For the Nation, For the People: 1848 and Beyond

A this stage Drang nach Osten is probably Austria's best option to regain prestige after what happened through the revolutions. I'm hoping this TL Knin will see Austria break the Hungarian nobility permanently :). Regardless I'll follow it still simply because of the larger role of its survival Austria has played in this TL than so many others.
 
Author's Note: From intermission we move to...

Interlude II: Hungary and the Fate of an Emperor - February, 1853

"Though the idea of placing a Romanov relation on the throne of Hungary and destroying the backbone of Austrian power presented Tsar Nicholas with an intriguing opportunity for mischief, he was not interested in subverting the young emperor's power - yet. Challenging it, certainly, but Tsar Nicholas was after all a conservative and a firm monarchist, who took his role as 'Gendarme of Europe' quite seriously. The Habsburgs were rivals, but necessary ones.

Then there was the matter of the offered candidate. Maximillian had contracted pneumonia which had then quickly become tuberculosis on an expedition in the Urals in the winter of 1846-47 [1], and was told his illness was terminal. He resided with his wife, the tsar's daughter, at court in St. Petersburg, but often undertook journeys across the continent in search of someone who could find him a cure. Of course, his dire condition was kept secret and Kossuth could not have known that his proposal was dead on arrival.

As the war wrapped up, Hungarian commanders were instructed to surrender only to their Russian counterparts, who treated them with respect and honor. This would stand in stark contrast to principal men of Görgei's army captured by the Austrians further west, who were brutally and summarily executed. General Paskievich promised the Hungarians he would see to their good treatment once they were handed over to the Austrians, but reports out of Italy and the example of Görgei cast doubt among the Russians and Hungarians alike of whether fair treatment could truly be guaranteed.

Thus several key leaders of the revolution including Kossuth and Guyon quietly 'escaped' through Russian-occupied Wallachia into the Ottoman Empire, where some would stay but most arranged for further passage onto Britain, France, or even America. The role of Russian officers in facilitating their departure from Hungary was never fully clear, but Austrian General Jacob von Haynau was particularly infuriated that his so-called allies from Russia refused to help him hunt down missing Hungarians, and so it can be said that even if Paskievich and his generals did not assist the revolutionaries, they did not hinder them.

This final Russian jab at Franz Joseph and Austria gave von Haynau an excuse during his brief time as military governor of Hungary to instigate a reign of terror, furiously seeking out suspected revolutionaries and arresting or executing them..."


excerpted from Michael Simakov's Prelude to Winter: Russia's European Role before the Eastern War, 1815-1853, Saint Petersburg, 1997.
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"Inspired by hard-liners like Schwarzenberg and frustrated by Russian obfuscation, Franz Joseph was convinced to punish Hungary harshly for almost succeeding in its uprising. The 'hyena of Brescia', von Haynau, had been appointed to lead the army that finally defeated and captured Görgei, and was the one to order his execution. He then swept further east behind the Russian army advancing further south, undertaking reprisals and conscripting prisoners.

As the Russians slowly began to retreat from Hungary and Austrian authority was restored, von Haynau became a virtual military dictator on the ground while at court in Vienna every possible official legal measure was taken against the Magyar kingdom. As in Italy, all constitutional privileges were revoked and manifestations of local government, including the county system, abolished. Though the emperor would retain the title 'Apostolic King of Hungary', any special status guaranteed to Hungary within the Empire was taken away, including its suzerainty over other lands.

Any pretense of Hungarian control over Transylvania was formally struck down as Ludwig von Wohlgemuth, an Austrian general, was appointed as military and civilian governor in Hermannstadt. The kingdoms of Croatia and Slavonia were legally separated from Hungary and placed under direct imperial control. The border of Slavonia was extended west to include the largely Slav areas of Bačka and near Petrovaradin, with the military frontier extended accordingly. A newly created Duchy of Banat [2] was carved out of the remaining southern portion of Hungary, designed to accomodate the local German and Romanian minorities.

