Canadian/UK relations, Fenians would be involved in this.
Would the Fenians even get the chance to attack Canada?
Canadian/UK relations, Fenians would be involved in this.
Well, what's to stop a brave black Virginian from freeing himself a little bit early? He can run not only north, but also south or west, and no one is going to be returning fugitives these days.
Not a bad idea in theory, but I think it would be viewed as to radical a solution in the TL. Also who exactly would constitute “aristocracy”? If this was done I can imagine it would create even worse bitter and lingering hostility in the South.
The idea is to do a preemptive strike against any attempts by the existing ruling class of the South to use racism as a way of mobilizing the poor white population against any racial or economic reforms the North might consider aside from emancipation itself. Furthermore, it would be a way of shoring up Lincoln's support among his own party while turning the poor whites of the South into a solidly Republican voting bloc to add to the heavily Republican freedmen and Union soldier voting blocs.
"Aristocracy" in this case are the people who had owned major plantations and substantial numbers of slaves pre-war. I don't know what the exact numbers would be, and they'd probably be subject to political discussion ITTL anyway, but a good starting point might be anyone who owned more than 10 slaves and/or 100 acres of land. The pre-war political class in the South will scream bloody murder, but after dragging the South into a war it couldn't possibly win, and without the OTL widespread destruction of Southern cities and infrastructure to hold against the North, they simply don't have any credibility. Oh, and most of them aren't going to be able to vote anyway, unless of course they agree to the above land reform, with perhaps the added carrot that in addition to restored voting rights, those landholders who willingly forfeit their holdings to the government for redistribution will be allowed to keep more of their pre-war non-human property than those whose property has to be seized instead.
It also would fit some of Lincoln's personal leanings on economic philosophy, which were more leftist than you might expect. So as far as he would be concerned, this idea would be morally correct, beneficial to his party's future electoral prospects, a good way of knocking the legs out from under any attempts to claim that all whites were being punished to carry out a policy that only supported blacks, and a way to finish destroying any possibility that the Southern elite who had torn the nation apart could ever try the same thing again.
EDIT: One more thing I just thought of: the expansion (and, presumably, renaming) of the Freedmen's Bureau could also be sold as a reconciliation measure: the ordinary soldiers of the Confederate Army, who weren't the ones responsible for the rebellion, are being repaid for their own wartime sacrifices. This would make an especially welcome (to the US government, at least) picture when set against the rich Southern planters who started the war, paid other men to fight in their place when they weren't just exempted by virtue of owning enough slaves and land, and then did whatever they could to drive the families of soldiers off the land that the soldiers could no longer work while they were fighting for the Confederacy.
Interesting...didn't see the Franco-Austrian alliance coming into being. I wonder if this means Prussia and Russia are going to be close. With maybe a very friendly Britain along for the ride too.
MacGregor, what is the status of Anglo-American relations? I dont recall there being an update on whether or not Trent affair type thing went down, or whether the CSS Alabama was put into play. This could seriously improve the two countries relations.
I have always thought that an Alliance between France and Austria made sense. They are both interested in keeping Germany and Italy from becoming major powers and are both Catholic.
This alliance will definitely bring Prussia and Italy closer together. Russia may decide to join but that will depend on subsequent factors. I agree though that Britain will probably be less than thrilled by the Bonaparte-Hapsburg Axis.
Will be seeing President Lincoln traveling to California before his term is over? Since the Transcontinental RR is completed before he leaves office, he could be the first sitting president to visit the west coast. IIRC Lincoln mentioned that when he left office he wanted to travel to California. Maybe with Mrs. Lincoln's problems he might decide that living in California, where there would not be the amount of folks wanting his attention and open area, would have certain advantages.
One person you may want to take into account is French Empress Eugenie. She was the driving force behind the French intervention in Mexico and was a staunch Catholic conservative. Without the failure of the Mexican Adventure there will be no move to marginalize her influence over French foreign policy. In fact Napoleon III will probably be more likely to listen her in the future if only to get her to shut up and make up for the fact that he didn't listen to her regarding Mexico. This means a more anti-Italian/pro-Pope foreign policy, and as has already been said makes sense of a Franco-Austrian alliance. While Maximilian did not care for his older brother, his assassination may blunt some of Max's liberal leanings.
Prussia and Italy of course are a perfect partnership; both want to humble Austria and reduce French influence and have few if any conflicts of interests.
Russia and Austria could go either way. Russia assisted Austria in the revolutions of 1848 but they both covet control of the Balkans. Russia was angered by Austria's stance during the Crimean War, but as Austria did not actually declare war that damage can be repaired. It may be possible for Austria and Russia to come to terms if a solution favorable to both nations can be reached...even better if its brokered by the French.
Britain is weary of France (being her perennial enemy) since the war scare of 1858. Britain also sees Russia as a serious rival especially in Asia. In fact in 1860 there was an incident at Tsushima where British warships chased off a Russian ship that was trying to assert control over the island. Russia didn't want war so soon after Crimea but illustrates that Russia and Britain will not being seeing eye-to-eye for a long while. Also, once the Suez Canal is finished, Britain will want control of it to the anger of France.
So to summarize: Franco-Austrian alliance, Prusso-Italian alliance, Russia could go either way just as long as its opposed to Britain and vice-versa. If Austria and Russia ally then the Ottoman Empire is probably screwed. Denmark will almost certainly lose land to Prussia regardless, especially if Britain is friendly with Prussia. If this can be done without a war then Denmark will be better off than OTL.
Benjamin
Thanks for the excellent comments. However, couldn't Russia and the UK be alied as in OTL WWI?
Well, IIRC, the major fixture of British policy at this time IOTL was the containment of Russia, which only shifted with the ascent of Germany as the more immediate threat to "balance" on the continent. While theoretically they could be drawn in on the same side, it's kind of a tough sell for the British policymakers, although as Shadow Knight points out, they both have reason/history to support Prussia in the conflict. If they do end up fighting on the same side, expect some serious jockeying over interests in the postwar.Thanks for the excellent comments. However, couldn't Russia and the UK be alied as in OTL WWI?
Thanks for the excellent comments. However, couldn't Russia and the UK be alied as in OTL WWI?
MacGregor, what is the status of Anglo-American relations? I dont recall there being an update on whether or not Trent affair type thing went down, or whether the CSS Alabama was put into play. This could seriously improve the two countries relations.
Will be seeing President Lincoln traveling to California before his term is over? Since the Transcontinental RR is completed before he leaves office, he could be the first sitting president to visit the west coast. IIRC Lincoln mentioned that when he left office he wanted to travel to California. Maybe with Mrs. Lincoln's problems he might decide that living in California, where there would not be the amount of folks wanting his attention and open area, would have certain advantages.
Also would Longstreet or some of the other Confederate general be rejoining the army? Might be a way of reconciliation.
jlckansas