Portuguese Southern Africa - a TL

Interesting. It seems as though France is going to eventually collapse into itself with New France reconquering its rule, but almost assuredly with a package of reforms. For now at least, New France certainly holds the colonies, Egypt included, and if France is never reconquered by New France, it's very likely that there will be a flood of immigrants from France to New France, making the state far more capable of maintaining its colonial empire. I can also see the possibility of New France bartering off some of its colonial possessions(outside of New France) to nations such as Great Britain, Spain, and Portugal in exchange for help to reestablish control over France.

I'm sort of surprised that France didn't go and ask the Portuguese for a loan before they declared bankruptcy, though.
 
So the British really need to get to rebuilding alliances...

Everything I wrote below in response to this was in ignorance of post 220 on the French Revolution.:eek::rolleyes: Of course that changes everything; and it answers the question posed by SavoyTruffle; as per OTL more or less, the House of Bourbon is suddenly Britain's bestest buddy and the French and British navies now patrol the seas almost as one. Instead of British North America clinging to Britain despite her recent relative weakness, they stay to enjoy the amazing boons of the exilic French monarchy pretty much the supplicant of Britain's empire. Suddenly Britain is the side with the big guns and the enemy is democracy gone mad--which may cause some discontent and grumbling from ATL Sam Adams, Tom Paine or even Paul Revere--but probably will distance other OTL Revolutionary-Patriot figures such as Washington, Franklin or even perhaps John Adams from these extremists. The radicals will keep quiet if they know what is good for them and anyway the times do not favor their cause. And as I suggested in my ignorance of the Bourbon monarchy's sudden fall as per OTL, I doubt the same spirit of independence has been growing in the British colonies anyway; some of the above radical individuals might show some shadow of their OTL spirit, but they too will probably be mostly moderated by the different situation BNA was in between 1760 and 1789. 1776 was probably not a notable year even in Massachusetts, let alone Virginia or the other colonies.

Let's see if any of my prior comments bears being left unstricken:


OTOH with New France so large and the French Navy a big threat to British shipping{ed: until 1789:/ed}, I daresay British North America is going to remain loyal. Despite being pathetically hemmed in compared to OTL, the population is still growing fast, I'd think, and the agricultural and industrial potential of the land they've got is tremendous. The British can still screw it up by alienating the colonists, and they might worry about the same "tail wagging dog" effect that is apparently going to break the Portuguese colonial empire up eventually--they can see the various Portuguese colonies of Brazil and southern Africa are already eclipsing the metropolis of Portugal despite the latter's expansion relative to OTL, only the different political setup has prevented the colonies from throwing off Portuguese rule already. That sends rather the wrong signal to London about how to keep BNA in hand, but if they don't adopt high-handed central rule of the North American colonies, surely the latter will surpass Britain itself in population and economic power in the foreseeable future anyway.

But as long as BNA remains loyal, it is an asset to Britain, and a big one. With the French holding them back in the west{ed: until 1789:/ed}, allied to native peoples, the imperial masters in London and the colonists on the ground in America have a common cause of displacing them, and sooner or later sheer demographics are going to favor the British in North America, unless the French colony can attract a whole lot more French colonists and at the same time, the Indians under their system also enjoy a big population surge. As they might, I suppose, if European cultivation and medicine (insofar as it was useful) cause a rise in surviving birthrates and increase in general longevity.

Of course that is a bit problematic. European high birthrates related to women having a rather poor status compared to in Native societies; those frequent and early pregnancies took a toll in womens' lives. As for European medicine, I'd say the French colony would do well to learn from the Indians as well as teach them; European medical theory was rather barbaric and misguided. Best case is if the Native peoples are free to take from the European package what appeals to them and reject what doesn't, without alienating their nominal French lords and their priests.

Anyway OTL it was demographics that steamrollered New France; it is not crazily implausible that a stronger France can assign more troops and more colonists to America and put off the day of the tipping point, but I think the British colonies have the edge in the long run.
{From this point on, it's all moot once the French king flees to America--it's a different ballgame now. In the long run perhaps a restored French monarchy ruling in France itself will once again clash with Britain, but if the British have half the wiliness they did OTL, this current situation is going to be leveraged by them to somehow or other get advantage; perhaps by the French granting access to a swathe of the territory they claim, or giving British subjects license to move west within French claims under specified conditions, or whatever. For the moment both monarchies need each other and the possibility of Hanoverian and the French Bourbon houses somehow uniting and forming a great Anglo-France is not ruled out, even. Or anyway for British North America and New France to somehow merge into a crazy sort of federation.

