Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

[brazen]

While the North African Vichy forces offer little to the allied cause until they are brought up to date, it's the intangible benefits that taking the rest of north Africa will bring make it worth the political manoeuvring.

Large iron ore deposits along with other raw materials closer to the UK frees up shipping, removal of any invasion risk to Gibraltar, basing rights for ASW aircraft on the Atlantic coast and protected routes for convoys through the Med.

All these areas bring benefits in reducing demands on mechant shipping and cuts time to reinforce the far East war. Less escorts are needed so there are more to deploy against the U boats in the North Atlantic resulting in more resources available for the development and manufacture of tanks and other war materials.

 

[Thoresby]

Pierre Lavan

I think you mean Pierre Laval here.

 

[JamesHunter]

In 1942, the US army was not large enough, or experienced enough, for an invasion of southern France, anymore than they were for an invasion of northern France, not even with Free French support. However, Anglo-French-American landings on Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica are within their capabilities, and provide forward airbases for assaults on both the Italian mainland and southern France at later dates.

I more meant when the day comes (well into 1943) but as I said the absolute most they might manage is holding Toulon long enough to allow a port landing while the French fleet scarpers. Obviously the terrain isn't quite as bad but as with Italy it would be quite a slog before D-Day can happen in the North.

Also likely ends with Petain shot by the Nazi's which is probably the only way he can half save his ugly rep.

 

[Sqdn19]

I more meant when the day comes (well into 1943) but as I said the absolute most they might manage is holding Toulon long enough to allow a port landing while the French fleet scarpers. Obviously the terrain isn't quite as bad but as with Italy it would be quite a slog before D-Day can happen in the North.

Also likely ends with Petain shot by the Nazi's which is probably the only way he can half save his ugly rep.

It won’t be a matter for British tanks, but how quickly could an “Operation Torch” be set up, and upon clearing Gibraltar, redirected from Algeria to Toulon?

 

[Monty Man]

There's zero need for an Operation Torch at this point. Other than , perhaps, a token one that gives the Vichy French the small chance of "losing" North Africa while Petain can turn around to Germany and say "oopsy..sorry couldn't stop it, please don't invade the rest of France". It's all well and good that O'Connor smacked out Rommel early, but it means no one other than Uncle Joe is fighting Nazis on land right now. Major General Fredendall is still Marshall's buddy and top pick for commanding the US Army in Europe while Patton is wondering why the hell he is commanding the Desert training school back in the US when there's not going to be a desert to fight in..... if you thought Clark screwed up Italy I can't wait to see what Fredendall does with it...

 

[MattII]

There's zero need for an Operation Torch at this point. Other than , perhaps, a token one that gives the Vichy French the small chance of "losing" North Africa while Petain can turn around to Germany and say "oopsy..sorry couldn't stop it, please don't invade the rest of France". It's all well and good that O'Connor smacked out Rommel early, but it means no one other than Uncle Joe is fighting Nazis on land right now. Major General Fredendall is still Marshall's buddy and top pick for commanding the US Army in Europe while Patton is wondering why the hell he is commanding the Desert training school back in the US when there's not going to be a desert to fight in..... if you thought Clark screwed up Italy I can't wait to see what Fredendall does with it...

So combine Torch with Husky.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

It won’t be a matter for British tanks, but how quickly could an “Operation Torch” be set up, and upon clearing Gibraltar, redirected from Algeria to Toulon?

Torch if anything like the original timeline, involves troop transports and escorts, which means you need to assemble all those ships and have them fuelled up and ready to go before you can do anything else.
So not really something you can do at the drop of a hat unless you've had ships sitting around assembled doing little but wait for the possible operation, for weeks or maybe months...

 

[kelgar04]

TBH a Major factor on Tourch going ahead is the Germans or Italians getting forces into French North Africa.

That's realistically not going to happen they have no way to move in a major or heavy enough force across the Med without major escort and the Germans have jack avaliable for this and the Italain fleet is sat in harbour and will not move for anything since they got there heads handed to them.

Keeping French North Africa right now neutral benfits the Allies.

 

[Sqdn19]

The only way to get Vichy to keep a fig leaf of honour is for them to change sides swiftly while the allies land.
The advantage to the US Army is that they’d be able to make an unopposed landing. Judging by Kasserine Pass and Op Torch, I fear an opposed landing would be likely to fail or go very painfully.
Vichy will be under more pressure than OTL, so I’d imagine they’d likely change their tune. I’m not sure if the US Army would realise the threat.

