I've got to say this is the most interesting, moving and plausible ATL I've ever seen where I have reason to fear the Union will not come out of it well at all. I generally avoid and despise "how can the South win?" speculations and have always responded to the suggestion that British intervention for the secessionists is both unlikely and possibly disastrous for Britain.
But this very well nuanced, thoughtful approach to the alliance of Britain with the Confederacy is giving me the shivers.
I remain enough of a Yank patriot and fanboy of Lincoln to still hope the Union comes out of it triumphant, but if it does it will be either because British opinion makes a very unlikely volte face (conceivable only if British military fortunes suffer, on land or sea, a humiliating reversal, only possible if arrogance leads to colossal errors, which I discount as ASB) or because, after many years of terrible punishment, Lincoln still holds on to power and leadership, the Republican cause is steeled in adversity, and the vast potential of the USA (shorn of its southern states, assailed north and south, decimated on the seas and thus with its foreign imports reduced to near nothing, and harried by raids on the East coast and quite possibly losing control of the Pacific coast and vast swathes of the West completely
) is mobilized in record time, leading to an autarkic continental Army that manages to maintain morale, shake out its deadwood pre-war legacy officers, solidify doctrines of modern warfare (more often than not using improvised weaponry since the hypothetical new arsenals will be lagging far behind) and bring the full potential power of the Union to bear on the South, Canada and hold its own along the Atlantic shore.
Such a war probably won't be clearly settled or even with the end in sight come November 1864; how electable will Lincoln be then? Will the elections be rigged, or suspended outright? (OTL of course they weren't).
If the Union can hold out that long, I would then bet it wins, in some sense. Probably losing no territory in the north to Canada (Imperial forces might hold some but agree to move out in the peace settlement), retaking at least some Southern states and very possibly holding out for the complete conquest of the South. Possibly losing territory in the West to the British, although the pitiful capacity of the far western Army and Naval squadrons is offset by the equally dismal logistics of British Columbia. I'd think California is strong enough to repel any British actions or even joint British-Confederate ones--provided it stays loyal; quite a lot of the Anglo population in that state had Secessionist sympathies though.
Furthermore, even if it is battered or has to forgo retaking at least parts of the South, if the Union can hold that long it will be precociously industrialized, with a huge army more modern than any on Earth, an industrial/financial system geared to centralized command and control, and despite being decimated by the RN, a formidable fleet of the most modern types of warship, geared mainly to coastal defense but with the clear potential of building up a world-class global fleet overnight, if they can only get the bases. And this superpowered USA would regard Britain as its traditional and much feared and hated foe. Very possibly Britain would have lost Canada, at least the West of it, early on and would never get it back, possibly exchanging loyal subjects (groaning now under the Yankee boot) for a Southern alliance of dubious moral or economic utility and questionable loyalty as well.
At this time, the only European power strong enough to give the British pause is on their side (Napoleon III's France) but in the coming decades, any power at cross-purposes with Britain will find the Union a ready and strongly distracting ally.
Now all of this is the least bad outcome my patriotic and anti-slavery, pro-Lincoln prejudices want me to hope for.
But the detail work you've done with the salient issues at hand make me doubtful. I remain confident the Union can, with enough bloody-minded perseverance, "win" in this rather dark fashion. But will the nation bear up under the immediate impact of the crisis that is now upon them? Diverted from their war-winning strategy in the South by the need to reinforce the north and to guard the coast and the Union Navy itself which alone can keep the blockade of the secessionists, with their financial credit cut to zero (but that hardly matters if they cannot physically import goods themselves, the blockaders blockaded) and powder supplies running out far faster than they can be anticipated to be replenished under the most rosy scenario, as their plight becomes clear, will the Northerners cave? Will Lincoln be impeached and executed, or even be driven to resign? Will the Republicans lose control, or will Lincoln's own party be craven enough to turn on their resolutions and seek an armistice? Will the regime hold firm enough in the center, but be plagued and bled by a thousand desperate rebellions?