Whatever happens next, the game is changed.

Personally I wonder if the Bourbons will ever get control of metropolitan France again. The author does not seem to be a big fan of the OTL French Revolution, probably not as much as I am anyway, and presents it in pathological terms. But if we get an alt-Napoleon out of this, I probably will be rooting for him!:D}
 
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Of course, with the Revolution being limited to Metropolitan France and the colonies remaining in Bourbon hands that changes quite a bit.
 
Europe in 1790

Here is a map showing Europe in 1790

Europe 1790.png

Europe 1790.png
 
Nova Lusitânia, Brazil and the Empire 1750-1799

During the last fifty years of the 18th century, Nova Lusitânia would continue to expand inland as new areas were settled. The wide availability of quina (quinine) after 1750, imported from Ceylon and the Netherlands Indies, opened up new settlements to pioneers.

Inland from Mombasa, settlers began farming the highlands, growing coffee brought over from nearby Mocha in Arabia. A new town grew called São Salvador (Nairobi) and by 1800 was home to 10,000 people. In addition pyrethrum from was cultivated, originally brought from Persia, this would prove an effective pesticide. Finally in the last decade of the 18th century cotton was introduced around the lowlands surrounding what would be named Lago do Rei in 1816 (Lake Victoria).

Cotton became a major crop during this period as the first cotton textiles began to be produced in Northern Portugal and Galicia by the 1790s. The introduction of the cotton gin greatly increased the need for cotton and opened up new regions of Nova Lusitânia to plantation agriculture. Many of the new settlemements were state-sponsored schemes such as Nova Alba north of the Cunene on the Huíla Plateau where karakul sheep from Afghanistan were imported, assisting in a new profitable industry.

By the 1780s the first steam engines had been imported to Nova Lusitânia to power burgeoning textile industry south of Áurea. During the search for gold mines, large deposits of bituminous coal had been discovered and these led to the establishment of the first textile mills along the Rio Nobre (Vaal River). Under the protection of high tariffs, the textile industry here prospered as woolen goods were manufactured and exported around the empire. This was soon followed by cotton textiles in 1798. The cotton textiles industry would especially find a large market in Brazil.

Gold and diamond production continued to grow, reaching over 100 tonnes per annum by 1780. Indeed, gold production would not peak until 1850. The gold and diamond mines were nationalized by the Crown as were copper mines, meaning the state now controlled much of the economy. The copper mines of the Catanga (Katanga) region led to small scale copper industries, but more importantly found an important export market in India, displacing Dutch copper acquired in Japan.

A more tragic export was constantly increasing numbers of African slaves being exported. Millions of slaves were exported to Brazil as that colony expanded with many New Lusitanians settling in the south. This also made Nova Lusitânia expand as far north Cabo Lopes (Cape Lopez in Gabon). The densely populated region of the Great Lakes became a primary target for slave traders as they would send captives to the coasts for export to the Americas. In addition, New France would begin importing a large quantity of slaves in the 1790s with the large-scale introduction of cotton and tobacco to areas south of the Ohio River. Also, Portuguese Guinea became a major slave exporting centre as the colony expanded inland along the Casamança (Casamance) Geba, Nunes (Nunez) rivers. However, this trade was largely in the hands of Cape Verdeans.

During this period, the ever increasing amounts of gold and diamonds led the Portuguese Crown to rely more and more simply on mineral wealth for its revenues. It kept the population in Metropolitan Portugal and the colonies largely content by keeping taxation low to nonexistent and establishing subsidies to maintain price ceilings on certain foodstuffs. In addition, the landless were given paid voyages en masse, with Morocco and Australia being the newest settlement colonies.