If the US was able to arrive in time to maintain at least part of Vichy France, it would be a great PR coup for the allies, an easier entry for the Americans, a lifeline for Vichy and a hope for the pro-neutral side of the Italians. It’d even take some pressure off Uncle Joe.

HMG would know all this, and the Americans would be likely to be gung-ho to try. Operation Sledgehammer into south France has a nice ring to it. And pretending to do Operation Torch would hopefully keep the Nazis off Vichy until the fleet turns left at Gibraltar Rock instead of right.

 

[17inc]

I think there's one one thing over looking at the moment the needs off the Far East and the open rout from the western med to eastern med when it comes to French North Africa the brits just cant have them making there minds when they jump ship. The suez canal needs to be open shipping ASP.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

The only way to get Vichy to keep a fig leaf of honour is for them to change sides swiftly while the allies land.
The advantage to the US Army is that they’d be able to make an unopposed landing. Judging by Kasserine Pass and Op Torch, I fear an opposed landing would be likely to fail or go very painfully.
Vichy will be under more pressure than OTL, so I’d imagine they’d likely change their tune. I’m not sure if the US Army would realise the threat.

If the US was able to arrive in time to maintain at least part of Vichy France, it would be a great PR coup for the allies, an easier entry for the Americans, a lifeline for Vichy and a hope for the pro-neutral side of the Italians. It’d even take some pressure off Uncle Joe.

HMG would know all this, and the Americans would be likely to be gung-ho to try. Operation Sledgehammer into south France has a nice ring to it. And pretending to do Operation Torch would hopefully keep the Nazis off Vichy until the fleet turns left at Gibraltar Rock instead of right.

The thing is, the seaborne approach for a Torch anything like the original timeline one is only subject to aviation harrassment from aviation in French North Africa, and at least for the western landings there's relatively little time to react and respond.
Once a fleet is past Gibraltar, Axis airpower in Sicily, Sardinia, Corsica, and Southern France can go on alert and take more and more attacks runs at the incoming ships - especially if they're not heading for French North Africa (as with original timeline Torch), but cutting northeast for southern France instead.
See original timeline Operation Pedestal for what Axis airpower in the Mediterranean could still do in mid-1942 - I'm not sure that that's a noose Roosevelt would be prepared to stick his own troops' necks into in 1942, with an attempt to land in southern France. The Americans already saw at Pearl Harbour for themselves what airpower can do to naval vessels.

 

[Sqdn19]

The thing is, the seaborne approach for a Torch anything like the original timeline one is only subject to aviation harrassment from aviation in French North Africa, and at least for the western landings there's relatively little time to react and respond.
Once a fleet is past Gibraltar, Axis airpower in Sicily, Sardinia, Corsica, and Southern France can go on alert and take more and more attacks runs at the incoming ships - especially if they're not heading for French North Africa (as with original timeline Torch), but cutting northeast for southern France instead.
See original timeline Operation Pedestal for what Axis airpower in the Mediterranean could still do in mid-1942 - I'm not sure that that's a noose Roosevelt would be prepared to stick his own troops' necks into in 1942, with an attempt to land in southern France. The Americans already saw at Pearl Harbour for themselves what airpower can do to naval vessels.

True; I don't suppose USAAF & RAF fighters could forward deploy to Tunisia fast enough. Even if they could, only the P-38 would have the range to escort the fleet in, and they'd be hard to wring out of the PTO & the 8th AF. The Regia Aeronautica in Corsica & Sardegna would certainly be a threat unless the Italians decided to jump ship with Vichy. That would be hard to pull off but potentially worth a feeler. Even if not, possibly the Resistance & SOE could silence or degrade much of the Corsican aircraft, and Vichy might be able to do the same to any Luftwaffe sorties out of southern France. The RAF in Malta, reinforced by the Desert Air Force, could make life warm enough for the Sicily-based Fliegerkorps X, I'd imagine.

Although I agree Roosevelt won't want to try to run Pedestal through - at least not without Armoured Carriers* - I can see him wanting to "do something". Especially if someone in Vichy decides to get desperate enough. And to their standpoint, it must be looking worse than it ever really was OTL. Certainly, Perfidious Albion defeated only a Panzer Corps, but they did do so swiftly and quite easily. And getting their army to beaches all over the Med when they're supposed to be locked out of the continent isn't entirely historically unknown either (cough cough Napoleon at Toulon).

