Didn't modern estimates believe that Timur fielded an army of 140,000 at Ankara?I would assume that if the expeditionary force was this large,they could indeed stir up the problems you described in China when assisted by the Northern Yuan.If not,I am not sure they would be a challenge for the Ming at all.I mean,the Ming could raise an army of over one million soldiers.
I'll be honest- I don't know. I had to start from scratch while tackling the Timurids, and there's plenty of blindspots. I'm probably completely wrong for my estimates (since I'm basing the values of 'large' and 'small' from the perspective of Western European and Caliphate army sizes in the High Middle Ages, since that's where I'm most familiar with. Which, I'll be the first to admit is a terrible idea. Don't do this timeline writers) so forgive me on that one.
I'll take your word on that and raise the numbers to a more satisfactory amount. Irregardless, it doesn't change the final outcome (I hope) of an invasion and rallying of enemy forces into one group, a campaign south to eliminate the new dynasty, capturing a couple major cities, massive sacking in the country side, attempts at depopulation and property damage before being cornered and beaten in a mountain pass.
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That aside here's a map I've been working on that describes the major states in the post Timur situation. I've finally been learning how to GIMP, and this is essentially my first map with the software. (and any software outside of MSpaint) Hopefully it looks prettier than before.
What do you guys think? Continue with GIMP or back to paint?
Also do note: That orange you see is Genoa, which has been really busy as Romania moves into Anatolia (and the decade's before) trying to expand everywhere so they can rule all the trade. Timur's activities in the Levant and Egypt have (obviously) majorly disrupted trade here, causing an economic depression in Genoa, who's despite trying to be a great power and entering every European market they can get in*, still gets about a good 60% of their income in dominating the Eastern Mediterranean trade shipping.
In response, they've had to make up in a very Genoese way, namely plunder and conquest so that domestic taxes can cover the budget until trade picks backup. Candia and Cyprus, two very easy targets were early up on the list. Naturally this pisses off Romania, and war breaks out. But Constantine isn't in charge any more.
*Note: As you can imagine by knocking their major rival out as a meaningful competitor nearly 60 years ago, Genoa by now would have been undisputed master of the Eastern Med trade along with being dominant in the Silk Road trade via the Black Sea. Following decades of that monopoly combined with new technologies and financial innovations in banking, Genoese patricians would seek to expand fortunes by moving into new markets. The obvious one would be starting in the Western Med, and then the Bay of Biscay and north. By 1410, they've have wrested the majority of shipping away from Aragon in a series of conflicts, along with taking bits of territory as forward bases (as Venice set the example for). But at the same time as the conflicts with Genoa is happening, the Genoese have had their ships move into the traditional Dutch markets in the Channel and have begun to move in as far the Baltic Sea trade.
Genoa is not to be trifled with.