However, the crown also sought to prevent the emergence of a powerful merchant class or bourgeoisie. It did so by establishing national shipping monopolies, mining and industrial monopolies. A form of corporatism developed that would be called "dirigismo" (guidance). Meaning the crown guided the major aspects of the economy by establishing tariffs and granting licenses to establish businesses. In return, monopolies or duopolies came to exist where profits would be ensured through state policies. The end result would be a small merchant class largely dependent on the goodwill of the Crown.

In addition, little was spent on education. Literacy levels remained low and generally Brazilians and New Lusitanians who did receive university educations did so in Metropolitan Portugal. However, with the dearth of skilled personnel there, many remained in Lisbon. To remedy the situation, large numbers of skilled foreigners were recruited to staff national enterprises or to work as engineers, architects or in the armed forces.

Another aspect of the mineral wealth was the ability to spend continually larger sums of money on the army and navy. Before 1796, no conscription existed in the Portuguese empire and as soldiers were all volunteers they were rewarded financially through payments of gold or land. After the 1750s, the Portuguese armed forces earned a reputation as a high paying prestigious career not just for Portuguese peasants, but for foreigners, with large numbers of Swiss, German and Irish men joining the Portuguese army and navy. Essentially, this was another form of wealth redistribution by the Portuguese Crown.

POPULATION 1800
Portugal – 4.8 million
Morocco – 350,000 Portuguese

Brazil – 10.5 million (6 million white; 3 million slaves; 1.5 million mixed/pardo/free persons of colour)

Nova Lusitânia 35.5 million
(25 million white; 6 million slaves; 4.5 million mixed race/pardo/free persons of colour)
 
Europe against France

Throughout 1792, the new French Republic becomes increasingly radical, imprisoning members of the clergy along with nobles and confiscating their lands. Meanwhile, in New France, King Louis XVI has established his court in Québec. Thousands of refugees have been arriving, pouring into Québec, Montréal and New Orleans. Among these, is the majority of France's military and naval officers, nobility, and high clergy. Fortunately, grain prices have increased, along with those of cod allowing the new government some revenue, in addition the king soon grants large tracts of land to nobles, giving them the opportunity to earn some income.

In addition, in August 1792, Portugal grants King Louis XVI a subsidy of 13 million livres, allowing him to maintain his navy and rebuild in army in North America. This is soon followed by a loan from the United Provinces and a subsidy from Great Britain amounting to £1.3 million, in exchange for the opening of French ports to British trade. In the meantime, the British Navy and armed forces begin rearming heavily, this provides an economic boom not only for the British Isles, but for British America as well.

In contrast, the situation in France itself borders on one of famine as food supplies are low and the government has resorted to printing paper money, creating hyperinflation. The radical government accuses the foreign powers of aiding the king and imposing a blockade on France. Austria and Aragon are their first two targets as both are ruled by Queen Marie Antoinette's nephews. Barcelona especially has become a large gathering place for émigrés plotting against the French Republic. Perhaps to distract the populace from its internal problems, the French Republic declares war on Austria and Aragon in July 1792. This leads to Prussia joining the war against the French as the Prussians hope to gain territory at the expense of France.

Initially the war goes badly for the French Republic, as most of their officers have now emigrated and their corps are disorganized. A joint Austro-Prussian force invades France in July 1792, capturing most of Flanders and by October having reached the outskirts of Paris. However, this foreign invasion leads to a uniting of the French and a "levée en masse" with over 200,000 men going to defend the city. They manage to push back the German invaders, giving the new republic a much needed morale boost.

The Prussians and Austrians now facing a guerrilla campaign decide to withdraw their men rather than face the risk of losing their armies. Meanwhile, the House of Savoy declared war on the France, invading the southern portion of the country in an attempt to recapture Toulon. However, with most of their forces tied down in North Africa, the French are able to driving them out, occupying Nice and Savoy. Further north, the French armies have not only reconquered Flanders, but have occupied most of the German lands west of the Rhine River.

In northwestern France however, and especially in Brittany a mass uprising against the republic began in September 1792 after laws were promulgated against priests who would not swear an oath to the Republic. This leads the British to send 25 ships of the line to the Channel Islands with 6,000 troops to observe the situation. These actions, along with British assistance to the royalist government in Quebec lead to a declaration of war by France in January 1793. This is followed by declarations of war against Portugal and the United Provinces in February and finally, Spain in March 1793.

