WI: Meiji Ethiopia

[SinghKing]

Didn't Prussia directly administer the Ruhr region?

Were there bituminous coal deposits on the Ruhr region? Which type of coal was it? And if so, then perhaps Ethiopia's nemesis from OTL, Italy, could serve as a better analogy with regards to its best-case scenario for industrialisation than Germany- with both TTL's Meijified Ethiopia and Italy finally managing to form their unified central governments at around the same time ITTL.

 

[GdwnsnHo]

An interesting PoD could be to introduce major water management earlier on. Ethiopia is fantastic terrain for thousands of small resevoirs, all of which could be used to store water, turn water mills (eventually - imagine using hydro-powered pumps and lifts in mines!) and in theory provide water to the lowlands so that they are more arable and useful.

Introducing terracing and water management could boost population, and lead to a hydraulic proto-revolution, which could form the industrial base for pulling a Meiji. You could go really far back and ask the Romans for help, less far and have some Byzantine Hydraulic experts flee to Ethiopia and fall into the/a kings favor, or have some come over from India.

Admittedly you have an Ethiopia that resembles an African Inca, but mastering their ample (compared to their neighbours) water supply, and Ethiopia becomes a powerhouse in its own right, if not industrialized, and then could just hire the experts sooner.

 

[iori]

Didn't Prussia directly administer the Ruhr region?

It did, yes, it won the region in 1815; additionally Prussia also actually controlled a fair bit of the area in which the other German coal deposits were to and the deposits in what's now Western Poland.

 

[SPJ]

An interesting PoD could be to introduce major water management earlier on. Ethiopia is fantastic terrain for thousands of small resevoirs, all of which could be used to store water, turn water mills (eventually - imagine using hydro-powered pumps and lifts in mines!) and in theory provide water to the lowlands so that they are more arable and useful.

Introducing terracing and water management could boost population, and lead to a hydraulic proto-revolution, which could form the industrial base for pulling a Meiji. You could go really far back and ask the Romans for help, less far and have some Byzantine Hydraulic experts flee to Ethiopia and fall into the/a kings favor, or have some come over from India.

Admittedly you have an Ethiopia that resembles an African Inca, but mastering their ample (compared to their neighbours) water supply, and Ethiopia becomes a powerhouse in its own right, if not industrialized, and then could just hire the experts sooner.

To fit the OP's original POD suggestions for the 1860's have some engineer(s) just finished with the Suez canal go to Ethiopia, see said opportunities, and stay to build said waterways for a profit.

 

[Tanc49]

To fit the OP's original POD suggestions for the 1860's have some engineer(s) just finished with the Suez canal go to Ethiopia, see said opportunities, and stay to build said waterways for a profit.

I really like the idea but would anyone in Ethiopia in 1860's be wealthy enough and stable enough to pay for it?

 

[DG Valdron]

Isn't the real issue the political and economic set up of the Ethiopian Empire.

I'm no expert, but I've read that it was essentially feudal in nature, with powerful lords being influential, and that the Amharics were literally ruling over conquered neighbors.

If you're going to industrialize or even substantively reform Ethiopian society, these are the things you have to work around.

 

[SinghKing]

Isn't the real issue the political and economic set up of the Ethiopian Empire.

I'm no expert, but I've read that it was essentially feudal in nature, with powerful lords being influential, and that the Amharics were literally ruling over conquered neighbors.

If you're going to industrialize or even substantively reform Ethiopian society, these are the things you have to work around.

Of course. But the same was true of pretty much every nation in the world at the start of the 19th century. They could try and work around it- which'll take time, effort, unified organisation and funding which they don't have, and would lead to a situation akin to OTL, where the colonial nations trample in and tear Ethiopia apart, potentially even more violently and with even worse repercussions for the region than IOTL- or, as the Japanese did, they could try and work with it. The Meiji Restoration succeeded because of the Satchō Alliance, formed between the two most influential Japanese feudal lords, with the purpose of overthrowing the Shogunate and seizing the reins of power. Nominally for the Emperor, of course; but in reality, they were seizing power for themselves. The Satchō Alliance won the Boshin War- and the Government of Meiji Japan would be completely dominated by former feudal lords from the Alliance's domains, the Meiji Oligarchy.

That's why Ethiopia, at this specific POD, strikes me as being one of the few nations other than Japan which could conceivably pull off a true Meiji, practically down to the slightest detail. Satsuma Domain=Tigray Province (which still encompassed Eritrea at this time); Shewa=Chōshū Province. Dejazmach Kassai (Yohannes IV)=Saigo Takamori &/or Ōkubo Toshimichi; Menelek (II)=Kido Takayoshi; Tewedros II=Emperor Meiji. Hell, even John Charles Kirkham=Thomas Blake Glover. And given that there isn't a shogunate for them to have to conceal their activities from- that the established 'authorities' are already staunchly on their side- one could even argue that it'd be easier and smoother for Ethiopia ITTL than it was for Japan IOTL.

 

[SPJ]

I really like the idea but would anyone in Ethiopia in 1860's be wealthy enough and stable enough to pay for it?

Couldn't Ethiopia's govt pay the engineers with bonds or an allotment payed over time. Or even better a percentage of what income Ethiopia gains from the use of the reservoirs in agriculture, mining, etc.


Also here are some added ideas. How about a POD in which Tewodros wife Tewabech and British adviser John Bell and Walter Plowden don't die as they did in OTL. A quick search on Wikipedia turned this up.

Some historians like Paul B. Henze, believe Tewabech had a positive effect on Tewodros, and his violent and erratic behavior in the last ten years of his reign was due in part to the lack of advice from her, and other advisors like John Bell and Walter Plowden (who were killed in 1860)

If this keeps Tewordos behaving more civil then their may be less dissension under his reign during the 1860s.

 

[Tanc49]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tanc49
I really like the idea but would anyone in Ethiopia in 1860's be wealthy enough and stable enough to pay for it?

Couldn't Ethiopia's govt pay the engineers with bonds or an allotment payed over time. Or even better a percentage of what income Ethiopia gains from the use of the reservoirs in agriculture, mining, etc.

Well, yeah, if there is a state stable enough to emit bonds, which doesn't work well with medievalist warring factions probably soon to be colonised (as the financial markets of the time might have seen them)

 

[Sevarics]

I hope this doesn't count as necro-ing but I don't think the two-three weeks is too long to post on this...

But didn't Ethiopia also have to deal with slavery? I feel like this would also potentially be a bar to the country modernizing itself. Any leader that tries to free all the slaves at that time might very well be overthrown a la what happened in Brazil.

 

[Blackfox5]

Japan had exposure to Western science and technology for centuries (rangaku or "Dutch science", so named for the Dutch traders which brought materials to Nagasaki).

Japan had an extremely large literate population.

Japan had a well developed national bureaucracy.

Japan had a very extensive, highly skilled craft industry that easily made the switch to industrial mode of development. Their workforce was already ready for it.

Ethiopia did not have any of this. It is not just a question of well, but one of capacity. Japan had the ability to modernize in the 19th century, and Ethiopia did not. Ethiopia had a long way to develop the skills and abilities Japan already possessed.

Of course, Ethiopia could do better along its own path than it did IOTL. Also, Ethiopia might have developed differently as a result of Portuguese contact going back to the 1600s which would have better prepared it for a thorough modernization in the 19th century. But it needs a lot of work either way.

 

[Sevarics]

What about an earlier Suez Canal? Maybe the earlier impact of easy accessibility leads to Ethiopia modernizing and beginning to manufacture and expand?