WI: Russia doesn't withdrawal from the Seven Years War

[Mirza Khan]

In 1762, the nations of Europe had been at war for six years, with an alliance led by France and the Hapsburgs fighting a coaltion led by Britain and Prussia. Russia, on the French-Hapsburg side, had scored several victories against Prussia, which was facing total defeat.

Then, in an event that would probably belong in the ASB forum if it hadn't actually happened, Empress Elizabeth of Russia died and was succeeded by Peter III, who was both a great admirer of Prussia and probably mentally unstable. Tsar Peter immediately signed a peace treaty with Prussia, which was able to recover and commit to fighting its other enemies. The war ended in a stalemate.

So, does anyone have thoughts on how history would have gone if Empress Elizabeth had lived a few more years, giving Russia the opportunity to properly defeat Prussia? Could Russia have crippled Prussia enough to make it loose its status as a great power, and would it have been able to recover? How would German unification proceed with a weaker Prussia? What would be the effects on the rest of the war, particularly North America and India?

 

[aktarian]

Well, if Russia stays in the fight and Prussia looses then Prussia would be reduced to whatt hey were in the start. That is Brandenburg. Russia would grab East Prussia, others would grab what they could. Silesia to Austria, not sure what France would get.

But I wouldn't give Russia too much credit. True, they had tough troops and lots of them but what hampered them was lack of logistic support. They simply couldn't support such large body of troops far from home. Plus often russian comamnders simply couldn't be arsed to move and actually do something and when they did they moved slowly. using different calendar didn't help either.

Russia dropping out was important event but them staying in doesn't mean great victory for anti-Prussian forces by default.

 

[Admiral Matt]

I don't know, the Russians were occupying better than half the country. I'd certainly say that Prussia - barely coming out alive OTL - would be stretched to survive with Austria and Russia together occupying most of the country. Their army was almost entirely gone, and was supporting itself more from the occupation of Saxony than the actual home country.

Unless there's another miracle, or Britain sues for peace to prevent utter ruin, the country is done. Even in a negotiated peace, with Britain handing back colonies to salvage their ally, there are likely to be territorial losses.

 

[stevep]

Guys

Prussia would have almost certainly gone down. Not be totally destroyed but significantly reduced. Austria would have regained Silesia which would have had a big impact. [A markedly weaker Prussia and Bohemia even more of a powerhouse but also with a markedly stronger German element]. I remember reading somewhere that Russia was planning to seize E Prussia and trade that to Poland for the Courtland region. As such depending on developments Brandenburg might have got both parts of Prussia later on as part of a partition but probably less of Poland proper. You might also see Saxony, which had been roughly treated by Prussia, also gaining some land say?

It would depend on the Prussian reaction as to how things went from there. A resentful and militaristic Prussia might become a close ally of an early French republic - presuming the collapse of the Bourbon monarchy still occurs. Or it might see social reform possibly going along the 1815 path with less military bias. Either way its unlikely to be the centre for German power but you can never be sure.

Steve

 

[RGB]

But I wouldn't give Russia too much credit. True, they had tough troops and lots of them but what hampered them was lack of logistic support. They simply couldn't support such large body of troops far from home. Plus often russian comamnders simply couldn't be arsed to move and actually do something and when they did they moved slowly. using different calendar didn't help either.

They did a hell of a lot better than everyone else involved, and even if they couldn't get much more into the theatre, at that point the Prussians were completely unable to get what the Russians had in the theatre, out of it.

If Russia stays in the war and demands and appropriate peace, Prussia is finished as a rising power. The Russians don't even have to do much more than just keep sitting on what they already have.

 

[Prem_Rack]

Prussia would have almost certainly gone down. Not be totally destroyed but significantly reduced. Austria would have regained Silesia which would have had a big impact. [A markedly weaker Prussia and Bohemia even more of a powerhouse but also with a markedly stronger German element]. I remember reading somewhere that Russia was planning to seize E Prussia and trade that to Poland for the Courtland region. As such depending on developments Brandenburg might have got both parts of Prussia later on as part of a partition but probably less of Poland proper. You might also see Saxony, which had been roughly treated by Prussia, also gaining some land say?