In March 1793, the British occupy the French naval base at Brest, capturing what remains of the French Atlantic Fleet. This is followed by the capture of La Rochelle in May 1793 where the insurrection against the French Republic is at its strongest. The British for their part are joined by the French Royal Navy from Québec and a force of 6,000 Canadien soldiers. Brittany, Poitou and Normandy are now largely in Royalist control, forcing the government in Paris to dispatch 45,000 troops to the region.

In the Mediterranean, the French ruled Greek islands, though originally sympathetic to the revolution, turned against the anti-clerical laws. With the French Republican Navy unable to reinforce the garrisons there, they quickly surrender to the Russian Naval forces in June and July 1793. This leads to a declaration of war on Russia by the French Republic in July 1793. Even more serious is a rebellion at Toulon where the city is captured by British and Royalist forces in August of 1793.

Further south, the Portuguese Navy assists the French Royal Navy in retaking Alexandria. There the besieged French garrisons declare their oath of allegiance to King Louis XVI. However, French control of the region is largely confined to a few small cities, as much of the Nile Valley is in open rebellion against French Rule. In Syria too, the French Royalists are unable to establish control yet, as Syrian Christians have declared their loyalty to the French Republic.
 
Regarding the latest update--despite the apparently desperate position of the Republic, I'm betting that the OTL factors that allowed that beleaguered nation to turn the tables and wind up pretty much ruling the Continent for a couple decades to come into play here too; someone will fill Napoleon's boots. I don't foresee any reason for it to be any more stable or long-lasting than the OTL Empire but I also don't see why the French of the metropole should fall shorter either.

Well, OK, some reasons, having to do with the larger than OTL emigration and having both New France and at this point essentially all the old colonies of all the European great colonial powers to draw on; the New French armies are a factor that did not exist OTL and they give a place for the Old Regimeist Navy to base itself as well. Having got several footholds on French territory the reactionary coalition can really stiffen control of them with the New Worlder French.

OTOH the earlier "glorious" conquests in the Netherlands that so exceeded OTL under the earlier Louises should also give Revolutionary culture more traction in the Lowlands; if the Republicans can capture the north that deepens their resources for retaking the south and west despite local dissents.

We'll see I guess!
 
Rough translation of the latest map into V2:

BmlInMf.png


Now that most of the map is already redrawn, the work to keep it up to date is pretty minimal/doable.
 
Map

I took the map that EMT did and changed it a little to reflect what I imagine Europe, the Middle East and North Africa would look like. I didn't want to spend too much time on it, so it's a bit messy, but the large mauve coloured area is various Islamic States/Tribes.

BmlInMf.png

BmlInMf.png
 
Ah, cool, that matches more of what I expected it to be like. I was trying to stick to V2's original provinces at first, but I figure there'd be some map modding involved in this eventually. Germany though, is a bit of a mess. I'll be honest, I'm hoping a lot of them get consolidated to save creating a crapton of minors :D
 
War in the Pyrenees and Rebellions

As mentioned earlier, the French Republic declared war on both Aragon and Spain. The war began when in April 1793 Habsburg-ruled Aragon invaded Southern France with an army led by French Royalist officers. The Aragonese initially were successful against the poorly defended southern border of France, capturing Carcassonne, and finally Toulouse by March 1794. However, a siege of Montauban ended in September 1795 failed as Republican forces regained the offensive.

The Spaniards were less successful in their offensive against Bayonne. With their army tied up in Algeria and with little support from the Basque fueros, the Spanish army of 20,000 soon was forced to take a defensive position as the provinces of Guipuzcoa and Vizcaya declared themselves a Republic allied with France. By 1794, San Sebastian was in French hands. Fearing a complete invasion, in May 1796, the Spanish government sued for peace, agreeing to cede Guipuzcoa and Vizcaya to the French Republic.

Meanwhile, the port of Toulon had been handed over to the British in September 1793, as they headed the Coalition Forces in the Mediterranean. Also in the Mediterranean, the Corsicans had begun a revolt against the revolutionary government and Sardinian and Sicilian forces occupied the island in June 1794. By the summer of 1795, though the French Republican Army had enlarged to a force of 600,000 men. Beginning that autumn, they were able to take offensive, recapturing much of southern France and driving the British from Toulon. With the departure of the Coalition forces went some 200,000 refugees, who were ferried to Corsica and Mahon, with the French Royalist Ships ferrying them to New France.

