BlondieBC
Banned
True, but what if someone sold Taiwan the complete package of say 10 nuclear weapons plus the cruise missiles to deliver them. Bit ASB right now, but if who knows maybe in the future.
Nuclear Armed Taiwan
- Thread starter SAVORYapple
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True, but what if someone sold Taiwan the complete package of say 10 nuclear weapons plus the cruise missiles to deliver them. Bit ASB right now, but if who knows maybe in the future.
hmmm...might be an ASB topic......
we don't need to buy the cruise missiles. we have our own
Even absent the US 6th fleet, China does not now have the capability to stage an amphibious invasion of Taiwan although that may change in the not too distant future. This is a totally conventional war we are talking about. In the 60s/70s, was not much China could do if Taiwan had a nuke capability, even if ROC & PRC exploded first devices about the same time. IMHO this would, however had lots of butterflies in ROC-PRC relations, also ROC-US relations.
IMHO Israel achieved nukes absent US help, and ROC probably could as well as they had good scientific brains.
IMHO Israel achieved nukes absent US help, and ROC probably could as well as they had good scientific brains.
Cook
Banned
Prior to 1970 Nationalist China (Taiwan) occupied China’s Permanent Seat in the Security Council, which is an enormous bargaining chip in any negotiations.
Faced with similar security concerns; small internal populations surrounded by large neigbours with stated ambitions to destroy them and a politically unreliable relationship with the United States and other western powers, Taiwan, Israel and South Africa entered into negotiations in the mid 1960s on the joint development of tactical nuclear weapons, most work being conducted by Israel’s nuclear scientists at their facility in Dimona and testing being conducted in South Africa. Taiwan providing a guaranteed UN veto on any Security Council resolution against any of them.
It was only in the late 1970s, following America’s political and military withdrawal from East Asia that Taiwan announced that it had a credible nuclear deterrent of at least ten nuclear warheads…
Faced with similar security concerns; small internal populations surrounded by large neigbours with stated ambitions to destroy them and a politically unreliable relationship with the United States and other western powers, Taiwan, Israel and South Africa entered into negotiations in the mid 1960s on the joint development of tactical nuclear weapons, most work being conducted by Israel’s nuclear scientists at their facility in Dimona and testing being conducted in South Africa. Taiwan providing a guaranteed UN veto on any Security Council resolution against any of them.
It was only in the late 1970s, following America’s political and military withdrawal from East Asia that Taiwan announced that it had a credible nuclear deterrent of at least ten nuclear warheads…
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possible TL here???
possible, edge of possibility, if Chiang's son didn't abandon the program
EDIT: Taiwan's seat on the UNSC is a big bargaining chip......for israel and S.africa,
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in the late 1970s, Taiwan has already lost it's UN seats......
1) Chinese reaction to declaration: saber rattling, air raids, and announcement of Invasion. PRC isn't actually going to do any of this, since taiwan might use Nuclear weapons to decimate the invasion fleet.
2) Taiwan might not have credible delivery systems, unless israel was kind enough to provide jericho 1 missiles. Chiang is dead? now, so this might be used as a bargaining chip with China
3) U.S. might not approve, but.....
1) Chinese reaction to declaration: saber rattling, air raids, and announcement of Invasion. PRC isn't actually going to do any of this, since taiwan might use Nuclear weapons to decimate the invasion fleet.
2) Taiwan might not have credible delivery systems, unless israel was kind enough to provide jericho 1 missiles. Chiang is dead? now, so this might be used as a bargaining chip with China
3) U.S. might not approve, but.....
1) Beijing has had nuclear weapons deliverable by air since '65, and by missile since '66. (just looked it up). If Taiwan tried to play the nuclear game, there's nothing that says they'd get a chance to defend against an invasion.
2) Enough to take mainland China out of the picture? I'm sure I don't have to remind you, of all people, of how many people they have and how unreasonable they can be towards perceived threats.
3) They certainly wouldn't. At the least, Taiwan would lose US support.
1) hmmmm....so Taiwan keep's it's nuke program secret, but rumours abound about a ROC nuke.(Israel of Asia)
2) hmmm....China hurt, Taiwan a glowing, radioactive slagpile. but I think that Israel might at least provide viable IRBMs
3) so it's choosing between nukes and the U.S.
Cook
Banned
Correct, but has present and available in 1960 when any development would have had to take place.
Chinese response to a late 1970s Taiwan announcement of nuclear capability would be limited to sabre rattling and denunciations. China did not have the capability at that time to cross the Taiwan Straits in force and no-one’s going to start a war with someone just because they’ve announced that they have the ability to destroy your capital city. Especially because they’ve announced…
With the writing already on the wall, US disapproval is just another reason to have a credible independent capability.
The Chinese know there is no deterrent difference between having a few nuclear weapons and having thousands. Hence they haven’t bothered to expand their nuclear arsenal. Taiwan having nuclear warheads just puts China’s out of contention even as a threat.
