WI: More Successful Red Wave

[Kaiser Tito]

I'm not sure about the exact POD but say the Great war drags on for another year causing mass discontent with successful revolutions in Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, Ireland, Spain, Finland, Sweden, and Bulgaria. Further revolutions occur in Argentina, South Africa, and Persia. The Communist nations succeed in toppling Romania and In 1926 the UK falls to the General Strike.

What happens now that the map of the world has a lot more red on it? Does the US become more isolationist or interventionist? Would France also be toppled by the workers or would it fall to fascism? Could Communist Germany reunite with still Capitalist Austria? What happens in the remaining capitalist nations in Western and Southern Europe?

 

[Kaiser Tito]

I'm not sure about the exact POD but say the Great war drags on for another year causing mass discontent with successful revolutions in Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, Ireland, Spain, Finland, Sweden, and Bulgaria. Further revolutions occur in Argentina, South Africa, and Persia. The Communist nations succeed in toppling Romania and In 1926 the UK falls to the General Strike.

What happens now that the map of the world has a lot more red on it? Does the US become more isolationist or interventionist? Would France also be toppled by the workers or would it fall to fascism? Could Communist Germany reunite with still Capitalist Austria? What happens in the remaining capitalist nations in Western and Southern Europe?

Bumping because I really want to see how the few capitalist holdouts in Europe respond.

 

[Falecius]

A couple of these are very unrealistic: Ireland is extremely unlikely to turn Communist in the twenties, Iran makes marginally more sense but probably less unlikely later.

 

[CalBear]

Bumping because I really want to see how the few capitalist holdouts in Europe respond.

Warning because we really don't want to see low/no content bumps.

 

[Kaiser Tito]

Warning because we really don't want to see low/no content bumps.

What was low content about the original post? I thought I was pretty thorough in setting up the scenario with legitimate questions about the aftermath.

 

[garfieldleifrag]

The specific set of countries here seems pretty weird IMO. The countries most likely to go communist would be Germany, Italy, and maybe Spain. For Germany maybe have the Freikorps immediately try to overthrow the government in December 1918 or so, so the government is forced to crack down on them while relatively tolerating the far left (similar to the Kornilov affair in OTL Russia).

 

[CalBear]

What was low content about the original post? I thought I was pretty thorough in setting up the scenario with legitimate questions about the aftermath.

I'm talking about the Bump, as I suspect you are aware.

Not a battle you want to engage in.

 

[CountDVB]

I was actually discussing something like this with my brother-in-law, though mainly where the US never intervenes so the war drags on:

With the war continuing, there would likely be a communist revolution in Germany by Summer 1919 or so because of the low food supplies and so on. Combine that with decreasing morale and potential assistance from Lenin (who would likely be able to reinforce hold sooner because the "Whites" would be even weaker) would lead to the Germans revolting and overthrowing the monarchy. Austria may be subjugated to this too if annexed by Germany, but they may refuse due to the Spartakist sbeing in charge,

France would likely feel the pinch and they with Britain may be forced to try and take colonial troops to the field. It would be last resort because it would spurn large backlash from the colonial nations and would try and use this either for mroe autonomy or greater revolt. France would be interesting since they're the main driving force of the Entente for this. Perhaps the greater slog and the potentials for a white peace and so on would spurn the the French reds to take over. If the colonial troops were involved, they could arrange a deal that would see greater autonomy for them, perhaps like the British dominion system for this.

The British would not get redded, but they would be forced to make a lot of concessions. I suspect the Dominion of India could become pretty plausible here if forced to rely on indian troops and being in a weak show though unknown how things would go for them in Africa.

If France and Germany do go red, this would cause a chain reaction though over time. France would likely help the Spanish Republicans maintain their hold in Spain and restrict the influence of the Catholic church or at least back clergymen sympathetic to them.

I don't see many other nations becoming swept in the red tide yet though big names like France, Germany and Russia would worry alot of nations and likely result in crackdowns and authoritarian measures over in other nations. It also poses significant other changes; Britain would be too weak to try and enforce its claims on the Ottomans and France likely be too busy. This likely mean the Ottomans could hold itself somewhat while the Arabs try and figure something out.