Also, the French Republicans were able to regain the offensive against the Austrians and Prussians, making a peace treaty with the war-weary Prussians in January 1797, where the Prussians recognized French conquests west of the Rhine. Aragon too sued for peace, ceding Roussillon to France in February 1797. In the United Provinces, Republicans sympathetic to France had rebelled against the Stadtholder and in 1796 he fled with the entire Dutch Navy to Britain. The Batavian Republic was proclaimed as an ally of France, however the Dutch colonies were still in the hand of the stadtholder and the Dutch Navy.

Further north in Brittany, the French Republicans initiated a brutal campaign to reconquer the rebellious regions of Western France. By early 1796, the British and French Royalist Navy began by evacuating women, children, and the elderly to the island of Guernsey. The British sent large quantities of food and medical aid to prevent starvation or disease. With the fall of Saint-Malo in February of 1798, the last refugees, including some 3,000 Canadian soldiers were ferried to Jersey. In total, over 200,000 French refugees were evacuated from this region and sent to New France.
 
Portugal 1792-1799

In Portugal, Queen Maria II had been declared unfit to rule in 1792 due to her mental incapacity. Therefore, her son, João assumed the title of Prince Regent. Much more pragmatic than his mother, he reversed some of her more extreme policies, continuing with the enlightenment of his grandfather. However, the enlightenment in Portugal was overwhelmingly Catholic and royalist, and had little to do with revolution. Indeed, in Portugal as in most of Spain there was little sympathy for the French Revolution, especially due to the anti-Catholic terror.

Though Spain and Aragon had signed peace treaties with the French Republic in 1796, Portugal remained a part of the anti-Republican coalition. Portugal's navy continued to expand in size as it was felt that this was essential to the defence of the Empire. However, Portugal was finding it difficult to recruit large numbers of mercenaries for its army as it had in previous years. To that end, 60,000 colonial troops were brought to Morocco and Portugal. In Morocco, the crown sought to promote more colonisation of the recently conquered land, and 120,000 settlers were recruited from Nova Lusitânia between 1790 and 1800. A large number of these were soldiers with young families, being armed to defend their new homesteads from Berber attacks.

Around Lisbon a line of forts was built, utilizing the natural defensive capabilities of the terrain. These would be the Torres Vedras Lines, a series for fortifications and walls that were meant to make Lisbon and its environs impenetrable to invasion. Additionally, several border forts were repaired, enlarged and modernized. Although there were hopes that Portugal could withstand any invasion, plans were drawn up to evacuate the treasury, and the King, along with his court to Cabo da Boa Esperança should war reach the capital.

The war did however have some positive effects for the Portuguese economy. With the Dutch and French gone from the Indies, Portugal once again was the undisputed master of trade with the East. Also, no longer being able to import French luxury goods, the Portuguese luxury goods manufacturers boomed, selling wares not only in Portugal, but around Europe. The export of wine too boomed, leading to introduction of viticulture in Morocco. New France began importing Spanish, Portuguese and Italian wines in large quantities as an embargo largely cutoff French supplies. Finally, the introduction of potatoes and maize in Portugal and later Morocco allowed the population there to grow at a much faster rate than it had for centuries.
 
The Rise of Napoleon

Yes, I know he most likely would have been butterflied away, but I find Napoleon such an interesting character, that I thought I'd add the Corsican General to this timeline. For the lack of a better name, I am choosing the leader of France after 1799 to be a Corsican named Napoleon Bonaparte. Of course there will be different campaigns and a different outcome.

Having distinguished himself in recapturing Toulon, and later in putting down royalist uprisings in Paris, Napoleon Bonaparte was promoted as Brigadier General at the age of 24. In 1795 he was chosen to spearhead an invasion of the Savoy Kingdom in Northern Italy. After several victories and threatening Turin, the Savoys agreed to make peace with the French Republic in September 1796. As part of the peace agreement, they were to cede Savoy, Nice, Aosta and Corsica to the French Republic. However, the Savoy King only made peace so that he could buy some time and launch a counteroffensive.

