For the Nation, For the People: 1848 and Beyond

Frankfurt Parliament just shot themselves in the foot fella, remember still a lot of 'germany' are ruled by Princes, Dukes And Kings, so that proposal would make the 'big five'(Prussia,Austria,Bavaria, Hannover and Saxony) to back down and declare the frankfurt as 'anarcist and anti goverment movement' thus killing it any political power, and if not austria and prussia, Prussia control the lionshare of germany and never lossed it till 1945. meaning the Hohenzollern will back down any union now that is not their own creation(Bismarck must be dancing in private under frankurt idiocy)

The same for Austria and they consider their Kingdom Austrian First, german second, Hungarian third, and other not fuck over it.

You killed a lot any chance for a grossdeutchland losung now
 
The Croat army isn't all that much bigger, probably around 4,500 when accounting for losses. I think the key here is that Perczel gambled and lost by pushing so hard; if he's going to make a coherent attack, he needs to regroup. His men are Honvéd volunteers - they're not as inexperienced as Todorović's forces were, but they are certainly not to the level of the Ban's veterans. Even if Perczel mounts a counterattack relatively quickly, there's no guarantee the results will be any different.

So let's say it doesn't pose a serious threat to them. However, it can do way more than just shadowing it. Let them attack the rear guard every two minutes.

Also, what is gonna happen with Russia? After all, they were the ones who subdued the Hungarian rebellion iOTL.
 
Frankfurt Parliament just shot themselves in the foot fella, remember still a lot of 'germany' are ruled by Princes, Dukes And Kings, so that proposal would make the 'big five'(Prussia,Austria,Bavaria, Hannover and Saxony) to back down and declare the frankfurt as 'anarcist and anti goverment movement' thus killing it any political power, and if not austria and prussia, Prussia control the lionshare of germany and never lossed it till 1945. meaning the Hohenzollern will back down any union now that is not their own creation(Bismarck must be dancing in private under frankurt idiocy)

The same for Austria and they consider their Kingdom Austrian First, german second, Hungarian third, and other not fuck over it.

You killed a lot any chance for a grossdeutchland losung now

I think that sort of a denouncement is the logical answer for the Prussian and Austrian governments, at least, for sure, if not those others as well. A more radical Frankfurt parliament is a perhaps a powerless one, but the ideology is stronger, and they will throw themselves at any opportunity over the next few months to support uprisings based in republican sentiments. I'm still trying to reconcile this piece with the more general overwhelming desire for a unified German state - how can I make it plausible that the radicals won't compromise in this regard, thereby sacrificing their dream of a 'Germany' for a German republic?

In regards to the viability of a Großdeutsche Lösung, remember that Austria now faces uprisings in practically all non-German corners of the realm, and so as it stands now it doesn't look so good for Austria. Whether the tide will reverse in 1849 as it did iOTL remains to be seen.

So let's say it doesn't pose a serious threat to them. However, it can do way more than just shadowing it. Let them attack the rear guard every two minutes.

Also, what is gonna happen with Russia? After all, they were the ones who subdued the Hungarian rebellion iOTL.

As I see it, the only purpose of continually attacking would be to wear down his own forces, they're not going to win in a fixed fight anyway. Also think of the effect such a defeat will have on Perczel psychologically; he's not a brilliant commander and by nature, he is thinking "attack, attack, attack," but a big loss like that will make him re-evaluate his strategy. I think once you see the next update it will make more sense.

In terms of Russia, I'm still working out how they're going to fit into this puzzle. Right now, they're more concerned with what's happened in Serbia.
 
In terms of Russia, I'm still working out how they're going to fit into this puzzle. Right now, they're more concerned with what's happened in Serbia.

What is there for Russia to be concerned about (even more than about Hungary itself)? It's not in very good relations with the Constitutionalist oligarchy, but that has been acknowledged and tolerated for years by that point. Do they worry about something related to Knićanin's partial takeover of Vojvodina?
 
What is there for Russia to be concerned about (even more than about Hungary itself)? It's not in very good relations with the Constitutionalist oligarchy, but that has been acknowledged and tolerated for years by that point. Do they worry about something related to Knićanin's partial takeover of Vojvodina?

In essence, yes. Tsar Nicholas is happy to aid and support Serbia so long as it toes the Russian line and allows Russia to project pressure onto the Ottomans. However, a revolutionary Serbia (irredentism might be an appropriate analog here) or at the very least a Serbia that is willing to encroach on Habsburg subjects and territory is going to be a big problem.

The Austrians are much more pragmatic in their approach to nationalist sentiments, to a point. They can tolerate playing the Serbs and the Romanians off the Hungarians, so long as they think they can control the endgame so that at the end of the fight, they'll all still be Austrian subjects. If Serbia proper is going to get involved and start making demands for territory in Vojvodina or some such, that's not going to make Austria very happy. And, as was the case iOTL, when Austria's not happy, Russia's not happy.
 