Would the partitions still happen in that scenario? AFAIK the power-hungry Prussia was the main instigator. I see little reason for Russia and Austria to cooperate with a crippled Brandenburg.

 

[stevep]

Would the partitions still happen in that scenario? AFAIK the power-hungry Prussia was the main instigator. I see little reason for Russia and Austria to cooperate with a crippled Brandenburg.

Prem_Rack

Poland, barring solution to its internal political problems, is still going to be weak and vulnerable. In fact from what I remember reading it was attempts to reform the constitution that prompted Russian intervention to 'protect the constitution' i.e. keep it weak.

I think Russia was at least as eager as Prussia for the partition and having lost so much in the 7 years war it would have an incentive to seek to get E Prussia back and make gains elsewhere if it could. Think it was only Austria which showed some reluctance and they didn't take part in the 2nd of the three partitions if I remember correctly. At the same time Russia would also want to push its borders westward. Hence still a good chance for partition I fear.

Steve

 

[Alex Richards]

Yeah, the partitions may still go ahead, but with East Prussia forming the Prussian 1st Partition, the old Prussian 1st Partition becoming the Prussian Second Partion, and Thorn and Posen becoming the Prussian 3rd Partition (possibly the same boundaries as OTL's 2nd, but likely without the southern bit bordering Silesia). Austria would get the southern part of the old Prussian Third Partition, and likely the southern chunk of the second in TTL's Third Partition (as OTL, Austria originally dosen't want more of poland, Prussia's expansion to the borders of Silesia changes their opinion). Russia would get all her OTL lands, plus the remainder of the OTL Prussian Third Partition, and possibly the northern Chunk of the Austrian third Partition.

Hang on, I'll get a map sorted.

 

[Blackadder mk 2]

I think Britain will sell Prussia down the river and maybe get the OTL treaty for itself but maybe without some Caribbean islands. But the American Revolution might be affected as Prussia helped train the militia which later became the revolutionary army so maybe it fails.

 

[Alex Richards]

OK, here's the idea with the Partitions. Russia takes more in the Second, and gets Warsaw in the Third, while Austria ends up with less near Warsaw, and more south of Poznan. Note Danzig should be in the Prussian third Partition.

 

[CurlyGangster]

I think Britain will sell Prussia down the river and maybe get the OTL treaty for itself but maybe without some Caribbean islands. But the American Revolution might be affected as Prussia helped train the militia which later became the revolutionary army so maybe it fails.

A certain former Prussian officer by the name of Freidrich Wilhelm von Steuben helped train the Continental Army in modern tactics, but Prussia itself wasn't involved.

If Prussia crumbles and the British sell them out (which the British kind of did in IOTL), you actually may see Prussian Officers going to aid the Colonists to get revenge on the traitorous British in the later American Revolution. They may also leave the Prussian Army and fight for the Americans. You would also see a more powerful Spain and France as a result. However the entire Revolution itself may be butterflied away as a result of the outcome of the Seven Years War.

However, in the Seven Years War, the strategy for the French and their allies was to win in Europe and use that to overwrite Colonial losses. While the British was to let the Prussians handle Europe while they siezed French and Spanish Colonies. If the Prussian lose Europe, the British have a much weaker hand at the negotiating table with the French and Spanish.

 

[Mirza Khan]

Would Prussia be strong enough to participate in the partitions though, if they were cut down to just Brandenburg and Pommerainia? Especially if Saxony or another German state tried to prevent them from doing so?

I don't see TTL "Prussia" (well, Brandenburg, since it doesn't have Prussia proper anymore) ever becoming anything other than a midrange power, on the level with say, Bavaria.

Other things to think about:
-Likely French and Austrian demands, beyond pieces of Prussia (since they will be in a better position to get them)
-How the peace treaty deals with India
-The settlement in the Americas (since Quebec has already fallen, I can imagine the French trading it away for concessions in the Caribbean or somewhere else-they never really cared too much about the place)

 

[I Blame Communism]

Prem_Rack

Poland, barring solution to its internal political problems, is still going to be weak and vulnerable. In fact from what I remember reading it was attempts to reform the constitution that prompted Russian intervention to 'protect the constitution' i.e. keep it weak.

