Negotiators are called to London to resolve the situation peacefully. In due course, the Prussians demand both powers be allowed the right to intervene on behalf of any Confederation state prince until a commission can be formed to re-establish the powers and responsibilities of a German federal authority. Meanwhile, Austria maintains it still has the power to enforce the law on behalf of any and all Confederation states, as the radical corruption of the Frankfurt Parliament reverted all power back to its last legitimate representatives and leaders.

While in London the two sides entrench themselves diplomatically, Austrian diplomats fan out across the minor German states, doing everything they can to convince kings and princes to disengage from Prussia. The crux of their argument is that Austria will be able to reinstate and lead the Confederation as it was before the revolutions, a loose association of states with common interests but without an overbearing and direct central authority. They argue Austria is in the unique position to do this because she is now once more powerful enough to ensure the protection of these states, but engaged enough with its other, non-German lands to by and large leave the princes to their own rule. Prussia they cast as a belligerent and aggressive political manipulator, desperately seeking to annex and subvert her neighbors in a power play to take over northern Germany.

The situation is made even more complex by the demands of the angry protestors themselves. Fed up with their ineffectual government and its policies, the people advocate closer ties with Prussia, seen as a powerful neighbor with a more benevolent king. But even amongst the Hessians there is dispute over whom to support; the petty bourgeoisie and conservatives favor Prussian intervention, while the radicals and even some more moderate liberals simply seek to overthrow the Elector and install a new government, fearing Prussian annexation. The radicals are outnumbered and weakened politically by the developments of the previous year, and so it is the conservatives who defy the now-reduced power of the Elector’s government in exile to formally and expressly request Prussian intervention. Confident they hold the upper hand in both negotiations and amongst the Hessians, Prussia marches troops into the Electorate’s territory, causing negotiations to break down almost immediately once word reaches London.

From there, political developments on the ground deteriorate quickly. With Prussian troops flooding into the Electorate, the neighboring Grand Duke of Hesse, whose territory had been compromised by radicals in 1848 and now faces partial encirclement by Prussia due to its division, appeals directly to his wife’s brother, the King of Bavaria, for potential military assistance, fearing Prussia will not stop until it controls both Hessian states. The Grand Duke is married but childless, and is concerned he will be shoved from power should Prussian troops continue into his own country. His counterpart the Elector, unpopular and exiled, seems almost certain to lose his power.

The two Hessian provinces are of paramount strategic importance: for Prussia, previous agreements with the Elector provided access to roads that maintained links between Prussian provinces proper and the Rhineland. The Bavarian Palatinate is separate from Bavaria proper by the Hessian states as well, and King Maximillian does not want to rely on Prussian troops for that provinces defense as he had to 1849. One of the greatest concerns to both sides is that the center of unrest in Electoral Hesse is in the town of Hanau, which is in the strip of land that separates the two main provinces of the Grand Duchy and also right on its border, not to mention its close proximity to the Free City of Frankfurt. Bavarian troops are routed through the town of Aschaffenburg into Starkenburg in response to Prussian troops movements in the Electorate, and a standoff at Hanau seems inevitable.

Meanwhile these alarming developments are met with surprising nonchalance through some of the German states. Saxony remains in the Prussian sphere out of fear if nothing else, as King Frederick Augustus now virtually owes his throne to Prussian troops twice over. Hannover disassociates from the Alliance of Three Kings in response to developments, but King Ernest Augustus refuses to engage with the conflict any further. The King of Württemberg, friendly to Bavarian interests but also conscious of the Prussian role in restoring his throne, cannot pledge more than quiet verbal support of Bavaria’s standing up to Prussia. Austria is also of course supportive of Bavaria and furiously perceives Prussia as the aggressor, but is still regrouping her forces elsewhere in the empire and does not have the resources to provide proper military support.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author's Note: Okay, so that's how things go so far. One possible end goal I have in mind is to partition the two Hessian states. Prussia gets all of the Electorate, Bavaria gets Starkenburg province of the Grand Duchy, and Oberhessen either retains its independence as the reduced Duchy of Hesse (as mediation), gets absorbed into the Duchy of Nassau (also as mediation), or is absorbed into Prussia (if Prussia ends up as top dog). At least if Bavaria gets Starkenburg province and Prussia gets the Electorate, both have access to their Rhine provinces and can be happy with that.