Though these actions saw ethnic minorities rewarded as a result of punishing Hungary, Austrian officials felt direct control and territorial restructuring would placate them for a time. And in any case, a strict crackdown on nationalist publications hampered efforts, especially in Croatia and Slavonia, to organize the people politically. As a punishment to Josip Jelačić for his independent actions during the war and a further check on nationalist sentiments, he was confirmed as Ban only in Croatia, while Slavonia received another Croat, Josip Šokčević, as its leader and Dalmatia an Austrian deemed more loyal to the emperor. Suddenly the triune kingdoms were truly three, and further efforts to reunite them were, at least for the time being, severely hampered by political separation."


excerpted from Robert Morgan's Revolutionary Twilight: the Conservative Reaction to 1848 in Europe, New York, 1973.
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"von Haynau served as military governor of Hungary for less than a year, but his legacy would continue even after his resignation through the next several years, as the Austrian military occupation devoted to imposing harsh punishment on the rebellious Hungarians continued. The administration of the country chafed aristocrats and the poorer classes alike, and resulting in near-universal simmering hatred for the Austrian army. The official line was for Hungarians to embrace passive resistance, but many more radical nationalists, even those living outside of Hungary, were less inclined to do so.

As Emperor Franz Joseph walked along the Kärtnertor bastion in the afternoon of February 18th, 1853, he paused to watch infantry training below him. Dressed as always in full military uniform, he was accompanied by his aide-de-camp Count Maximillian O'Donnell. From behind approached János Libényi, a Hungarian nationalist and former soldier turned tailor. It is not definitively known whether Libényi's supposed radicalism was his primary motivation that day, but among historians today it is widely held as such.

Apparently inspired by anger over the reprisals against Hungary and enraged by the sight of the emperor in military garb, Libényi tackled the emperor from behind and stabbed him the back and side [3] several times before O'Donnell could wrench him off. In the ensuing scuffle Libényi himself was stabbed and killed while the emperor lay dying. Every effort was made to move the emperor so that he could receive medical treatment, but the knife had done its damage and bleeding both internal and external was too much for rudimentary medical assistance to be effective. By the end of the day, Franz Joseph was dead at 22.

Vienna, and indeed the entire empire, was sent into a state of shock..."


excerpted from Karl Scheider's The Last Emperor: the Reign of Franz Joseph, 1848-1853, Munich, 1965.

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[1] As his sickness's origins predate the PoD, this is as OTL. He died in late 1852.

[2] This is different from the OTL creation called the Voivodeship of Serbia and Banat of Temesvar. I'll work on a map so one can see the differences.

[3] As you might know, iOTL Libényi attempted to stab the emperor in the neck, where he was most protected by the stiff material used to make collars in Austrian military uniforms. The emperor was wounded but recovered, and Libényi was apprehended and executed after a snap trial. Franz Joseph's survival was inspiration for the building of the Votivkirche located on Vienna's Ringstrasse.
 
By the end of the day, Franz Joseph was dead at 22.

Now that's quite the departure from OTL. Maximillian in charge ... 'course the question now is whether he'll be as liberal as he was OTL or if he'll go the way of Nicholas II or, more locally, Franz II.

That said, I do like this time-line of yours, it's kept me on the edge of my seat. First I thought it was going to see Austria collapse in 1848, then that there was going to be a Republican Germany without Austria or Prussia ... I honestly am interested in seeing where you intend to take this.
 
Wow, with Ferenc Jóska (-his nickname in Hungarian-) dead, I really have no idea what will happen. At first I thought Hungary is better off thus far than OTL, but the execution of Görgei (-he is my favorite Hungarian of the 19th century besides Széchenyi-) was unexpected. He could have easily hold the fortress of Komárom. In OTL, Klapka could hold out even until September 27th.!

One question. Who is the leader of the resistance? Among the immigrants is probably Kossuth, but in the country? Is it Deák or Teleki (-the passive vs active resistance-) ?
 
"Sure was a nice empire we had once..."

I'm curious what Bavaria's plans long term are. OTL Maximillian wanted to build a third power pole in Germany, aligned with neither Austria or Prussia.

TTL Austria just imploded, again(I assume FJ's death is going to be an issue).

Does Bavaria keep trying to stand alone with the other minor non-aligned princes? Does she join with Prussia, seeing Austria falling apart?

Austria's oppression TTL set herself up for an even worse time when Prussia comes calling, and all the other minor principalities, which Austria tried to setup to reward them and punish Hungary, are also now well prepared for independence.