November/December, 1848 (continued)

In Hungary

As Jelačić approaches Buda and Windisch-Grätz closes in on Komárom, Kossuth realizes that the revolution is in imminent danger. The Austrian army is much larger than Görgei's force and could easily overwhelm it, while the Croatian army approaches a relatively undefended capital. Moving quickly to level the tactical situation, he initiates two ploys that he hopes will give the Hungarians a surprise advantage.

When the Croatian army is spotted moving to occupy Sashegy, a hill just to the south of Buda, he orders a token force to escort the provisional government north to the medieval Hungarian capital of Esztergom, while Kossuth leads the remaining defenders east across the Danube towards Gödöllő. Meanwhile, Görgei had been ordered to dispatch János Móga along with a few hundred men to relieve Perczel from command of his army after his defeat. Móga then can strike Jelačić from behind. The Ban's army controls the high ground, but with troops leaving the capital before him, he suspects taking the city will gain him little. Instead he must now turn to face the enemy that has appeared behind him, now under the command of his rival Móga.

Upriver at Komárom, Görgei meets with the local commander György Klapka to plan the defense of the fortress and Kossuth's second stratagem. The Hungarians are clearly outnumbered by the Austrian force, but using heavy artillery cover from the fortress on the Danube's north bank to assist the bulk of the forces in the city on the south bank might be enough to hold off Windisch-Grätz's army, if they can draw him in to an engagement where they hold such a tactical advantage. To achieve this, small scouting detachments left behind at Bábolna and Ács are to draw Windisch-Grätz's vanguard into skirmishes before retreating and pulling the enemy army with them to the north, where a decisive battle can be fought along the shores of the Danube.

Guyon, who had moved north from Pressburg to stave off an advancing Austrian force out of Moravia under Lieutenant General Balthsar Simunich, engages said army near the town of Nagyszombat on December 16th and emerges victorious, though not decisively. Guyon decides then to pull his forces back to the east, where a Hungarian force under Kálmán Ordódy holds the strategic fortress of Lipótvár. Before they can dig in to anticipate a regrouped Austrian attack, Guyon recieves urgent word to move his forces further east into the mountains.

There, from Kraków via Austrian-controlled Galicia, General Franz Joseph von Schlik had crossed a pass into Hungary with a force of 8,000 men and occupied the town of Eperjes in the far north. A hastily formed volunteer Honvéd unit under General Lázár Mészáros moves north from Miskolc to meet them, but is defeated at Kassa on December 30th. As the calender turns to 1849, decisive engagements in the north and at Komárom will determine the longevity of the Hungarian cause.

In Germany

Loewe's speech seems to sound a death knell for the Frankfurt parliament. The Austrian delegation immediately resigns their posts, to be quickly followed by most of the Prussian delegates. When members of the constitutional committee resign as well, the radicals take charge of its development and soon announce a document known as Grundgesetz des deutschen Volkes, an explanation of basic rights that is to be expanded into a constitution; the previous Reichsverfassung is for the most part abandoned. As the message of the speech spreads like wildfire across the German states, monarchs, princes, and dukes alike denounce it as 'dangerously radical' and 'anti-German'; many are inclined to ban any newspaper that prints Loewe's words or the document.

Orators from the center-right and far-left take up opposing stands on street corners in towns and cities from the North Sea to the Black Forest. The centrists argue that violent revolution as a means of exacting change has clearly failed, and the cause of the people has been corrupted by radicals and anarchists who cannot guarantee a solution to the economic woes through their new system of government. The course of action now, they argue, is to support efforts to tamp down on revolution and stabilize the state, at which time workers can be recompensed for their support through concessions on civil rights as well as more modern economic structures.

The radicals, on the other hand, argue that if anything, the revolutionary year has proven that the people have power when they come together and demand change, and that the aristocracy knows of its own impending collapse and desperately seeks to hold on to power through violence and suppression. Workers especially, as leaders of the revolution, will be able to control their own destiny and create a favorable system once they achieve political power, and a united Germany will itself be made stronger by the rule of the masses in a truly democratic state.

Radical leaders re-examine the actions of Gustav von Struve, who was dismissed from the Frankfurt Vorparlament after demanding a federal republic. He had fled to Baden and now sits in prison after twice attempting to overthrow the government to institute a republic. Once considered a pariah, overnight he is turned into a martyr symbol for the far left's cause, an example of the vanguard of change whom the aristocracy and the rulers so rightly fear.

When Prussian and Austrian troops march into Frankfurt in mid-December to break up the remaining rump parliament, the radical leaders disperse and flee to take up their cause with the people, whom they hope will return to the streets in the new year to demand their rights once more. Some flee to Baden to plot for the freeing of von Struve, others to Stuttgart in Württemburg to continue work on their constitution, and still others to Saxony where many of the democratic delegates had been elected from. And still fighting rages on in Berlin, while new uprisings in Brandenburg and Magdeburg force King Frederick William to commit still more troops to fighting his own citizens.
 