This business of the RN fleet already mobilizing under pre-arranged war plans months before anyone in Lincoln's cabinet suspects the first warlike move is possible is downright Hitchcockian suspense! They think they are ready---they don't know...
I'm rather hoping the British plans go rather poorly, being drawn up in anger and arrogance, ordering action in a bad season as they do...but that's just me clinging to ASB false hope.
On paper and from a century and a half's distance in time, Canada looks to be doomed in the long run. This was before I met your Canadians. I used to assume that the Quebecois could be won over and used to drive a fatal dagger severing West Canada from the Maritimes, but it doesn't seem all that likely the way you've so plausibly characterized their mood. (Nor would gung-ho filibustering Yankees with their anti-Catholic, anti-French prejudices be the best goodwill ambassadors.) Now that I've met some Anglo West Canadians the last thing I want is to see them steamrollered--and it isn't clear to me who would steamroller whom either, at least until Yankee numbers showed up in overwhelming (and devastating, ruinous) force--and those would be numbers not available to deal with the secessionists nor with British expeditionary forces landing in the east coast to distract and dissect the Union machine, such as it is.
If the Yanks can stay in the fight, I fear Canada would be doomed. But the resistance of the Canadians, of both ethnicities, would cast some extra doubt on how persistent the Union can be. And if the Union fails to at least neutralize Canada as a threat, Imperial armies can counterstrike at just about every major industrial, logistic or agricultural center that is more or less protected by geography from seaborne descents on the Atlantic coast.
The Union fleet as it exists is going to be chewed up and sunk. The question is whether the Americans can make a new fleet, modernized to the hilt, armed for bear and determined to turn the tables. And how costly it is to the Admiralty to lose the ships and crews the Yanks manage to take to the bottom with them.
New Orleans may not be going upriver, but neither will the USN be assailing it any time soon. In the interim the South has respite it never had OTL.
If the pace of motion in the South stops, or even merely is slowed to a crawl, the morale of the secessionists will improve--but probably more significantly, the morale of the Southern anti-secessionists, who are very important but typically forgotten, will worsen. The "Confederacy" failed to secure the loyalty and cooperation of a very large segment of the Southern white populace OTL, and of course wrote off the existence of the African population as human beings in its very constitution. The former, seeing a delay and perhaps permanent deflection of the prospect of the real Union government ever coming back, will presumably veer toward the Confederate banner, some going from neutrals to active Southern patriotism, others going from hostility to a grudging neutrality. The slaves have nowhere to go and no hopes but Lincoln's victory, but the longer that is delayed the more despondent they will become, and so the unsung but valuable aid the Southern Africans gave the Union forces will be diminished. Perhaps it will flare up again, and rise to heights beyond OTL, if the Union comes marching south at last, unstoppably. But tough as the Civil War was OTL, it can only be tougher this time around--unless of course the North is dissuaded from coming south at all--which is final disaster for the southern Africans of course.
I love the careful attention to human detail you give; in particular your portrayal of Lincoln fills me with all the more love for him despite the fear he may be doomed.
The fault of the war lies somewhat balanced; American stupidities (including the decades of political bloody shirt waving Seward did, which now come back to haunt him) are part of the cause. Looking at the whole picture, I mainly blame Palmerston's arrogance. But unless, a decade hence, his actions now do lead eventually to a bloody-headed Frankenstein's Monster of a Union rising from the table where he tried to have it autopsied, I can't say he isn't smart to jump on the Union with both feet while the South has them distracted. Nor that he doesn't have causes to react to. Also, I can only respect the position of the Western Canadian anglos; in what I see as the best case they get horribly and tragically massacred; in other cases, their righteous determination to defend their homes leads to generations more of slavocracy in the South and a British Empire committed to perpetuate it.
Subscribed of course!
----
PS--also it's interesting how we are three pages into this, the crisis has snapped and war is inevitable--yet we haven't heard anything at all from a Southern point of view!