With British and Austrian aid, King Charles Emanuel IV proceeded to withdraw the royal court to the island of Sardinia in October 1796, allowing him to rule his kingdom under the protection of the Allied Navies. Soon thereafter, an Austrian Army of 100,000 arrived in Italy to protect it from the French Republic. In addition, the Savoys refused to withdraw from Corsica, giving the French Republic a pretext for another invasion. Therefore in May 1797, France invaded the remnants of the Savoy Kingdom with Napoleon soon conquering Milan. However, the French were soon forced to retreat across the Po River as Sicilian and Russian troops joined the Coalition Offensive. By May of 1798, Turin had been recaptured, forcing the French on the defensive in the Alps. Throughout 1799, the French Republican Army remained on the defensive along the alps as they invaded the Swiss Confederation, further expanding their conquests.

With the war escalating, Napoleon emerged as a strong man and in 1799 would declare himself First Consul of France. He assumed dictatorial powers and in effect reversed many of the gains made by the revolution. Modelling the French Republic after the ancient Roman Republic, he had grand plans for France which included the conquest of Europe and of the French Empire. It was at that time that he would begin to formulate a plan to win back Syria, where the Russians had suppressed the Republican sympathizers along with Egypt, where Royalist French forces remained in command.
 
New France 1790-1799

In New France, the once neglected colony was thriving as never before. During the decade over 800,000 immigrants would arrive from France. Initially these were members of the nobility and clergy, but they were soon followed by large numbers of refugees from royalist areas, fleeing Republican terror. In addition, large numbers of French immigrated due to the economic downturn in France. In 1800, New France's population had reached nearly 2.5 million (10% slaves).

Some of the immigrants were skilled artisans and artists who had depended on the aristocracy for their livelihoods. Jewelers, painters, stone masons, cabinet makers and coach builders all found that at least in the years immediately after the revolution, their chances for economic success were better in New France. Due to this, it would be during this time that cities like Quebec, Montreal and New Orleans would have some of their most impressive buildings constructed.

Because of the large number of immigrants originally hailing from cities in France, most chose to settle in Quebec, Montreal or New Orleans. Quebec was transformed from a small town into a large city of over 100,000. Realizing that his sojourn in Canada would be somewhat more permanent than initially anticipated, King Louis XVI expanded the Château Saint-Louis and the Intendant's Palace as these two palaces now housed the French Court. In addition, the Queen initiated the construction of a summer palace surrounded by gardens in the Bois de Coulogne, hoping to mimic the idyll of Versailles' Petit Trianon. Other members of the nobility soon built large impressive homes called hôtels partculiers in the city.

Quebec took on the air of a European city and it impressed the large numbers of Anglo-American merchants from British America, for they now controlled a large amount of the booming export trade of New France. The king had allocated large land grants east of the Appalachians and west of the Mississippi. Landless refugees and immigrants quickly grabbed up choice bits of land and began growing grains, flax, hemp and tobacco. Additionally, the fur trade boomed as fashionable ladies at court wore large amounts of fur during the winter months.

However, the real boom came in the form of tobacco. Initially planted in Louisiana, the cash crop soon became New France's most valuable, with 170,000 bales being produced in 1799. Most of the cotton made its way from New Orleans to England. Large land grants in lower Louisiana were granted to refugee nobles from France, allowing them to rebuild their wealth (and in many cases exceed it). This led to the boom of New Orleans, where the population grew to 50,000 by the close of the century. The port grew as trade from the Mississippi River flourished. The city even acquired its own Opera House, as many of the planter aristocrats sought to recreate their new home in the image of France.

Sugarcane too became an important commodity as the plantations in Saint-Domingue took years to rebuild from the damage and looting in the early 1790s. These crops however required a large number of workers, and these came in the form of slaves, as the slave imports from Africa to Louisiana grew every year as cotton expanded.

Perhaps one of the most important exports was that of timber. The expanding British Navy required large quantities of timber, available in northern New France. It also aided the Royalist French Navy to remain a formidable force and as a lifeline to its empire. Most importantly, timber, grains, sugarcane, codfish and especially cotton helped King Louis XVI rule over a prosperous empire.

The Château de Bois de Coulogne
Rastignac.jpg

Rastignac.jpg
 
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