That's if we assume the same circumstances of the third republic happen, i'm not very secure that the ammendment alone would stop the PoO if they get enough votes. As for the Montagnards sure but their idea of republic is more radical than what bourgeios/conservative republicans want, it's this dispute that weakens the state. On this regard i could be wrong but the moderates seemed more willing to tolerate a Bonaparte than a Montagnard republic so idk how plausible a "grand republican alliance" against restoration of bourbons/orleans is.
WI: The Second French Republic survives
- Thread starter EasternRomanEmpire
- Start date
We can imagine that the coup d'état fails - the possibilities are slim but not non-existent: Louis-Napoleon goes into exile and the conservative national assembly takes charge of the executive in forms similar to those inherent at the beginning of the Third Republic.
The attacks carried out by the Party of Order on universal suffrage may lead one to believe that it will seek to prorogue its legislature given that the presidential office has lost all legitimacy, leaving it alone in power. This grouping is heterogeneous but with the successive failures of the Republic will confirm the takeover of the monarchist tendency - the Duke of Joinville, François d'Orléans, was present to become candidate of the party of the Order after the mandate of L-N. A "quiet" restoration can be imagined to converge with the principles of the Count of Chambord, especially since the Orléans were quick to dynastic fusion (except the Ducesse of Orléans, who defended the rights of Louis-Philippe II).
My feeling is that this republic is doomed because the centrist right-wing actors have not converted to republicanism, as evidenced by the person of Adolphe Thiers. The Republicans are themselves very divided (as usual) but the Republican ranks are even more in the minority while the conservatives are, unlike in 1870, not discredited by the geo-political context.
He is the embodiment of the adage: “in politics, you never die”
So the next step for him is to do as he did before, defender of French national and imperial pride in Europe, even playing the virile protector of the Republic if the monarchy is restored in France (in the sense that he sought to protect the republic facing the coup d'état of the monarchist assembly, speech used in OTL to justify its own coup).
I don't have an opinion, I don't know the matter but a priori there will be no Crimean War like OTL obviously.
If Damascus doesnt get resolved as OTL but goes fully to trial, could Thiers backing Ratti-Menton screw him so badly, his party and himself can never recover? Or more generally any of the crises that IOTL came close to toppling his Second Republic governments be pushed further than IOTL to not only topple him but utterly discredit him and his party?
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I didn't know this existed so thank you for shedding light on it. But it is of no consequence given that it was never mentioned in the research I did on Thiers (perhaps it is me who is misunderstood).
the more pertinent fact which is due to my lack of research is that it predates the Second Republic occurring in 1840. My source linking Thiers to it was Sam Aronow so take it with a grain or two of salt
Im going to say no. Reason(someone with better knowledge please correct me) Many Savoyard intellectuals are right wing(De Maistre Veuillot) but OTL Savoy and Nice were recovered in a deal with Cavour, a Republican. So do we have a monarchist with a desire to cloak themselves in Republican rhetoric in this France?
Any POD after the 1848 Presidential Election is too late anyway.
Unless, he and all other royal pretenders (Chambord, Joinville…) are banned from running for any political offices in 1848. Or, just have the government arrest him, then toss him in the Seine and make him disappear.
Actually they had enough votes to block the Party of Order to change Constitution if they did not launch a failed insurrection over Louis Napoleon’s actions against the Roman Republic (note that the same troops used to restore the Pope were originally ordered to support the Roman Republic by the previous government before LN became President).
Plus, 1849 legislative elections might have gone differently (even if slightly differently) under a Cavaignac Presidency.
The problem is that without LN the occupation of Rome likely would have never happened. With a French intervention in favour of the revolutionaries, the situation in Italy would have been very different and Savoy might not even be the one that unifies Italy.
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Andorra never tried to abolish the principality while Spain was a republic in OTL, why would this change that? Absorption of Andorra seems likelier IMO.