Author's Note: Alas, I had hoped to make this update much more meaty, but the evil flu virus hath conspired against me :mad: My holidays are also coming to an end, and so I cannot guarantee I will be doing daily updates as I had been doing. Nevertheless, the show (or the story) must go on!

The next series of updates will cover approximately January to March, 1849, from the various geographical perspectives that have been introduced thus far.
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Early 1849, Hungary

As the march of Windisch-Grätz's Austrian army approaches the opposing Hungarian force at Komárom, Hungarian armies elsewhere throughout the country start the new year with mixed results. [1]

Ottinger, the general who was to meet an Austrian army at Nagykanisza in the southwest, had pulled well back towards the Serb-Hungarian frontier in Vojvodina when the expected threat never materialized. [2] The Hungarian commander already in that area, János Damjanics, had been forced back to a line just south of the towns of Baja, Szabadka, and Szeged; though an able commander, his forces are thwarted by resilient partisans and a growing influx of fighters both from Serbia and from nearby Slavonia, while also contending with an equally prickly peasantry. The arrival of a more regular Croat force under Todorović from the west is a further complication; Damjanics is now almost certainly outnumbered. Ottinger fords the Danube near Baja only a week or so and 30 kilometers north of Todorović. His arrival is well-timed; Kossuth recalls Damjanics from the region, concerned his Serb heritage is now a hinderance to his effectiveness, despite his unwavering loyalty thus far to the Hungarian cause. Ottinger takes command and prepares to defend Szabadka, where the next Serb offensive is expected.

Damjanics is in fact transferred to command in Transylvania, where the lack of a true commander and strategy for dealing with the rebels has left little Hungarian control in the region. Nascent talks between the Romanians and Hungarians over a ceasefire begin in Cluj bring about a temporary halt to the raids of Iancu's partisans. Rumors swirl that the Hungarians are prepared to offer concessions of special status to Romanians in Transylvania if they will turn their revolutionary fire back across the mountains to the now jointly Russian-Ottoman occupied principalities of Moldovia and Wallachia. Such an action seems unlikely, but it gives Damjanics time to corral the scattered Honvéd forces in the region and consolidate them to his command in Nagyvárad, where he plans to launch an assault on the Saxon-held lands to the north and east. The Saxons are perceived to be the weaker of the two threats, and additionally have not been made expressly aware of the attempts at negotiation in Cluj by either side.[3]

Kossuth rejoins the provisional government at Esztergom as they anxiously await news from Komárom, leaving the defenders of Buda in the hands of newly arrived Henryk Dembinski, a Pole who had spent time abroad after the failure of the Polish Uprising in the 1830's. He is to prepare the next line of Hungarian defense behind the Tisza river, using the town of Szolnok as his base, consolidating any remaining Honvéd units in central Hungary to his overall command. [4]

At Sashegy, Móga attempts to maneuver his forces around the high ground to defend the (now undefended) city below when Jelačić launches an attack. Rain over the past week has made the hill muddy, and the battle degenerates quickly into a chaotic slog through the mud, with both commanders severely hamstrung by poor communication with the front lines. By the end, some 2,000 men are dead; the losses are slightly higher for the Hungarians, but the damage to the Ban's army proves to be much worse. Thrice defeated, far from home, and stuck on a campaign that has seemingly gone nowhere, the Croats implore their leader to negotiate a truce and return home. Jelačić is furious, but his men threaten to mutiny if he refuses; in the end he reluctantly agrees. The Ban meets with Móga and pledges to withdraw his forces from Hungarian territory if granted safe passage, to which Móga agrees. The Ban, whose momentous proclamation had triggered a stirring series of events, now appears to be going home empty-handed.

Further north in upper Hungary, Schlik's army occupies Kassa in early January and, after leaving a detachment in the vicinity, pushes the offensive and the Hungarians all the way south to the upper Tisza, where Mészáros makes a stand at Tokaj. Overconfident Schlik attempts to win away a unit of Württemberg cavalry whom he had once led that had joined up with the Hungarians following the outbreak of hostilities, but his ruse fails and provokes a renewed energy from the Hungarian forces.[5] Schlik is soundly defeated and must retreat north towards Kassa, at the same time calling for reinforcements to regroup and launch a new offensive on Miskolc.

To the west, Guyon's forces had moved at an exceptional pace, inspired (or more likely threatened) by their commander, to Igló in late January. From there, they find the way through the Tatra mountains blocked by a force of Slovak partisans and peasants, who had apparently been aroused by Guyon's breakneck-speed march through the Slovak heartland. These Slovak forces occupy the key Branisko pass through which Guyon can retake Eperjes and Kassa; he implores his men to attack with a promise of double pay if they succeed and the threat of a bullet should they refuse. His tactics seem to pay off, as the decisive February 5th victory secures the pass and allows him to continue on to Eperjes. [6]

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[1] Komárom will be mentioned but not fought. I'm saving it for the next update that will cover Austria.