I very much doubt that there will be any significant uprisings following FJ's death. All the significant Hungarian revolutionaries are either dead or dispersed all over the world.

The various minorities are placated by getting rid of Hungarian dominance.

I think it is far more likely that we will have an entirely peaceful transition from FJ to Maximilian.


Also, the Prussian army isn't anything to write home about at this point. The reforms of Roon and Moltke are still several years off.

The Austrian army also hasn't been crippled by the post-crimean budget cuts yet, in fact it seems far more likely to me that under Maximilian (who was actually competent, compared to FJ), Radetzky gets the funding for his great reforms and the Austrian army goes out of the 1848 mess stronger than ever.
 
Whew, okay! I'm glad the big event got some discussion going. Thanks to everyone for your replies, it helps me in my planning as well. I'll try to answer several questions, though in terms of the general nature of the discussion I'm afraid you'll just have to wait and see...

Now that's quite the departure from OTL. Maximillian in charge ... 'course the question now is whether he'll be as liberal as he was OTL or if he'll go the way of Nicholas II or, more locally, Franz II.

That said, I do like this time-line of yours, it's kept me on the edge of my seat. First I thought it was going to see Austria collapse in 1848, then that there was going to be a Republican Germany without Austria or Prussia ... I honestly am interested in seeing where you intend to take this.

Thank you! This big departure was one I had been planning from the beginning, as it will really set the butterflies aflutter. Hold on to your seat!

Wow, with Ferenc Jóska (-his nickname in Hungarian-) dead, I really have no idea what will happen. At first I thought Hungary is better off thus far than OTL, but the execution of Görgei (-he is my favorite Hungarian of the 19th century besides Széchenyi-) was unexpected. He could have easily hold the fortress of Komárom. In OTL, Klapka could hold out even until September 27th.!

One question. Who is the leader of the resistance? Among the immigrants is probably Kossuth, but in the country? Is it Deák or Teleki (-the passive vs active resistance-) ?

Unfortunately, proud Görgei was the only Hungarian general really doing any fighting by the late summer, and so when a tactical blunder resulted in his defeat and capture, it wasn't hard for Haynau to justify his execution. So, instead of the 13 martyrs, we have really only one.

One prominent figure who sort of fell out of my updates was Lajos Batthyány (oops). iOTL he was captured when the Austrians took Buda in Jan 1849, then later executed the same day as the 13 martyrs. Since the Austrians never really took Buda during the war, I think it is reasonable to say Batthyány was one of the ones who could (or likely was told by his peers to) get out before he could be arrested and executed. Perhaps you might know, what effects might his survival have on the direction of Hungarian politics?

In terms of the passive resistance, I had envisioned Deák as its leader, as he is the most prominent Hungarian still in the country who the Austrians can accept to leave by and large alone. Which Teleki were you referring to? Adam?

Have the butterflies affected the United States yet?

I am still deciding what if anything I want to change about the course of American history in this decade. Nothing I have written so far prompts me to say anything would be radically different across the pond as of yet.

Not enough time. The Crimean war (TTL Eastern War) will start in less than a year. Austria has had a little more than 2 years to recover from a destructive 2+ year civil war.

In less than a year indeed. Chaos in Austria gives Nicholas a chance to make a power play in the Balkans...
 
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Also, while I'm working on the next update, here's a map as promised of the southern frontier of the Empire after the changes:

Lavender - other Crownlands
Salmon - Military Districts of Hungary (von Haynau; later Duke of Teschen)
Blue - Grand Principality of Transylvania (von Wohlgemuth)
Orange - Kingdom of Croatia (Jelačić)
Green - Kingdom of Slavonia (Šokčević)
Pink - Duchy of Banat (Coronini-Cronberg)
Aqua - Austrian-administered military frontier
Red - Ottoman Bosnia (in revolt)
Brown - Principality of Serbia
Olive - Principality of Wallachia

duchy1852.png
 
Batthyány was one of the ones who could (or likely was told by his peers to) get out before he could be arrested and executed. Perhaps you might know, what effects might his survival have on the direction of Hungarian politics?

Which Teleki were you referring to? Adam?