I was reluctant to make territorial changes in other parts of Europe, but in reading more I think territorial changes in Germany are not as much of a shock to the system because no one was really willing to go in to Germany to clean things up. If the German states themselves are dictating the terms, then they'll be happy to settle on results that ensure a strategic victory, even if it comes in a limited sense. As I mentioned in the update, since the Grand Duke is childless I think it is not out of the question for him to lose his position for the sake of a strategic victory. And of course the Elector is just toast.
 

knin

Thanks, Caoster.

Of course I've had more time to write than usual the past few days thanks to a lovely snowstorm, but I'm at such a block on how to get from crisis to resolution on this Hesse thing. As I said, I can see where it ends up, but not how to get there. Frustrating! Hopefully will have it figured out this weekend.
 

knin

Caoster said:
You left out Rhenish Hesse. What happens to that?

The Grand Duke is childless, but not without an heir. His heir is currently his brother, Prince Charles, and then would be his nephew, Louis IV, and King Fredierick William IV of Prussia's 1st cousin once removed. Louis the IV, by the way, would marry Prince Alice of Great Britain, and have quite a few children of historical importance and much haemophilia. Currently, however, he is a 12 year old boy.

I would also point out the Frederick William IV of Prussia has a claim to Hesse-Darmstadt from both his mother and his father. His mother is a great-grandaughter of Louis VIII(Landgrave) by way of his second son George William.. His father is also a great-grandson of Louis VIII, by way of his first son, Louis IX, Landgrave of Hesse-Darmstadt. Frederick William IV's parents were second cousins. He has a pretty damn strong claim of Hesse-Darmstadt in his own right.

In fact, I would need to double check who is in line after Louis II's(Grand Duke)'s offspring. It could very well be Frederick William IV(assuming allowing cognates, his paternal grandmother is the ELDER sister of Louis I, Grand Duke). Of Louis I's offspring, only Louis II had children in the male line.

The Grand Duke could disinherit his brother/nephew, and name the King of Prussia his heir, with the stipulation he remain on the Ducal throne the rest of the his natural life. The Austrians used to pull stuff like that all the time. They would defeat a foe, let him remain in power, so long as he named one of them his heir.

This was done, for example http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Vienna_%281738%29 When Francis I became heir to the grand Duke of Tuscany.
Click to expand...

The idea was for Rheinhessen and Starkenburg (H-D) to go to Bavaria, Hesse-Kassel to Prussia, and then I wasn't sure what to do with Oberhessen (which is part of H-D).

Thanks for that good info, I think that might actually help give me an idea of what to do.
 

knin

1850, in Germany, cont. (part 2)

Though Bavarian troops currently occupy parts of the Grand Duchy of Hesse, Prussian King Frederick William believes he can press his own claim to the territory and force King Maximilian to back his troops down. Though his personal claim on the lands could stand on its own, he realizes it will be more legitimate coming from within, as his cousin Elisabeth married the Grand Duke’s brother Charles, who is the only viable heir to the lands since the Grand Duke himself is childless. Charles is a military man and hardly interested in his brother’s title, and could easily be convinced to abdicate on behalf of his cousin the King of Prussia. His son could be compensated with some title in Prussia; of that matter King Frederick William worries little.

In order to press his claim he will need to provoke a Bavarian attack that will give him a pretext to intercede. As tense as the situation is in Hanau and in Steinheim, across the Main in the Grand Duchy, such actions take little effort. Bavarian troops apprehend a detachment of Prussians attempting to cross the bridge into Steinheim, causing the Prussian commanding officer to threaten an attack unless they are released. A pitched battle is avoided, but several skirmishes over the next week involving result in several injuries on both sides and one Bavarian is killed. Further attempts by Prussia to cross into the Grand Duchy are met with resistance by both Bavarian and Hessian troops.

As much as the Grand Duke dreads being absorbed by Prussia, he equally seeks to avoid plunging his nation into a state of war, and urges Bavaria to join him in seeking an agreement with Prussia to resolve the conflict. When this is relayed back to Berlin, King Frederick William invites the Grand Duke, the Elector, and King Maximilian to Berlin for a conference on the situation.


