The Ride Never Stops - the Eastern Mediterranean aflame
The Avar Khagans had, within a few generations, created an expansive state. From central Pannonia their raiders ranged across the Danube basin and into Italy. The Avar warriors formed a martial aristocracy maintained by labor of Slavic and Germanic client tribes - and increasingly co-opted Roman estates. Material evidence suggests a culture which had much in common with those of Iranic peoples such as the Sahu, but also incorporated many Turkic, Slavic, and Roman elements. Documents found from the era indicate the Avar venerated many Turkic deities, chief among them Tengri.
The Avar in many ways were becoming victims of their own successes. Victory after victory had brought them a sprawling empire, but much of it was unsuitable to their nomadic raiding lifestyle. Accommodating the Slavic and Germanic tribal aristocracy into their own armies provided additional manpower, but the system was fragile. Their conquests in northern Italy and Illyria had brought vast populations loosely under their control, and this uneasy state of affairs was complicated by the migration of Slavic tribes such as the Abodrites and Sagudati into the Po Valley, and the settling of the Hrvati and Smolyani in Dalmatia. Much like their Roman rivals, the Avar were forced to make accommodations with the far more numerous by internally divided Slavs, but because of the lack of cohesion amongst the multitude of tribes, the Avars were able to more often than not control these migrations.
The Bulgars faced similar concerns, but were more able to handle them. Khagan Sulabi ruled a vast, territory whose original inhabitants were largely replaced with Slavs. Further, the longer history of cooperation between the Bulgars and their subject peoples allowed cultural synthesis to begin. Perun and Tangra/Tengri grew to be seen as two sides of a similar coin, and this religious fusion would be promoted by the ruling elite. The Roman-style bureaucracy and monumental architecture that would characterize the later Bulgarian Empire were still in their infancy, but both had their origins in this time. Like the early Eftal, adopting the customs and techniques of settled peoples allowed an enduring society to develop. Gradual linguistic shifts had also begun to homogenize the Slavic dialects into a single language which made use of extensive Hunnic and Greek loanwords. In time this language would also become the language of the elite.
Unlike the Avars, the Bulgars were not overstretched. The occasional raid southwards from tribes at the periphery of the Xasar-Sahu proved the primary concern, and these were also not an existential threat to what was overall a stable society. The Avar could by and large be bought off with ease, and the Romans under Constantine were wary of provoking their neighbor to the north - with good reason. Further, Constantine's ambitions, after his conquest of the ruin that was Greece, had shifted to internal reform (desperately need) and finally, by 620, to the relatively more valuable Southeast.
Within Syavush's regime, Egypt remained a thorn in his side. While rebellion within Egypt proper was generally difficult, owing to the lack of viable places for rebels retreat into, the country was still vast and prone to riots. In 627, Syavush was baptized into the Monophysite faith at the urging of the aging Narsai ben Apram, who himself received a deathbed baptism into the faith. While this was disappointing to the Nestorians among the Eftal and Arab armies, and worrying to the Jewish population (who had enjoyed undreamt of privileges under the Eftal, who delighted in playing the local populations against each other) it seems to have been almost entirely a political move. Apart from a few close converts, few other Eftal converted, and Syavush paid at mostly lip-service to the new religion.
What conversion did bring him, however, was the cooperation of the Egyptian Church. The incidence of rioting dropped dramatically, and the Church very quickly began to see the Eftal not merely as pagan invaders but rather as a people who might be amenable to mass conversion. They would be somewhat disappointed when their victory at converting the Shah did not immediately result in a groundswell of support for Monophysitism amongst the ruling elite.
Meanwhile, Constantine prepared for an invasion of the western Eftal. The Romans had been whipped into a frenzy over the pagans and heretics that occupied Jerusalem, and their army was renewed, battle-tested in Greece, and augmented by a large force of Alan mercenaries - swift horsemen intended to blunt the traditional Eftal superiority in cavalry. Unlike in previous campaigns, there also came the promise of plunder - Emesa was said to be a city of incredible (stolen) wealth, and Constantine swore not to rest until Jerusalem, much farther south, was taken.
