Presidential Election TL | 1988

[NickCT]

FEBRUARY 7, 1988: HAWAII KEEPS THINGS ROLLIN' FOR RUMSFELD; KANSAS GOES DOLE; ANTICIPATION FOR IOWA CAUCUSES

Both Rumsfeld (left) and Dole (right) won a contest​

Results came in on February 4th concerning the Hawaii Republican Caucuses. Again, surprising no one, Donald Rumsfeld took Hawaii's 20 delegates:

HAWAII REPUBLICAN CAUCUS RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 38% of popular vote (20 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 37% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 2% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 1% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Interestingly enough Paul Laxalt came in a close second, losing the race by roughly a thousand votes. Many feel that Reagan's endorsement helped him, especially with Laxalt releasing several ads attacking Rumsfeld's record as White House Chief of Staff. It seems Paul Laxalt may live to fight another day. Today, however, the spotlight belonged to Bob Dole. Many feared he wouldn't even win his home state, but Dole surprised everyone taking the victory and all 34 of Kansas's delegates. An excerpt from Dole's victory speech: This victory means a lot to me. President Bob Dole will protect the interests of Kansas will all his heart. He'll protect agriculture and farming. After Dole completed his agricultural plans Dole talked about his future in the campaign: We're going on to win Iowa, we'll win big there, and I'm confident that we'll make our nation stronger. Kansas, you've put me in second place and you've given me the momentum to take out the longtime establishment Republicans. It's time for leadership! Here are the detailed results from Kansas:

KANSAS REPUBLICAN CAUCUS RESULTS
Bob Dole: 48% of popular vote (34 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 24% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 12% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 4% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 1% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Impressing almost everyone, Dole managed to double Orrin Hatch's popular vote total. However Political Analyst Roger Hark talked about Dole's win, urging supporters not to get their hopes up, "The truth is we all knew Kansas would come through for Bob, there was really no question. He doesn't have a prayer anywhere else, except maybe Nebraska." However Dole is on Cloud 9, thanking voters and heading to Iowa for a day before leaving to focus on efforts in New Hampshire. Anticipation for Iowa is high among all voters as they look forward to the next caucus. John Ashcroft was in Iowa yesterday where he told reporters he was "cautiously optimistic" about his chances there. However Ashcroft has no delegates at all, in fact left's look at the delegate totals:

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE TOTAL (1,128 needed)
Donald Rumsfeld: 97 delegates
Bob Dole: 34 delegates
John Ashcroft: 0 delegates
Orrin Hatch: 0 delegates
Paul Laxalt: 0 delegates
Jack Kemp: 0 delegates

With both parties implementing winner-takes-all for their delegate reward system to "better prepare candidates for the electoral college" second place doesn't get you as far as it used to. However it increases the need for candidates to get out, meet as many voters as possible, and get their supporters motivated. On the Democratic side former Congresswoman and current Front Runner Geraldine Ferraro met with voters in Waterloo where she urged them to get out and vote on February 8th. "We have the momentum, we have the enthusiasm. Waterloo: we are going to win!" Ferraro exclaimed to a crowd of supporters holding "Ferraro '88" signs. Dale Bumpers, Al Gore, and Jesse Jackson have been falling short at attempting to ruin Ferraro's continuing momentum. NBC's Tom Ritchie said he's "never seen anything like it" when discussing the amount of grassroots support Ferraro has received throughout the campaign. "We may be looking at the first female nominee...and the first female president," he concluded.

FEBRUARY 8, 1988: DOUBLE UPSET IN IOWA!! SHOCKING RESULTS FROM THE HAWKEYE STATE

Senator Bob Dole (R-KS) upset Donald Rumsfeld in the Republican Caucuses​

Shocking everyone in the nation, Bob Dole won the Iowa Caucuses, upsetting former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. The final results:

IOWA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS RESULTS
Bob Dole: 33.1% of popular vote (37 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 32.9% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 26% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 25% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 12% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 3% of popular vote (0 delegates)

In a stunning caucus result it was Bob Dole who declared victory over Rumsfeld and Hatch among others. An excerpt from Dole's victory speech: Well, Iowa, we did it! We showed them who's boss, didn't we? We proved that we were ready to win. We told all those political experts that our campaign wasn't dead. We won! Thank you for this opportunity! Dole's victory is just as shocking as the victory on the Democratic side of things. Dale Bumpers upset Geraldine Ferraro, stealing 58 delegates out from under her! Look at the results from Iowa for the Democrats:

IOWA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
Dale Bumpers: 38% of popular vote (20 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 37.9% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Al Gore: 19.1% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 5% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Looking at delegate totals:

