Taking the Cross: A Crusader ATL

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Chapter XI - The Boy King
@Luminous
Funny you should say that about Gauthier... :p :D

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Chapter Eleven
The Boy King


In the same year as Baldwin died, the men sent to Makuria returned with ambassadors from the Kingdom. In the chaotic situation that followed they were still treated with dignity, but it was not until the regency was firmly established that discussions were able to get properly underway. Trade discussions and a proposed alliance were both brought to the table and both sides went away happy that this was the beginning of a bright new future. Although a minor stir was caused when delegations began arriving from the other Christian states their neighboured Makuria, by virtue of their being the closest and the strongest Makuria was extended the warmest treatment. This relationship was further improved in 1186 when Salomo (Solomon to the Latins) arrived personally in the crusader states, having abdicated the throne and travelled north to find out more about the new arrivals in Egypt. He was treated with the privileges due to any western monarch and an alliance was concluded to extend Christian control over Upper Egypt. This would have the advantages of allowing far easier communication and cooperation between the Latins and the Makurians, would cement what promised to be a mutually beneficial alliance, extend Humphrey IV’s domains and eliminate the problems caused by having such an unstable region on the border. The Makurians were especially eager to go ahead with the plan because they had come under increasing pressure from the Moslems who fled south following the Christian conquest of Lower Egypt.

So in 1187 a campaign was launched to conquer the remnants of the Fatimid state in Egypt, with Humphrey IV leading the Latin army, whilst Joscelin and Gauthier remained behind to watch over the Kingdom and the young King. Marching south, Humphrey was successful in extending the Latin territory in that region, whilst the Makurians moved north. Although the problem of supply was somewhat mitigated as the Latin army followed the Nile, the mostly Coptic peasantry were largely hostile to them as until now the majority of the Copts who had gone south to the region were those who opposed the Latins and as such gave a biased view of what to expect. Despite this, the Coptic contingent that marched with the army provided a counter-view and evidence of Copts and Latins working together. Many of the people quickly changed their minds and the Moslems found local support for them diminishing. By 1188 the conquest of Upper Egypt was complete, with the territory split between Makuria and Jerusalem, the expedition being declared a complete success and cause for celebration in both countries. The Makurian King Georgios was eager for Humphrey and his army to proceed further south and aid in the conquest of the Blemmyes, a rival Christian kingdom in the area. Humphrey refused, saying that he could not in good faith attack a Christian nation without just cause and that he had to consolidate his gains. Although Georgios was disappointed, he remained gracious and would pursue his own invasion shortly thereafter. The Moslems in the region were scattered, having already been forced south they now found themselves pushed out once again, forced to either head west into the desert or east into the Blemmyes Kingdom from where many sailed to Mecca, destabilising the Kingdom and allowing Makuria the chance for a relatively easy conquest. Although Humphrey declined to participate in Georgios’ invasion, he did help reinforce Makuria and help secure its borders against the Moslem incursions which had become such a problem. Reports of trouble in Jerusalem reached Humphrey about this time and concerned him enough to make him cut short his stay. When Humphrey finally returned to Lower Egypt in 1189 he was hailed as a conquering hero, allowing for the regency to continue its original form, despite the problems it had faced while he was gone.

Whilst Humphrey had been campaigning in Upper Egypt with the Makurians, the Kingdom of Jerusalem faced a serious threat when Saladin once again invaded in 1188. The northern states had once again been defeated in battle, forcing Gauthier and Raymond IV to call up the army to face this grave threat. By the time they made it north, Edessa and the eastern part of Joscelin’s county had fallen, as well as the north-eastern fringes of Gauthier’s lands. Battle was joined and although the Christians only narrowly escaped defeat, neither side could claim victory. However, the next day the Latins decided to fall back despite the protests of Joscelin and Saladin took the opportunity to run down their retreating army, effectively wiping it out. Gauthier was killed in the battle, his fiefs going to his son, although Raymond and Joscelin managed to escape. Saladin, knowing that the Latins were now severely weakened, sought to capture as much territory as he could before they were able to raise another force. In short order he had taken the remaining western half of the County of Edessa, much of the County of Aleppo (including the city itself) and a portion of the Principality of Damascus. Although he planned to use this opportunity to attempt to drive deep into Outremer, Saladin ultimately offered peace to the Latins as news arrived that Humphrey had returned from his campaign in Upper Egypt and the Saracen army had become much weakened from an outbreak of dysentery outbreak that had been passed to them from the captured Christian cities which had been suffering at the time. The Fatimid remnants in Mecca had also struck into the crusader states during Saladin’s invasion, having been in contact with him, threatening the Kingdom’s southern border before Humphrey returned and defeated them. With the defeat of his allies in the south, a truce was made and Saladin was able to keep the lands he had taken so far. Joscelin was furious that peace had been made despite the loss of Edessa and became cold towards Raymond and Humphrey from then on, focusing his energies on the King, telling him stories of Edessa and how it was his duty as a Christian monarch to reconquer it, and also sending envoys to the Christian monarchs of Europe requesting help in defending the Holy Land and regaining that which had been lost. After the invasion, Raymond and Joscelin lost much of their popularity among the Latins, as they were blamed for the defeat. Humphrey became the most popular noble thanks to his victories in Egypt and in Jerusalem itself, although Godfrey was the most beloved in the Kingdom.

