Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

9 June 1942. Moscow CCCP
9 June 1942. Moscow CCCP

Timoshenko’s news to the STAVKA was not only unwelcome, but as far as Stalin was concerned, following the loss of Sevastopol and the whole of Crimea, close enough to treason.

Comrade General Fedorenko (Chief of the Armoured Forces Administration) had resurrected combined-arms mechanised units. Four Tank Corps had been created, each consisting of three tank brigades, a truck mounted infantry brigade, a reconnaissance battalion, a battalion each of mortars, multiple rocket launchers, anti-aircraft artillery, as well as combat engineers and eventually a transport company. Each Tank Brigade was equipped with 32 Medium T-34s and 21 Light (BT 7 or T60). With an authorised strength of 7800 men, and 168 tanks, the tank corps were thought to be similar to the weakened German Panzer Divisions. Fedorenko intended it that way, and had plans to combine these tanks corps into tank armies that would allow the deep operations that Soviet operational doctrine called for. Of the first two of these, 5th was operational and 1st would be by July.

Timoshenko brought the unwelcome news that 21st and 23rd Tank Corps had been totally destroyed, along with three Rifle Armies, by the Germans, who were now pushing forward towards Voronezh on the upper Don River. The problems they faced were that the intelligence had underestimated the size of the German presence. Movements of German reinforcements had been totally missed, so the attack towards Kharkov had been doomed from the start. The loss of Crimea meant that the Luftwaffe had concentrated both the 2nd and 4th Air Fleets which gave them total command of the skies, making aerial reconnaissance impossible.

Stalin was convinced that once the Germans had crossed the Don at Voronezh they would turn north to once again attack Moscow. He therefore denied requests for reinforcements to be sent south to aid Timoshenko’s Southwestern Front. Timoshenko added his worry that the German troops who had captured Crimea would be in a position to either cross the Kerch Strait and threaten Rostov from behind, or be added to the attack, giving the Germans the capacity to head both north to Moscow and southeast towards the oil fields of the Caucasus.

This did nothing to convince Stalin to change his mind, the Germans were coming for Moscow, that was obvious. Timoshenko would have to make do with what he had. The lessons of the previous summer had been learned to some degree. The Germans would attempt to encircle the Red Army wherever possible. Timoshenko had permission to pull his forces back in a timely manner to prevent them being lost. Once the Germans turned north, then Southwestern Front would be in a position to attack the German flank and rear.

Timoshenko knew that his most competent and effective mobile force had already been lost, even before the full German attack. The ability to make effective withdrawals in the front of the enemy, without air superiority would be nightmarish. He needed to get back to his HQ and start working on a realistic plan of trading terrain for time.
 
After the somewhat debacle of the last update, hopefully this one doesn't have so many glaring errors.
Note the fall of Crimea ahead of OTL, as well as the OTL losses of the Red Army in the Kharkov battle. As I understand it, Stalin's view of German intentions is the same as OTL.
Allan.
 
The better the nazis do in the east, the less resources the soviets will have once the Germans outrun their supply lines and start running out of manpower and materiel, with the potential for more lands being free after the war. There is also a chance that the nazi high command will gamble more on winning in the east quickly and turning their whole war machine around afterwards, with more troops sent away from the west, potentially delaying case Anton.
 
On top of that, every soldier sent east is one less to defend the west...
It also will probably mean that Western Allies get further into Germany, maybe all the way to Berlin if they play the cards right.

Which will really mess with the post-war USSR with the German experts to loot.
 
Hm, I wonder if we might avoid the Warsaw Pact this time around, or at least, such a strong one. If the Soviets hit the bottom of their manpower reserves earlier, they might not be able to take as much as they did OTL.
 
Hm, I wonder if we might avoid the Warsaw Pact this time around, or at least, such a strong one. If the Soviets hit the bottom of their manpower reserves earlier, they might not be able to take as much as they did OTL.
TBH as others have said, we will probably see both German, Austria and Czechoslovakia taken by the Western Allies if they play the cards right, which will piss Stalin off in private since it will deprive the Russians of the loot they acquired OTL to help them rebuild and catch up with the Western Allies with all the looted Technical knowledge and looted especially since Stalin screws over a lot of his domestic boffins.

