Presidential Election TL | 1988

Andrew T

Andrew T

Very cool update, TCF. Despite Dole's (expected) victories, I would think this gets spun as a very good night for Rumsfeld as well.

Bumpers vs. Ferraro is going to be an interesting race in TTL. Without the Mondale wipeout in '84, you're going to have a weakened Democratic Leadership Council and greater influence from labor unions and the old New Deal coalition. Labor unions will still have a grudge against Bumpers resulting from his anti-union vote in 1978. Old-line liberals are going to be suspicious of a conservative Southern Democrat. So these folks are going to get behind Ferraro at the core of the "Stop Bumpers!" movement, even though they have to recognize that Ferraro is a really terrible candidate.

On the other hand, we have pretty good evidence that Bumpers is not really as conservative as his reputation (and home state) would lead you to believe --

http://www.arkpsa.org/MPSR articles/5 English.pdf

and

http://beck.library.emory.edu/southernchanges/article.php?id=sc02-6_009
(see p.25)

So it seems to me that after March 8, 1988, Bumpers is going to run *hard* to the left. If he can mend fences with organized labor and convince Democrats in places like Illinois, Michigan, Connecticut and Delaware that he's not the second coming of George Wallace, I think he'll have a pretty easy victory.

A few nits: you have South Carolina as a Bumpers state on your map even though their primary hasn't happened yet in TTL. Also, you show Jackson with 0 delegates even though he just won a bunch on Super Tuesday. :)

You've probably seen this already, but the 1988 primary calendar is here:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2009/02/1988-presidential-primary-calendar.html
 

NickCT

Thanks for your input.

1) South Carolina has been done (I lumped GOP and DEM together)

2) I will edit the Jackson numbers, thnks!
 

NickCT

MARCH 10, 1988: FERRARO TAKES ALASKA AS WE LEARN THE LASTING EFFECTS OF SUPER TUESDAY

NF118007.jpg

Jack Kemp announces he will withdraw from the race, endorsing Donald Rumsfeld​

Jack Kemp (R-NY) withdrew from the race and endorsed Donald Rumsfeld for the presidential nomination. Calling Rumsfeld a "great guy" with "a lot of dedication", Congressman Kemp graciously withdrew from the race to become the next President of the United States. Rumsfeld was at the event and thanked Kemp for his endorsement. Kemp's withdrawal was the first of what is expected to be many lasting effects of the Super Tuesday contests earlier in the week. Many political analysts expect Jesse Jackson to withdraw from the campaign in the coming days as he realizes there's no real chance of him getting the nomination, but Bob Dole has given the impression that anyone can be a phoenix, rise from the ashes, and come close to winning the nomination. Unfortunately for the voters that's the reason candidates like Laxalt and Jackson are holding in. NBC's Tom Ritchie talked about Laxalt's chances at the nomination, "Laxalt is going to stay in because there's a real good chance he'll win California with President Reagan's support. Reagan has been, to some extent, financing Laxalt's campaign and efforts in California. Some are suggesting Reagan is trying to deadlock the convention so that Laxalt can indeed win the nomination. Conspiracy theorists have gone as far as to say that Reagan supported Laxalt and Bush Dole so that the convention would deadlock and Bush could enter on the floor, take the delegates and the nomination, and win without having to campaign. Both theories are ridiculous, but Laxalt will definitely be in there to or past California."

In other news results from the Alaska Democrat Caucus are in:

ALASKA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 50% of popular vote (17 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 33% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 17% of popular vote (0 delegates)

This puts the total delegate count at:

DEMOCRAT DELEGATE TOTAL (2,215 needed, including 700 super delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 817 delegates
Geraldine Ferraro: 651 delegates
Jesse Jackson: 168 delegates

Negative backlash has begun towards Arkansas Senator Dale Bumpers for starting to backtrack on what voters inferred were conservative views. "In a matter of minutes," Political Analyst Roger Hark explained, "Dale Bumpers had won the southern states -- through moderate/conservative speeches and proposals. Now he needs the North east and North west. Since he can't win the polls up there with moderate/conservative policies he's gone far more liberal." As a result voters have started to become "turned off" by the Bumpers Campaign. Ferraro's camp was quick to catch on to the backlash against Bumpers by releasing a campaign advertisement on television going through conservative comments previously made and new comments that are more recent. When the ad ends the screen goes black and you hear the squeak of a flip flop sandal before the words, "Do you want a flip flopper in the White House? Or do you hold respect for the office?". The ad produced minimum controversy and articulated the point Geraldine Ferraro HAS to make about Ferraro's "sudden change of heart".