A second red tide I think would occur once the Great Depression hits and gien how the red nations would be somewhat cut off from the others, it likely means they won't eb affected I think while everyone else will

 

[Kaiser Tito]

The specific set of countries here seems pretty weird IMO. The countries most likely to go communist would be Germany, Italy, and maybe Spain. For Germany maybe have the Freikorps immediately try to overthrow the government in December 1918 or so, so the government is forced to crack down on them while relatively tolerating the far left (similar to the Kornilov affair in OTL Russia).

I thought about Italy but I figured that the communist movement there was too weak to win out against the blackshirts.

I'm talking about the Bump, as I suspect you are aware.

Not a battle you want to engage in.

I wasn't aware the first time but thankyou for clarifying.

 

[Alanith]

This is... an extremely strange set of countries to be revolting. Some of them aren't even involved in the war to begin with, and I find myself extremely doubting how successful a communist revolt can be in certain countries that Don't even exist yet. Like, Argentina and Sweden? Why are they revolting? How is Ireland maintaining a successful revolution for longer then it takes a British corps to land in Dublin?

 

[TheSwedishHistorian]

I don't know how to handle your scenario but as for the different countries you mentioned there could be a couple of things that could happen.

As for Sweden, the communists were never going to take power in Sweden as things were far too stable to allow for a communist takeover and they only amounted at their peak in 1944 to 10.4% There could however be some Finlandisation or soft influence from a communist party that is better set to influence policy.
Speaking roughly there are 2 big things that could have been different. A lack of a communist split off Inside the communist party SKP in 1929 when Karl Kilbom and most of the members were expelled from the Comintern, and several members left the party. Kilbom, together with Nils Flyg and the party majority, ran his own SKP. Sweden now had one SKP in the Comintern and one outside. The Comintern-loyal party was reorganized and led by Hugo Sillén and received three percent of the votes in the 1932 by-elections, while the old Communist Party led by Kilbom received 5.32 percent. World War II was another difficult period for the party. SKP was the only political force in Sweden that supported the Soviet side in the Finnish Winter War and was the only parliamentary party that was not allowed to sit in Per Albin Hansson's coalition government. Like the rest of the communist movement, the SKP in 1939 made the analysis that the war was an imperialist war, an analysis that was largely characterized by the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact that the Soviet Union signed with Germany. Remove the Finnish Winter War, or make it so Finland accepts a land swap deal. Invasion is necessary here, but I think they would be safe because of Britain and the US controlling the seas and you have to cross the baltic more or less to get to Sweden.

Speaking of Finland they could easily have lost the Finnish-Soviet war if they were a little less lucky, or the Soviets pushed on another week or so. They could have also caved to Soviet demands for ceding borders, only to then be invaded from less defensible borders. Finland basically did the best possible thing they could. They tragically lost a bit of land, but they didn't suffer the same fate as the Baltics.

Spain could probably have become communist during their civil war with a bit of luck and actual Soviet support. As it happened IOTL the soviets basically left them to die as they offered an alternative version of communism.

Ireland: no chance without Britain also becoming communist. It will not be tolerated, and can easily be done.

Of course things would be different in this timeline but I am trying to use this as a baseline.

 

[Kaiser Tito]

This is... an extremely strange set of countries to be revolting. Some of them aren't even involved in the war to begin with, and I find myself extremely doubting how successful a communist revolt can be in certain countries that Don't even exist yet. Like, Argentina and Sweden? Why are they revolting? How is Ireland maintaining a successful revolution for longer then it takes a British corps to land in Dublin?

Argentina had an anarchist movement, Sweden had some rioting in 1917, and Ireland probably goes while Britain's collapsing from the general strike.

 

[CountDVB]

I don't know how to handle your scenario but as for the different countries you mentioned there could be a couple of things that could happen.