Maybe a rump Poland as well but that's a big if since it will overextend which ever formations push out that way.
 
Sevastopol falling earlier may mean a few more divisions available to bolster 6th Army but as 11th Army in the Crimea was principally an infantry and artillery formation it's not going to change things too much. Still probably gets broken up and sent to all fronts.

if Manstein's suggestion of using it to secure the Kuban earlier was taken up then the Germans may have been able to secure more of the coastal strip on the Black Sea easing their supply issues a little.
 
Sevastopol falling earlier may mean a few more divisions available to bolster 6th Army but as 11th Army in the Crimea was principally an infantry and artillery formation it's not going to change things too much. Still probably gets broken up and sent to all fronts.

if Manstein's suggestion of using it to secure the Kuban earlier was taken up then the Germans may have been able to secure more of the coastal strip on the Black Sea easing their supply issues a little.
It would also make the Black Seas Situation a lot more dire for the Red Navy, especially if they had to get out fast without destroying the docks or, worse, leaving behind some ships. Especially since they just lost their major docking and repair ability for the Black Sea with the Fall of Crimea.
 
Great update Allan! - Axis are about 3 weeks ahead of schedule vs OTL with considerably more aircraft and Tanks. Assuming from this point everyone does the same...things could get awful for Soviets. Yes the Axis will still experience fuel shortages but also have more since it's not being used in North Africa. Even if it's a wash and same as OTL - that time alone is crucial. Stalingrad isn't going to happen ITTL. With 4th Luft not being split or wasting so much time / fuel supporting the North - Rostov will fall earlier. OTL a major change to case blau - Hoth's 4th Panzer army being diverted to Army Group B then back to Army group A when it turned out Rostov was easier than expected. that led to a lot of wasted fuel and one of the most powerful German forces running around like the Benny Hill show for a couple of weeks, bruning fuel and clogging roads. Had it not been , it would have been in place to do what the original plan called for - cut off reinforcement of Stalingrad and not leave Paulus 6th to do it alone - who later paused to wait for 4th to come back again allowing the Soviets to reinforce from the North. .

Even if they are diverted- the time alone enables Paulus to get in before the OTL Soviet reinforcements could. It also gives Army Group A (with or without Hoth's 4th) time and much more air support to cut off 80% of Soviet oil from Baku. With the 4th Panzer Army not being belatedly pulled into the Stalingard meater grinder then it's possible Baku is really under siege or captured .. which could only be relieved by ....say British Victors coming up from Iran??? :cool:
 
Yes the Axis will still experience fuel shortages but also have more since it's not being used in North Africa
No, No, No. The issue is not yet the amount of oil, its getting that oil to the front, so having a bit more makes no difference. The Germans had to chose between sending fuel , ammo, supplies and men, they just did not have the logistics to send all they needed of each.
 
No, No, No. The issue is not yet the amount of oil, its getting that oil to the front, so having a bit more makes no difference. The Germans had to chose between sending fuel , ammo, supplies and men, they just did not have the logistics to send all they needed of each.
Exactly. In North Africa, the Axis didn't bring nearly enough logistical support, and so were working with captured British equipment a lot of the time. That's going to limit how much the Axis can manage in the Soviet Union. Sure they can do a bit better, capture more troops and the like, but I doubt they're going to be grabbing much more land than OTL.
 
No!No!No! ?? Goodness me, no need for the shoe banging on the desk. Look lets not get into a back and forth. As I stated - even if there is somehow magically no improvement in supplies to the Russian front due to no longer sending a massive amount to North Africa every month - the time table here hugely benefits the Axis.. Simply having more than just the 4th Luft for air support reduces the amount of fuel needed per sortie. Rommel used a huge amount more fuel and vehicles per vehicle/ truck/ tank than regular German forces. Nevermind the manpower. Here's some good reads on A) just how well Blau did go early sumer'42 B) the massive amount of resources that North Africa consumer for the Germans. They don't have to travel all the way to Siberia. Just get to where they did a bit sooner.

https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/north-african-campaign-wwiis-ultimate-war-of-logistics/
 