Newsflash:Taipei Times
Date: 25/11/2011
In the latest saber rattling from the Mainland, the PRC has again demanded that Taiwan dismantle the two dozen or so nuclear weapons Taiwan possess. This is the 25th demand the PRC has made since Taiwan publicly announced it had possession of Nuclear weapons in 1978. Taiwan’s small nuclear deterrent, believed to be mounted on Tien Ma Missiles with a range of up to 1400km, sufficient to hit major Chinese cities such as Shanghai. Taiwan is also believed to have at least two warheads deployed on submarine based cruise missiles, with the ability to hit the Mainland Capital. It is believed that this demand is a response to a U.S. announcement earlier this month that a large arms deal package had been finalized between Taiwan and the United States. The U.S. have recently been very worried about the expanding capabilities of China’s Military……..
Date: 25/11/2011
In the latest saber rattling from the Mainland, the PRC has again demanded that Taiwan dismantle the two dozen or so nuclear weapons Taiwan possess. This is the 25th demand the PRC has made since Taiwan publicly announced it had possession of Nuclear weapons in 1978. Taiwan’s small nuclear deterrent, believed to be mounted on Tien Ma Missiles with a range of up to 1400km, sufficient to hit major Chinese cities such as Shanghai. Taiwan is also believed to have at least two warheads deployed on submarine based cruise missiles, with the ability to hit the Mainland Capital. It is believed that this demand is a response to a U.S. announcement earlier this month that a large arms deal package had been finalized between Taiwan and the United States. The U.S. have recently been very worried about the expanding capabilities of China’s Military……..
the theory of minimum deterrence. taiwan having two dozen or so warheads, each with the capability to kill hundreds of thousands of Chinese and wreck up to twenty mainland cities, will stay their hand.
I could see Taiwan in this situation actually continuing their nuclear program locally.......
the U.S. will be pissed, but they will still want to see china's influence curtailed.....somewhat.
Sumeragi
Banned
Given that the US (more like the CIA) probably had a hand on the assassination of Park Chung Hee, who was very close to the bomb, I would say that Chiang having the bomb is almost on ASB UNLESS Park was never killed and the Korean nuclear program was finished on schedule in 1980.
no, in this TL, Israel, South Africa, and Taiwan secretly formalized an alliance.
Israel provided bomb and reactor designs, South Africa Uranium and enrichment techniques (nozzle enrichment).
Taiwan's nukes (as I envision them) are basically simple plutonium implosion devices. no boosting, and no fusion weapons. each is around 20-30 kilotons each.......
Since the tripartite with Israel and South Africa has fallen apart early 1970s, Taiwan has been working by itself, with equipment and resources (uranium) imported secretly from South Africa, in violation of international sanctions. it operates several small reactors, which are actually bomb factories.
plausible TL?
Sumeragi
Banned
Well, I'm not really sure about this. Exactly how are earth are all those refining equipment going to be imported while escaping the eyes of the IAEA and the US? The main problem I see is that Taiwan was even more open in terms of trade than ROK ever was in the 1970's, and unless Taiwan by itself had substantial indigenous refining capacity (which ROK did have in the 1970's), the nuclear program wouldn't be going anywhere.
We would most likely have to start working on how the tripartite worked before approaching this. Once we do that, we might be able to go with a ROK-ROC nuclear alliance.
We would most likely have to start working on how the tripartite worked before approaching this. Once we do that, we might be able to go with a ROK-ROC nuclear alliance.
South African could have provided indigenous refining using aerodynamic nozzle enrichment......
smuggling wasn't that difficult back then. Now, with people running around like chickens when 0.0001 grams of nuclear material turns up missing.......it's different.
no, unlikely. Taiwan could have developed an indigenous capability with south african assistance only....hell, south africa HAD nuclear weapons. had enriched uranium. had local suppies of uranium ore.
and Taiwan doesn't need alot, just enough for minimum deterrence.....few dozen "simple" warheads, couple dozen kilotons each.
one answer: Mossad
with a possible Tripartate pact come some cooperation...hopefully
but still, they can't actually invade.....
Heavenly Horse? Really???
taiwan actually had such a program OTL 1990s....http://www.missilethreat.com/missilesoftheworld/id.170/missile_detail.asp
Sumeragi
Banned
Taiwan has never had the industrial background to obtain such a project. While it is true that Taiwan wouldn't lack the scientists, the light-industry centered economic development would mean that Taiwan would either need to do uncharacteristic industrialization or seek external help.
There seems to be misunderstanding about given how South Africa (and recently, DPRK) have obtained nuclear capability, it is easy for any small but determined nation to do that. It isn't. Weapon-grade enriched uranium isn't going to be moved around without getting noticed (especially from South Africa to Taiwan), and both countries have one of the world's greatest reserves of uranium (believe it or not, DPRK has 4 million tons of uranium ore) to exploit. Also, isolation forced both to retake a lot of heavy industry buildup, forming the backbone of any nuclear weapon programs.
In short, no amount of help from South Africa would give Taiwan the capabilities to refine the necessary amount of uranium or plutonium to make nuclear bombs.
Yes, but still, how are you going to get that much uranium/plutonium to produce the dozen or so bombs?
Taking all of this together, there is only one ally which Taiwan can look to, and that is ROK. Now, given Parks disdain for Chiang, things might be rough, but I find it possible for a working relation to be formed with bombs being made by 1975.