I think Batthyány would likely to emigrate, as he was considered by the Habsburgs one of the key figures of the revolution. Maybe go with Kossuth?

This Teleki.
One small thing, what happened to Petőfi? If you had any thoughts about him.
 
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Also, while I'm working on the next update, here's a map as promised of the southern frontier of the Empire after the changes:

Interesting. So Vienna has decided to really punish the Hungarians...while at the same time rewarding other people even less than IOTL. (Croatia split into three, Vojvodina non-existent...only the Romanians have something to be temporarily happy about) That doesn't sound like a recipe for stability. On the other hand, Franz Josef's early death could actually help long-term stability in the Empire, but I imagine outside events are going to spiral out of his successor's control sooner or later.

Kossuth and his circle of emigres probably have more power and influence ITTL.

And the last post reminds me, what (if anything) happened to Miklos Wesselenyi?
 
I think Batthyány would likely to emigrate, as he was considered by the Habsburgs one of the key figures of the revolution. Maybe go with Kossuth?

This was my thought as well.

This Teleki.
One small thing, what happened to Petőfi? If you had any thoughts about him.

I would imagine Teleki would leave as well, as did in iOTL to Switzerland. Interestingly enough, my thought was that Switzerland would be the haven for German republicans fleeing from Baden/Palatinate after that uprising. Perhaps Teleki would go elsewhere iTTL.

I'm not so sure about Petöfi, there was a battle of Segesvár iTTL, so he could just as easily have been there and been killed. Or not...I will think on this.

Interesting. So Vienna has decided to really punish the Hungarians...while at the same time rewarding other people even less than IOTL. (Croatia split into three, Vojvodina non-existent...only the Romanians have something to be temporarily happy about) That doesn't sound like a recipe for stability. On the other hand, Franz Josef's early death could actually help long-term stability in the Empire, but I imagine outside events are going to spiral out of his successor's control sooner or later.

In essence, the idea was to punish Hungary outright while getting also getting back at Jelačić. I had considered having Todorović, the Croat lieutenant who had been fighting in that area, installed as Ban of Slavonia, but my argument against was that Todorović had been loyal to Jelačić and they would be more comfortable installing someone who they had direct control over, like Šokčević (he had fought at Venice). I think the problem this creates is how to get Serbia and the Austrian Slavs to work together, as they now must deal with three separate entities instead of essentially one. Dalmatia especially will be moving in a different direction and hard for the Croats and the Serbs to move closer to.

Kossuth and his circle of emigres probably have more power and influence ITTL.

Here's an interesting thought: what if Kossuth and the Hungarian émigrés set up a lobby for Hungarian interests in London à la Czartoryski in Paris? It would provide an interesting wedge between French and British foreign policy interests in the East, and might make it harder for them to work together in the future. Lord Palmerston especially, who was in and out of office as Foreign Minister and Prime Minister in Britain during this time, was an especially vocal supporter of Hungary.

And the last post reminds me, what (if anything) happened to Miklos Wesselenyi?

Goodness, I need to work on my awareness of prominent Hungarians! According to what I read, he was sick and nearly blind from a time predating the PoD, no? He had left the country before the PoD for sure I believe. So its likely he stayed abroad and passed away before 1853.
 
Maybe Petőfi could go full Byron and join a foreign revolutionary and/or independence war. It would be toootally in character (maybe a US civil war?). He was a prominent supporter of a "World Revolution" after all.

A Hungarian lobby in London really depends on the British plan with Austria (holding up Russia and all).
 
In essence, the idea was to punish Hungary outright while getting also getting back at Jelačić. I had considered having Todorović, the Croat lieutenant who had been fighting in that area, installed as Ban of Slavonia, but my argument against was that Todorović had been loyal to Jelačić and they would be more comfortable installing someone who they had direct control over, like Šokčević (he had fought at Venice). I think the problem this creates is how to get Serbia and the Austrian Slavs to work together, as they now must deal with three separate entities instead of essentially one. Dalmatia especially will be moving in a different direction and hard for the Croats and the Serbs to move closer to.