I think Russia was at least as eager as Prussia for the partition and having lost so much in the 7 years war it would have an incentive to seek to get E Prussia back and make gains elsewhere if it could. Think it was only Austria which showed some reluctance and they didn't take part in the 2nd of the three partitions if I remember correctly. At the same time Russia would also want to push its borders westward. Hence still a good chance for partition I fear.

Steve

The partitions were quite another matter from "upholding the liberties", though. When Russia could invade Poland pretty much at will, it was obviously in Russia's interests to keep it intact. The first partition was basically a compensation to the other parties involved for the Russian gain in the Crimea.

Without Prussia, partition is indeed unlikely; but that doesn't mean Poland's problems are all solved. It's going to be pretty well a wholly owned subsidiary of Russia for a while, and any reform will be an uphill struggle.

 

[Gonzaga]

What would happen to the Prussian territories in the West (Cleves, Mark, Berg, Ostfriesland)? They would be taken too, or Brandenburg would keep them?

 

[stevep]

A certain former Prussian officer by the name of Freidrich Wilhelm von Steuben helped train the Continental Army in modern tactics, but Prussia itself wasn't involved.

If Prussia crumbles and the British sell them out (which the British kind of did in IOTL), you actually may see Prussian Officers going to aid the Colonists to get revenge on the traitorous British in the later American Revolution. They may also leave the Prussian Army and fight for the Americans. You would also see a more powerful Spain and France as a result. However the entire Revolution itself may be butterflied away as a result of the outcome of the Seven Years War.

Very true. After the fall of Pitt's government the British rather gave up on Prussia, which is even more likely to occur if its so heavily defeated, but was short sighted and disastrous. The alliance was later reformed when Pitt came back into power but may not be ITTL if Prussia is that much weaker. Might see an attempt to ally with Austria but difficult with the marriage link between France and Austria, at least until the revolution breaks out.

However, in the Seven Years War, the strategy for the French and their allies was to win in Europe and use that to overwrite Colonial losses. While the British was to let the Prussians handle Europe while they siezed French and Spanish Colonies. If the Prussian lose Europe, the British have a much weaker hand at the negotiating table with the French and Spanish.

Britain maintained an army in western Germany and subsidised other allies there to seek to cover Hanover and the western flank of Prussia. However there did seem to be a desire to turn their back on Europe as compared to the highly successful colonial campaigns. This and the sheer degree of British successes, despite the returning of so many gains, left Britain isolated when the next crisis came.

In this TL, with Prussia considerably weakened it would depend on what balance of power developed in Europe. Britain, given its gains and the heavy losses inflicted on the Bourbon powers wouldn't really have anything to fear from them if forced to fight on alone. However, as the American revolutionary war showed a France not distracted by continental commitments was a lot more dangerous.

Steve

 

[Prem_Rack]

The partitions were quite another matter from "upholding the liberties", though. When Russia could invade Poland pretty much at will, it was obviously in Russia's interests to keep it intact. The first partition was basically a compensation to the other parties involved for the Russian gain in the Crimea.

Without Prussia, partition is indeed unlikely; but that doesn't mean Poland's problems are all solved. It's going to be pretty well a wholly owned subsidiary of Russia for a while, and any reform will be an uphill struggle.

Well said.
There was a big difference between the first partitions and the other two. The latter were indeed based on the fear of PLC reforming itself and turning into an ally of Revolutionary France;
However, the first partition was different. The official justification for it were the actions of rebels calling themselves the Confederacy of Bar, but they were fighting against the official Polish government. While Stanislaw Augustus was enacting some moderate reforms, he was still a Russian puppet at this point. Russia was gaining nothing from giving pieces of Poland to other countries. The idea that they would still went with it and shared with a country they utterly crushed and humiliated just 10 years earlier seems rather ridiculous to me.
I postulate that at the very least, the first partition at it historical date and in historical shape is not going to happen. Some later deals might be possible, but it's doubtful any of them would involve Prussia.