Godfrey was still young at this time, but was acknowledged to be a friendly and energetic boy who won the love of many who met him, although some found his lack of interest for academic matters to be infuriating and became annoyed with his constant activity. During his childhood, the three figures who had the greatest influence over the King were Humphrey (from whom he gained a kind manner), Joscelin (who instilled a sense of duty) and his sister Isabella who he was to remain very close to throughout their lives. When the war with Saladin came to an end, Joscelin, Humphrey and Raymond decided it was high time that Godfrey be found a suitable wife. Joscelin suggested his own daughters, whilst Humphrey and Raymond suggested a Byzantine to renew the old alliance. As the marriage discussions went on, Beatrix the daughter and heiress of the late Gauthier III arrived in Jerusalem arrived in the Holy City. A child herself, Joscelin had been given the regency over her lands by Raymond and Humphrey by way of compensation for the loss of Edessa. Joscelin now changed tack and suggested the girl as fit for the role of Queen, adding that it would incorporate Damascus directly into the royal domains, strengthening the throne and the Kingdom. Humphrey had himself hoped to marry one of his two sons to the girl and opposed the plan, but Raymond was won over by the intervention of William of Aleppo who was friendly to Joscelin as he too had had much of his lands taken from him by Saladin. Humphrey reluctantly agreed to the proposal when Raymond suggested that he be allowed to keep the territories in Upper Egypt he had conquered and that one of his sons marry Joscelin’s eldest daughter and heiress. This led to the betrothal of Godfrey and Beatrix in 1190 when he was 13 and she was 10. This was also the last success of Joscelin’s career as he passed away in the same year. The Ibelins had also tried to be heard on the issue of the King’s marriage, but were blocked from participating by Humphrey and Joscelin, although Raymond did pressure for them to be allowed to marry Ida of Cyprus, widowed heiress to the aged Matthew of Cyprus, into their family, a request which was grant in return for their agreement on the King’s marriage.
 
250px-Hattin.jpg


The destruction of the Latin army and the death of Gauthier, 1188
 
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Well, that is certainly a large reversal of fortunes. Edessa, gone? That's bad. I liked the County of Edessa. It has a good ring to it.

In all seriousness, though, it's not that big of a problem. Egypt is a much bigger prize than Upper Syria. And with Makuria starting to blob and fill out that southern border, and with little more than desert to the west, that is a flank practically secured. It won't take long for the new king to consolidate his land and wait until Mosul is distracted or otherwise besieged.

Constantinople has plenty of problems at this point, trying to reintegrate Anatolia, so I do not know what they could do. Although, Georgia has been quiet. Would the new king be open to starting a two front war? If so, I'm not sure how the K. of Armenia would like having their fellow Armenians under Georgian rule. Or, perhaps, would he enlist the Copts from Egypt to help retake the northeast?

Frankly, I'm just waiting for the Sicilian Normans to take advantage of the situation and take over Cyrenaica or Tripolitania. That is, unless there have been any problems for them. And note to self: make sure to correct the correct century when I'm consulting maps.
 