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE TOTAL (1,128 needed)
Donald Rumsfeld: 97 delegates
Bob Dole: 71 delegates
John Ashcroft: 0 delegates
Orrin Hatch: 0 delegates
Paul Laxalt: 0 delegates
Jack Kemp: 0 delegates

Dale Bumpers leads the Democrats after upsetting Geraldine Ferraro in what turned out to be a shocking turn of events, but let's look at the Democratic totals:

DEMOCRAT DELEGATE TOTAL (2,215 needed, including 700 super delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 58 delegates
Geraldine Ferraro: 0 delegates
Al Gore: 0 delegates
Jesse Jackson: 0 delegates

Ferraro is 58 delegates down, not the best place to be regarding momentum, but she has a commanding lead in New Hampshire. Political Analyst Roger Hark tells Democrats to "still count on Ferraro as the nominee".

 

[Unknown]

How far do you plan on taking this (and this is good, IMO)?

 

[NickCT]

How far do you plan on taking this (and this is good, IMO)?

throughout the term(s) of the winner at least but the terms will be done differently. there format will be more like

January 29, 1990 President so and so called on congress to pass the piece of legislation saying it would benefit all people blah blah blah

then for the campaigns (definitely presidential, possibly midterms) i'll be in the format that i'm using now

 

[historybuff]

Whoa, lot of big upsets. Sounds like some people are gonna have to drop out eventually.

 

[tarrant77]

Absolutely love the timeline, didn't the democrats divide the delegates by proportion though?

 

[NickCT]

FEBRUARY 16, 1988: NH PUTS END TO DOLE MOMENTUM AS FERRARO SWEEPS NEW HAMPSHIRE IN IMPRESSIVE WIN, CHALLENGES AMERICANS TO STAND UP TO REAGAN/BUSH REPUBLICANS

Geraldine Ferraro (left) and John Ashcroft (right) won the New Hampshire Primaries for their respective parties​

Surprising virtually no one Geraldine Ferraro took the New Hampshire Democratic Primaries in an impressive sweep. The elections proved her might as the front runner in the race, despite losing Iowa to Senator Dale Bumpers a few days ago. The exact results:

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 52% of popular vote (22 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 24% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 14% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Al Gore: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Ferraro's commanding win allowed her to regain control over the Democratic race for President. Many felt she was going to lose momentum significantly after the Iowa loss, but Ferraro's overwhelming win in New Hampshire has put her, once again, on a clear path to victory. Unfortunately the Iowa loss has her 36 delegates behind Senator Dale Bumpers, but many feel Ferraro will be able to overcome it. "I think the real problem lies with Al Gore and Jesse Jackson, they have to decide if their willing to fight it out until their eventual defeat," said CNN's Nicolas Hammerstein. However on the Republican side of things, Governor John Ashcroft, who'd been neck-and-neck with Donald Rumsfeld in the polls leading up to today, won the primary here in New Hampshire. Calling it a "shot heard 'round the world" Ashcroft promised to take the nomination...and the White House...by storm. "Today's victory proves that we're tired of failed politics," exclaimed Ashcroft.

NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
John Ashcroft: 22% of popular vote (23 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 21.9% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 17.1% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 1% of popular vote (0 delegates)

The results show a gradual die in Rumsfeld's momentum, but he remains the front runner. A state-by-state look at the upcoming states. First the Democrats:

Minnesota (86 Delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 45% of popular vote (86 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 36% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Al Gore: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 8% of popular vote (0 delegates)

South Dakota (19 Delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 31% of popular vote (19 delegates)
Al Gore: 29% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 24% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Maine (19 Delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 44% of popular vote (19 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Al Gore: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)

The Republican polling numbers for the next three Primary states (for them):

Nevada (20 Delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 26% of popular vote (20 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 23% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 10 of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Minnesota (31 Delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 31% of popular vote (31 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 27% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 6% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 4% of popular vote (0 delegates)

South Dakota (18 Delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 29% of popular vote (18 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 27% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 4% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 4% of popular vote (0 delegates)

As the race continues Al Gore (D-TN) has been hinting at withdrawing and endorsing Ferraro's campaign, but these reporters remain to be based on pure speculation. If Gore fails to get a single delegate by the end of Super Tuesday, however, it seems like he may fall short of the Democratic Nomination. Gore isn't an idiot and he understands that his future is purely based on the outcome of Super Tuesday. If he fails to do well, odds are he'll likely withdraw. As for Republican Paul Laxalt it would be a bad decision to withdraw this early. He'll likely win Nevada and California. As he takes California's delegates entirely to himself it may be enough for Republicans to reassess his candidacy and consider voting for him. However Congressman Jack Kemp should probably just exit the race now, maybe try the Senate or Governorship soon and then come back in 1996. As for Bob Dole, his chances remain slim but you never know what tricks Dole has up his sleeves. Here are the current maps containing the results, to date, of the Republican and Democratic primaries (respectively) colors remain the same as they've been all election season:

UP-TO-DATE DELEGATE TOTALS:

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE TOTAL (1,128 needed)
Donald Rumsfeld: 97 delegates
Bob Dole: 71 delegates
John Ashcroft: 23 delegates
Orrin Hatch: 0 delegates
Paul Laxalt: 0 delegates
Jack Kemp: 0 delegates

DEMOCRAT DELEGATE TOTAL (2,215 needed, including 700 super delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 58 delegates
Geraldine Ferraro: 22 delegates
Al Gore: 0 delegates
Jesse Jackson: 0 delegates

Immediate Schedule for Primaries/Caucuses:
February 18: Nevada (Republican)
February 23: Minnesota (Republican/Democrat); South Dakota (Republican/Democrat)
February 24: Wyoming (Republican)
February 28: Maine (Republican/Democrat)
March 01: Alaska (Republican); Vermont (Republican/Democrat)
March 05: South Carolina (Republican); Wyoming (Democrat)

 

[NickCT]

Absolutely love the timeline, didn't the democrats divide the delegates by proportion though?

yes but I was unable to figure out how they divide their delegates proportionally (find the formula) because the elections are quite old so I did have to change that I spent about an exhausting hour searching for it, then came to the realization that it probably makes the race more competitive if you do winner takes-all anyway so I did have to break from realism there, but dates, etc. are accurate by the way, thank you for your interest!!

 

[David Floyd]

Great TL! I'm rooting for Rumsfeld - he's a much smarter man than his tenure under GWB indicates...

 

[Andrew T]

Minor nitpick

TCF -- this is a great point in recent history and a fun AH.

That being said, I think you absolutely have to retcon Bill Clinton endorsing *Jesse Jackson* in the primaries, particularly with his colleague Dale Bumpers a viable candidate at that point.

Clinton, at this time, was the head of the DLC and expressly opposed to what he considered old-school, New Deal, Mondale-losing-in-a-landslide liberalism -- which is, of course, exactly what Jesse Jackson represents. No way Clinton endorses Jackson, even if he's the only candidate left in the race. Similarly, a lot of conservatives think of Al Gore as an uber-liberal today, but in 1988 he was firmly centrist. In fact, most Democrats knew Al Gore -- if they recognized him at all! -- solely from his ill-advised tenure chairing the Senate PMRC hearings about so-called "porn rock." He was the right-most candidate in the '88 Democratic primary (and the only one to be shown up by Dee Snider).

Of course, in a universe in which Mondale *isn't* crushed in a landslide, the DLC almost certainly has less clout within the Democratic Party, and Clinton probably has less influence -- maybe isn't even a keynoter at the '88 convention.

For similar reasons: I don't see Dale Bumpers and Al Gore as simultaneously being plausible top-tier Democratic primary candidates. Both are going to be associated with the DLC; both are southern candidates, and both are going to be running to Ferraro's right. They're courting the same voters, in other words. Moreover, those potential Bumpers/Gore voters are a distinct minority within the Democratic party as a whole -- particularly in 1988, and even more so in this TL -- and so they're likely to be strategic about their support, favoring whichever of Gore or Bumpers looks more electable. In other words: ONE of these guys are likely to be a top-tier nominee, but not both at the same time.

FWIW, the New Republic endorsed Al Gore '88 in TTL back at a time when the New Republic was actually influential in Democratic decision-making circles.

 

[NickCT]

FEBRUARY 18, 1988: LAXALT WINS IN NEVADA, CALLS ON SUPPORT FOR A CAMPAIGN TO "HEAL AMERICA"; FERRARO CONTINUES AGGRESSIVE PUSH IN SOUTH DAKOTA, MINNESOTA

Geraldine Ferraro at a campaign event in Minnesota​

Paul Laxalt successfully managed to win the Republican caucuses in Nevada, with support from several Republican leaders in the state. In his victory speech Laxalt said this: To all those undecided Republicans dissatisfied with how the nation is going I encourage you to join my campaign and together we will heal America! Here are the final results from Nevada:

NEVADA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS RESULTS
Paul Laxalt: 28% of popular vote (20 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 22% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates

With 20 Delegates in the Laxalt Column, the campaign for the Republican nomination moves forward. Bob Dole has focused in on Wyoming as he did in Iowa, trying to get his supporters energized and sway over the undecideds. Dole's campaign is near bankruptcy and therefore will not be spending any money until after Super Tuesday, if they make it that long. Meanwhile former Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro is pushing for strong wins in South Dakota and Minnesota. In Minnesota today she asked voters, "I am counting on your support to win the fight, Minnesota. As I said in my convention address four years ago, I am ready to use the gift of life for others, will you join me in what is sure to be a valiant effort?" Ferraro's aggressive push is nothing new but she's currently working 18 hours a week in the two states. Al Gore is focusing on winning the Maine caucus while Bumpers and Jackson focus on Super Tuesday states. Donald Rumsfeld has released in ad in most Super Tuesday states touting his experience as he continues to fight for victories in Wyoming and Maine. He'll be in Alaska the day of their caucus to meet with voters, marking the only candidate on the Republican side to visit the state. Orrin Hatch released a slew of television, radio, and newspaper advertisements in Super Tuesday states. He's presently pushing aggressively to win Maine as is John Ashcroft. Jack Kemp is attempting to pull off a longshot victory in Minnesota.

Current delegate totals (for the Republicans):

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE TOTAL (1,128 needed)
Donald Rumsfeld: 97 delegates
Bob Dole: 71 delegates
John Ashcroft: 23 delegates
Paul Laxalt: 20 delegates
Orrin Hatch: 0 delegates
Jack Kemp: 0 delegates

FEBRUARY 23, 1988: RESULTS IN FROM MINNESOTA, SOUTH DAKOTA

Rumsfeld and Ferraro won the states of Minnesota and South Dakota​

No one was surprised when they heard the reports from Minnesota that Donald Rumsfeld had won, but everyone was shocked to learn that Congressman Jack Kemp had managed to place second in the Minnesota Caucus. Here are the complete results for Republicans:

MINNESOTA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 25% of popular vote (31 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 23% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 18% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 9% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 6% of popular vote (0 delegates)

In his concession speech, Kemp declared,: This, my friends, is why we don't listen to the polls. We came second in Minnesota but we'll come in first in Wyoming and we WILL win the Republican nomination! With more networks talking about Kemp's impressive second place finish most are ignoring Rumsfeld's win in the state, causing momentum to shift to Kemp in what is a shocking turn of events. On the Democratic side however Geraldine Ferraro won the state of Minnesota. Complete results:

MINNESOTA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 42% of popular vote (86 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 39% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Al Gore: 14% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 5% of popular vote (0 delegates)

When we move to South Dakota here are the results for the Democrats:

SOUTH DAKOTA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 31% of popular vote (19 delegates)
Al Gore: 30% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 24% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)

After a strong second place showing Al Gore assured his supporters he would stay in the campaign. When you take a further look at Republican results:

SOUTH DAKOTA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 29.1% of popular vote (18 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 28.9% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 17% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 6% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 4% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Barely losing to Donald Rumsfeld, Orrin Hatch urged his supporters to continue to support him. "Without your support there's no chance at victory," Hatch bellowed. Hatch was expected to do much better than he is, but he continues to assure his fans that he'll win the primary battle.

Here are up-to-date delegate totals:

DEMOCRAT DELEGATE TOTAL (2,215 needed, including 700 super delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 111 delegates
Dale Bumpers: 58 delegates
Al Gore: 0 delegates
Jesse Jackson: 0 delegates

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE TOTAL (1,128 needed)
Donald Rumsfeld: 146 delegates
Bob Dole: 71 delegates
John Ashcroft: 23 delegates
Paul Laxalt: 20 delegates
Orrin Hatch: 0 delegates
Jack Kemp: 0 delegates

Immediate Schedule for Primaries/Caucuses:
February 24: Wyoming (Republican)
February 28: Maine (Republican/Democrat)
March 01: Alaska (Republican); Vermont (Republican/Democrat)
March 05: South Carolina (Republican); Wyoming (Democrat)

 

[NickCT]

TCF -- this is a great point in recent history and a fun AH.

That being said, I think you absolutely have to retcon Bill Clinton endorsing *Jesse Jackson* in the primaries, particularly with his colleague Dale Bumpers a viable candidate at that point.

Clinton, at this time, was the head of the DLC and expressly opposed to what he considered old-school, New Deal, Mondale-losing-in-a-landslide liberalism -- which is, of course, exactly what Jesse Jackson represents. No way Clinton endorses Jackson, even if he's the only candidate left in the race.

Of course, in a universe in which Mondale *isn't* crushed in a landslide, the DLC almost certainly has less clout within the Democratic Party, and Clinton probably has less influence -- maybe isn't even a keynoter at the '88 convention.

For similar reasons: I don't see Dale Bumpers and Al Gore as both being plausible top-tier Democratic primary candidates. Both are going to be associated with the DLC; both are southern candidates, and both are going to be running to Ferraro's right. They're courting the same voters, in other words. Moreover, those potential Bumpers/Gore voters are a distinct minority within the Democratic party as a whole -- particularly in 1988, and even more so in this TL -- and so they're likely to be strategic about their support, favoring whichever of Gore or Bumpers looks more electable.

