WI: Meiji Ethiopia

[SinghKing]

Carrying this over from the post-1900 thread suggestion- would it be plausible to have Ethiopia entering its equivalent of the Meiji Era in an ATL, prior to 1900? If so, how might the subsequent timeline develop, and how profoundly might it diverge from our own? And which POD would be the best to use? I've got two major POD's which I feel could potentially bring about this outcome, but I'm kind of torn between them.

A) The 1868 Expedition to Abysinnia ITTL serves as Ethiopia's equivalent of Commodore Perry's expedition to open up Japan in 1853 IOTL- in this instance, the POD would be the Abysinnian army holding their solid defensive positions on the plateau at Arogye rather than launching a futile suicide attack against the British expeditionary force. As such, a tense stand-off develops between the two armies, followed by the calling of a truce and the eventual resolution of the situation via the signing of an unequal treaty, akin to the Convention of Kanagawa. This then triggers comprehensive reform, industrialisation and modernisation within the Ethiopian Empire.

B) Alternatively, you could have a slightly earlier POD, thereby averting the 1868 Expedition to Abysinnia entirely. IOTL, this commenced after the British Consul in Ethiopia, Captain Charles Duncan Cameron, had delivered Emperor Tewodros a royal letter and presents from Queen Victoria in person, arriving at Gondar 23 June 1862, and reaching the Emperor's camp that October. Delighted, Tewedros II wrote a return letter to Queen Victoria as a fellow Christian monarch, asking for British assistance in the region. Tewodros asked Cameron to carry the letter back to Queen Victoria personally, requesting skilled workers to come to teach his subjects how to produce firearms, and other technical skills. Cameron traveled to the coast with the letter, but when he informed the Foreign Office of the letter and its contents, the Foreign Office instructed him simply to send the letter on to London, instead than take it himself. He was to proceed to the Sudan to make inquiries about the slave trade there. After doing this, Cameron returned to Ethiopia.

On Cameron's return, the Emperor became enraged when he found out that Cameron had not taken the letter to London personally, had not brought a response from the Queen, and most of all, had spent time traveling through enemy Egyptian and Turkish territories. Cameron tried to appease the Emperor, saying that a reply to the letter would arrive shortly. But it didn't; the Foreign Office in London never passed the letter on to Queen Victoria, but simply filed it under Pending. The letter stayed there for a year, before the Foreign Office then sent the letter on to India, because Abyssinia 'came under the Raj's remit'. And apparently, when the letter arrived in India, officials filed it under Not Even Pending, where it would be lost forever.

After two years had passed, and Tewodros had not received a reply, he imprisoned Cameron, together with all the British subjects in Ethiopia and various other Europeans, in an attempt to get the queen's attention. His prisoners included a missionary named Mr. Stern, who had previously published a book in Europe describing Tewodros as a barbaric, cruel, unstable usurper. When Tewodros saw this book, he became violently angry, pulled a gun on Stern, and had to be restrained from killing the missionary. Tewodros also received reports from abroad that foreign papers had quoted these European residents of Ethiopia as having said many negative things about him and his reign.

The British sent a mission under an Assyrian-born British subject, Hormuzd Rassam, who finally came with a 'reply' from the Queen- which wasn't actually a reply to Tewedros' now three-year-old letter requesting aid at all, which had long since been lost in the mail, but a wholly new and unrelated message, sent in the hope of resolving the hostage situation peacefully. However, Tewedros understandably assumed that this was Queen Victoria's long-awaited reply to his letter. Deeply insulted by the British failure to bring the skilled workers as he had requested, and presumably also by the oblivious and obnoxious tone of Queen Victoria's message ("There's not even any mention of my reply at all! Does she think she is too big, too high and mighty to even acknowledge the message that I sent her, almost FOUR YEARS AGO now? I am Emperor Tewedros II of the Ethiopian Empire! Son of David and Solomon! Where does she get off, blanking me like this? I DEMAND A RESPONSE!") Tewodros had the members of the Rassam mission added to his other European prisoners, thereby providing the cassus-belli for the 1868 Expedition.

So, for a potential POD, WI Captain Charles Duncan Cameron had actually done as instructed, and returned to the UK in order to present Emperor Tewedros II's reply to Queen Victoria in person? Or at the very least, if the guilty culprit in the British Foreign Office had actually done their job and forwarded Tewedros' letter on to Queen Victoria when they actually received it, instead of simply shunting it off into the filing cabinet under 'Pending'?

 

[SinghKing]

Bumping. Which POD seems more plausible? And how far-reaching could the consequences have been?

 

[SPJ]

Plausibility wise IDK but I like the first suggestion better. After that though what happens to reform the country. Japan's industrialization didn't begin until after a civil war and new government 15 years after Com. Perry's arrival. What kind of time frame could we look at in Abyssinia and who might lead a similar civil insurrection against Tewodros doesn't do good enough a job?

 

[SinghKing]

Plausibility wise IDK but I like the first suggestion better. After that though what happens to reform the country. Japan's industrialization didn't begin until after a civil war and new government 15 years after Com. Perry's arrival. What kind of time frame could we look at in Abyssinia and who might lead a similar civil insurrection against Tewodros doesn't do good enough a job?

Well, IMHO, probably only the three most powerful princes in Ethiopia would have been strong enough to lead a civil insurrection against Tewedros II. Unlike in Japan though, you'd need the civil insurrection to fail in order to cement Imperial rule and bring about wholesale industrial reform, since the Ethiopians didn't have a shogunate to overthrow. IMHO, Wagshum Gobeze, aka 'Emperor Tekle Giyorgis II', seems to meet the bill perfectly. ITTL, with Emperor Tewedros II still alive and well, and with both of the other two most powerful princes, Menelek of Shewa (OTL's future Emperor Menelek II) and Dejazmach Kassai of Tigray (OTL's future Emperor Yohannes IV), being fiercely loyal to Tewedros II, the two could easily have formed their own Ethiopian equivalent of the Satsuma-Chōshū Alliance, which was so instrumental in bringing about Japan's own Meiji Restoration.