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I haven't really been keeping up with the rest of the world in the posts I'll admit :eek: The crusader states are my main focus for TTL right now, so I'm only really mentioning stuff when it ties to them. That said, every now and again I'll probably post about things happening in other parts of the world. Just because I haven't said anything about a region doesn't necessarily mean it's been quiet though ;) :p
 
I haven't really been keeping up with the rest of the world in the posts I'll admit :eek: The crusader states are my main focus for TTL right now, so I'm only really mentioning stuff when it ties to them. That said, every now and again I'll probably post about things happening in other parts of the world. Just because I haven't said anything about a region doesn't necessarily mean it's been quiet though ;) :p

Good to know! I imagine it'll be 1200 by the time we hear, but it'll be worth the wait, I'm sure. And knowing Europe, is it ever quiet?
 
Chapter XII - Red Beard and Lionheart
Thanks again to Luminous for his wonderful maps :D The chapter after this one (or maybe the one after that depending how it goes) will probably be a general one showing some the rest of the world (or at least the known world), which I want to get done before the Mongols arrive and all hell breaks loose :p The crusaders have done well surviving this long though, haven't they? But I guess it does help when you can summon huge armies to help you whenever anything goes wrong :D

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Chapter Twelve
Red Beard and Lionheart


The final great event that occurred during the regency was the Third Crusade. Called following the fall of the fall of Edessa and Aleppo, the Kings of France and England as well as the Holy Roman Emperor all took the cross in 1190 and began raising armies for the crusade. The venerable Frederick Barbarossa was the first to set out, at the head of an imperial army some 100,000 strong. Barbarossa took the land route through Byzantium and struck into the territory disputed between the Turks under Saladin and the Byzantines. Devastating the Turkish forces in the area, he swept through the region and into the Levant, reaching the County of Edessa in 1192. Here he was met by Raymond and William of Aleppo at the head of a relatively tiny army, with the King in tow. The boy would reach his age of majority the same year, but was happy to leave the planning of the campaign largely to the other, busying himself with riding, training and spending time with the men. Unfortunately a fever spread throughout the army whilst they were readying for an attack on Edessa, weakening the army and making William ill, forcing him to retire to Antioch where he would pass after a long period of illness. Despite this, the arm continued on and quickly retook the western portion of Edessa, only to be met with another disaster when they came to crossing the Euphrates. As the army was crossing, Saladin attacked and dealt a stinging blow when Germans who had pushed on ahead to be the first ones to cross the river were cut off from the rest of the army, Barbarossa personally encouraging his knights onward across to attempt to save his trapped men. The Saracens were able to cut down the German force which had crossed while holding off Barbarossa who was then subjected to a Moslem counterattack they routed his force which had only partially crossed. As the Germans desperately tried to reach safety on the other side of the river, they died in great numbers as the Moslem archers continuously fired at them, many of the men drowning in their armour. Barbarossa himself had his horse shot out from under him and drowned in the river during the rout. It was a stunning victory for Saladin that left some 23,000 Germans dead at the cost of 4,000 Saracens. Immediately after the battle, the majority of the imperial army turned to go home for the imperial election that would result, much to the outrage of Raymond and Godfrey in particular, who would have a sour view of Germans for much of his life, even stating that he preferred the company of Saracens. Nevertheless, some 8,000 Germans still remained in Outremer, under the command of Barbarossa’s son Frederick of Swabia and they were able to cross the river safely not long after. A second battle was joined as they neared Edessa, which was to be the first battle in which Godfrey took part. Throughout the combat he displayed great valour in mounting numerous charges against the Moslems and rallying his troops when they seemed ready to break, but it was at great risk to his own life. On two occasions during the battle, other contingents of knights had to ride to his aid and prevent him from being cut off from the army and Raymond was said to have personally reprimanded him for his foolhardiness after the battle. Nevertheless, they were able to win a close victory over Saladin who was forced to retreat from the field, allowing them to besiege Edessa.