[2] Nugent's army, if you'll recall, had been diverted from Italy after the ceasefire with Piedmont. New revolts and the Venetian debacle forced Radetzky to recall those forces, and Nugent never quite made it to Hungary.

[3] This kind of thing happened iOTL a bit later (April-May), after the Saxons were basically already subdued and the Hungarians had regained much of Transylvania thanks to Jozef Bem (who iTTL never made it out of Vienna).

[4] Dembinski did indeed burst onto the scene early in 1849 iOTL, first in the northern army then in overall command by the Battle of Kápolna (Feb 26-27). He wasn't a very good commander and was extremely mistrustful of his other generals, which was problematic to say the least.

[5] This happened iOTL, though the Hungarian commander was by this time György Klapka (who is still in Komárom iTTL).

[6] As iOTL.
 
Early 1849

In Austria

Franz Joseph begins to consolidate his hold on Austrian afairs mainly through the machinations of Schwarzenberg, who is becoming increasingly intractable to the demands of liberal elements. The radicalization of the Frankfurt parliament had prompted Schwarzenberg to recall all Austrian delegates, and to denounce the radical constitution as well.

His somewhat surprising ally in the running of state is Interior Minister Franz Stadion, who had previously served as Governor of Galicia. In his tenure there, he had taken steps to abolish serfdom within the province in response to popular demands, cementing his reputation as an enlightened, if not liberal, government official. In contrast to Schwarzenberg, Stadion is more willing to deal with demands for consideration of local and ethnic autonomy, the prevailing issue of Franz Joseph's first months as emperor. Stadion organizes a meeting of government ministers with a delegation of Czech and Slovak leaders to discuss the potential creation of a more autonomous municipality government system for the northern provinces of the empire, while Schwarzenberg focuses his attention on the troubling matter of the south Slavs.

Even Stadion is hesitant to make any promises to the visiting delegations while the government remains wary of Slavs of all kinds thanks to Serbia. The Serbian partisans' takeover of the Vojvodina Serb forces is seen by Austrian officials as simply intolerable. While Austria and indeed Russia are happy to quietly support a semi-independent Serbia within the Ottoman Empire, they will do so only when it benefits their own interests. Serbian aggression into Habsburg land and a unified front for both Serbians and Vojvodina Serbs is seen as a threat to Austrian interests, and could block a future Austrian land grab when the inevitable fall of the Ottoman state leaves a power vacuum. Austrian, Russian, and Ottoman officials alike apply pressure to the Serbian government to back down, which comes quite quickly once the Prince learns his generals have overstepped their welcome.

And then there is the small matter of the Croats, whose leader had so boldly demanded independence from both Austria and Hungary, only to be defeated seemingly at every turn on the battlefield. Austria has no interest in seeing an independent Croatia, especially if she is to be well-positioned to gain land in the Balkans. The government tolerates the Ban and his army and government only while it is convenient for the struggle against Hungary. Schwarzenberg is adament that Franz Joseph should immediately repeal the promises he urged Ferdinand to make before his abdication, once the country has been stabilized and rule of law can be strongly enforced once again.

The Battle of Komárom, January 6-10, 1849

Windisch-Grätz's force of 55,000 reaches the outskirts of Komárom on January 6th, after several days of light skirmishes while approaching the area from the southwest. His ample detachment of cannon are immediately tasked with bombarding the city and its fortress across the Danube. The Hungarians, meanwhile, have nearly 200 cannon of their own between the fortress, the city, and various forward batteries around it, and begin to respond in kind to the Austrian salvoes. One particular battery, placed in a monastery on a slight hill located just west of the town, begins to open fire several hours late and evades notice until such time; whether this delay is a strategic ploy or a mistake is still unknown to this day; nevertheless, it diverts enough Austrian attention from the town for the main Hungarian forces of 12,000 to emerge and engage the forward Austrian troops in the vicinity.

Windisch-Grätz, ever-cautious, does not immediately engage with his main force, instead relying on his forward troops to hold while he organizes an assault on the monastery. When the forward troops are forced to retreat under heavy losses, he delays the attack on the monastery and sends more troops to the center in the late afternoon; this much more organized attack pushes the Hungarians back into Komárom by nightfall. With the center stabilized, the plans for the monastery are drawn up for an attack before dawn.

Meanwhile Görgei, suspecting an Austrian attack there, moves his auxiliary force behind the fortress south across the Danube some 6km west of the battle in the dead of night, who then approach the Austrian left (extended north to the banks of the river near the monastery) from behind. As the sun rises on the second day, fierce fighting is already underway there where the Austrians find themselves suddenly outmaneuvered. Görgei brings his men back out to engage the center once more, as Windisch-Grätz is now forced to commit a great number of forces to overcome the tactical deficit.

