Look to the West: To Rule in Germany
The Triune advance into Lotharingia succeeded because while it faced centralized opposition, said opposition was defeatist and low in morale. In contrast, after seizing the west bank of the Rhine and pushing across the great river, the Triunes face relatively little opposition at all. The foes of western Germany that might’ve opposed them were shattered at Wennenden, and no German prince has been able to put the pieces back together again. The main issue facing the Triunes east of the Rhine in the late 1630s are logistical support and keeping discipline amongst the troops so as to not alienate the locals.
This is, somewhat paradoxically, a problem for Henri II. His desired goal is a setup similar to that imposed on Lotharingia: complete Triune control to the Rhine River with buffer satellite states on the east bank. However nature abhors a vacuum, and the vacuum of power in central Europe creates a suction effect, making it hard for the Triunes to stop even when Henri II would wish to stop. Furthermore the fragmentation of power and de-legitimization of the major power brokers who could force a comprehensive peace settlement makes it difficult to acquire a peace. With Lotharingia, Henri II needed to talk to Albrecht III and only Albrecht III. Germany is proving vastly more complicated. In retrospect, from Henri II’s point-of-view, the 1630s have done a little too good of a job in destabilizing the Holy Roman Empire.
The main power in the Holy Roman Empire is Ottokar. In 1638 he can field, for offensive purposes, an army of 25000 infantry and 6000 cavalry, backed up by a capable and skilled field artillery train. The army is well equipped and uniformed in white coats for the foot, blue coats for the light cavalry, and green coats for the heavy cavalry. This is made possible by Silesia, one of the largest centers of production for weapons, armor, and textiles in all of Christendom. Thanks in large part to Silesia, the Bohemian economy is in relatively good shape, especially compared to its neighbors. Theodor was not able to bully Ottokar into providing loans for the Wittelsbach war effort that will never be repaid so even with ransoming his army from the Romans, Ottokar still has some coin and with the Silesian economy backing him he still has credit for loans.
That army is nowhere near enough to go toe-to-toe with the Triune field armies, which combined are nearly an order-of-magnitude bigger. But while Ottokar can’t go on the offensive against the Triunes, he is well-placed to defend himself, because notably Bohemia is on the east end of the Holy Roman Empire. The Triunes might be able to logistically support a lunge at Prague, but the key phrase is ‘might be able’. While supporting the lunge, they would have to fight through the Bohemian Forest (despite the name it’s a mountain range) where Ottokar could meet the tired and overstretched Triunes with his own field army, supported by local militias and new Polish and Hungarian allies who’ve pledged to help defend Bohemia if it is invaded by an aggressor (left unspecified but everyone but the village idiot, and probably even he as well, knows it’s referring to Henri II). In short, unlike Albrecht III, Ottokar is in relatively little (although still some) danger of Henri II toppling him off his royal throne.
Toppling him off his
royal throne, that is. The Imperial one is much more questionable. Ottokar’s respectable power base is entirely dependent on him being King of Bohemia. Being Holy Roman Emperor is entirely a paper crown. The Polish and Hungarian alliances are only pledged to defend the Kingdom of Bohemia, not to support his authority as Holy Roman Emperor. This is even with the King of Hungary who, as King of Austria as well, is one of the Princes of the Empire.
Ottokar’s legitimacy as Holy Roman Emperor is shaky. Yes, he was elected by the Imperial College, but Theodor, while insane, is very much alive, and so long as he breathes there is a question mark over Ottokar’s authority. Furthermore, despite Bohemia’s long association with the Empire, Ottokar is definitely a Bohemian (the name is a clue), and that is something that is starting to bother the German princes. After being butchered by Greeks and threatened by more foreigners in the form of Triunes and Scandinavians, said princes aren’t enamored with an overlord who seems somewhat foreign himself.
Despite this, the title of Holy Roman Emperor means a great deal to Ottokar. He did not take the title to see it turn to ash. For that reason he does not wish to sign over vast swaths to Triune control. It would diminish what he has gained. Furthermore to give up so much would be a devastating blow to his legitimacy and possibly cost him the Imperial crown, which he finds unacceptable.