FWIW, the New Republic endorsed Al Gore '88 in TTL back at a time when the New Republic was actually influential in Democratic decision-making circles. Of course, to most Democratic primary voters at the time, Gore was the guy who got shown up by Dee Snider....

I always thought Clinton and Jackson had good relations and in my research i didn't find anything to contradict this.

Furthermore while Bumpers and Gore do draw off the same votes I had read that there were large attempts to recruit them (especially Bumpers) into the race, so I apologize for this as well.

What i'll do
-I'll retcon Clinton's endorsement of Jackson...which didn't really give jackson an incredible boost
-i'm afraid that retconning bumpers and gore's large support would basically go against everything in the timeline so i'm going to just have gore's support virtually vanish as bumpers steals his votes because he appears the more viable candidates

THANK YOU for bringing this to my attention!

 

[NickCT]

FEBRUARY 24, 1988: HATCH WINS BIG IN WYOMING, KEMP UPSETS RUMSFELD FOR SECOND PLACE

Utah Senator Orrin Hatch won the GOP Wyoming Caucus today, a state many anticipated him to win. However the shocker came as Jack Kemp upset Donald Rumsfeld by finishing second, over the former Secretary of Defense. Here are the official results:

WYOMING REPUBLICAN CAUCUS RESULTS
Orrin Hatch: 24% of popular vote (13 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 22% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 6% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 6% of popular vote (0 delegates)

The near success of Bob Dole also proved that there is a small chance the Kansas Senator could steal the Republican nomination. In fact Vice President George Bush will be campaigning for Dole in South Carolina, Dole will join him tomorrow in the efforts to steal the state. Here are the totals when it comes to Republican delegates:

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE TOTAL (1,128 needed)
Donald Rumsfeld: 146 delegates
Bob Dole: 71 delegates
John Ashcroft: 23 delegates
Paul Laxalt: 20 delegates
Orrin Hatch: 13 delegates
Jack Kemp: 0 delegates

As Rumsfeld continues to lead he's also continuing to worry about the possibility of a divided convention (though not publicly). Rumsfeld was in South Carolina today campaigning for the delegates there. When you look at the Democrats and their campaign, Al Gore is continuing to lose much of his support to Senator Dale Bumpers. Political Analyst Roger Hark explained why, "Conservative/Moderate Democrats are looking for alternatives as Gore continues to fail to come close in the primaries and caucuses and Bumpers is a near perfect fit."

FEBRUARY 28, 1988: FERRARO TAKES MAINE BY STORM; ASHCROFT SQUEAKS OUT WIN OVER RUMSFELD

John Ashcroft was neck-and-neck with Donald Rumsfeld heading in to New Hampshire where he eventually won, but in Maine history repeated itself. Ashcroft squeaked out a win in the Main caucus by a mere 50 votes. However Ashcroft was able to take home all 22 of Maine's delegates:

MAINE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS RESULTS
John Ashcroft: 22% of popular vote (22 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 22% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)

After a strong and decisive win in New Hampshire, Geraldine Ferraro won the Maine Democratic Caucus as well:

MAINE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 45% of popular vote (19 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 24% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Al Gore: 10% of popular vote

The results from Maine show a devastating blow to Al Gore. Gore was expected to come in second or third in Maine, but a lack of momentum pulled him behind, placing him in a low fourth place, 35% behind Ferraro. Many analysts agree Gore will be forced to pull out of the race before Super Tuesday. "Jackson and Gore are wasting their time. It's a two-person race between liberal Ferraro and moderate/conservative Bumpers," said NBC's Tom Ritchie. Ritchie then discussed the Republican field, "Rumsfeld should've won Maine. It would've KILLED Ashcroft, but now the Republican nomination looks like anyone's game. Quite surprising really."

MARCH 1, 1988: FIRST DAY OF MARCH BRINGS VICTORIES FOR RUMSFELD AND FERRARO

Ferraro and a group of supporters​

First, the results from Vermont where Democratic Front Runner Geraldine Ferraro won an additional 19 delegates:

VERMONT DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 35% of popular vote (19 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 33% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 28% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Al Gore: 4% of popular vote

On the Republican side Donald Rumsfeld managed an impressive and sizable win over John Ashcroft and other contenders in the Vermont Primaries. As a result of his victory Rumsfeld gained an additional 17 delegates:

VERMONT REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 44% of popular vote (17 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 13% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 9% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 7% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 7% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Bob Dole upset Jack Kemp and Orrin Hatch by taking third place among the Vermont voters. Surprising many, Dole has continued to keep a fairly good showing among Republican voters. Next we have Republican results from Alaska:

ALASKA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 47% of popular vote (19 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 17% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 14% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 8% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 7% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 7% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Paul Laxalt surprised many by managing to grab second place in Alaska. However no one could match Donald Rumsfeld's visit to the state where he joined several state Republicans in get out the vote efforts. Now let us turn to the up-to-date Delegate Totals:

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE TOTAL (1,128 needed)
Donald Rumsfeld: 182 delegates
Bob Dole: 71 delegates
John Ashcroft: 45 delegates
Paul Laxalt: 20 delegates
Orrin Hatch: 13 delegates
Jack Kemp: 0 delegates

Rumsfeld holds a commanding lead over Bob Dole when it comes to the delegate totals, but with the new winner-takes-all format that both parties have adopted Rumsfeld will need to convince a lot more voters than he would usually need to to take victory. "Now you have to win a state. Before a close second was as good as a first place win," explained NBC's Tom Ritchie. Here are the Democratic totals:

DEMOCRAT DELEGATE TOTAL (2,215 needed, including 700 super delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 149 delegates
Dale Bumpers: 58 delegates
Al Gore: 0 delegates
Jesse Jackson: 0 delegates

Ms. Ferraro holds a large lead over Dale Bumpers which prove useful as we move closer and closer to Super Tuesday. March 5th brings us to South Carolina where we all anticipate results!

 

[NickCT]

MARCH 5, 1988: ANOTHER DOLE UPSET IN SOUTH CAROLINA AS DEMOCRATS CHOOSE SENATOR BUMPERS

Bob Dole (above) takes the state of South Carolina​

In a rather shocking turn of events, efforts by Vice President George Bush and Republican Senator and Presidential Candidate Bob Dole resulted in an upset by Senator Dole, taking South Carolina's 37 delegates away from Republican front runner Donald Rumsfeld and Missouri Governor John Ashcroft. Polls taken about a week or two ago showed a vicious battle between Rumsfeld and Ashcroft with Dole in fourth place, but with the help of Vice President Bush, Dole won the primary in South Carolina:

SOUTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Bob Dole: 21% of popular vote (37 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 13% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)

This isn't Dole's first upset. No one has forgotten his stunning performance in Iowa that took the state from Donald Rumsfeld. For the first time in a long time people are calling Bob Dole a serious candidate. In his victory speech he declared: Did I tell you we were still kicking? Yes! Did the media believe me? No! We've sent a powerful message, South Carolina. President Bob Dole won't forget the history we've made here tonight! 1988 is shaping up to be an interesting year. On the Democratic side Dale Bumpers managed to win all of South Carolina's 48 delegates:

SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Dale Bumpers: 39% of popular vote (48 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 37% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Al Gore: 9% of popular vote (0 delegates)

However there were more serious results from South Carolina. Al Gore officially ended his campaign, failing to endorse another candidate. With Al Gore out of the race, Super Tuesday becomes a whole new ball game, but could lead Bumpers to defeat Ferraro as Ferraro will likely fail to take the states Gore was predicted to win. Here's polling for Florida, Texas, and Virginia. First Democrats and then the Republicans:

Florida (146 Delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 45% of popular vote (146 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 44% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Texas (198 Delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 40% of popular vote (198 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 39% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Virginia (85 Delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 54% of popular vote (85 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 36% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)

The Republican polling numbers for Florida, Texas, and Virginia:

Florida (82 Delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 26% of popular vote (82 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 24% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 24% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 9% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 9 of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 7% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Texas (111 Delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 29% of popular vote (111 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 26% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 22% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 13% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 6% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 4% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Virginia (50 Delegates)
John Ashcroft: 29% of popular vote (50 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 28% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 28% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 4% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 1% of popular vote (0 delegates)

Geraldine Ferraro has to remain strong throughout Super Tuesday in order to come within striking distance of the nomination. An upset in Texas would all but seal the deal for Ferraro and leave her with the nomination in her pocket. If Bumpers does hold on to Texas, Ferraro has to have strong showings elsewhere to hold on to the nomination. There remains no easy path for Donald Rumsfeld, the front runner, to take the convention without an endorsement or sweep on Super Tuesday. Let's take a look at the current maps before we head in to March 8th -- Super Tuesday. The Republicans are first followed by the Democrats:

UP-TO-DATE DELEGATE TOTALS:

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE TOTAL (1,128 needed)
Donald Rumsfeld: 182 delegates
Bob Dole: 108 delegates
John Ashcroft: 45 delegates
Paul Laxalt: 20 delegates
Orrin Hatch: 13 delegates
Jack Kemp: 0 delegates

DEMOCRAT DELEGATE TOTAL (2,215 needed, including 700 super delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 149 delegates
Dale Bumpers: 106 delegates
Jesse Jackson: 0 delegates

 

[Andrew T]

Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday should be interesting in this TL.