The second day is decidedly bloodier than first because of this; Austrian forces on the left, caught between the monastery and the auxiliaries behind them, are cut to pieces. As the meager defenses of the hill are steadily reduced to rubble, the Hungarian artillery there are pulled back across the river to an island in the Danube, while the auxiliary force manages to punch through the enemy line and reach Görgei's right by the day's end. The Austrians pull back slightly to regroup for a new offensive, unable to change the tide of battle to the west of the town.

Because of that, day three begins with a new Austrian offensive to the east along their right flank, where Görgei's second auxiliary force occupies the adjacent village of Szöny. There Windisch-Grätz expects to break through more easily, but in fact his men are in a more direct line of fire from the fortress and a stunning charge personally led by György Klapka places great pressure on the Austrians between their center and right; the offensive collapses and is very nearly cut off, which would have been truly disastrous for Windisch-Grätz's army. As it stands, his attempts at piecemeal flanking assaults without the proper commitment of troops is a direct result of overcautiousness and also his stunningly resounding defeat. The Hungarian defenders are desperately motivated to fight and the brilliant strategy manages to level the battle through tactical means despite being well outnumbered.

Windisch-Grätz's army pulls back 20km to the southwest near Ács to regroup, though his forces are now some 8,000 less. The majority of those losses are casualties, though the Hungarians took over 1,000 Austrians prisoner after the left flank was thrown into disarray on the second day.

Hungarian losses are much lower, between 2,500 and 3,000 men.

In total, it is by far the bloodiest battle of the war.

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Author's Note: See below my extremely rough diagram of the battle described above, and keep in mind all distances, regiment sizes, etc. are not to scale. It is simply to help the reader visualize the narrative.

battle of komarom.png
 
Author's Note: The last full section on Serbia (see post 16) has been amended slightly, following further research on Ilija Garašanin and his Načertanije, or outline, of Serbian foreign policy. The first paragraph here will be exposition that ought to be with that post, but since it is new material I am placing it here for the ease of the reader.
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Early 1849, Serbia and Vojvodina

Garašanin's support for the Vojvodina rebels is only a reflection of his realpolitik mindset and his desire for a shift in Serbian foreign policy. When he learns Knićanin has overreached his mandate and angered Austrian officials, the Interior Minister is one of the first to instruct the king to denounce and recall his general.

Garašanin understands that Serbia's eventual independence cannot be realized as a forced rupture with their allies, Austria and Russia, lest Serbia end up as a European pariah. Furthermore, the Serbian economy is extremely dependent on Austrian trade for survival. War conditions in Hungary have forced trade to be redirected through Ottoman lands, which Garašanin feels is unsustainable. Serbia should look to more favorable relations like Austria and Russia for economic support, and look south into the Ottoman Empire only for territorial aspirations.

He is content to wait as long as it takes for the concert of nations to align correctly so that Serbia's power grab on the international stage can be made. Knićanin's unfortunate actions could very well result in a long-term delay of Serbia's rise, as Austrian and Russian suspicions of Serbian intentions runs at an all-time high, but an unexpected missive from his primary diplomatic envoy, Matija Ban, raises the possibility of a small window now for Serbia to take action.

Ban had remained busy throughout 1848, travelling to Croatia, Dalmatia, Montenegro, and even Vojvodina before the outbreak of hostilities with Hungary. He had carried with him Garašanin's vision of a 'Jugoslav' kingdom, hoping to entice future support for joint military action or even political union. Meeting in Cetinje with Prince-Bishop Petar II Petrović Njegoš of Montenegro, Ban had found an abundance of praise for the Serbian plan. Though, like Serbia, ostensibly supported by Russia, the Prince-Bishop has butted heads with Russian authorities over Ottoman incursions throughout his reign, and the prospect of a closer union with his Serbian brethren would likely be a popular political move.

Ban and the Prince-Bishop had explored the possibility of joint support for a revolt in the Ottoman territories of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which stand between the two nominally independent Serb territories. Indeed, the Prince-Bishop is no stranger to fighting the Ottomans, having just put down an Ottoman invasion from the south and a subsequent rebellion of his chieftains, supported by Ottoman wealth, the previous year. However, he is also a sick man, and as his health deteriorates, he is more likely to acquiesce to giving up his own power. Ban informs Belgrade of the Prince-Bishop's support and his condition late in 1848, before moving on to Croatia for more formal talks with authorities there.

When Ban had first met with the Croatian council governing the realm in Jelačić's absence during the summer, support for the 'Jugoslav' idea was lukewarm at best. The Ban had inspired a wave of Croatian nationalism independent from the ideas of Slavic brotherhood, though Jelačić himself was an ardent supporter of both the Croat and the Serb desires for more independence. Croatian spirits were high, and very little attention was paid to vague notions of political unity.