From the start, King Frederick William makes it quite clear that the Elector faces certain death if he returns to rule his state, and must abdicate in favor of Prussia if order is to be restored. The Grand Duke realizes that his title is in just as much jeopardy if Prussia is demanding annexation, and that he must find a way to appease Prussia while ensuring he can remain within the Bavarian sphere. He proposes ceding Oberhessen to Prussia and allowing his brother to take up a position in the Prussian army, in exchange for King Frederick William dropping his claim to the Grand Duchy. On his death, his lands will pass to the King of Bavaria, whose troops will remain in Hesse in order to keep open their lines of communication to the Palatinate. Bavaria will also not oppose Prussia's annexation of the southern Hohenzollern provinces under the agreement.

The Prussian King finds the Grand Duke and Maximilian surprisingly obstinate in their opposition to him, and realizes that it is unlikely he will dislodge Bavaria from the remainder of the Grand Duchy without significant bloodshed, as it will not happen diplomatically. Prussia has gained great political capital by restoring order, but the king is not sure if it is enough to undertake such action unilaterally. And in any case, by gaining acceptance of his claim to the Electorate and parts of the Grand Duchy, he will have his own lines of the communication to the Rhine provinces much more open, and he can be seen as willing to negotiate with his neighbors. The final details are to be set down in a treaty, but this compromise is verbally agreed to by the three main parties. The Elector leaves empty-handed.

With Austria shut out of the solution to the Hessian conflict, the vague attempts at continuing negotiation in London are largely unsuccessful while Austria refuses to accept a Prussian-brokered deal. Once that deal becomes a de-facto reality, the negotiations take on a distinctly different tone. Prussian proposals become Prussian demands, and the Prussian Prime Minister dictates the direction of the conversation with increasing vehemence. Finally, he threatens to return to the German states and create a parliamentary body that excludes Austria altogether if it will not accept a Prussian presidency. Reluctant but without the political or military capital to refuse, Austrian officials accept the perceived humiliation of renouncing their presidency of the Confederation, and accept the resolution in Hesse as agreed to by the parties in Berlin. A new parliament and executive body would be called in the following year to hammer out the details of the Confederation’s future, but both Prussia and Austria agreed that such an assembly should not happen at Frankfurt again for the associated implications of 1848.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author's Note: Map to come shortly.
 
Last edited:

knin

Key for the map:

Dark Grey - Kingdom of Prussia
Light Grey - to Prussia

Dark Green - Kingdom of Bavaria
Light Green - occupied by Bavaria, to be ceded upon Grand Duke's death

Purple - Austrian Empire

Salmon - Kingdom of Saxony
Yellow - Kingdom of Hannover
Blue - Kingdom of Württemburg

1850rev.png
 

knin

1851, in Italy (and in France)

Retribution against the "republican experiment" of 1848-9 came perhaps most strongly on the Italian peninsula, where the few bastions of populism were almost entirely snuffed out in the conservative reaction. Once the more prominent leaders of the Venetian republican had been transferred to Austria proper, they had remained imprisoned for almost a year. Finally, they are sentenced to exile and expected to leave the continent. Garibaldi will appear briefly in North Africa before seemingly disappearing into anonymity in America, while Mazzini moves to London to continue the struggle for Italian independence. Both men, along with their compatriots, are assured they will be arrested if they ever return to Austrian-controlled Italy, which becomes something of a hell. Austrian administration remains exceedingly harsh, and what few freedoms that had been extended to other citizens of the empire are not extended to those living in the Italian territories, where the press is controlled tightly and troops conspicuously keep the peace.

For Rome and the other Papal territories, despite the initial protection of French troops, their support had all but melted away. Despite Louis Napoleon's adamant protestations, he had very nearly lost his presidency after multiple attempts to force through a treaty ratifying French support for republican Rome. He had dissolved his own government in late 1849, but still lack the support in the National Assembly needed to enact his legislative will. As an apparent concession to his vocal Parti d'Ordre detractors, he had pulleed his support for the Roman republic, instructing his troops to break up the revolutionary government and to prepare the city for the return of the Pope.

