Do all boys get married? Does only the oldest get married and the rest go to church or are unmarried?
WI: Charles II of Spain Have 4 Children
- Thread starter Math
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no I was simply saying that among the various butterflies created by the continuation of the Habsburg government in Spain, there would also be one that would influence the Otl crisis of the Austrian branch, heavily modifying the development of HRE ( maybe Joseph doesn't die early or the firstborn Otl of Charles VI survives )
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contrary to popular belief, it was only with Friedrich the Great that Prussia became a power to worry about. And that was only because Bavaria was "neutered" after the WotAS for pretty much the rest of the century.
If the Austrian male line go extinct while Spain is still ruled by an Habsburg male line neither the daughters of Joseph I or Charles VI would have any right to the Austrian inheritance (they could get the officially elective crowns of Bohemia and Hungary but not Austria) but Leopold II would have no reason to get his sons to sign the OTL pact
I see, so probably one of Carlos' younger sons would be sent to Austria? He will probably be married to an Austrian princess to also get the Bohemian and Hungarian crowns, right?
To recap, let's say that this wonderful dynasty lineage that @Kellan Sullivan , Make, It's how the scenario develops , What do you @isabella , @Nuraghe , @Kellan Sullivan think can change ITTl?
If we consider that their kids will survive into adulthood and be able to rule,this will have several consequences down the line.
First of all, no war of Spanish Sucession or rather, we're likely to have a war but not one as big as OTL as France would feel cheated out of getting Spain and would go for the throat in getting the Spanish Netherlands and Italy, expect the usual opposition from the surrounding powers(Dutch, the HRE and maybe Britain if James II has been overthrow depending on the time Carlos II dies) and depending on how things go, France will either be partially or fully successfully in their conquests and depending on how it goes, the next generation is likely to continue the intrigues against Spain to further break away at their empire or turn their attention towards the HRE and try and get the left bank of the Rhine.
Another important aspect is the reform aspect, Spain wasn't in a very good position in many areas such as in the economy and it's institutions, say what you want about the Bourbons but well into the late 18th century, they were doing important reforms to the administration and economy in order to both centralize and rationalize the administration as well as gearing the colonies towards making them better controlled by Madrid and making more money. Not saying it would be impossible for the Haspburgs to reform but they're likely to be slower on doing it given they're already the established dynasty where stuff seems like they're still fine as well as still remaining enemies with France means that the men, money and energy they could be using for reforms will be used instead in fighting against them in a time they would be needing money and peace more than ever.
First of all, no war of Spanish Sucession or rather, we're likely to have a war but not one as big as OTL as France would feel cheated out of getting Spain and would go for the throat in getting the Spanish Netherlands and Italy, expect the usual opposition from the surrounding powers(Dutch, the HRE and maybe Britain if James II has been overthrow depending on the time Carlos II dies) and depending on how things go, France will either be partially or fully successfully in their conquests and depending on how it goes, the next generation is likely to continue the intrigues against Spain to further break away at their empire or turn their attention towards the HRE and try and get the left bank of the Rhine.
Another important aspect is the reform aspect, Spain wasn't in a very good position in many areas such as in the economy and it's institutions, say what you want about the Bourbons but well into the late 18th century, they were doing important reforms to the administration and economy in order to both centralize and rationalize the administration as well as gearing the colonies towards making them better controlled by Madrid and making more money. Not saying it would be impossible for the Haspburgs to reform but they're likely to be slower on doing it given they're already the established dynasty where stuff seems like they're still fine as well as still remaining enemies with France means that the men, money and energy they could be using for reforms will be used instead in fighting against them in a time they would be needing money and peace more than ever.
there had been several attempts at reform during Carlos II's reign. The problem with it was usually the reforms were advocated by D. Juan José- which meant that the Queen Regent (and her confessor,) blocked them (with the support of Austria). Juan José was pro-French, but because of the fact that France benefitted from a weaker Spain, Louis XIV never supported him against Mariana. Now...will Louis XIV support his niece's son's attempts at reforms against the Austrian party at court? Depends. Probably internal/minor reforms that can still benefit France by not strengthening Spain "too much". Carlos' son will have to be a prodigy to manage any of this before his grandmother dies in 1696 (when he'd be 16yo at the oldest), but that still leaves nearly 20 years that he'd have to fight against Louis XIV trying to take land from Spain.
I almost want to say- and I suspect this might be borderline ASB at best- but the solution would be to "federalize" the empire while centralizing Spain. itself. Send a brother off to the Low Countries (Felipe IV planned to do this if he had a second son), but remove the raft of restrictions that Madrid generally put in place (usually the restrictions were a confidential letter to the ministers in Brussels to only respect orders from the viceroy which aligned with Madrid's). That way, the brother in the Low Countries would be able to directly respond to the French threat without having to check back with Madrid every time he wanted to put a fire out. It's not an ideal situation, but it would also relieve Madrid of the pressure to constantly have to worry about the Netherlands and France. Of course, Madrid would still keep foreign policy decisions in her own hands, but the Spanish Netherlands would be, for all intents and purposes, an independently functioning entity, rather than some "colony" waiting for Spain to get her house in order
Britain is not going to accept any French supremacy over the whole of their side of the Channel, and, bearing in mind how Marlborough trashed the French and the French military situation IOTL, I would not hold my breath hoping for a French miracle.
agreed, but if James II doesn't get deposed (James Francis Edward is stillborn or born a girl) then I don't see them getting involved. James won't ally with Louis (he distrusted the man as a general rule), but he won't necessary get involved in the matter either. In fact, it's suspected that James not getting involved in the 9YW OTL was one of the chief causes of the Glorious Revolution
Without James Francis Edward, James II was still quite disliked. After all, he had managed to alienate his earliers supporters in just three years. There would still be fears that he would support France in the 9YW, and that was enough for William to launch his bid for the throne. Perhaps without a Catholic heir the crisis would be delayed for some time, but by 1700 James would be gone for some time.