 

[Mirza Khan]

What would happen to the Prussian territories in the West (Cleves, Mark, Berg, Ostfriesland)? They would be taken too, or Brandenburg would keep them?

Maybe Austria? They could be added to the Austrian Netherlands.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Maybe Austria? They could be added to the Austrian Netherlands.

wEll perhaps given that they only got back what they had only just lost and they hadn't really gained anything, but I'm thinking more to an Austrian or French Ally in Germany...Saxony perhaps could get some to compensate for the occupation.

P-L will not be partitioned. Brandenburg would only be a junior player and definitely not entitled to the same compensation nor capable of effecting their own goals without the aid of the other two. Since its essentially a Russian client and the Austrians were only interested because the other two would have went without them anyway...

So Russia and Austria instead spring their plans against the Turk instead, which they had intended before the Prussians brought their proposal.

Reform might still occur incrementally but it will be under the watchful eye of the Czarina.

events in the N. Am will likely return to the status quo ante bellum as once Prussia is out Britain may choose to stand on its own but Hannover would be hard pressed and likely occupied. Not to mention that once that occurs if the British don't concede to French/Spanish terms they will find themselves bearing the full brunt of the French and Spanish. The RN is formidable but can't stand a long term commitment from France and Spain unoccupied by continental events. The possibility exists that many perhaps even all of the colonial gains could be undone and Hannover lost to boot...What do the British do then when the Fr/Sp come asking for substantial concessions to make peace . Since the possibility is real..If the FR/Sp ask for status quo ante bellum with perhaps minor concessions They are probably going to jump at it.

That changes some of the fundamentals of the ARW and The FR but not all of them. The American grievances ran deep but the continued presence of the French in the interior probably means that more will be in the loyalist camp at the start and the Fr. will be hesitant regarding the patriots if they are not perceived as a viable military as well as political force. There may not be a DOI in 1776 but perhaps movement towards some kind of negotiated settlement. the French will be in a better position late 1780's and may not have to call the Estates, at least not then. Reform in the western monarchies( France/Spain/Port/Br even Scandinavia and some of the German and Italian duchies/Kdms) is going to come at some point

 

[stevep]

wEll perhaps given that they only got back what they had only just lost and they hadn't really gained anything, but I'm thinking more to an Austrian or French Ally in Germany...Saxony perhaps could get some to compensate for the occupation.

P-L will not be partitioned. Brandenburg would only be a junior player and definitely not entitled to the same compensation nor capable of effecting their own goals without the aid of the other two. Since its essentially a Russian client and the Austrians were only interested because the other two would have went without them anyway...

So Russia and Austria instead spring their plans against the Turk instead, which they had intended before the Prussians brought their proposal.

Interesting and possible. I hadn't realised that Prussia was the main force behind the 1st partition. In that case Poland might survive for a while longer. Its still going to face serious problems as Russian power will continue to grow and it will oppose reforms. If France falls apart then Russia will tighten its grip further as Austria and Prussia will be involved in action further west, although with a weakened and resentful Prussia possibly not on the same side.

A new joint attack against the Ottomans could have a lot of butterflies. Both sides would have problems of overstretch and also possibly mean it takes their eyes off more important events in western Europe.

Reform might still occur incrementally but it will be under the watchful eye of the Czarina.

I presume you're talking about Poland here but possibly also about Prussia?

events in the N. Am will likely return to the status quo ante bellum as once Prussia is out Britain may choose to stand on its own but Hannover would be hard pressed and likely occupied. Not to mention that once that occurs if the British don't concede to French/Spanish terms they will find themselves bearing the full brunt of the French and Spanish. The RN is formidable but can't stand a long term commitment from France and Spain unoccupied by continental events. The possibility exists that many perhaps even all of the colonial gains could be undone and Hannover lost to boot...What do the British do then when the Fr/Sp come asking for substantial concessions to make peace . Since the possibility is real..If the FR/Sp ask for status quo ante bellum with perhaps minor concessions They are probably going to jump at it.