That sounds realistic enough for the Austrian Empire's policy...but it's still quite bizarre in a few ways. For one, it looks like the new borders turned Slavonia into some kind of a Vojvodina on drugs that neither the Croats nor the Serbs wanted. (which could be both good and bad for the communication between Austrian Slavs and Serbia)
Here's an interesting thought: what if Kossuth and the Hungarian émigrés set up a lobby for Hungarian interests in London à la Czartoryski in Paris? It would provide an interesting wedge between French and British foreign policy interests in the East, and might make it harder for them to work together in the future. Lord Palmerston especially, who was in and out of office as Foreign Minister and Prime Minister in Britain during this time, was an especially vocal supporter of Hungary.

Right, and Louis Napoleon has no love for Hungary, at least not at this point in time...
Goodness, I need to work on my awareness of prominent Hungarians! According to what I read, he was sick and nearly blind from a time predating the PoD, no? He had left the country before the PoD for sure I believe. So its likely he stayed abroad and passed away before 1853.

He left before the PoD and died in 1850 while traveling back to Hungary. The PoD could have butterflied something about his medical treatment in a different direction, but I agree, most likely he'd just end up the same way. Just asking because I think he's a fascinating character, and one of the most positive of the Hungarian revolutionaries.
 
That sounds realistic enough for the Austrian Empire's policy...but it's still quite bizarre in a few ways. For one, it looks like the new borders turned Slavonia into some kind of a Vojvodina on drugs that neither the Croats nor the Serbs wanted. (which could be both good and bad for the communication between Austrian Slavs and Serbia)

Indeed, it's a bit of a strange creation. Not necessarily a recipe for peace and harmony...though I will say, at this point, the Croat nationalist movement was much less developed and active than the Serb one.

Right, and Louis Napoleon has no love for Hungary, at least not at this point in time...

I think it would require both Britain and France to accept that trying to prop up Austria is no longer feasible, which in turn would require quite a conflagration with FJ's successor.
 
Author's Note: It's back from the dead! Or I'm just back from vacation and then dealing with the mountain of work that piled up during it, whichever seems more plausible to you. This will be the start of Part II, and I'm afraid it's not the most action-packed update but I felt I needed to get some words on the page and get back into the writing mindset after this little hiatus. So without further ado...

March 1853

Though the official period of mourning for the imperial family is kept relatively short so as not to completely distract from the coronation of Franz Joseph's brother Maximilian, it must be noted that the vibrancy and livelihood of the imperial capital would not truly return for the better part of a year following the terrible events of February 18th. Regardless of their personal opinions, no one seemed to believe it possible that an emperor, especially one as young as he, could be struck down by an assassin so ordinary as the Hungarian tailor.

After the much-muted pomp of his coronation, Maximilian is left with the herculean task of dealing with the legacy of crises on nearly every front. From the moment he is crowned, this emperor makes clear he will be different from his predecessors, for instance forgoing his uncle's regnal name of Ferdinand and instead keeping his own. He immediately embarks on a sweeping plan to start truly modernizing his capital, and targets as his first goal the destruction of the now-obsolete city walls. After the vorstädte were annexed to the city proper after a few years previously, the walls still represent a divide between the city center and its periphery, and hinder the process of incorporating these areas into the city's existing structure. His plan calls for wide and imposing boulevards to ring the inner city in place of walls, and for a church to be built in honor of his brother at the site of his assassination, to acknowledge his time as ruler and his contribution to the preservation of the empire.

Other immediate actions include attempting to convince angry hard-liners and imperialists that Hungary should be punished even further for its potential role in inspiring or motivating the assassin. Maximilian is wary of antagonizing both sides, and tries to maintain a neutral ground by ordering a full investigation of Libényi's life and posessions, but deferring any other decisions until the inquiry is completed. Though authorities, wary of encouraging other potential radicals or inciting wider dissent, try to tamp down on coverage of the investigation in the newspapers, word of mouth is impossible to control and soon every outlandish rumor that could be imagined circulates through the daily gossip of Vienna.

In reality, a search of the man's possessions yields little of interest except for one quite shocking discovery. A hidden cache of letters and missives reveals Libényi was a member of a correspondence circle of sorts, apparently among radical Hungarian nationalists. Closer examination of the content reveals vague but nevertheless concerning references to some kind of secret Russian-Hungarian pact proposed in the waning months of the war there. [1] Libényi had apparently been part of communications reaching close to the leaders of the revolution who now reside abroad and outside Austria's reach.