In OTL March 1988, Dukakis was campaigning as a moderate technocrat who had engineered the "Massachusetts Miracle" and revived a slumping economy. He was up against a very weak regional candidate (Al Gore), and was also helped enormously by Jesse Jackson drawing essentially all of the black vote throughout the deep South. Thus, no real southern or moderate alternative emerged to Dukakis.

So, when Dukakis was able to squeak to victory in Texas and Florida on Super Tuesday while Gore and Jackson essentially split the other southern states pretty much down the middle, the spin was that Dukakis (who also won four other non-Southern states on Super Tuesday) was the "winner" of Super Tuesday with six victories.

ITTL, you have a much stronger regional candidate AND a much more liberal front-runner. It wouldn't surprise me if Bumpers wound up winning all 13 southern states with Ferraro winning only Maryland, Hawai'i, Massachusetts, and possibly Missouri (since Dick Gephardt doesn't run ITTL).

 

[NickCT]

Super Tuesday should be interesting in this TL.

In OTL March 1988, Dukakis was campaigning as a moderate technocrat who had engineered the "Massachusetts Miracle" and revived a slumping economy. He was up against a very weak regional candidate (Al Gore), and was also helped enormously by Jesse Jackson drawing essentially all of the black vote throughout the deep South. Thus, no real southern or moderate alternative emerged to Dukakis.

So, when Dukakis was able to squeak to victory in Texas and Florida on Super Tuesday while Gore and Jackson essentially split the other southern states pretty much down the middle, the spin was that Dukakis (who also won four other non-Southern states on Super Tuesday) was the "winner" of Super Tuesday with six victories.

ITTL, you have a much stronger regional candidate AND a much more liberal front-runner. It wouldn't surprise me if Bumpers wound up winning all 13 southern states with Ferraro winning only Maryland, Hawai'i, Massachusetts, and possibly Missouri (since Dick Gephardt doesn't run ITTL).

Super Tuesday comes tomorrow Do you have thoughts on the Republicans? I love hearing reader's predictions and feedback

 

[Andrew T]

Republicans

This is a really fun timeline for the Republicans; I think you've done a nice job of capturing the fact that Reagan in '88 stayed out of the election (much like Clinton in 2000, and possibly for the same reasons).

Bush helping Dole to victory in South Carolina is hilarious (in a very good way!) -- in OTL, Bush's negative campaign in New Hampshire torpedoed Dole's candidacy (and led to his famous growl that Bush should "stop lying about my record" -- something that took Dole more than a decade to overcome).

If Bush is backing Dole, that seems to be a pretty good sign that Dole is the institutional candidate, and the money -- god, does Bush control gobs of money at this point! -- will probably flow Dole's way. Particularly in '88, that's going to result in an awful lot of late movement towards Dole.

Based solely on his rather lackluster performance (against really tough odds) in 1996, people tend to forget that Dole was once considered a formidable campaigner and future President. In a world where he's not subjected to carpet-bombing ads as a tax-raiser in NH, he's probably even stronger at this point.

So my prediction: the GOP machine and insiders rally behind Dole and he cruises to victory.

A fun bit for some dirty trickery: Dole was one of the Republican leaders on the fight for a national holiday to honor Martin Luther King, and publicly called out Jesse Helms as an obstructionist. (He didn't quite call Helms a racist, but it was pretty close.) Might make for some fun whisper campaigns in North Carolina (and elsewhere)....

 

[historybuff]

I'm for either Rumsfeld or Hatch for the Republicans, and either Farerro or Bumpers for the Democrats.

 

[NickCT]

Well, guys, Super Tuesday is being written now

 

[NickCT]

MARCH 8, 1988: SUPER TUESDAY: DOLE NO LONGER A LONG SHOT; BUMPERS VS. FERRARO RACE FORMS; JACKSON BARELY HOLDS ON

An impressive and remarkable story: The Comeback of Bob Dole​

Republican Results:

ALABAMA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Bob Dole: 21% of popular vote (38 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 13% of popular vote (0 delegates)

ARKANSAS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Orrin Hatch: 22% of popular vote (32 delegates)
Bob Dole: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 14% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 14% of popular vote (0 delegates)

FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 26% of popular vote (82 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 13% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 7% of popular vote (0 delegates)

GEORGIA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Bob Dole: 20% of popular vote (82 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 12% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)

GEORGIA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Bob Dole: 20% of popular vote (48 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 12% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)

KENTUCKY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Orrin Hatch: 23% of popular vote (38 delegates)
Bob Dole: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ahscroft: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)

LOUISIANA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Orrin Hatch: 21% of popular vote (41 delegates)
Bob Dole: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 18% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 14% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 8% of popular vote (0 delegates)