Whilst im sure less fuel per sortie is needed its balanced out by more food required, more cosumerbles like boots uniforms paper etc....more trains required to bring more troops to and from leave,
As i understand it the German/axis supply lines where stretched to limit anyway so these extra forces are likely to break it in places with some parts of the front in short supplt of maybe fuel and ammunition at a crucial point .... i may be wrong but thats how i read the situation
 
No!No!No! ?? Goodness me, no need for the shoe banging on the desk. Look lets not get into a back and forth. As I stated - even if there is somehow magically no improvement in supplies to the Russian front due to no longer sending a massive amount to North Africa every month - the time table here hugely benefits the Axis.. Simply having more than just the 4th Luft for air support reduces the amount of fuel needed per sortie. Rommel used a huge amount more fuel and vehicles per vehicle/ truck/ tank than regular German forces. Nevermind the manpower. Here's some good reads on A) just how well Blau did go early sumer'42 B) the massive amount of resources that North Africa consumer for the Germans. They don't have to travel all the way to Siberia. Just get to where they did a bit sooner.

https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/north-african-campaign-wwiis-ultimate-war-of-logistics/
OK , not very good articles to quote, they seem to have made a conclusion and then worked backwards to justify it.

First, most of the supply motor transport in North Africa was not actually German, it was Italian or captured. ITTL most will have been lost/never taken.
Second, Luftwaffe supply in terms of tonnage was pretty small until the final phase. Its not going to be able to do much as the Germans charge forward as airfields etc would need to be built and dumps moved forward.
Third, the key long range logistics in WW2 are rail and sea, nothing from North Africa actually changes those in any way. The articles you quote seem to handwave bottlenecks caused by this and assume the Germans can deliver infinite capacity up to the railheads. There were good reasons German forces in the East were de mechanising ( fodder/animals could be requisitioned locally unlike fuel/trucks/parts and so used less precious rail capacity ).
 
OK , not very good articles to quote, they seem to have made a conclusion and then worked backwards to justify it.

First, most of the supply motor transport in North Africa was not actually German, it was Italian or captured. ITTL most will have been lost/never taken.
Second, Luftwaffe supply in terms of tonnage was pretty small until the final phase. Its not going to be able to do much as the Germans charge forward as airfields etc would need to be built and dumps moved forward.
Third, the key long range logistics in WW2 are rail and sea, nothing from North Africa actually changes those in any way. The articles you quote seem to handwave bottlenecks caused by this and assume the Germans can deliver infinite capacity up to the railheads. There were good reasons German forces in the East were de mechanising ( fodder/animals could be requisitioned locally unlike fuel/trucks/parts and so used less precious rail capacity ).
Plus the recent butterfly in this story is an earlier fall of Sevastopol (by about a month). Which likely reduces the casualties Manstein suffered with11th Army and potentially means it is still combat effective. But more troops means more supplies and a greater strain on logistics.

11th Army is mostly infantry so not as big a load as a panzer army but then not as big an impact on the campaign either. A few divisions could make it to Stalingrad to bolster the flanks of 6th Army but unlikely to do much better than the Romanians facing Russian armour. As I mentioned earlier a better use for them could be in reducing the Black sea ports - easier supply lines for them and they are the right kind of troops to grind down the defences (with heavy siege artillery). That may give the Germans a slightly better chance to go slightly deeper into the Caucasus but this is a double edge sword if they can't hold off the Soviets during Uranus
 
Losses on the German side for the North African campaign, according to wikipedia, amounted to ~22K troops killed or missing, and ~180K captured, plus the loss of (collectively with the Italians), 2,550 tanks ~70,000 trucks, ~6,200 guns, ~8,000 aircraft and ~2.4M tonnes of shipping. Sure this won't mean all that much on the offensive, but once the tide turns, the Germans will have fractionally more soldiers, and they'll be slightly better equipped, which, combined with the increased losses the Soviets are taking here, might slow the Soviets down in their advance.
 
The worse the situation in Russia gets for the Russians, the more pressure Churchill is going to feel under to do something like go in in the Balkans to try and get Turkey into the war or run his 'Operation Jupiter' to liberate Norway and clear the Arctic Convoys route from anything except whatever interference the Axis can run from Finland.

When Churchill makes his trip to Moscow to meet Stalin in mid-1942 (or this timeline's equivalent) the discussions about 'where next?' should be interesting...
 
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