The French and English crusaders set out in early 1192 to the Holy Land, led respectively by Richard I and Hugh III, Duke of Burgundy, and accompanied by Richard’s wife Alys, the French King’s half-sister. Richard’s own sister, Joan, had been a prisoner in Sicily since 1189 when her husband the King of Sicily died and the new King, Tancred, had her imprisoned and as such the crusaders stopped on the island to deal with Tancred. They demanded the release of Joan and that Tancred give aid to them, either financial or military. Tancred was willing to release Joan, but was unhappy with the amount of money demanded by the crusaders, leading to Richard seizing several towns and fortresses. After this, Tancred agreed to their demands, freeing Joan as well as providing the requested funds for the crusade, using money he had won from his raids into North Africa and from his war against the Holy Roman Empire in Italy. Following the acceptance of their conditions, Richard and Hugh continued on their journey. After a brief stop on Cyprus where they were entertained by the old Matthew of Cyprus, they reached the Holy Land late in the year, proceeding east and linking up with the remains of the imperial army which was besieging Edessa. Saladin had assembled a formidable army since his last battle with the crusaders and had returned to Edessa, besieging them in their own camp. However, the arrival of Richard and Hugh brought fresh supplies and raised morale for the beleaguered troops and they were able to take the city in January 1193. Following the fall of the city, there was a prisoner exchange as the surviving Moslem garrison was swapped for the crusaders captured before Hugh and Richard reached Edessa. It was decided to next take Harran before moving on to Aleppo and the other territories lost. Saladin shadowed the crusaders before attacking them within sight of Harran. Attempts by Saladin to draw away some of the knights were partially successful when a majority of the French cavalry were isolated and cut down before they could be reached. The battle was hard fought and neither side was able to decisively defeat the other, but the casualties sustained by Saladin’s men forced his withdrawal and allow the crusaders to take the city.

The crusaders were now divided over whether to pursue Saladin and attempt to decisively defeat him (which would allow for an easy re-conquest of the lands lost) or to proceed south to Hierapolis and Aleppo and attempt the re-conquest with Saladin still in the field. Richard, Raymond and Frederick argued for the former, whilst Hugh and William supported the latter option. Godfrey was also consulted, as befitting his rank, but for the most part the crusaders paid little heed to his opinion which was to pursue Saladin, although they did give him all due courtesy before eventually deciding to go after Saladin. In this time, Saladin had been unable to reinforce his army as his lands in Anatolia were being overrun by the Byzantines following Barbarossa’s campaign in the area, which had in turn prompted an Armenian uprising, followed by an invasion from the Khwarazmian Empire (fresh from finally conquering the remnants of the Seljuq Empire). Deciding that peace with the crusaders to allow him to deal with these other threats was his best option, he attempted to open negotiations but was rejected. Placing one of his generals at the head of the army and ordering him to hold back the crusaders, Saladin himself returned to his lands in the east with a portion of the troops to raise more men to keep his domains together. The Saracen army, weakened from its last battle and the withdrawal of some of the men alongside Saladin, stood little chance and the resultant crushing victory allowed the crusaders to go on to retake the eastern fringes of the County of Edessa, before marching south to retake Aleppo and the other fortresses and cities that had been lost. By the time they were finished, the crusaders had retaken all the northern territory that had been lost to the Moslems and secured the northern frontier. William of Aleppo did not take part in this final part of the campaign, instead returning to Antioch where his children and wife had been taken ill and eventually died. From then on William took little role in the running of his lands or the politics of the Kingdom, leaving his brother Robert to effectively act as regent in his stead, the deaths of his family leaving him a broken man.

At first glance it seems that Saladin’s abandonment of much of his army was a foolhardy move, but it saved him politically and he was barely able to hold onto his position as it was. The blame for the loss against the crusaders (which had already really been decided in the previous battle as it had so weakened the Moslem force) was placed on the general left in command, leading to his execution upon his return to Mosul. Saladin was then able to raise another army and march east to repel the Khwarazians before dealing with Armenia, putting down the Armenian revolt with great slaughter, leading to a mass migration from the Armenian highlands to Cilican Armenia, some even settling in the County of Edessa. Armenia in turn became home to the many Turks who fled east as the Byzantines extended their control further into the interior of eastern Anatolia, but a significant number of Armenians continued to hold on up in their mountains. Saladin signed peace treaties with the Byzantines and the Latins at this time, as his armies were too weak to recapture the lost territory after being force to fight on four fronts (against the Armenians, crusaders, Byzantines and Khwarazmians), focusing on defending his eastern border as the Khwarazmians were intent on the conquest of all his lands, not just the peripheries. Saladin died in 1195, shortly after reasserting his authority in Armenia. For the Christians, the crusade was once again a great success. Godfrey took the reins of power within the Kingdom, marrying Beatrix in the same year that Saladin passed and bringing Damascus directly into the Kingdom of Jerusalem, whilst the crusaders returned to Western Europe shortly after the conclusion of the crusade, although some did opt to stay in Outremer. Godfrey’s rein had begun with a great victory over the Moslems, but it remained to be seen if it would continue in such a vein.
 
