The question of how much the Germans can use shipping as an addition to their logistics efforts ITTL, is a complex one and the answer is very different to what the answer was IOTL. Starting with the most basic, can the German/Italians use merchant ships to transport goods between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Given that by this time in the Time Line and thanks to the recent transfer of the French Levant from Vichy to Free French control trying to ship goods from Italy or Greece via the Dardanelles into the Black Sea, in the face of British Air and Sea forces is going to be a very good way to lose their ships. With Crete and Rhodes as forward bases, and Cyprus and Beirut as reserve bases, the chances of moving anything other than the smallest of ships through the Aegean Sea without them being intercepted by British Air, Surface or Sub Surface units is slim to none. And with the British sitting on their southern border and applying heavy diplomatic pressure, the Turkish authorities are going to apply the rules of the Montreux Convention to the letter. And their is no way that the Turks are going to charter Turkish ships to the Axis powers either in the Mediterranean or Black Sea. With their historic enemy Russia sitting on their northern border and the British on their southern border, they are definitely stuck between a rock and a hard place. Plus there is the added problem for the Turks, they want to be able to trade with the Anglo Americans for vital supplies, such as oil, rubber, grain and manufactured goods. And this trade is totally controlled by the Anglo Americans, if they don’t play ball, no trade either by land or sea.
In the Black Sea the Axis powers have the problem of having the shipping available to conduct additional operations, in support of the Axis forces in the Soviet Union. Remember that without access to the Turkish merchant fleet and the Soviet merchant fleet they only have those ships within their own fleets available to use. They are not going to be able to build a whole new fleet of ships within a matter of weeks, that will take months or years, if the resources, personnel and shipyards are available. Unlike the Anglo Americans who knew that ships were a priority, and had started a major ship building program from the start of the war, the Axis powers especially Bulgaria which had a Black Sea shore line, had had no idea that Hitler was going to invade the Soviet Union much before it happened. Nor do the Germans have the extensive knowledge of managing shipping and allocating priorities that especially the British did. The British Admiralty had an entire department the Admiralty Trade Devision, that was established, experienced and could call upon experts plus retired naval officers to administer such an operation. From port Captains/Admirals to oversee each port and various departments to allocate ships, to an extensive administration office to ensure that all the departments were properly trained and coordinated. Trying to build a German controlled system in a foreign country, with the inevitable conflict between the Army, Navy and Luftwaffe, and with limited cooperation from the locals, in short order is a recipe for disaster. The Germans who weren’t the worlds greatest at logistics at the best of times, unlike the Anglo Americans who for all their faults were very good most of the time. Are not going to make a success of an effort ITTL, to operate a maritime addition to their land based system in the Black Sea region.
And while the Soviets are not doing well in the region, especially on land, they should be able to carry out some naval operations against the Axis forces in the Black Sea region. The Germans are a very long way away from home, and the land communications are bad to worse, while the maritime communications are just plain bad. As long as the Soviets can keep their remaining Naval assets in commission, and given just how inferior those on the Axis side are. The Soviets should be able to operate at night with very little trouble, it’s only in daylight without an ariel escort that the Soviet surface units are at great risk. And the constant pressure that they are able to subject to Axis to will increase the tensions between the various Axis sides, as the German Army is in constant dispute with the Luftwaffe about providing air cover for their operations, and to the Naval convoys being them supplies. While the German forces will be in dispute with the Bulgarians, about realising shipping to them, that the Bulgarians need for their own forces, and to conduct trade along the Danube and their Black Sea coast. The constant failure of the Germans to take into account the needs of their allies in all the theatres they operated in, and the obvious contempt with which they held their allies in. Was a significant reason why they never achieved the degree of cooperation that the Anglo Americans were able too. Yes the Anglo Americans had their problems, but they managed to basically rub along together towards their common goal. Note there was no Axis equivalent of the Combined Chiefs of Staff, with representation of both high commands, or members of the various Axis powers in any high command position. Nor were there the meetings between the political leaders along with their civilian and military staffs that were a constant feature of the Allied nations. There just wasn’t an Axis equivalent to, Newfoundland, Casablanca, Terran and Yalta, or any of the smaller meetings between various leaders that took place during the war.
RR.