MARCH 27, 1988: RESULTS IN FOR THE DEMOCRATS FROM IL, KS, MI, AND ND AS FERRARO SWEEP SURPRISES POLITICAL EXPERTS, LEAVES BUMPERS CAMPAIGN GASPING FOR AIR

110326_geraldine_ferraro_ap_522_regular.jpg

Geraldine Ferraro made an impressive sweep in four states that left her with 413 new delegates, and now she leads Senator Bumpers with 1,064 delegates. First results and then analysis:

ILLINOIS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 54% of popular vote (187 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 35% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)

KANSAS DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 44% of popular vote (43 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 44% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 12% of popular vote (0 delegates)

MICHIGAN DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 53% of popular vote (151 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 24% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 23% of popular vote (0 delegates)

NORTH DAKOTA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 41% of popular vote (32 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 41% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 18% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Ferraro barely won North Dakota and Kansas. With many voters unsure about where Bumpers stood as a candidate Ferraro capitalized on his recent "changes of heart". Bumpers responded late tonight, far too late, by calling out the Congresswoman and pointing how he has been more liberal then people had perceived him to be. "It's unfortunate that the Congresswoman resorts to distorting my record," the statement read, "because my campaign is about truth in politics." Here are delegate totals for the Democratic Party followed by Illinois results for the Republicans, and then the GOP Delegate Totals:

DEMOCRAT DELEGATE TOTAL (2,215 needed, including 700 super delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 1,064 delegates
Dale Bumpers: 817 delegates
Jesse Jackson: 168 delegates

ILLINOIS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 33% of popular vote (92 delegates)
Bob Dole: 28% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 8% of popular vote (0 delegates))

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE TOTAL (1,128 needed)
Donald Rumsfeld: 667 delegates
Bob Dole: 333 delegates
Orrin Hatch: 155 delegates
John Ashcroft: 136 delegates
Paul Laxalt: 20 delegates
 

NickCT

MARCH 29, 1988: CONNECTICUT VOTERS GO FOR RUMSFELD AND FERRARO

Voter.jpg

Former New York Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro successfully took the Connecticut Primary as did Republican front runner Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense. Neither of the victories were unexpected, but both cemented the fact that Ferraro and Rumsfeld were indeed the front runners. After a rather poor Super Tuesday performance by Geraldine Ferraro, many thought Bumpers would run away with the nomination, but Ferraro demonstrated her control over the Democratic Party by taking the contests in Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, and North Dakota -- giving her needed momentum heading in to Connecticut. On the Republican side Donald Rumsfeld took a commanding win, defeating John Ashcroft (his main competitor in Connecticut). Here are detailed results:

CONNECTICUT DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 45% of popular vote (59 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 42% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 13% of popular vote (0 delegates)

CONNECTICUT REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 30% of popular vote (35 delegates)
John Ashcrfot: 24% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 22% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 8% of popular vote (0 delegates)

DEMOCRAT DELEGATE TOTAL (2,215 needed, including 700 super delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 1,123 delegates
Dale Bumpers: 817 delegates
Jesse Jackson: 168 delegates

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE TOTAL (1,128 needed)
Donald Rumsfeld: 702 delegates
Bob Dole: 333 delegates
Orrin Hatch: 155 delegates
John Ashcroft: 136 delegates
Paul Laxalt: 20 delegates


MARCH 30, 1988: 100 SUPER DELEGATES MAKE CHOICES KNOWN

U841560.jpg

Walter Mondale pushed for super delegates to endorse Geraldine Ferraro​

Before we begin there is something you should note: there are two kinds of Super Delegates. Some are elected officials in the Democratic Party while some are "add-on" delegates who are not pledged electors. Today, 1/7 of the Super Delegates announced who'd they'd support. Forty-five will vote for Gerry Ferraro, thirty will vote for Dale Bumpers, and twenty-five announced support for Jesse Jackson. The new delegate totals are below:

DEMOCRAT DELEGATE TOTAL (2,215 needed, including 700 super delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 1,168 delegates
Dale Bumpers: 847 delegates
Jesse Jackson: 193 delegates