This action was of course a death blow to the republic, which had been hanging by a thread even before the French arrival. Lacking effective leadership, now completely isolated and without clear or reachable goals, the government had virtually dissolved in early 1850 even before French troops took action, leaving the door open for the Pope and his ministers to return. Louis Napoleon had ordered part of the expeditionary force to remain behind to oversee the transition back to Papal rule, and maintained that a stipulation of his turning power back over to the Pope was that the restored government would act in good faith and accept some of the requested reforms. Instead, a vicious round-up of political opponents had begun, much like what was occurring in the neighboring Two Sicilies, resulting in the imprisonment of thousands.

Louis Napoleon's abandonment of the Roman republicans was seen as a betrayal by the French left, who suddenly began to question their support of the Prince-President. The beleaguered French leader found himself seemingly without allies, villified by the Parti d'Ordre and abandoned by his base. However, his opponents in the National Assembly granted him a huge boon when they overstepped their political capital and passed a law in mid-1850 that all but repealed universal male suffrage. The left was outraged, and the Prince-President took the opportunity to restore his support among the masses.

He toured the country, giving speeches and presiding over rallies in support of the people's democratic rights and the duplicity of their elected officials, who had turned their electoral mandate on its head by cementing their own power and changing the rules of the game. By the late fall, he felt he had enough support to demand a vote, but was defeated by the staunchly pro-Parti Assembly. Nevertheless, Louis Napoleon was not deterred.

As the calendar turns to 1851, he begins to plot for his political future. He takes to touring the country once more, this time combining his platform of populism with a more personal campaign to amend the constitution to allow him to run for president again, since he is obligated to step down at the end of his four-year term. He argues that the Parti d'Ordre will manipulate the polarized situation to create a regime that goes against the will of the people if he is not allowed to run on their behalf. He points to the conservative reactions throughout Europe as what will serve as a model for the Parti should they come to full power upon his exit.

It is a brilliant political strategy, and succeeds in winning over broad segments of the population, including the army and even some in the National Assembly. When the matter comes to a full vote in July, votes in support of the change outnumber the dissenting votes by a significant margin, but it still short of the two-thirds needed to change the constitution. Demonstrations across the country follow the results, as the people protest on behalf of their beloved Prince-President. With the support of the people apparently firmly in place, Louis Napoleon moves quickly to initiate a personal power grab.

He once again dissolves his own government, but this time also moves to disband the National Assembly, placing himself personally in charge of the country under a state of emergency. The army assists in ensuring the public takes Louis Napoleon's seizure of power peacefully, and as his opposition is rounded up and arrested, many fear retribution. He promises to hold new elections based upon the old law of universal male suffrage, but delays its formation until the state of emergency is lifted. In the meantime, a referendum is organized in August to demonstrate a mandate for the coup. Results return well over 80% support, though most of his opponents either boycott the election or had already been imprisoned anyway. Assured of his legitimacy, the Prince-President embarks on his programme of imposing near-full personal control, appointing and firing ministers at will and continuing to fill prisons with lesser enemies while forcing the more well-known dissenters into exile abroad.

Despite his disdain for the Pope, Louis Napoleon has little use for the issue of Rome now that the Pope is returned and his concern must be on domestic issues. Thus he uses the pretext of the state of emergency to justify the withdrawal of the remaining French troops from Rome. With no further checks on his power, the Pope gives free reign to tighten control over his populace. Of course, in retribution for reneging on the deal and for personal spite, Louis Napoleon reacts by curtailing the provisions of the recently passed Falloux Laws.

Designed to ensure Catholic clergy will remain instrumental in managing and directing French education, the laws are instead rewritten to reduce clerical representation in positions of power on educational councils, most notably the Superior Council of Public Institution. However, Louis Napoleon realizes wholesale change will greatly reduce the amount of financial support giving to statewide education, and maintains the provisions which allow bishops to teach freely and which uphold the power of privately-run schools associated with the Church. Despite the increasingly similar trends in political power, the French withdrawal and the increasing pressure on French Catholics will continue put the Pope and Louis Napoleon at odds in the coming years.