By the time the Serbian envoy returns in late January, the Croatian mood has changed significantly. Jelačić had been unable to make any headway militarily against the Hungarians, and in fact would be returning to his homeland within a month following his defeat at Sashegy. Todorović had already crossed into Vojvodina and was fighting with Serbs there, something that many Croats would not have expected. Ban finds much more enthusiasm for a more formal collaboration between the Croats and Serbs, and rumors of Jelačić's return home could prompt Croatian support for an uprising in Ottoman Bosnia, if the fighting in Hungary has gone so poorly.

Thus Ban informs Garašanin that Serbia is likely to find support among both the Montegrins and the Croats, and can put into place the first steps of a strategy to liberate the Balkan Slavs. Garašanin is cautiously optimistic; whether or not he can move forward will depend on whether Jelačić can be made to tone down his desire for independence while still working to achieve its goals more quietly. In his view, Austria will only tolerate Croatian adventures in Ottoman territory if they continue to fight in Hungary on behalf of the emperor, and not on behalf of their own independence.

Whether the emperor will let his Balkan possessions fall into the Serbian sphere is an entirely different matter, and where Garašanin must dance on the edge of a sword if he is to avoid complete disaster for the Serbian nation.
 
Early 1849, Germany

The Frankfurt constitution, even in its half-finished form, proves to be a measure of salvation for the radical left and of revolutionary rebirth across Germany. While the center factions had debated endlessly over finding a powerful sponsor, namely Austria or Prussia, to lead their crusade for a united Germany, the radical left offers a much more populist approach and is willing to leave Prussia and Austria by the wayside if the German people will enact change on their own. A united Germany built from the ground up, rather than the top down, is now the legitimate basis for widespread public support and renewed democratic sentiments. In particular, three areas are targeted as most promising for a spontaneous uprising.

In the Kingdom of Bavaria, the detached Rhine province of the Palatinate is a particular hotbed of leftist support. In parliamentary elections on Dec. 7, all 19 seats representing the region had gone to leftist candidates, securing a majority at the assembly under "Followers of Popular Sovereignty and the Unity of Germany." Even before its official opening, the Bavarian assembly had agreed to adopt the Frankfurt constitution and would present it to King Maximillian II. Though open to reform, Maximillian is not about to accept the constitution of a democratic republic, and as such will not approve the parliament's measures. In the face of growing outcry, Maximillian even threatens to shut down the assembly altogether, if delegates will not compromise with their king to see desired, but reachable, reforms.

Even the threat is enough for the left to begin formulating their plan. Many delegates withdraw throughout the month of February, while local political societies and clubs in the Palatinate and also in Franconia organize popular support for the constitution, independence from Bavaria, and an end to the monarchy. Preparations are undertaken for the creation of provisional governments, while rallies for democracy in Kaiserslautern and Würzburg draw crowds of thousands.

Just across the Rhine from the Palatinate in Baden, memories are still very fresh of two failed attempts at creating a republic under Gustav von Struve in the previous year. His recasting as an imprisoned martyr for the democratic cause, however, brings about a fresh wave of popular agitation. A petition is sent to the Grand Duke demanding his immediate release, which is flatly denied. In early March, a mob marches on Struve's prison and helps him to break out, triggering rallies and protests across the country. While Grand Duke Leopold sends for Prussian military support and prepares to flee the near-daily riots against him in the capital Karlsruhe, a second mob marches on the Rhine fortress of Rastatt, setting up a showdown with Badner troops stationed there.

The constitution is also a powerful rallying cry in Saxony, where much of the leftist support in Frankfurt had originated, and where liberal-minded figures like Richard Wagner and Mikhail Bakunin argue passionately in democratic newspapers for the government to accept this new bill of rights. The arrival of fleeing revolutionaries from Prussia provides additional fuel and an influx of support for armed struggle, in the hopes that a new wave will be more successful. In Dresden, King Frederick Augustus II is not inclined to respond positively to the liberals, and is increasingly fed up with his parliament. As the capital begins to turn against him, the King demands the assembly be shut down and the city garrison restore order while troops arrest revolutionary ringleaders.

Upon the break-up of the Frankfurt parliament, radicals had been surprised by a secret offer of support from Württemberg, where they could continue writing the constitution under the tacit support of the Minister of Justice, a liberal reformer named Friedrich von Römer. Ushered into King William's government as a concession to the demands of rioters in March 1848, von Römer assures the king he remains supported by the people for agreeing to shake up the government. All the while, though, von Römer is orchestrating the left faction in Württemberg's parliament to force through a motion on the Frankfurt constitution that will force the king's hand. In Stuttgart the national assembly, like many of its counterparts, demands recognition of the bill of rights and acceptance of democratic government to be outlined in the constitution, to which the king replies a resounding no in an article published in the widely-read Swabian Mercury. The King is now completely mistrustful of Römer and his government, and is prepared to dissolve it. The radicals, who had not necessarily counted on the support of Württembergers in the first wave of 1849 revolutions, now suspect they will be able to influence an uprising there too, to join the imminent actions in nearby Baden and the Palatinate.