Poor William. That's the worst thing that could have happened to him. :( But with his line dying out, what does that mean for Aleppo? Is it inherited directly by Raymond IV? At this rate, there are only 3 Crusader realms left on the continent. Edessa, Tripoliantiochaleppo, and Jerusalem.

The Armenians never seem to have luck on their side, do they? Well, at least they have a state. I was wondering if we might end up with an Armenia with two large discontiguous sections. But with such a migration, they'll stir up trouble with the Byzantines and the Crusaders. Hopefully it will end up working out alright.
 
Well William's brother is going to inherit Aleppo, but he doesn't have any children so I haven't quite decided what's going to happen once the two of them die. Might see some trouble down the road.

Armenian Cilicia at this time is in a similar stituation to Cyprus, in that it's effectively independent but Byzantium has suzerainty over it. With a big population boost, the Armenians there might decide to make a break for full independence though... The crusaders are allies with the Armenians atm, Raymond especially, but I doubt they'd want a war with Byzantium.
 
Well William's brother is going to inherit Aleppo, but he doesn't have any children so I haven't quite decided what's going to happen once the two of them die. Might see some trouble down the road.

Armenian Cilicia at this time is in a similar stituation to Cyprus, in that it's effectively independent but Byzantium has suzerainty over it. With a big population boost, the Armenians there might decide to make a break for full independence though... The crusaders are allies with the Armenians atm, Raymond especially, but I doubt they'd want a war with Byzantium.

Wouldn't Aleppo go to Raymond IV since Antioch is the direct suzerain of Aleppo. There might be some trouble in the court about handing it back out to another noble, as Raymond might be viewed as gathering too much power, as he already has Tripoli as well. And Tripoli will get the Assassin lands whenever they get around to taking out that little enclave.

War with the Byzantines at this juncture would be horrible, especially after the crusaders strengthened their position. The Armenians could go for it, but I don't think they will right now. The influx is just starting, and they haven't established themselves. I see them pushing up and into Anatolia, taking as much land that is nominally Byzantine as possible as their new homeland. Of course, it depends on the current King of Armenia and whether he is patient enough for that.

Also, how bad are the raids from Arabia getting? I don't see Jerusalem having any naval power on the red sea, so it would be relatively easy for raiders to go from the coast of Egypt to the Sinai and back to western Arabia without anyone bothering them at all. If it gets too bad, would they consider an assault to take at least part of Arabia, in order to make their lands more secure?
 
Wouldn't Aleppo go to Raymond IV since Antioch is the direct suzerain of Aleppo. There might be some trouble in the court about handing it back out to another noble, as Raymond might be viewed as gathering too much power, as he already has Tripoli as well. And Tripoli will get the Assassin lands whenever they get around to taking out that little enclave.

War with the Byzantines at this juncture would be horrible, especially after the crusaders strengthened their position. The Armenians could go for it, but I don't think they will right now. The influx is just starting, and they haven't established themselves. I see them pushing up and into Anatolia, taking as much land that is nominally Byzantine as possible as their new homeland. Of course, it depends on the current King of Armenia and whether he is patient enough for that.

Also, how bad are the raids from Arabia getting? I don't see Jerusalem having any naval power on the red sea, so it would be relatively easy for raiders to go from the coast of Egypt to the Sinai and back to western Arabia without anyone bothering them at all. If it gets too bad, would they consider an assault to take at least part of Arabia, in order to make their lands more secure?

I think that's the problem, the other's wouldn't want Raymond adding to his already considerable territory. I don't know if the assassins are going to be added to the Kingdom for a while, they're viewed by the crusaders as basically undefeatable atm I think.

I haven't quite decided about the King of Armenia yet, it could go either way...

The raids aren't that bad, but Godfrey will probably want to establish control in Sinai and build some forts there at some point in the near future, from lack of nothing else to do if not anything else.
 
I think that's the problem, the other's wouldn't want Raymond adding to his already considerable territory. I don't know if the assassins are going to be added to the Kingdom for a while, they're viewed by the crusaders as basically undefeatable atm I think.

I haven't quite decided about the King of Armenia yet, it could go either way...

The raids aren't that bad, but Godfrey will probably want to establish control in Sinai and build some forts there at some point in the near future, from lack of nothing else to do if not anything else.