That changes some of the fundamentals of the ARW and The FR but not all of them. The American grievances ran deep but the continued presence of the French in the interior probably means that more will be in the loyalist camp at the start and the Fr. will be hesitant regarding the patriots if they are not perceived as a viable military as well as political force. There may not be a DOI in 1776 but perhaps movement towards some kind of negotiated settlement. the French will be in a better position late 1780's and may not have to call the Estates, at least not then. Reform in the western monarchies( France/Spain/Port/Br even Scandinavia and some of the German and Italian duchies/Kdms) is going to come at some point

Here I would have to disagree. For this war the Bourbon powers have no real chance. The RN is so dominant after 1759 and their economies are also gravely weakened. Furthermore we now have the young George III on the throne who identified far more with Britain than with Hanover. As such the British hand is very strong. [Also if the French seek to permanently occupy Hanover they are going to upset a hell of a lot of people]

I would expect something like the OTL settlement, with Britain giving back most of its gains, but keeping possibly a few more than it did historically. Taking Canada and returning the islands may not have been the best option, for the reason you mention but it seemed the way at the time and it was supported by the existing British plantation holders, who didn't want to compete with the captured French colonies. The war might last a little longer and see some more British gains.

The danger as I say would be in the next war when Britain might become even more isolated and complacent. France and Spain won a pyrrhic victory in 1777-83 and it could possibly be even worse under those circumstances.

In terms of France its finances are in such a mess that it makes today's Britain and US look orderly and competent. Hence even without a new war, which is likely at some time or another the degree of incompetence and corruption coupled with the already bad reputation of the French for debt is likely to mean changes will be required at some point and the estates call. It might not follow the same path but some clash with the old order is likely and the latter doesn't seem to be intelligent enough to modify its stance.

Steve

 

[Mirza Khan]

wEll perhaps given that they only got back what they had only just lost and they hadn't really gained anything, but I'm thinking more to an Austrian or French Ally in Germany...Saxony perhaps could get some to compensate for the occupation.

P-L will not be partitioned. Brandenburg would only be a junior player and definitely not entitled to the same compensation nor capable of effecting their own goals without the aid of the other two. Since its essentially a Russian client and the Austrians were only interested because the other two would have went without them anyway...

So Russia and Austria instead spring their plans against the Turk instead, which they had intended before the Prussians brought their proposal.

Reform might still occur incrementally but it will be under the watchful eye of the Czarina.

events in the N. Am will likely return to the status quo ante bellum as once Prussia is out Britain may choose to stand on its own but Hannover would be hard pressed and likely occupied. Not to mention that once that occurs if the British don't concede to French/Spanish terms they will find themselves bearing the full brunt of the French and Spanish. The RN is formidable but can't stand a long term commitment from France and Spain unoccupied by continental events. The possibility exists that many perhaps even all of the colonial gains could be undone and Hannover lost to boot...What do the British do then when the Fr/Sp come asking for substantial concessions to make peace . Since the possibility is real..If the FR/Sp ask for status quo ante bellum with perhaps minor concessions They are probably going to jump at it.

That changes some of the fundamentals of the ARW and The FR but not all of them. The American grievances ran deep but the continued presence of the French in the interior probably means that more will be in the loyalist camp at the start and the Fr. will be hesitant regarding the patriots if they are not perceived as a viable military as well as political force. There may not be a DOI in 1776 but perhaps movement towards some kind of negotiated settlement. the French will be in a better position late 1780's and may not have to call the Estates, at least not then. Reform in the western monarchies( France/Spain/Port/Br even Scandinavia and some of the German and Italian duchies/Kdms) is going to come at some point

I was actually thinking that Saxony might get the Duchy of Magdeburg-it would be contigious with Saxony's main territory, and a significant addition to it.

As for the revolution, I think Canada and Louisiana have already been conquered by this point, and the French never really cared about them (remember Voltaire's "A few acres of snow"). Like I said earlier, I think the French might let the British keep the place in exchange for a sugar island or two in the Caribbean.

Another thing to think about-how would the French crown's finances be affected by this. IIRC they had been loosing money since Louis XIV, so some kind of reconing is a matter of time.