Maybe a Civil War timeline where the Confederacy never does take center stage and Southern matters are settled as sidelines in footnotes would be pretty cool.
But this very well nuanced, thoughtful approach to the alliance of Britain with the Confederacy is giving me the shivers.
I remain enough of a Yank patriot and fanboy of Lincoln to still hope the Union comes out of it triumphant, but if it does it will be either because British opinion makes a very unlikely volte face (conceivable only if British military fortunes suffer, on land or sea, a humiliating reversal, only possible if arrogance leads to colossal errors, which I discount as ASB) or because, after many years of terrible punishment, Lincoln still holds on to power and leadership, the Republican cause is steeled in adversity, and the vast potential of the USA (shorn of its southern states, assailed north and south, decimated on the seas and thus with its foreign imports reduced to near nothing, and harried by raids on the East coast and quite possibly losing control of the Pacific coast and vast swathes of the West completely
) is mobilized in record time, leading to an autarkic continental Army that manages to maintain morale, shake out its deadwood pre-war legacy officers, solidify doctrines of modern warfare (more often than not using improvised weaponry since the hypothetical new arsenals will be lagging far behind) and bring the full potential power of the Union to bear on the South, Canada and hold its own along the Atlantic shore.Such a war probably won't be clearly settled or even with the end in sight come November 1864; how electable will Lincoln be then? Will the elections be rigged, or suspended outright? (OTL of course they weren't).
If the Union can hold out that long, I would then bet it wins, in some sense. Probably losing no territory in the north to Canada (Imperial forces might hold some but agree to move out in the peace settlement), retaking at least some Southern states and very possibly holding out for the complete conquest of the South. Possibly losing territory in the West to the British, although the pitiful capacity of the far western Army and Naval squadrons is offset by the equally dismal logistics of British Columbia. I'd think California is strong enough to repel any British actions or even joint British-Confederate ones--provided it stays loyal; quite a lot of the Anglo population in that state had Secessionist sympathies though.
Furthermore, even if it is battered or has to forgo retaking at least parts of the South, if the Union can hold that long it will be precociously industrialized, with a huge army more modern than any on Earth, an industrial/financial system geared to centralized command and control, and despite being decimated by the RN, a formidable fleet of the most modern types of warship, geared mainly to coastal defense but with the clear potential of building up a world-class global fleet overnight, if they can only get the bases. And this superpowered USA would regard Britain as its traditional and much feared and hated foe. Very possibly Britain would have lost Canada, at least the West of it, early on and would never get it back, possibly exchanging loyal subjects (groaning now under the Yankee boot) for a Southern alliance of dubious moral or economic utility and questionable loyalty as well.
At this time, the only European power strong enough to give the British pause is on their side (Napoleon III's France) but in the coming decades, any power at cross-purposes with Britain will find the Union a ready and strongly distracting ally.
Now all of this is the least bad outcome my patriotic and anti-slavery, pro-Lincoln prejudices want me to hope for.
But the detail work you've done with the salient issues at hand make me doubtful. I remain confident the Union can, with enough bloody-minded perseverance, "win" in this rather dark fashion. But will the nation bear up under the immediate impact of the crisis that is now upon them? Diverted from their war-winning strategy in the South by the need to reinforce the north and to guard the coast and the Union Navy itself which alone can keep the blockade of the secessionists, with their financial credit cut to zero (but that hardly matters if they cannot physically import goods themselves, the blockaders blockaded) and powder supplies running out far faster than they can be anticipated to be replenished under the most rosy scenario, as their plight becomes clear, will the Northerners cave? Will Lincoln be impeached and executed, or even be driven to resign? Will the Republicans lose control, or will Lincoln's own party be craven enough to turn on their resolutions and seek an armistice? Will the regime hold firm enough in the center, but be plagued and bled by a thousand desperate rebellions?
This business of the RN fleet already mobilizing under pre-arranged war plans months before anyone in Lincoln's cabinet suspects the first warlike move is possible is downright Hitchcockian suspense!