Even Piedmont-Sardinia sees an increasing tendency towards despotism and repression. The Piedmontese government is led by Pier Dionigi Pinelli, who had been appointed by Victor Emmanuel II after successfully dealing with riots in Genoa in 1849. Pinelli proves exceptionally loyal to the king's personal rule and, as a result, frequently butts heads with Massimo d'Azeglio, Minister of Justice and one of the few outspoken liberals in the government. Heeding the warning Radetzky had given him before their peace treaty, Victor Emmanuel is careful to prevent the liberal faction from gaining too much power in parliament. The king remains firmly opposed to moving closer to Austria's diplomatic orbit, and instead maintains open channels with France, especially after Louis Napoleon's mid-summer coup.
 

knin

Author's Note: Why study for midterms when you could be writing? :D In all seriousness, due to RL piling up there might be a bit of gap between this, the last update of the intermission, and what will follow, which is likely to be another alt-style update.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1852, in Serbia

As unrest in the Ottoman Balkans continues into its fourth year, ineffectual and inadequate military response from the Porte is largely to blame. On the recommendation of several key advisers, General Omar Pasha had been appointed to the command in Bosnia late in 1850, as a result of his success in putting down other rebellions in the Levant and Albania earlier in his military career.

Though evidence of Serbian involvement had been overwhelming, very little pressure had been put on Prince Aleksandar and his government to withdraw, partially due to international pressures, but also due to the general expectations of the Ottoman strategy. Pasha had believed he could defeat the rebels in the field, a sentiment which, despite some small early successes, did not pan out in the slightest. After stalling in Bosnia, he had decided to isolate the smaller segments of the rebellion and refocus his resources where he feels he can win the most decisively.

This move is risky, as it involves moving on one of his own, the Ottoman governor-general of Herzegovina, Rizvanbegović, who had in all truth become more of a detriment to the war effort through his independent actions (and failures) against the Herzegovinian Serbs and their Montenegrin allies. After executing the wayward general, Pasha had managed to reclaim most of Herzegovina by the end of 1851, aided in part by the sudden withdrawal of Montenegrin forces. The results are to push the Serbs back into Bosnia proper and the Montenegrins once again south of Nikšić. While the fighting rages on sporadically, Pasha attempts to restore central authority to Herzegovina by moving against the aristocracy and stripping the nobles of their special status, executing those who resist. Unsurprisingly, this strategy will only provoke rebellion anew.

By 1852, the brief power struggle which had followed the death of Prince-Bishop Petar in Montenegro had for the most part subsided, with Danilo and his brother Mirko once again having the upper hand in squabbles with the unruly chieftains. Nevertheless, the damage to Danilo's prestige and position is enough to force him to reconsider his unilateral declaration of separation from Russia, having seen that pretenders to his throne are much more likely as long as his legitimacy is in question. Thus Danilo feels he must resolve his status vis-à-vis the Russian patriarchy before his rule will be truly accepted, and decides to undertake a journey to the tsar's court himself, leaving his brother in charge as voivode and urging him to continue the war.

With anti-Ottoman sentiment in Herzegovina even higher than before and the perfect opportunity to distract disgruntled chieftains from Danilo's absence, Mirko plunges Montenegro once more into the conflict by pledging support for the leader of the revolting Serbs, Luka Vukalović. Responding to this renewed threat, Pasha endeavors to knock Montenegro back out of the conflict quickly and end their meddling altogether, organizing his own troops as well as additional reinforcements from Albania to attack the tiny country from multiple directions.

The Montenegrins, who had fought the Ottomans for centuries and managed to maintain their proud tradition of independence, know exactly which routes Pasha's forces will use and make ready for a desperate defense. Though fighting in the first few days is exceptionally fierce on multiple fronts and even the women and children must assist the warriors defending several strategic valleys near Nikšić and Grahovo, the defenses hold as Montenegrin tactical superiority prevails and stabilizes parts of the front.