In the spring of 630, the invasion began, crossing through Cilicia almost uncontested. The Eftal harassed the baggage in Flat Cilicia, slowing its advance and allowing the Eftal to gather a large army, under the command of Koshnavash, Syavush's childhood friend. The Shah himself spent critical weeks raising additional troops from among the Egyptians and Arabs before marching north.
Koshnavash however, was reckless, and sought to interdict the Romans before they crossed the Syrian Gates. His motivations were unclear. The Romans decisively outnumbered his force, and ultimately cooler heads prevailed. The abortive Battle of the Syrian Gates had few casualties except among the Roman vanguard, but Eftal morale plummeted and the myth of their invincibility, built up by Heshana's long history of victories, was shattered.
Syavush, on his arrival, was furious. He had nearly doubled the size of the forces available to him, and critically he had brought a large infantry contingent, evening the odds. Meanwhile, Constantine swept south, besieging Antioch. Antioch was a largely depopulated city, a shell of its former glory, but it would make an excellent base of operations. However, Constantine's initial attacks proved futile to say the least - the garrison, bolstered by a contingent of zealous Jewish soldiers who had been dispatched just in time, refused to surrender.
For several months, Syavush would shadow the siege, endeavoring to cut the enemy's supply lines with vicious raids and deny them forage. The Alans and other Roman auxiliaries fought several small skirmishes but came off worse, and Constantine, becoming desperate, attempted to offer pitched battle. When Syavush failed to take the bait, he redoubled his efforts to gain entry to the city, and in late August as rationing became severe he finally achieved his goal at the cost of very heavy casualties, only to find himself now trapped in a city without adequate food reserves. The men were quickly reduced to eating their own horses, and starvation was not far off.
The Eftal bided their time, and when they attacked the walls themselves, it was with waves of Egyptian troops. They wore down the Romans, until, in an act of savage desperation, Constantine sallied out at dawn, personally leading the heaviest Roman cavalry. The act caught the Eftal off-guard, and the desperate Romans fought their way through to the Eftal camp, which they plundered greedily for provisions.
Constantine hugged the coast as he advanced southward, denying the Eftal another chance to cut off his lines of supply - the Roman navy had easily brushed aside the small Eftal fleet, and now provisioned their countrymen with ease. He avoided the temptation to strike into Osrhoene, where the Eftal were numerous and well-prepared, and instead marched south, finding loyalists and coreligionists willing oftentimes to yield cities without a fight. Another battle was fought near the coastal city of Laodikeia, and here the Eftal failed again, but both sides were exhausted. The same year, Hujr ibn Wa'il died, and with his death, the outlook seemed even more grim. Constantine settled in to Laodikeia to await reinforcements, and the Eftal retreated to Emesa to lick their wounds.
Syavush's court was suffering a great crisis of confidence. His companions, who he trusted above all others, spoke freely. They told him that his failure lay in his refusal to venerate the more martial Eftal Gods. The God of Christ and the Jews was one among many, and awarding him even the pretense of exclusivity was a foolish mistake. The Egyptians made unreliable soldiers, and the Jews were too few in number. The entire Egyptian venture was a mistake - it had overstretched them. Finally, when they saw their Shah slip into a depression, Koshnavash advocated petitioning the Shah of Shahs for assistance. Shahriyar would come - technically was not Syavush his tributary?
A deal was struck. The ambitious Shah of the eastern Eftal was advised by Mihiradata to radically alter the terms of their treaty, increasing the tribute immensely. But in secret he had little interest in maintaining the treaty at all. Syavush was a legacy of an era when the Eftal were divided, and thus personally distasteful to a man who saw himself as the sole ruler of all the Eftal.