Quite. I wouldn't be so worried about him as I would be about a descendant. After all, they might not be as patient, cautious, or wily as their forefather as to play all the nobles off of each other.

...Just a question, but what does the succession of Edessa look like?

It will take another front away, most certainly. And the rivers in the mountains of Sinai should be richer than the desert flats. Of course, a naval presence might lead to eventual trade with India... Which might lead to someone seeking an alternate route to India earlier.
 
Haven't read this yet, but I'm about to. I'm surprised I haven't seen any mention of Eleanor of Aquitaine, though. She was incredibly influential in the crusade.
 
Subbed, though I think a Latin-Makurian alliance is a bit ASB. Crusader takeover of the Levant and Lower Egypt, fine, but Makuria?? Come on.

Awesome work so far though.
 
@Luminous, the countess of Edessa is married to Humphrey's heir, so when he dies his son'll be Prince of Egypt and Count of Edessa. Awesome map as usual btw :D

@DominousNovus, you're probably right, I haven't covered everything in my posts, more an overall summary with a focus on Jerusalem itself.

@Draeger, how come you think the alliance is ASB? They're both Christian states (albeit different denominations) who had a mutual enemy...

It might be a little while until I get the next update out I'm afraid, I've got a fair bit of work to do IRL
 
@Luminous, the countess of Edessa is married to Humphrey's heir, so when he dies his son'll be Prince of Egypt and Count of Edessa. Awesome map as usual btw :D

@DominousNovus, you're probably right, I haven't covered everything in my posts, more an overall summary with a focus on Jerusalem itself.

@Draeger, how come you think the alliance is ASB? They're both Christian states (albeit different denominations) who had a mutual enemy...

It might be a little while until I get the next update out I'm afraid, I've got a fair bit of work to do IRL


Very nice! That being the case, that will bring Edessa directly under Jerusalem's control as a direct vassal. Egypt-Edessa has a nice ring. XD So, at this rate, the only nominally independent state is Antioch-Aleppo-Tripoli. Raymond might want to be watching his own heirs now.

Then again, everything will change when the mongol nation attacks, so gonna have to wait on those regards.

As for Makuria, if I recall correctly, the alliance so far has involved "dividing Upper Egypt in two" and "Humphrey making a point of cleaning up their borders so Makuria can dedicate time towards annexing Blemmeyes." Whatever the opinions of the Latins and Makurians towards each other, Egypt is more secure with them on the southern border. Makuria is currently having to integrate as many of their lands a spossible. They won't be able to make an aggressive move for a decade or so, at least. And they would be a better southern neighbor than an angry and rebuilding Caliphate on the Upper Nile.

Makuria will, if they are feeling expansionist, want to consolidate their hold on Nubia in general. They will always feel the potential for a Latin invasion, and the best way to gain more land is to head south. (Well, they could try to conquer part of Arabia, but I doubt that very much.) I don't see a reason for the Latins to not ally with them. Seeing as the Copts are ever increasingly friendly, I don't see a reason to treat the Makurians differently.
 
It would be unwise for the crusader states to harm their relations with Makuria. Makuria is not a powerhouse like the Byzantines but the fact that they held their ground against the tide of Islam for six hundred years is testament to the kingdom's military prowess and competent leadership. In addition, Makuria has been looked upon by the Coptic Christians as their protector of their rights. An attack on Makuria would alienate the native Christians and might turn them against the crusaders. The same could be said for the Makurians as they're rapidly expanding and need time to integrate their territories before plotting an attack on the Crusaders.

I could see it happening from either sides, though not now. Perhaps in the next generation of Latin-Makurian rulers. There are fools on both sides who might desire a chance at glory and riches. It wasn't the King of Jerusalem or any of the other crusader rulers but one of his autonomous feudal vassals who had attacked an Arab caravan that led to war against Saladin IOTL. Makuria is not a centralized kingdom and has many sub-kings who owe their allegiance to the Makurian monarch at Dongola such as Dotwao. In Nobatia, right below the southernmost territories of the Latins, rules a deputy of the Makurian king titled as the Eparch or Lord of the Horses.
 
I can't see Humphrey starting a war with Makuria, but maybe one of his vassals in the south (especially one of the recent arrivals from Western Europe) could kick something off in the future. Hopefully it'll at least last until the Mongols arrive.
 
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