This was a big bump for Ferraro who will continue to push for more endorsements as her momentum continues to grow. Former Presidential Candidate Walter Mondale led a large push to get super delegates to endorse Ms. Ferraro, but many will be waiting until the convention or the nomination has been decided to make public, official endorsements. Political Analyst Roger Hark talked about what this meant, "Dale Bumpers is losing steam as Ferraro continues to paint him as nothing more than an ineffective flip flopper, but in the process of bringing Bumpers down, she's going to have to regain trust and support of Independent voters as well as moderate/conservative Democrats. Unfortunately for Bumpers his campaign is running out of money, but Ferraro's is bringing in substantial amounts as she has O'Neil and Mondale to cross the nation fundraising for her. It'll be interesting to see how the end result comes out, but I think we're looking at a Ferraro/Bumpers ticket."
 
Andrew T

Andrew T

I would think the superdelegates would hold off, just like Obama v. Clinton in 2008, because Bumpers would have *so* much more institutional support than Ferraro at this point.

Bill Clinton is probably tearing out his hair at the DLC as we speak :)
 

NickCT

Exciting news, everyone:

I will be keeping this timeline alive. Look for the first detailed post (hopefully) on Sunday (sorry, but exams come first).

Please note that I really don't have the time to devote to such a detailed timeline so expect the format to change...it'll probably resemble the "President Nixon" thread more than this current one (at least until exams are over).

By the way: I have picked the Democratic Ticket and when you compare their ticket to one of the 2012 GOP Contenders I think you're going to find a radical change in the future ;) *hint, hint*
 
Last edited:

NickCT

April 1988

April 4, 1988: Geraldine Ferraro and Donald Rumsfeld win Colorado Caucuses; Jesse Jackson withdraws, endorsing Ferraro.

April 5, 1988: Ferraro and Rumsfeld win Wisconsin Primary; Paul Laxalt withdraws, endorsing Dole; John Ashcroft withdraws, endorsing Rumsfeld

April 16, 1988: Ferraro wins her 10th straight victory, winning the Arizona Democratic Caucuses

April 18, 1988: Ferraro wins Delaware Caucuses

April 19, 1988: Rumsfeld and Ferraro win New York Primary and Vermont Caucuses

April 25, 1988: Senator Bumpers wins Utah Caucuses on Democratic Side, Dole Prevails in Republican Caucuses; Donald Rumsfeld wins Delaware Republican Caucuses

April 26, 1988: Senator Orrin Hatch withdraws, endorsing Rumsfeld, after losing home state; Geraldine Ferraro wins Pennsylvania DEM Primary, Rumsfeld wins GOP Primary

April 27, 1988: Squaring off in what seems to be the final debate among the candidates, Ferraro and Bumpers exchanged little heated debate while outlining their plans on the economy...Ferraro declared the winner
 

NickCT

May 1988 -- We Have Our Nominees

May 3rd: FERRARO TAKES DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

geraldine-ferrero-e_798098f.jpg

Today, May 3rd, will not be a day many women forget. After upset victories in Indiana and Ohio, former U.S. Representative Geraldine Ferraro has become the Presumptive Presidential Nominee for her party after Senator Dale Bumpers withdrew from the campaign late tonight. "Let this serve as an example to women everywhere that anything is possible!" Ferraro exclaimed to an excited crowd in Dayton, Ohio.

Senators Dale Bumpers withdrew from the race tonight announcing, "There is no possible path for me to take the nomination. I trust that Geraldine will be a great leader. I am happy to withdraw and endorse her for the Democratic Nomination for President!"

Speculation has now turned to who will become the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee, aides close Ferraro report that she will be making her announcement shortly after a Presumptive Republican Nominee is declared, hoping to continue her momentum. General Election matchups so Ferraro leading Senator Dole (50-43) and losing, though slightly, to Donald Rumsfeld (45-47).

May 3, 1988: Rumsfeld wins Ohio Primary; Dole wins Indiana Primary

May 10, 1988: Dole wins Nebraska Primary and West Virginia Primary

May 14, 1988: Rumsfeld wins Arizona Republican Convention

May 17, 1988: Rumsfeld wins Oregon Primary

May 23rd: RUMSFELD EMERGES AS GOP NOMINEE

rumsfeld-ford-100410-lg-18148075.jpg

Donald Rumsfeld emerged as the GOP Nominee for President as Kansas Senator Bob Dole withdrew from the race, thanking Rumsfeld for a "good debate" that "informed the party and set us up for victory in the general election." Dole conceded the race from his home in Kansas.

