I'm a pretty big latecomer to to this, but I want to comment on this bit of the TL:
2:55 AM – At missile sites in Central Asia, missile erectors raise themselves to an upright position and fire. Similarly, eight concrete missile silos blow their rocket-propelled hatches clear and fire their missiles. In total, 20 of the Soviet Union’s October 1962 total of 26 ICBMs will reach their targets. Two explode either during launch or shortly after. Three break up on reentry, due to manufacturing defects or navigation malfunctions. One will suffer a gyroscope error and will impact in north-central Montana, incinerating the village of Hays, Montana (population 486 in 1962). The other twenty will proceed to their targets, unnoticed for the first ten minutes of a scheduled 33-minute flight time.
http://alternatewars.com/WW3/WW3_Documents/Missiles/Missile_Hearings_16-MAY-1961_Partial.htm
This is a transcription of a congressional meeting in 1961 on Missile Procurement for the USAF. It has lots of formerly redacted stuff, such as reliability in it.
"we are at better than 50 percent right now on the THOR's in the field."
...
"We expect TITAN I to start with about 50 percent flight reliability from launch on, and go up about 70 percent with that version of the weapon system through the first 6 squadrons. The question of whether to come back and modify the first squadron of TITAN I to be as reliable as the last squadron has not yet been decided. TITAN II will start approximately 70-75 percent with the first squadron, and go up to 90 percent."
...
"We have a total of 27 ATLAS operational and 22 are at the moment in commission ready to fire."
...
"We have 60 THOR in place in the United Kingdom, of which 51 are in commission ready to go."
...
"General GERRITY. If I might add, Mr. Weaver, the figures I gave earlier were the actual missiles ready to go on pad. For example, we said that 22 OF THE 27 ATLAS missiles on the pad were ready to go. That is an in-commission rate. 51 OF THE 64 THORS are ready to go. This gives you an approximation of what sort of in-commission rate we can maintain at this time."
At the time, they were using a 50% reliability factor for the ICBMs, and the present test R&D program with 231~ missiles launched had a reliability rate of about 70%.
Essentially, what it means is the early ICBMs of the period would have 80 to 85% actual readiness, that is; being ready to go at the moment the key was turned, and a launched reliability rate ranging from 50% to 70% (60% average).
So your 26 Soviet ICBMs would have only 21 actually ready to launch at a moment, and of those 21 launched, only 14 to 15 would actually successfully execute a launch.
Then there's the unknown unknowns regarding nuclear weapons reliability. The Polaris Warhead had a 50% estimated reliability rate (it actually dudded in a test shot), and adding insult to injury, the Polaris A1 Missile had a terrible reliability (50%); so Polaris isn't exactly the ULTIMATE weapon (yet).