When this information is quietly brought to the emperor, he has no choice but to order that the investigation continue, though he personally harbors doubts that any such conspiratorial network or plot truly ever existed. He believes Libényi was crazed and invented the idea himself, before deciding to kill the emperor in his madness. Of course, the emperor is aware of the accusations that Russian troops helped Hungarian leaders escape the country before the arrival of the Austrian army, but a secret pact between the two would suggest something far more organized and antagonistic, and for Maximilian far outside the realm of possibility. Thus, on the surface, no mention of the potential revelation is made outside the most privy councils of the emperor until evidence can be gathered, and no diplomatic action is undertaken.

Regardless of what might emerge from the inquiry, Maximilian also knows he must find a way to offer meaningful reform to his empire's many peoples, and embroiling the nation in a brouhaha with the tsar that could yet again lead to agitation would be nothing short of foolish. In fact, he considers removing the military governors from Hungary altogether, and restoring some, if not all, of the constitutional protections to its people. He also wishes to deflect some negative attention on the Austrian army but pushing for greater dedication to the navy, a personal area of interest for the emperor.

In both cases, but especially the former, he finds himself at odds with his Interior Minister von Bach, who he quickly learns is the most powerful man in the country who is not a member of the royal family. Bach's reactionary conservatism is exactly the type of philosophy Maximilian fears will tear his slumping empire apart once and for all. Bach adamantly opposes ceding any power to civilian authorities in Hungary at such a critical time when there is so much mutual suspicion between the government and the Hungarian people. And indeed, the emperor argues that clemency is exactly what is needed for many of the anti-Austrian sentiments in Hungary to be buried so that a more effective relationship, if not an equal one, can be reached.

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[1] Perhaps I'm going out too much on a limb here, but the idea is that Kossuth made mention of his proposal to the tsar about installing another ruler on the throne of Hungary to individuals in his government, who then hinted at the idea in later correspondence with interested nationalists outside the country like Libényi. These hints do not outright specify what Kossuth's plan was or how it might look had it actually succeeded, but to the Austrian authorities even the mention of the possibility of cooperation between Russians and Hungarians is seen as provocative, especially due to the (ongoing) strained relationship between Austrian and Russia over the handling of the endgame of the war and the apparent lack of will to capture and/or hold Hungarian leaders to be given over to the Austrian authorities.
 
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So this is the build up to the 'Crimean War'.

This can only be bad for Russia since it's army at this time was arguably the worst in Russian history.

Even with a weakened Austria, an alliance of Britain, France, Austria and various minors should just walk over Russia in this war.

Especially since in OTL Sweden offered to join the Crimean War if the allies would have gotten another great power to join the conflict on their side.

Prussia in OTL also offered to follow the Austrian lead and would have declared war if Austria would have done so, but this probably wouldn't happen here, because of the animositiy between the two ITTL.
 
Author's Note: more buildup, more mess. Is anyone gonna be friends by the time this little war gets going?

April 1853

After a brief period of "minority rule" by the Conservative Party, a coalition of Whigs and Peelites had regained control of Parliament in the waning days of 1852. Their victory resulted in the reinstatement of popular but controversial Lord Palmerston to the position of foreign secretary. [1] Palmerston felt that the political capital he gained in returning to his old position was enough to continue his rather self-directed policies of previous years, and he began his new tenure by sending ships of the Royal Navy to blockade the port of Athens, Greece, in response to the plight of one Don Pacifico.

Don Pacifico had been attacked by an antisemitic mob during his time serving as Portuguese consul to Greece back in 1847, and had been unsuccessful in lobbying the Greek king and his goverment for just recompense. Because Pacifico had been born in Gibraltar, a British possession, he was entitled to bring his case to court in London and eventually decided to do so. Though the court's decision had come down relatively quickly, the diplomacy of the affair had dragged on and little had been done to make good on the amount owed to Pacifico by the Greek government, according to a British court. Thus Palmerston had felt that more coercive action was needed.