As for Sweden, the communists were never going to take power in Sweden as things were far too stable to allow for a communist takeover and they only amounted at their peak in 1944 to 10.4% There could however be some Finlandisation or soft influence from a communist party that is better set to influence policy.
Speaking roughly there are 2 big things that could have been different. A lack of a communist split off Inside the communist party SKP in 1929 when Karl Kilbom and most of the members were expelled from the Comintern, and several members left the party. Kilbom, together with Nils Flyg and the party majority, ran his own SKP. Sweden now had one SKP in the Comintern and one outside. The Comintern-loyal party was reorganized and led by Hugo Sillén and received three percent of the votes in the 1932 by-elections, while the old Communist Party led by Kilbom received 5.32 percent. World War II was another difficult period for the party. SKP was the only political force in Sweden that supported the Soviet side in the Finnish Winter War and was the only parliamentary party that was not allowed to sit in Per Albin Hansson's coalition government. Like the rest of the communist movement, the SKP in 1939 made the analysis that the war was an imperialist war, an analysis that was largely characterized by the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact that the Soviet Union signed with Germany. Remove the Finnish Winter War, or make it so Finland accepts a land swap deal. Invasion is necessary here, but I think they would be safe because of Britain and the US controlling the seas and you have to cross the baltic more or less to get to Sweden.

Speaking of Finland they could easily have lost the Finnish-Soviet war if they were a little less lucky, or the Soviets pushed on another week or so. They could have also caved to Soviet demands for ceding borders, only to then be invaded from less defensible borders. Finland basically did the best possible thing they could. They tragically lost a bit of land, but they didn't suffer the same fate as the Baltics.

Spain could probably have become communist during their civil war with a bit of luck and actual Soviet support. As it happened IOTL the soviets basically left them to die as they offered an alternative version of communism.

Ireland: no chance without Britain also becoming communist. It will not be tolerated, and can easily be done.

Of course things would be different in this timeline but I am trying to use this as a baseline.

Yeah though I suspect that the USSR may leave the Finns alone to focus on other prizes right here and taking care of other problems.

I think the red countries, once stabilized themselves, will likely exploit the Great Depression to be able to spread the claim, by helping other nations and convincing them. Granted, it depends which ones and so on. Italy I suspect may not fall while not sure on Yugoslavia if no Tito. Even with the spread of socialist ideals, there would be differences between them and some nations may hold on against them though I imagine the Reds, upon finishing establishing a good solid hold, would focus more on defense and structure.

China may see the Kumintang get more support to prevent China from going red while the Americans also double down against progressive hold, but without any improvements, they just strength the socialists and so on without reform. Though this could embolden FDR to go further with some stuff, like his Second Bill of Rights to be able to further keep going unless something happens to him.

 

[Kaiser Tito]

Yeah though I suspect that the USSR may leave the Finns alone to focus on other prizes right here and taking care of other problems.

I think the red countries, once stabilized themselves, will likely exploit the Great Depression to be able to spread the claim, by helping other nations and convincing them. Granted, it depends which ones and so on. Italy I suspect may not fall while not sure on Yugoslavia if no Tito. Even with the spread of socialist ideals, there would be differences between them and some nations may hold on against them though I imagine the Reds, upon finishing establishing a good solid hold, would focus more on defense and structure.

China may see the Kumintang get more support to prevent China from going red while the Americans also double down against progressive hold, but without any improvements, they just strength the socialists and so on without reform. Though this could embolden FDR to go further with some stuff, like his Second Bill of Rights to be able to further keep going unless something happens to him.

I think Yugoslavia depends on either a 1940's civil war or an Alt-war II.

 

[Kaiser Tito]

Is France likely to also fall to communism or will the fascists take over and lead the remaining capitalists until the next war? Also after britain goes red what would France do about Africa?

 

[Anarchomando]

Yeah though I suspect that the USSR may leave the Finns alone to focus on other prizes right here and taking care of other problems.

I think the red countries, once stabilized themselves, will likely exploit the Great Depression to be able to spread the claim, by helping other nations and convincing them. Granted, it depends which ones and so on. Italy I suspect may not fall while not sure on Yugoslavia if no Tito. Even with the spread of socialist ideals, there would be differences between them and some nations may hold on against them though I imagine the Reds, upon finishing establishing a good solid hold, would focus more on defense and structure.

China may see the Kumintang get more support to prevent China from going red while the Americans also double down against progressive hold, but without any improvements, they just strength the socialists and so on without reform. Though this could embolden FDR to go further with some stuff, like his Second Bill of Rights to be able to further keep going unless something happens to him.

Even if America goes red

It would still likely be against Russia (authoritarianism in general having been scorned by that kind of thinking earlier)

I say the second Bill of Rights should be added after the socialist revolution
Because they thought" it was a good idea that the capitalist bourgeoisie try to strangle in it's cradle!"