Nevertheless, Ottoman forces do break through in the Ostrog valley, where the Montenegrins make a desperate last stand at a strategically significant monastery, choosing a limited detachment of highly skilled warriors to defend it while the bulk of the forces in the valley retreat to regroup. Despite overwhelming odds, the monastery holds long enough for the regrouped forces along with reinforcements to make a show of force and cause the Ottomans to pull back, which in turn causes General Pasha to reconsider his campaign altogether. He is unwilling to overcommit troops and resources to Montenegro, knowing how difficult it will be to conquer even part of the mountainous nation under such adamant resistance, and lose what gains he had made in Bosnia all over again. Through the summer the situation regresses to the same stalemate that has largely predominated for almost four years.

At the same time, the drawn-out conflict had finally begun to draw the attention of the Great Powers, who seem ever more receptive to the plight of the Serbs, though still not at the expense of Ottoman sovereignty. The pro-Slav faction at French court remains robust and appears to make inroads in regards to French support, however quiet and begrudging, to the rebels, marking a notable departure from contemporaneous British policy. Austria and Russia continue to suspect the other's hand in events, but their mutual interest in a Serbia they believe they can control translates into pressure on the Porte to deal with the rebellion as a local and internal matter, sparing the Principality the same direct pressure Austria herself had lobbied against it during the brief Serbian intervention in Hungary.

In Serbia, domestic unrest begins to bubble up to the surface over the Prince's apparent refusal to acknowledge publicly support for the Bosnian Serbs. Garašanin, now the most powerful man in the country, knows far better than to derail the progress he has made with a true international incident that would force Austria and Russia's hands. All of the involved parties know Serbia is a player without her having to say so, which means that when the Powers impose a settlement on the Porte, as he is under the impression that they will, they will recognize Serbia's suzerainty over the Serbs and award concessions to Serbia. To make this dream a reality, Garašanin and his diplomats work particularly hard on France and Austria. The overtures to France reflect growing support in Paris for Serbia and his own personal feeling that perhaps France is Serbia's only true ally in the dangerous game of European power politics. His conversations with Austria reflect two main purposes: first, to annoy Russia and keep both powers more curious about each other's plans for Serbia rather than his own, but more importantly, because Austria had finally agreed to reorganize the administration of Croatia in response to 1848-9, Garašanin believes Austria and in particular the emperor are becoming more receptive to a more equal relationship with his Slav subjects and their neighbors under the Porte. His negotiations continue into 1853, until an event occurs that shatters all pretenses of European peace and changes the momentum of Europe's 'Eastern Question.'

--------------------------------END OF INTERMISSION-------------------------

Author's Note: Any subscribers out there? Would love to hear your feedback. Thanks for reading!
 

De von Of

I'm also reading and quietly hoping that Austria gets a little more love.

But that grand history of military defeat has to come from somewhere right? ;)
 

knin

Pannonius II said:
Oh, don't worry! I'm reading. I'm just more knowledgeable about Hungary and Austria.
Click to expand...

Oh okay! I hope those sections are both plausible and interesting. The next one will definitely be of interest to you :D

De von Of said:
I'm also reading and quietly hoping that Austria gets a little more love.

But that grand history of military defeat has to come from somewhere right? ;)
Click to expand...

Alas, I suppose I have been a little tough on Austria thus far. But I think Austria has the potential to get more love, particularly if she can be, uh, leaner and trimmer in her strength and focus. Am I giving away too much?
 

De von Of

knin said:
Oh okay! I hope those sections are both plausible and interesting. The next one will definitely be of interest to you :D



Alas, I suppose I have been a little tough on Austria thus far. But I think Austria has the potential to get more love, particularly if she can be, uh, leaner and trimmer in her strength and focus. Am I giving away too much?
Click to expand...

Does this mean that Austria will be forced to decide between Germany and the East two decades earlier in this timeline? Or am I misinterpreting this statement?
 

knin

De von Of said:
Does this mean that Austria will be forced to decide between Germany and the East two decades earlier in this timeline? Or am I misinterpreting this statement?
Click to expand...

In essence, yes. TTL's Eastern War (I do not believe the Crimean War moniker of OTL will apply so easily here) will have quite different dynamics, the least of which is that an event in Austria is the spark that will lead to a much larger conflagration, therefore Austria cannot and will not remain on the sidelines.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top