Unfortunately for him, the bold action had far-reaching consequences and had more or less backfired politically. As Greece was an independent nation but under joint Russian, French, and British protection, the French and Russian diplomatic response to the blockade was quite cold. In fact, so convinced the British government no longer respected his rule, Louis-Napoleon had recalled his ambassador from London, increasing the damage done to Anglo-French relations. Russia, concerned that the Royal Navy was acting so near to its own naval base in the Black Sea, had increased its naval presence in direct opposition to the Ottomans, who in turn had become greatly worried. Though British support for Ottoman sovereignty was well-known, increasing evidence of interference in domestic affairs like the Bosnian revolt colored Ottoman officials with a deeper suspicion of all the fellow Powers, and the sultan offered to put his own navy on the case if it would mean the withdrawal of the British and the backing down of the Russians. With the blockade successful in finally coercing the Greeks to pay Pacifico and Palmerston facing outcry at home, the ships were withdrawn in due time and an uneasy peace had resumed.

Already once before having been officially disciplined for passing a positive diplomatic note to Louis-Napoleon after his coup against the wishes of the queen, this far more aggressive action had been nothing short of a scandal among British elites. Royal condemnation had quickly been joined by parliamentary, to which Palmerston had responded with a fiery speech in defense of his entire programme of affairs since the outbreak of revolutions, later to be known as "Civis Romanus sum." His gusto had earned him unprecedented support with the British public, but such was not the case in Parliament and Palmerston, ever the consummate politician, had resigned in the wake of an official dismissal.

Thus by early 1853 the "Palmerston Affair," as it came to be known, opens the door for a Palmerston rival, Lord John Russell, to the Foreign Secretary appointment. Lord Aberdeen, the Peelite leader and new prime minister, instructs his man to back off from any provocations and toe a careful line in regards to British diplomacy, as the Palmerston business had done nothing but make the situation more tense among the Powers.

Such strain is especially noticeable when developments in the Ottoman Empire inject a further catalyst for conflagration in the diplomatic sphere. Ever since Louis-Napoleon had sent troops to block the pope from re-entering Rome, he had found himself strongly opposed by French Catholics. The eventual resolution of the situation had done a little to improve his standing, but Catholics by and large still had not supported the coup, and Louis-Napoleon found their lack of support for him a mark against his personal power. In the weakening Ottoman state the emperor seeks an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.

By a decades-old treaty, authority over Christian holy places in Palestine had been ceded by the Ottomans to Russia as the chief body of the Eastern Orthodox faith, because the Christians in Ottoman lands were overwhelmingly Orthodox rather than Catholic. Nevertheless, Louis-Napoleon demands the treaty be put aside and a new one written, recognizing French authority to all Christian holy sites. In doing so the emperor can add to his personal prestige, solicit more support from French Catholics, and take a step towards his vision of transforming the nation into a true empire. And, of course, it is also a nice way to size up Russia, whose tsar had been extremely unsupportive of Louis-Napoleon since the coup and who continues to be the subject of much ire from the influential political club of the Polish émigré Czartoryski.

Sultan Abdülmecid proves to be exceptionally indecisive on the issue, first telling one side he supports their claim then hearing the other side protest and reversing his decision. Again, suspicion and whispers of partitioning Ottoman lands among the powers make the sultan even less inclined to ardently support one side or the other. This waffling infuriates both leaders, who then take a page from Palmerston's book and threaten coercion to attempt to sway the sultan once and for all. The Russians threaten to re-occupy the Danubian principalities if they do not receive a protectorate over all Orthodox Christians living within the empire, while the French promise naval action in the Black Sea as retaliation for the sultan reneging on his new treaty. With the wolves circling all around, the sultan reaches out to the British to mediate the dispute and avert conflict, which to them is seen as quite an unsavory task. After all, the relationship between the powers is strained to a point not seen since the wars of the turn of the century, and no one seems particularly willing to align their interests together.

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[1] iOTL Palmerston resigned in 1850 over the Don Pacifico Affair, and was named Home Secretary in the 1852/3 cabinet as a consolation prize. What's that? I never mentioned the Don Pacifico Affair? Well that's right, keep reading...
 
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Author's Note: Well, no one is shouting that I've screwed up so I'll take that as a good sign and move right along...
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May-July 1853

Russian threats against the Porte have come mainly from Prince Menshikov, a Finnish-Russian aristocrat whom Tsar Nicholas I appointed in February to make it quite clear to the sultan the Russian position on this matter would not sway. Menshikov had reiterated time and again that the tsar was losing patience, and it was only a matter of time before he made good on his promise to end the peaceful missions and simply invade the Empire as a show of force.

