Nuclear Armed Taiwan

SAVORYapple

say that Chiang Kai Shek became very very serious about developing nuclear weapons in the early 1960s (a few years before china had real missile capability).....and they test detonate their first nuke in 1970, a few years before the Sino-American rapproachment.....

would china accept a nuclear armed taiwan up to the present?
 

Devolved

lookupshootup said:
say that Chiang Kai Shek became very very serious about developing nuclear weapons in the early 1960s (a few years before china had real missile capability).....and they test detonate their first nuke in 1970, a few years before the Sino-American rapproachment.....

would china accept a nuclear armed taiwan up to the present?
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I guess you are assuming that Chiang Kai Shek could organise anything more complex than a cocktail party!
 
Cook

Cook

Banned
Color-Copycat said:
With enough US aid...
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There is only one client state that the US has (allegedly) assistanted to develop nuclear weapons. All other western powers, Britain, France etc. had to do it entirely independently because of the strong American wish to maintain control of the keys to the car.
 

hairysamarian

lookupshootup said:
would china accept a nuclear armed taiwan up to the present?
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I doubt it. Seems to me that mainland China has accepted Taiwan's existence not only because of US support, but because Taiwan has (largely) stayed quiet. That is, they have made fewer noises about official independence than they could have and they have represented no military threat to the mainland. The simple development, let alone the actual detonation, of a nuclear weapon by Taiwan would change that. Relations would heat up very quickly and there would probably be a shooting war. In fact, I think the mainland would take that step well before Taiwan had a chance to finish a prototype, let alone explode one.

The only question is the role of the US in this. I can't see the US encouraging Taiwan to develop a bomb, or supporting them if they did it anyways, simply because it would be so destabilizing. And without US backing, they'd probably get overrun.
 

SAVORYapple

hairysamarian said:
I doubt it. Seems to me that mainland China has accepted Taiwan's existence not only because of US support, but because Taiwan has (largely) stayed quiet. That is, they have made fewer noises about official independence than they could have and they have represented no military threat to the mainland. The simple development, let alone the actual detonation, of a nuclear weapon by Taiwan would change that. Relations would heat up very quickly and there would probably be a shooting war. In fact, I think the mainland would take that step well before Taiwan had a chance to finish a prototype, let alone explode one.

The only question is the role of the US in this. I can't see the US encouraging Taiwan to develop a bomb, or supporting them if they did it anyways, simply because it would be so destabilizing. And without US backing, they'd probably get overrun.
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my timeframe for this assumes the fact that China was at this time developing it's own bomb.........
 
Cook

Cook

Banned
Have the Nationalist Chinese opt in on the (alleged) deal between South Africa and Israel.
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
I once read a technothriller where the premise was that the Taiwanese had started a secret nuclear research facility on Kerguelen in order to obtain a nuclear deterrent (this was written in the 90s and set in something like 2002...those books quickly ended up unintentional AH due to the lack of 9/11).
 

SAVORYapple

Thande said:
I once read a technothriller where the premise was that the Taiwanese had started a secret nuclear research facility on Kerguelen in order to obtain a nuclear deterrent (this was written in the 90s and set in something like 2002...those books quickly ended up unintentional AH due to the lack of 9/11).
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Taiwan cannot get nuclear weapons now....China has explicitly stated that if we start moving toward the bomb, they'll invade.......

we do, however, have cruise missiles that might be able to hit the three gorges dam and Beijing........
 

SAVORYapple

hairysamarian said:
The mainland certainly has them, yeah. But if Taiwan tried, and if Beijing got a whiff of it, I think the project would be curtailed by the war that would erupt.
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would Beijing invade?????

well, assuming it is conducted in secrecy, and China doesn't get any whiff until the first test detonation....
 

Devolved

lookupshootup said:
would Beijing invade?????

well, assuming it is conducted in secrecy, and China doesn't get any whiff until the first test detonation....
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I would assume Taiwan has more than enough pro Beijing spies to inform the Beijing government of almost everything that happens in Taipei.
 

hairysamarian

lookupshootup said:
would Beijing invade?????
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Obviously I can't answer for them, but my gut instinct is : hell yes.

well, assuming it is conducted in secrecy, and China doesn't get any whiff until the first test detonation....
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The thing about governments is, all conspiracy theories and spy novels aside, they generally stink on ice at keeping secrets. Especially big, expensive, resource-intensive ones like, well, developing nuclear weapons. I really think the secret would get out.

And the first test detonation would come a long time before a militarily viable production model was available to deter an invasion.
 

SAVORYapple

hairysamarian said:
Obviously I can't answer for them, but my gut instinct is : hell yes.



The thing about governments is, all conspiracy theories and spy novels aside, they generally stink on ice at keeping secrets. Especially big, expensive, resource-intensive ones like, well, developing nuclear weapons. I really think the secret would get out.

And the first test detonation would come a long time before a militarily viable production model was available to deter an invasion.
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so no nukes for Taiwan.....:mad::mad::mad::(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
lookupshootup said:
Taiwan cannot get nuclear weapons now....China has explicitly stated that if we start moving toward the bomb, they'll invade.......

we do, however, have cruise missiles that might be able to hit the three gorges dam and Beijing........
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That was the point, the idea was that it would remain secret until they already had the bomb (though, in practice, that would probably be impossible in real life). In the book it was scuttled when a PRC submarine tracked one of the Taiwanese resupply submarines to the base and destroyed it.
 

SAVORYapple

Thande said:
That was the point, the idea was that it would remain secret until they already had the bomb (though, in practice, that would probably be impossible in real life). In the book it was scuttled when a PRC submarine tracked one of the Taiwanese resupply submarines to the base and destroyed it.
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hmmm...very ASB.
the last thing Taiwan needs is an excuse for china to drop a nuke on our heads.....
 
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