That is the source of the impasse. Ottokar is willing to concede the west bank of the Rhine; that is clearly indefensible and he has to give up something. But beyond that he is not willing to go. That is not good enough for Henri. He has no interest in direct control of German lands east of the Rhine, but he wants to set up a series of vassal states (compositions and extents undetermined) to guard his eastern frontier. In addition, there is the question of compensatory lands for the west-side princes east of the Rhine. Henri wants to have a say in the determination, while Ottokar wants to decide the question himself in consultation with the appropriate princes, no Triunes present.
Triune armies crossing the Rhine fan out across the countryside, securing it. Their progress is slow to ensure that logistics hold up and for the same reason the troops are spread out, garrisoning key points. Ottokar doesn’t attack them for fear of making the war hot, while the few locals who do resist are quickly swept aside. Ottokar’s hopes are that the extended occupation will drain Henri’s resources and make him more conciliatory. Henri meanwhile takes the opportunity to do some reorganizing of the lands his soldiers occupy while the dispossessed princes put pressure on Ottokar to do something, either with the pen or the sword. By early 1639 the impasse has not yet broken, but with the victory over Lotharingia it seems almost certain that Ottokar will have to give way first. He lacks the resources for another, more active strategy.
Germany is in little position to help. The economy is in tatters, with vast loans paid to the Wittelsbachs that will never be repaid. The lack of capital stalls commerce, throwing artisans out of work through lack of paying customers. Getting new loans are impossible while efforts to raise taxes are political slug-fests. Budget shortfalls need to be made good but raising taxes on already struggling businesses hardly helps. Furthermore there are rows about the issue of tax exemptions, since many groups are exempt or pay reduced dues on various taxes, increasing the burden on everyone else. Naturally those with entrenched interests are not willing to give them up for the common good. The smaller states, with the exception of the big Free Cities, are the most affected, but practically all of the princely states suffer these issues to some extent.
The most movement is in the north, where the aggressor against the Holy Roman Empire is Peter II of Scandinavia, brother-in-law to Henri II (Peter is married to Henri’s sister) and a decidedly less formidable opponent. While Peter has overrun Schleswig-Holstein and some more territory further south, the stubborn resistance of the great cities of Hamburg, Bremen, and Lubeck, backed by the Pomeranians, has stalled further advance.
By 1638 some of the economic crises in the larger states of eastern Germany have declined a bit, helped by 1637 being a decent harvest. Thus Ottokar is prepared to be bolder. A Bohemian army, reinforced by contingents from Saxony (where Ottokar is now Duke), Brandenburg, and Pomerania, attack the Scandinavians at their siege of Bremen. The Scandinavians are utterly routed and sent flying back into Holstein.
Further pursuit is impossible because word then arrives that Henri II, in response to the defeat of Peter II, has sent an army to attack Bremen. The Bohemians wheel back south and the two armies face off against each other for a fortnight before the Triunes withdraw. Henri didn’t want a costly battle, even if it was a victory, just to draw away the Bohemians. At the same time Triune forces march into Wurzburg and western Bavaria. They withdraw after a few weeks, extracting contributions from the countryside. These were not offensives, just demonstrations, but Ottokar catches the point. Although he has the strength to pummel the Scandinavians, he can’t actually do so without the Triunes coming and sideswiping him.
Despite this, Ottokar does manage to score another win against the Scandinavians, sponsoring and supplying a revolt of the Dithmarschen. They successfully expel the Scandinavian occupiers and re-establish their peasant republic in their North Sea marsh homeland, which had been destroyed by the Scandinavians (after multiple failed attempts) in 1605. His patronage of the Dithmarschen is an interesting note at this time, especially since the 1638 campaign against the Scandinavians deliberately involves Ottokar avoiding doing anything about the Ravens’ Rebellion.
This is not because he has sympathy for peasant uprisings. Rare would be the monarch that did. However the Dithmarschen have history and precedent behind them. The Ravens’ Rebellion doesn’t have that, but it is a hornet’s nest. As Ottokar crudely puts it “let Henri deal with a group of birds that is called a murder and get bit in the cock for his trouble. I could use the entertainment.”