MARYLAND REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 28% of popular vote (41 delegates)
Bob Dole: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 14% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)

MASSACHUSETTS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 30% of popular vote (52 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 25% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 20% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 8% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 7% of popular vote (0 delegates)

MISSISSIPPI REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Orrin Hatch: 27% of popular vote (31 delegates)
Bob Dole: 25% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 18% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 12% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 8% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 7% of popular vote (0 delegates)

MISSOURI REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
John Ashcroft: 32% of popular vote (49 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 23% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 17% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 12% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 9% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 7% of popular vote (0 delegates)

NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Bob Dole: 28% of popular vote (54 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 27.9% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 24.1% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 5% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 5% of popular vote (0 delegates)

OKLAHOMA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Bob Dole: 32% of popular vote (49 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 17% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 9% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 7% of popular vote (0 delegates)

RHODE ISLAND REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 26% of popular vote (21 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 15% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 7% of popular vote (0 delegates)

TENNESSEE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 23% of popular vote (45 delegates)
Bob Dole: 22% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 22% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 18% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 12% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 3% of popular vote (0 delegates)

TEXAS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 25.1% of popular vote (111 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 25% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 20.3% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 13.3% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 7.2% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 7.1% of popular vote (0 delegates)

VIRGINIA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RESULTS
John Ashcroft: 29% of popular vote (50 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 28% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Donald Rumsfeld: 28% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Bob Dole: 4% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 1% of popular vote (0 delegates)

WASHINGTON REPUBLICAN CAUCUS RESULTS
Donald Rumsfeld: 24% of popular vote (41 delegates)
Bob Dole: 23% of popular vote (0 delegates)
John Ashcroft: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Paul Laxalt: 17% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Orrin Hatch: 12% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jack Kemp: 3% of popular vote (0 delegates)

A map of the current primaries/caucses and their winners​

REPUBLICAN DELEGATE TOTAL (1,128 needed)
Donald Rumsfeld: 575 delegates
Bob Dole: 333 delegates
Orrin Hatch: 155 delegates
John Ashcroft: 136 delegates
Paul Laxalt: 20 delegates
Jack Kemp: 0 delegates

Democrat Results:

ALABAMA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Jesse Jackson: 34% of popular vote (61 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 33% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 33% of popular vote (0 delegates)

ARKANSAS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Dale Bumpers: 43% of popular vote (43 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 38% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)

FLORIDA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 46% of popular vote (146 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 43% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)

GEORGIA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Dale Bumpers: 46% of popular vote (86 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 40% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 14% of popular vote (0 delegates)

HAWAII DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 51% of popular vote (86 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 40% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 9% of popular vote (0 delegates)

IDAHO DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
Dale Bumpers: 42% of popular vote (23 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 41% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 17% of popular vote (0 delegates)

KENTUCKY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Dale Bumpers: 42% of popular vote (60 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 39% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 19% of popular vote (0 delegates)

LOUISIANA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Jesse Jackson: 40% of popular vote (71 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 39% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Geraldine Feraro: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)

MARYLAND DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 36% of popular vote (78 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 32% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 32% of popular vote (0 delegates)

MASSACHUSETTS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 49% of popular vote (109 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 40% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)

MISSISSIPPI DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Jesse Jackson: 45% of popular vote (36 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 39% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 16% of popular vote (0 delegates)

MISSOURI DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Dale Bumpers: 40% of popular vote (83 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 39% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 11% of popular vote (0 delegates)

NEVADA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 40% of popular vote (21 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 34% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 26% of popular vote (0 delegates)

NORTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Dale Bumpers: 46% of popular vote (89 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 33% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)

OKLAHOMA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Dale Bumpers: 42% of popular vote (52 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 36% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 22% of popular vote (0 delegates)

RHODE ISLAND DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 52% of popular vote (26 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 25% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 23% of popular vote (0 delegates)

TENNESSEE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Dale Bumpers: 40% of popular vote (77 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 32% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 28% of popular vote (0 delegates)

TEXAS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Dale Bumpers: 40% of popular vote (198 delegates)
Geraldine Ferraro: 39% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)

VIRGINIA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 54% of popular vote (85 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 36% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 10% of popular vote (0 delegates)

WASHINGTON DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS RESULTS
Geraldine Ferraro: 55% of popular vote (85 delegates)
Jesse Jackson: 24% of popular vote (0 delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 21% of popular vote (0 delegates)

A map of the current primaries/caucses and their winners​

DEMOCRAT DELEGATE TOTAL (2,215 needed, including 700 super delegates)
Dale Bumpers: 817 delegates
Geraldine Ferraro: 634 delegates
Jesse Jackson: 168 delegates

 

[historybuff]

I think Laxsalt, Jackson and Kemp have gotta drop out at some point.