In 631, the commander-and-chief of the Eastern Eftal armies, Artavazda, lead a force some eighty thousand strong through Syria. He retook Antioch with ease, his veteran troops overrunning a small garrison before reinforcements could arrive. Artavazda sent a small but elite contingent north under Mihiradata, retaking Cilicia and striking out into Anatolia towards Ikonion while the main body of his army descended on Laodikeia, where Constantine made the bold decision to press on. His troops were hardened by a year of suffering and starvation, and though he was heavily outnumbered, even his reinforcements were veterans, stripped from garrisons in Greece.
Artavazda met up with Syavush near Apameia, and the two men took an instant dislike to each other. Mihiradata, an elder and more conciliatory figure, was in the north, raiding an Anatolia which had only just begun to recover from the brutality of the previous century. Artavazda had little regard for Syavush, feeling it necessary that he be placed in overall command, and Syavush refused to give way on account of his rank. The battle of personalities ensured relatively little would be done until Constantine began to march inland towards Emesa.
When news reached Artavazda, he ordered his forces to sweep west and intercept the Roman army. Syavush stubbornly refused to go along, arguing that a defense of the rugged terrain around Emesa was a better tactical decision. And yet, In some anonymous valley lost to history, a numerically superior Eftal force put the Roman army to rout. Constantine himself barely escaped with his life.
This battle, historically, has been considered something of a paradox, and has often been considered a tale inflated by Eftal propaganda. Contemporary Romans seem to have regarded it as a minor setback. Despite the initial rout, the elite core of Constantine's army remained intact and retreated in good order back to Laodikeia, where it was then shipped back to Asia Minor. On his return, the Emperor found that a usurper, a general named Nikephoros, had proclaimed himself Emperor and taken Constantinople, mistakenly thinking Constantine to have died in battle against the Eftal. Despite the imminent threat of Mihiradata's forces in Asia, the Emperor was forced to fight for his throne.
This circumstance has more to do with the increasing illegitimacy of the Roman Emperors than anything else. From the reign of Kallinikos onwards, no Emperor in Constantinople had lived a peaceful life, and most had to seize power with some mixture of force and bribes. Those who did not were nevertheless suspicious of the military beneath them - in these turbulent times it was Generals with provincial armies who posed the greatest threat. The trends of the Late Western Empire in many ways repeated themselves, with the critical exception that Emperors were expected to be first and foremost military leaders, and thus the candidates for their successors themselves had to have equivalent military credentials or risk being viewed as weak.
The Eftal failed to capitalize overmuch on their victory. Artavazda celebrated his victory with a triumphal ceremony organized in Emesa, but behind the scenes tensions were at a fever pitch. Artavazda was forced to consider Shahriyar's true instructions - to overthrow Syavush's monarchy and reorganize it along the lines of the rest of the Empire. Many of the Eftal in Osrhoene and Syria would even be amenable to such a change after Syavush's poor performance in battle, and during the festivities would be the ideal time to engineer such a covert betrayal.
At the same time, there were many risks. Currently, the Roman Empire lay wide open. Artavazda believed he could but reach out and seize Anatolia away. The Romans were crippled and in chaos, their momentary resurgence seemingly nipped in the bud - but they could recover - their state was nothing if not resilient. He might never get such a chance again... to be the conqueror of the Roman Empire. And yet if he waited, Syavush, who was clever and adept at the game of politics, might well improve his position and prove impossible to dislodge.
In 631, sitting in the golden palace of Emesa, sipping Syrian wine, Artavazda had to make a decision which would change history.
[If you believe in some sort of "great man" theory of history, that is. But this makes a sort of PoD within the broader story. I imagine if Alt-History develops in this timeline, loads of people will wonder what might have happened if he makes the opposite choice.
Also, I don't really buy that particular theory about Islam, fi11222. That said, it seems plausible that something like what you described might happen here. Maybe.
Next post will cover Arabian developments and probably answer the cliffhanger I've left.
Also, Count Peter, not to spoil anything, but I rather agree that the endurance of dharmic religions in the Middle East is a cool concept, and one that I intend to explore for a good while yet. But I have no idea if they'll go as far as say, Constantinople. That will take time and a lot more planning than I've currently done.]
Should Syavush get baptized or what ?