In Prussia

When Prussian troops had finally retaken Berlin in late December, damaging much of the working-class neighborhood of the city in the process, the King dealt quick and total retribution to the revolution. While some few individuals manage to escape, mainly south to Saxony, hundreds of Berliners are arrested and the suspected leaders almost immediately executed. King Frederick William is no longer in the mood to negotiate after the loss of his capital, and a previously untapped reservoir of fury and conservatism is awakened within the Prussian king.

The revolts in Brandenburg and Magdeburg quickly disintegrate once the Berliners capitulate, and the king denounces what he calls the "German experiment" of the Frankfurt assembly, and promises that only German governments should discuss the possibility of political union, not her people. A new cadre of conservatives is appointed to head the government and create a Prussian constitution that will ensure the continued power of the noble classes and royal authority, while the Frankfurt constitution is rejected outright. Not wishing to see any further populist sentiments, the all-Prussian assembly is dissolved until 'general authority of the king' is restored, and a state of siege is declared throughout the country so that the army may be used to restore order.

The King also calls up reserves of the Landwehr to ensure the army will have enough troops to pacify the country and provide troops to any German ruler who feels threatened by revolution; this mandates all males under 40 report for military duty, an action usually only undertaken in times of war. Strong backlash to the order, especially in the Rhine Province and Westphalia, catches the Prussian government off-guard; because the region had been relatively quiet throughout 1848, it is assumed the region is absolutely loyal to royal authority.

In reality, those living in the lands separated from Prussia proper by Hannover had been hopeful that the all-Prussia assembly would guarantee political reforms and autonomy that would alleviate their concerns with the government, and thus are equally as incensed when the assembly is dissolved. These regions also possess the most well-defined and numerous working-class population in all of Germany, though the struggle against Prussian authority is shared by all classes, who fear that repression will undo any progress they have made towards receiving political rights.

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Author's note: Comments, anyone? I know there's several different threads working at once here but I hope readers are enjoying the butterflies beginning to create bigger and bigger ripples.
 
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Garašanin is a careful man; he would not attempt a game-changing move without very good reasons to believe in its success. Though a revolt in Herzegovina and Bosnia is almost inevitable at this point, even if Serbia/Montenegro/Croatia do absolutely nothing...

A united Germany with Prussia and Austria left aside? I don't know if that's the end goal but it does suggest some interesting consequences.

That Germany might be more open to pan-German agendas (irredentism on Austria and so on) than the Prussian-led German Empire. OTL's nervous Prussian elites who wouldn't even consider annexing German-populated Austria for fears of increased Catholic influence will be in a radically different place in this scenario.

I like the pace and scope of the TL so far.
 
Garašanin is a careful man; he would not attempt a game-changing move without very good reasons to believe in its success. Though a revolt in Herzegovina and Bosnia is almost inevitable at this point, even if Serbia/Montenegro/Croatia do absolutely nothing...

A united Germany with Prussia and Austria left aside? I don't know if that's the end goal but it does suggest some interesting consequences.

That Germany might be more open to pan-German agendas (irredentism on Austria and so on) than the Prussian-led German Empire. OTL's nervous Prussian elites who wouldn't even consider annexing German-populated Austria for fears of increased Catholic influence will be in a radically different place in this scenario.

I like the pace and scope of the TL so far.

Thank you, and to Unknown as well for your encouragement.

How does everyone feel about the plausibility aspect of things thus far?
 
Thank you, and to Unknown as well for your encouragement.

How does everyone feel about the plausibility aspect of things thus far?

You're pretty detailed in military ascpect and 1848 was so minefield it can go anywhere with the proper butterflies.

All except a german republic is pretty pausable, if 1848-9 failed as OTL, the zollverin will be keep but the german state will be in their own orbit for a long time
 
You're pretty detailed in military ascpect and 1848 was so minefield it can go anywhere with the proper butterflies.

All except a german republic is pretty pausable, if 1848-9 failed as OTL, the zollverin will be keep but the german state will be in their own orbit for a long time

Why do you think a German republic is not plausible? I'm not saying that's necessarily the direction I'm going, I'm just curious.
 
Why do you think a German republic is not plausible? I'm not saying that's necessarily the direction I'm going, I'm just curious.

Nope at that Point, 1848 proved that, prussia and bavaria are pretty powerful and sometimes, the 'german indetity' born very step by step. and again prussia power would avoid to consodlitated.