They think they are ready---they don't know...I'm rather hoping the British plans go rather poorly, being drawn up in anger and arrogance, ordering action in a bad season as they do...but that's just me clinging to ASB false hope.
On paper and from a century and a half's distance in time, Canada looks to be doomed in the long run. This was before I met your Canadians. I used to assume that the Quebecois could be won over and used to drive a fatal dagger severing West Canada from the Maritimes, but it doesn't seem all that likely the way you've so plausibly characterized their mood. (Nor would gung-ho filibustering Yankees with their anti-Catholic, anti-French prejudices be the best goodwill ambassadors.
) Now that I've met some Anglo West Canadians the last thing I want is to see them steamrollered--and it isn't clear to me who would steamroller whom either, at least until Yankee numbers showed up in overwhelming (and devastating, ruinous) force--and those would be numbers not available to deal with the secessionists nor with British expeditionary forces landing in the east coast to distract and dissect the Union machine, such as it is.If the Yanks can stay in the fight, I fear Canada would be doomed. But the resistance of the Canadians, of both ethnicities, would cast some extra doubt on how persistent the Union can be. And if the Union fails to at least neutralize Canada as a threat, Imperial armies can counterstrike at just about every major industrial, logistic or agricultural center that is more or less protected by geography from seaborne descents on the Atlantic coast.
The Union fleet as it exists is going to be chewed up and sunk. The question is whether the Americans can make a new fleet, modernized to the hilt, armed for bear and determined to turn the tables. And how costly it is to the Admiralty to lose the ships and crews the Yanks manage to take to the bottom with them.
New Orleans may not be going upriver, but neither will the USN be assailing it any time soon. In the interim the South has respite it never had OTL.
If the pace of motion in the South stops, or even merely is slowed to a crawl, the morale of the secessionists will improve--but probably more significantly, the morale of the Southern anti-secessionists, who are very important but typically forgotten, will worsen. The "Confederacy" failed to secure the loyalty and cooperation of a very large segment of the Southern white populace OTL, and of course wrote off the existence of the African population as human beings in its very constitution. The former, seeing a delay and perhaps permanent deflection of the prospect of the real Union government ever coming back, will presumably veer toward the Confederate banner, some going from neutrals to active Southern patriotism, others going from hostility to a grudging neutrality. The slaves have nowhere to go and no hopes but Lincoln's victory, but the longer that is delayed the more despondent they will become, and so the unsung but valuable aid the Southern Africans gave the Union forces will be diminished. Perhaps it will flare up again, and rise to heights beyond OTL, if the Union comes marching south at last, unstoppably. But tough as the Civil War was OTL, it can only be tougher this time around--unless of course the North is dissuaded from coming south at all--which is final disaster for the southern Africans of course.
I love the careful attention to human detail you give; in particular your portrayal of Lincoln fills me with all the more love for him despite the fear he may be doomed.
The fault of the war lies somewhat balanced; American stupidities (including the decades of political bloody shirt waving Seward did, which now come back to haunt him) are part of the cause. Looking at the whole picture, I mainly blame Palmerston's arrogance. But unless, a decade hence, his actions now do lead eventually to a bloody-headed Frankenstein's Monster of a Union rising from the table where he tried to have it autopsied, I can't say he isn't smart to jump on the Union with both feet while the South has them distracted. Nor that he doesn't have causes to react to. Also, I can only respect the position of the Western Canadian anglos; in what I see as the best case they get horribly and tragically massacred; in other cases, their righteous determination to defend their homes leads to generations more of slavocracy in the South and a British Empire committed to perpetuate it.
Subscribed of course!
----
PS--also it's interesting how we are three pages into this, the crisis has snapped and war is inevitable--yet we haven't heard anything at all from a Southern point of view!
Maybe a Civil War timeline where the Confederacy never does take center stage and Southern matters are settled as sidelines in footnotes would be pretty cool.