From the American standpoint, what's to be gained through doing Torch militarily? There's no real way for the Axis to gain control of FNA, and it is somewhat unglamorous compared to Husky. Especially if "Those Limeys" are busy (planning on) running around the Dodecanese after having the audacity to win in the Far East where MacArthur couldn't. The Canadians pushed for Jubilee simply because they felt they were being left out. I suspect the US would be feeling the same way, if not even more so.
--
*Come to think of it that's a debate I haven't seen here for quite a long time

 

[Merrick]

The trouble with all these Mediterranean extravaganzas is the that the bits do not fit into the box, and cannot be made to fit the box. Weygand is not going to go over to the Allies, allow the Allies to use French ports or airfields, sell iron ore to the Allies or do anything else public that looks like supporting the Allies, because as soon as he does, the Germans pull the trigger on Case Anton and a fortnight later Vichy France ceases to exist.

For the Germans, Vichy has two uses - it keeps the Allies out of French North Africa (and Dakar, and other French colonies, but FNA is the big one), and it spares them the cost of keeping an occupation/garrison force n southern France. The moment these stop being true, Vichy stops being useful. Conversely, as long as the Allies respect Vichy "neutrality" in FNA, the Germans have a reason to keep up the pretence of an independent Vichy state. Weygand and other Vichyites know this, hence stalemate.

For the Allies, this leaves them facing a block. If they land in French North Africa, the French will fight - probably not for very long, but they will fight - and the Allies cannot wrap up North Africa, get their aircraft rebased and their ships refuelled and reloaded in time to do anything about the German liquidation of Vichy, which will happen immediately. Then goodbye to any hope of an unopposed landing in Southern France. (OTL, the French resistance to Torch left 1,000 Allied servicemen and 2,000 Frenchmen dead, and only stopped because Darlan - who had not been part of the pre-landing Franco-American diplomatic manoeuverings - happened to be in North Africa and decided to jump the Vichy ship. Darlan was a trimmer. Weygand is not, and is quite likely to order his troops to resist to the last for the honour of the French Army). At that point the only benefit to the Allies of taking North Africa is that it gives them airbases in Tunisia conveniently close to Malta/Sicily.

Bypassing North Africa and going straight to France? Sure, Weygand and FNA might well flip to the Allies as soon as the troops land - but even then it will take time to get the North African ports and airfields up and running in the Allied cause and even then they're hundreds of miles away from Southern France. You're talking about running an invasion convoy - and then supplying the beachhead - with no bases closer than Gibraltar or Tripoli and the northern part of the Mediterranean totally dominated by Axis airpower. Nope. Without those Tunisian airbases, even an invasion of Sicily is looking dubious.

So whence the Allies? Southern France is a pipe dream, Sicily/Italy is highly risky without taking FNA first. FNA means a pointless fight with the French. Churchill will likely be full of Aegean schemes. I think it's very likely the Americans - who have no real beef with Italy and no interest in propping up British interests in the Mediterranean or the Middle East - will argue for simply sticking the whole theatre on the back-burner and going full ahead with plans for a cross-Channel invasion in 1943. Any surplus British units from North Africa can go to Burma/Malaya/East Indies. Let the Limeys fight for their own damn empire.

 

[pjmidd]

So whence the Allies? Southern France is a pipe dream, Sicily/Italy is highly risky without taking FNA first. FNA means a pointless fight with the French. Churchill will likely be full of Aegean schemes. I think it's very likely the Americans - who have no real beef with Italy and no interest in propping up British interests in the Mediterranean or the Middle East - will argue for simply sticking the whole theatre on the back-burner and going full ahead with plans for a cross-Channel invasion in 1943. Any surplus British units from North Africa can go to Burma/Malaya/East Indies. Let the Limeys fight for their own damn empire.

Without the blooding in FNA the US forces will do very badly in France. Torch was a vital contribution in getting the US Army into a state it knew what it was doing, without it casualties will be very high.

 

[yulzari1]

Let us be clear. Vichy policy is to avoid Case Anton. Their military defences fighting the Commonwealth in Dakar, Syria and Madagascar were evidence of the lengths they would go to in order to demonstrate their ‘neutrality’ to the Axis. It is questionable if a Vichy fighting defence of FNA would avoid Case Anton being triggered by a ‘Torch’ set of landings but it might be avoided and all of this underpinned Vichy policy.

Let us consider NA without Torch. Building up the forces on the Libya/Tunisia border to take Tunisia but not Algeria. What route might the butterfly take? Can Tunisia be isolated from seaborne supplies and reinforcement? What would Vichy do with its Algerian forces? The French forces in Tunisia, few as they are, could be added to the Axis defence as Vichy territory is being invaded. The much larger Algerian and Moroccan French forces could come to support the Vichy-Axis defence of Tunisia and have the potential (if not actually in strength) to interdict Commonwealth forces direct from Algeria into Libya and they are not short of light troops suited to a desert approach and short term raids into the logistics train. The Vichy air forces would be based in Algeria where the Commonwealth maybe reluctant to strike in an attempt to keep Algerian Vichy away from the Axis in Tunisia. Not that they can keep up a long air campaign but they are a real hazard and can do some noticeable short term damage before they are expended.