All the same time, the British Ambassador Canning, Lord de Redcliffe, had urged the Porte to refuse. Despite the chaos in the British government since the start of the year, Canning remained confident that Britain would continue to support Ottoman sovereignty and territorial integrity if threatened. In this matter his trust is quite truthfully displaced, as the official position is vague and non-committal. Aberdeen, already a cautious man and hesitant to get involved should peace break down, had been made even less inclined to do so by the diplomatic falling-out over the Palmerston Affair.

Indeed, the personality of Aberdeen was something the tsar had been banking on, as Nicholas had met the then Foreign Secretary during a state visit in 1844, and had gotten the same cautious sense of the man that prevailed in his policies. The tsar even writes to Aberdeen and his government explaining the Russian position and promising his goals for the dispute are merely to return to the way things had operated according to the treaty. Russell, much more hawkish than his prime minister, is skeptical, but Aberdeen himself uses this 'platform' of sorts as a thinly-veiled justification for attempting to defuse the situation.

By the time London and Canning begin to get on the same page, however, Russian troops have already entered Moldavia and Wallachia again for the second time in five years and the pressure is mounting on someone to come up with a peaceful solution. The pro-Ottoman faction points to the invasion as a sign of Russian aggression, while Aberdeen rightly contends the tsar made no secret of his plans and is merely following through on the next logical progression in coercive behavior, however aggressively it may be perceived. With no clear declaration of unwavering support, Canning is forced to retract his advice to the sultan as he can no longer guarantee full British support, only participation in multi-party mediation. A conference of the powers is called for May in Vienna to determine a mutually agreeable solution, perhaps a symbolic nod to the congress that had taken place there some 38 years before and shaped the diplomatic landscape of Europe.

From the Austrian point of view, Maximilian is hopeful that a compromise will prevail and no conflict will come from the dispute, as despite his misgivings, he has had no choice but to consider the possibility of Austria mobilizing on either side of a potential conflict. Ignoring all the tension and reticence between Austrian and Russian forces since 1848, it is still indisputable that Russia's actions in Hungary virtually saved the Habsburg monarchy. Even if feelings of obligation towards Russia have long since faded in Vienna, the tsar undoubtedly still expects that Austria will repay his generosity with gratitude and support, and could turn the conflict into a wider war in retaliation for Austrian opposition or even neutrality. On the other hand, being bullied by Nicholas and allowing him to have his way with the Ottomans as well sets a dangerous precedent for the future, and could put Austria at a disadvantage in shaping the post-Ottoman Balkans. As seemingly sacrilegious as such an alliance might sound, a convenient union of Austrian and Ottoman interests in opposing Russia must be considered.

In reality, the compromise agreed upon in Vienna is merely a reiteration of the status quo, in that Russian troops are told to desist from their occupation of the Danubian Principalities, in return for which Russia would receive a nominal protectorate over the Orthodox Christians and churches within the Ottoman Empire. France would come out empty-handed, but as the idea of a French-led Christian protectorate merely seemed to be a dream of Louis-Napoleon's, only the French are dissatisfied with the arrangement. In leaving France out, the Powers greatly underestimate the desire of the French Emperor to expand his prestige and make his mark upon Europe, as he immediately instructs his foreign minister and ambassador to the Porte to begin aggressively lobbying the sultan to ignore the settlement. Such an action would doubtlessly bring armed conflict between the Ottomans and Russia, which would then give France a casus belli and an excuse to fight Russia to determine who should receive the prestige and the protectorate in question.

As the Vienna compromise is enough for Russia to avoid war, humiliate the sultan, and declare a moral victory, the tsar is quite content to signal his agreement. With the onus on the sultan to respond and the probability of peace seemingly high, many (except the French, of course) are shocked when the sultan reneges on the agreement and refuses the compromise, setting the stage for an imminent war. While in France there is little question the Emperor will support the sultan, the matter is much less clear in London and Vienna, and through the summer and into the fall debate rages on between 'war' and 'peace' factions in both governments.
 
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