So far the rest is pausable, hasburg did have a life and death struggle against Hungarian and revolutionaries and barely won it
 
Early 1849, Italy

The continued proliferation of republican sentiments in late 1848 leads to yet another ouster in early 1849; Grand Duke Leopold II of Tuscany flees Florence at the end of January in the face of growing pressure from his radical prime minister Giuseppe Montanelli, which is of course joined by popular sentiment. Montanelli takes interim control while a proper plebiscite can be organized like the one that has taken place in Rome, a shining example of the power of universal man suffrage. Montanelli promises to join his power with that of the provisional Roman government, and asks for Roman assistance in fighting Austria as troops are expected to move into the country via Parma and Modena.

The presence of Austrian troops in Lombardy and Venetia remain the primary concern of a newly elected parliamentary assembly in Piedmont-Sardinia, where liberal republicans who control the chamber insist the Piedmontese-Austrian truce is broken so that Venetian partisans and the Italian hero Mazzini can be reinforced. Even with the truce in place, many expect an Austrian assault on Venice is only a matter of time, and fear of losing the pre-eminent Italian nationalist plays heavily on the minds of all Italian radicals through the winter.

Charles Albert feels compelled by his increasingly belligerent assembly to act while also harboring deep-seated concerns about the effectiveness and loyalty of his commanders, so much so that an exiled Pole, Wojciech Chrzanowski, had been placed in charge upon his arrival to Piedmont in the new year. Chrzanowski is certainly an able commander and begins to reform and redrill the Piedmontese army, though he does not speak Italian or French and has a murky chain of command with the highest Piedmontese officers. The king does not agree with his government that Venetian radicals should be protected from Austrian aggression, but he nevertheless wishes to redeem his honor by defeating Radetzky and driving the Austrians from Italy. On March 1st, driven by personal ambitions and the demands of his people, Charles Albert denounces the truce and prepares to fight anew.

In Rome, an election based truly on popular sovereignty had created an assembly of the people's representatives by early February, despite the pope's decree of mass excommunication. After the political power of the pope is officially abolished and a triumvirate set up to rule the republic, it is decided that Mazzini is to be offered honorary citizenship and a place among the three leaders, along with Romans Aurelio Saffi and Carlo Armellini. While they wait for Mazzini to be informed of their offer, Saffi, Armellini and Antonio Saliceti begin to draft a Roman constitution, to be amended in the future for adoption across Italy. British and French officials continue to be unnervingly silent on the prospects of aid to the newly-formed republic, with France especially unwilling to run afoul of the pope and Britain increasingly reluctant to get involved with any anti-monarchical movements across the continent, despite the protestations of Foreign Minister Lord Palmerston.

In Venice, Manin spends much of the winter continuing to posture politically and ensure his own grasp on power does not slip further into the pro-Mazzini camp, increasingly frustrating the man himself. Garibaldi and Pepe continue to train their partisans and prepare for an Austrian attack, which seems ever closer when the Austrian navy reinstates the blockade in early February, presumably a reaction to events in Tuscany. As March arrives, news arrives that Piedmont-Sardinia will resume its war with Austria while Mazzini is offered his position in Rome, both of which prompt a flurry of activity in the city.

Garibaldi advocates that the Venetians send a force to the west to trap the Austrians between the Piedmontese army and their own partisans, presuming much of the occupying force of Venetia and Lombardy will be shifted to the border once hostilities resume. Mazzini agrees, arguing that Venice must now join the fight on behalf of all Italy rather than just her own interests. Manin, on the other hand, continues to espouse the view that Venice must preserve herself and that wider Italian goals are subordinate to the safety of the Venetian republic. The argument drags on, though Manin's near-dictatorial powers make it virtually impossible for pro-Mazzini members of the assembly to make headway against Manin's faction, and indeed many ordinary Venetians share Manin's outlook that Venice should fight defensively.

When Radetzky is notified of the Piedmontese declaration, he opts for an offensive strategy that he is confident will bring them a quick defeat. Despite the mess in Tuscany, Austrian troops are pulled back from Parma and Modena to fight in Lombardy, where the two armies will be almost evenly matched numerically. Finding the way to Milan blocked by a Piedmontese force, Radetzky instead crosses the Ticino river near Pavia and engages opposing forces in inconclusive battles near towns to the west. Nevertheless Chrzanowski in an abundance of caution retreats to the north near the town of Novara, while the main Piedmontese force remains further south near Alessandria.

While Radetzky's force attacks the nearby town of Vercelli, another corps moves on Novara and is repelled, though Chrzanowski chooses not to pursue. This proves to be a fatal mistake, as Radetzky then commits the entirety of his forces to Novara and emerges decisively victorious; the Austrian army can now bypass the Piedmontese force to the south and move directly on Turin, while Charles Albert is yet again disgraced by the incompetence of his forces.

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Author's Note: nothing super divergent from OTL here; the only thing I would point out is that Mazzini and Garibaldi iOTL are not in Venice to provide any sort of counterbalance to Manin, though I think either way they wouldn't make much headway with the amount of power he managed to accumulate even before they arrived there.
 
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