Yeah that is very ASB, especially because such a arrangement just leaves the Netherlands practically alone when the French come in, Spain always needed to keep a large army there and maintain close control specifically because the French were such a constant threat to the region, whereas places like Naples and Milan could afford to be ruled with a less tight hand.
This, James might not like it but the French basically prop up his regime and knows they're the major ace he has in case things go south, so he won't do anything to oppose the French, meaning England is left out of the board while France advances. Even assuming a position where William sits on the throne, it will be much harder for them to try and reverse French gains them to keep them contained in their borders, and assuming the French managed to get the Spanish Netherlands, they have a free hand to deal with the Dutch(who they now share a direct border with) and the states on the left side of the Rhine.
hardly. Louis XIV was one of the staunchest backers of the opposition against James II's regime. In fact, it was Louis' expulsion of the Huguenots that caused dissent against James to rise. Because where did a lot of those Huguenots go? England. And the Huguenots brought with them the horror stories of Catholic, absolutist dragonnades to inflame the English anti-Catholicism to fever pitch
it probably wasn't Louis intention that those Huguenots went to England, but I doubt he was too put out by the fact that James' regime was "unstable".
Even more reason for Louis to support James then. If nothing else, it will get those pesky Huguenots killed and ease a chip in his shoulder
What I meant was that the Huguenots going to England was an unforeseen consequence, not a grand evil scheme.
see, this is where we might differ. Until the Peace of Utrecht, Spain was taking soldiers from their Netherlandish possessions to form regiments in the Spanish army, then dispatching them to serve in Spain/Italy (Walse Brigade/Brigadia de Wallonia that helped Carlos III of Spain capture Naples in the 1730s being just one of them*). Then sending Spanish soldiers to the Netherlands. So the Spanish Netherlands were capable of fielding an army of their own (albeit probably peacetime numbers rather than in the event of a crisis), based on the fact that the Spanish army had something like five or six brigades/regiments filled with Catholic Netherlanders, plus six to eight "Royal Netherlandish" regiments/brigades serving with the Imperial Army.
Given that brigade and regiment are used interchangeably in the period and there's a sort of discrepancy with how many men are in a regiment/brigade (200, 500, 900) depending on the army, paper v actual numbers etc, that's between seven and fourteen thousand men recruited from the Spanish Netherlands. It's not a massive army (I don't know how big the French armies of Louis XIV and Louis XV were), but just the logistics of either marching those men down the Spanish Road to Italy so they can take ship to Spain...or marching them across Germany to go fight in Hungary are no doubt mindboggling. Then having to "import" soldiers from Spain to take their place. Just slashing that expense would likely be a major coup.
*by Carlos III's date, these were mostly second-generation Walloons (whose fathers had been in the Brigadia at Carlos II's death and then remained loyal to Felipe V). There was also the contract of the archbishop of Liège to supply x-amount of soldiers to the king of Spain.
unprincipled peter
Donor
It's my understanding that the Huguenots were forbidden migration from France after 1685 Revocation. The few believed to be in existence (under counted by a LOT) were supposed to convert to Catholicism. Instead, there were a lot of Huguenot, and they migrated illegally, where they caused butterfly effects which included helping the Dutch Republic decide that backing the Glorious Revolution was a good idea.
unprincipled peter
Donor
The 9 Y W is altered in this TTL, and the WoSS is butterflied.
Throughout Carlos II's life, Spain and the world operated under the assumption Carlos II was the end of the line, and a crisis was coming. Here, the viewpoint is that there's a mentally challenged King with a brood of legitimate, reasonably healthy, heirs.
The 9YW may end up similar, though the ending was influenced by the OTL view of CII being on his deathbed. But, it was also enough of a tie/draw that it won't end conclusively.
The projections I'm seeing above, of France and Austria still using the opportunity to nibble away at Spain are off the mark. There is no crisis to take advantage off. The regime change will go smoothly, especially if the healthy eldest is old enough to be active in the crown (close to, or over, reaching the age of majority). There will be other wars, but the caused and scope will be completely different and at an unknown time.
With so much changing, OTL births and deaths across Europe will change also.
Throughout Carlos II's life, Spain and the world operated under the assumption Carlos II was the end of the line, and a crisis was coming. Here, the viewpoint is that there's a mentally challenged King with a brood of legitimate, reasonably healthy, heirs.
The 9YW may end up similar, though the ending was influenced by the OTL view of CII being on his deathbed. But, it was also enough of a tie/draw that it won't end conclusively.
The projections I'm seeing above, of France and Austria still using the opportunity to nibble away at Spain are off the mark. There is no crisis to take advantage off. The regime change will go smoothly, especially if the healthy eldest is old enough to be active in the crown (close to, or over, reaching the age of majority). There will be other wars, but the caused and scope will be completely different and at an unknown time.
With so much changing, OTL births and deaths across Europe will change also.
unprincipled peter
Donor
OTL, Spain saw the loss of Netherlands and Italy as a national humiliation. I don't think the mindset is that Spain needs to channel it's inner Aranda (a century early) and divy up the empire amongst the spare sons.
Reform is a likelihood, but it won't be as sudden, or as extensive as Bourbon Spain. Tis possible that Spain spirals out of control, or that they muddle their way through, or that they get better. Don't know which, but I'd guess muddle or slight improvement.
Reform is a likelihood, but it won't be as sudden, or as extensive as Bourbon Spain. Tis possible that Spain spirals out of control, or that they muddle their way through, or that they get better. Don't know which, but I'd guess muddle or slight improvement.