And what of the Vichy Navy? Much is made of whether they would, or could, sally forth to defend FNA or possibly defect to the Allies but the reality is that there is insufficient oil to give the fleet enough other than a selected small group of the best. And of their value to the Allies; would they make a useful difference to the war at sea were they to defect? A bit like FNA itself, both sides may prefer it to remain inert. The Axis has neither the fuel nor sailors to run them and the Allies have no need of them.

IOTL the main benefit to the allied forces of French participation was troops to man American equipped divisions which would otherwise have meant more American conscription to man them.

I think that, other than defeating the Axis forces in Tunisia the most likely immediate future for FNA and the French colonies generally is to ignore them. With Gibraltar, Crete, Malta and Tunisia in allied hands the Mediterranean is not an axis lake other than the norther littoral and Adriatic. The real question is where to go next. Metropolitan France is too far, Sardinia and Corsica are just putting yourself in a dangerous island prison. Greece and the Balkans are reachable soon. Can Turkey be persuaded to join the Allies, if only helping by opening the route to the Black Sea once Greece is taken? Then Bulgaria and Romania are options for a seaborne landing/s in lieu of the IOTL Italian campaign. A Wallies seizing of Greece is going to impact the Greek Civil War and the Soviets might call their dogs off. Yugoslavia can be left to it’s own devices ably supported by allied supplies and arms and function as a western flank protection to the main thrust towards Hungary and Austria. The Soviets would become the eastern flank protection. Kurvi-Tasch may not be amused but then he has been in a mardy fit about a lack of a Wallies mainland front from the beginning.

 

[Merrick]

Without the blooding in FNA the US forces will do very badly in France. Torch was a vital contribution in getting the US Army into a state it knew what it was doing, without it casualties will be very high.

True, but the US are not going to invade FNA just to give their troops a live-fire exercise. If they decide an exercise is needed before the final landing, they're more likely to go for something like Dieppe (which OTL took place in Aug 1942 and hence is probably already in the planning stages TTL).

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

So whence the Allies? Southern France is a pipe dream, Sicily/Italy is highly risky without taking FNA first. FNA means a pointless fight with the French. Churchill will likely be full of Aegean schemes. I think it's very likely the Americans - who have no real beef with Italy and no interest in propping up British interests in the Mediterranean or the Middle East - will argue for simply sticking the whole theatre on the back-burner and going full ahead with plans for a cross-Channel invasion in 1943. Any surplus British units from North Africa can go to Burma/Malaya/East Indies. Let the Limeys fight for their own damn empire.

Well, the Limey ships would have to battle through the Med (to pick up those surplus British units in NA) or sail the long way around the Cape (for units at home). Supplies for any build-up to fight for the damn Empire will have to go the same way. Clearing the Med removes those challenges.

 

[kelgar04]

Well, the Limey ships would have to battle through the Med (to pick up those surplus British units in NA) or sail the long way around the Cape (for units at home). Supplies for any build-up to fight for the damn Empire will have to go the same way. Clearing the Med removes those challenges.

Also simplifies supplying the Far East for the British and Commonwealth it gives them a pretty damned near secure route through the Med from Gibraltar to the Suez.

So major delays having to send ships around the Horn since they can be pretty much under air cover the entire way baring weather. Adding to this gives the US another secure route east as well to send supplies to China and India since they won't have to route ships the long ways to avoid Japanese air and sea patrols.

 

[MattII]

Hm, I suspect it wouldn't be safe to approach Sicily from the west, but what about sending force around Africa to hit it from the east?

 

[brazen]

True, but the US are not going to invade FNA just to give their troops a live-fire exercise. If they decide an exercise is needed before the final landing, they're more likely to go for something like Dieppe (which OTL took place in Aug 1942 and hence is probably already in the planning stages TTL).

The same drivers exist for Torch style landings, freeing up SLOC through the Med is such a massive saving in shipping that it's worth invading just for that reason.

Carrying out any other landings in the Med without clearing your supply lines from your home ports is idiotic just down to the extra shipping needed to support any invasion having to go round the Cape will be difficult to find while supporting the war in the far East and building up forces in the UK.

It would be faster and safer to bring oil through a pacified Med from the middle east to build up stocks in the UK for any invasion onto continental Europe.

Logistics dictate that Algeria and Morocco must be brought under Allied control one way or another.