A jubilant Rumsfeld approached a throng of supporters in Tampa, Florida to declare himself the presumptive nominee, "Our hard work may have paid off, but we have a long way to go until we succeed in this path to the presidency! Join me and let us make this change happen!"

May 29, 1988: A former White House Intern, asking to remain anonymous, says she heard grumblings that President Reagan was suffering from Alzheimer's Disease

May 31, 1988: Julia Oswald becomes the second White House intern to allege that President Reagan is suffering from Alzheimer's Disease
 

NickCT

June 1988

June 4, 1988: Christopher Warner, former Personal Aide to the White House Press Secretary, sits down for an interview on CBS where he admits he personally heard of the President's battle with Alzheimer's Disease

June 9, 1988: President Reagan's approval rating hits 32% as the country demands to hear more from the President, though the White House continues to say "no comment"

June 10, 1988: Vice President George HW Bush sits down for an interview on NBC where he reassures the country President Reagan is doing his job well

June 11, 1988: Geraldine Ferraro calls for an investigation into President Reagan's mental state; The Ferraro Campaign selects June 20th as date for VP Announcement

June 15, 1988: The White House agrees for an interview with President Reagan to be conducted and aired on NBC on July 8th

June 16, 1988: President Reagan is admitted to the hospital, the reason is not released to the public as approval rating for the "Gipper" hits a low of 22%

June 17, 1988: "March on Reagan" rally moves from the Washington Monument to the White House. Protesters hold signs demanding Reagan resign and/or tell the nation the full story
 

NickCT

June 1988, Part II

FERRARO CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- MAY 20th

G. Ferraro: So who do we go with?
Campaign Manager: I think the decision is clear, Gerry.
J. Zaccarro: Are you sure he's not...too conservative?
K. Lingwell (Adviser): Oh he's too conservative, might as well call him a Republican!
J .Zaccarro: Exactly! I heard Rumsfeld was considering him.
Campaign Manager: Rumsfeld? God no, he doesn't need a Governor! Gerry, you do though.
G. Ferraro: I feel like I'm sacrificing too much by choosing him!
Campaign Manager: No, trust me, he's the guy.
J. Zaccarro: Well, Gerry, what'd you think of him when you met with him?
G. Ferraro: He's a great guy, it's just...
K. Lingwell: ...he's from the south?
G. Ferraro: No! God, no. It's just...
K. Lingwell: ...he's a Reagan fan?
G. Ferraro: Yeah...he's a Reagan fan.
Campaign Manager: He'd take the job, Gerry.
*long pause*
G. Ferraro: Call 'em.
Campaign Manager: Don't you want to?
G. Ferraro: Fine...dial 'em.
 

NickCT

June 1988, Part III

JUNE 20, 1988: FERRARO CHOOSES ROEMER AS VICE PRESIDENTIAL PICK, SHOCKS ESTABLISHMENT

roemer1.jpg

Not a single pundit, politico, "expert", or even person expected the choice made by Geraldine Ferraro. Announcing her selection of Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, a young and rising star in the Democratic Party, as her choice for Vice President, the political establishment has been rocked. A Democratic National Committee member, who wishes to remain anonymous, announced she refused to support the ticket, "I cannot support a Reagan Democrat on the ticket!"

Many pundits attribute the move as a smart decision on Ferraro's part. "Her own liberal policies guarantee her the Democratic base, but a Reagan Democrat can lead to even more votes from Independents and Democrats," said NBC's Thomas Ritchie. Ritchie continued, "I think the move can solidify her support with Independents and even put parts of the South in play...something Democrats have struggled with since Jimmy Carter..."

Polls released show Roemer's approval ratings to be fairly strong. 51% of Democrats, 52% of Independents, and 39% of Republicans describe Roemer as a "good pick". A whopping 56% of Independents are considering supporting Ferraro now more than they previously had and an astonishing 21% of Republicans are looking more seriously at Ferraro as a potential candidate.

"Now is not the time for partisan issues, now is the time for real results. I thank Gerry for this nomination, for her confidence, and I am proud to help this ticket to victory!" announced Roemer at the rally in Orlando.

All eyes are on Rumsfeld and the GOP to see their decision.
 

historybuff

Interesting choice. Now we just have to see who Rumsfeld's gonna pick. Got any voice clip of Roemer so I can get an idea of what he sounds like?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top