As for the time-frame- IOTL, Gobeze had already made his opening move and begun his rebellion even before the British Expedition to Ethiopia, and the subsequent suicide of Emperor Tewodros II in April 1868. Towards the end of 1867, he began to march on Tewodros' fortress at Maqdala, but stopped about 30 miles away and turned to fight Tiso Gobeze instead, who had also revolted against Tewodros and controlled the local province of Begemder; after his local rival Tiso was killed in battle at Qwila, Wagshum Gobeze decided to call off his march against Maqdala, as the British expedition had already arrived by this stage, and he'd be better placed to capitalize in the immediate aftermath of the British campaign. So, Gobeze had effectively already tossed his dice and commenced his power play before the POD- if the situation had been resolved through the signing of a treaty, and Emperor Tewedros II had chosen to survive to continuing ruling his kingdom, then the Ethiopian equivalent of the Boshin War's effectively already commenced.

Gobeze was very much an anti-progressive traditionalist who desired to rule as an absolute monarch (as shown by his choice of imperial name IOTL, Emperor Tekle Giyorgis II- Emperor Tekle Giyorgis I had been the last emperor to exercise authority on his own, back in the late 18th century), and who sought the support of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, which had been alienated by the alarmingly progressive policies which Tewedros had attempted to enact- offering to restore to the churches the lands which his predecessor had taken away, give them generous quantities of equipment, and arranging a special burial and commemoration for Abuna Salama (head of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, who had died in October 1867). Effectively, instead of the Imperial Court against the Shogunate as in Japan, in Ethiopia, you'd have the Imperial Court against the Ethiopian Orthodox Church-backed Gobeze, along with most of the other reactionary traditionalist figureheads in Ethiopia.

And in that conflict, with the Menelik-Kassai Alliance as the primary contributors to the Imperial Ethiopian Army, there'd only be one winner. IOTL, Kassai's troops were already starting to reap the benefits of Western modernisation, with John Charles Kirkham having already arrived in Ethiopia at around the same time as the British expeditionary force, staying in the country and becoming the main Western advisor to Kassai (who would soon oust Tekle Giyorgis II with relative ease on his own to become Emperor Yohannes IV) IOTL. He was instrumental in training Ethiopian troops to Western military standards, raising and drilling what became known as the Emperor's Disciplined Force. ITTL, he'd doubtless have even greater opportunity to do so, probably being welcomed with open arms by Emperor Tewedros II, as exactly the kind of man he'd been asking for in that fateful reply he'd sent to Queen Victoria's letter, 6 years previously...

 

[Deleted member 67076]

I love this idea, but Im not sure if I can offer any support. My knowledge of Ethiopian history is woefully limited.

 

[iori]

The only countries that could 'pull a Meiji' are Japan, Korea and potentially China.

Japan did not magically become a modern state with an industrialized economy, as much as people like to attribute Japan's insta-modernization to Emperor Meiji in reality it was because Japans history going back the prior two centuries; Japan had in the 17th century began developing industries (Japan was at one point the leading gun producer in the world, for a period having more guns than all of Europe combined), which were eventually expanded somewhat with the Shogunate encouraging the development of light industries in the late 18th century, which all combined to allow Japan by the Meiji era to have already established a modern (by the time period) economy and a longstanding established base of light industry and cottage industries which are what allowed Japan to fully industrialize, and that's not even taking into account social, political and geographic things that Japan had that Ethiopia did not and even to a degree today does not have.

In short, no, Ethiopia could not 'pull a Meiji'.

 

[Emperor Palpatine]

Ethiopia doesn't have any coal so given the time period and its landlocked nature this is unfortunately not possible. Ethiopia like many parts of Africa is a victim of circumstance.

 

[Agatho]

Ethiopia doesn't have any coal so given the time period and its landlocked nature this is unfortunately not possible. Ethiopia like many parts of Africa is a victim of circumstance.

Ethiopia wasn't landlocked just yet. At this point it still had a claim over what is today Eritrea, and it wouldn't lose it until after the POD. While I don't think Ethiopia would be as successful as Imperial Japan (though in many ways it was immensely successful, expanding well beyond its historical borders and benefiting from Italian incompetence), there's no question that earlier access to Western arms and doctrine could have allowed it to fare better against encroaching European countries like Italy, who were themselves far behind the British and the French.

Are we talking about a superpower? No. But a regional power with better infrastructure and quality of life than OTL that can assert itself in a strategic region and thus make a better ally than a colony? Definitely.

 

[Emperor Palpatine]

Ethiopia wasn't landlocked just yet. At this point it still had a claim over what is today Eritrea, and it wouldn't lose it until after the POD. While I don't think Ethiopia would be as successful as Imperial Japan (though in many ways it was immensely successful, expanding well beyond its historical borders and benefiting from Italian incompetence), there's no question that earlier access to Western arms and doctrine could have allowed it to fare better against encroaching European countries like Italy, who were themselves far behind the British and the French.

Are we talking about a superpower? No. But a regional power with better infrastructure and quality of life than OTL that can assert itself in a strategic region and thus make a better ally than a colony? Definitely.

Japan is the only example of a non European power that succesfully modernized on Western lines. The two biggest failures are of course Egypt and the Ottoman Empire which ended up with European controlled public debt administrations. For this to work, Ethiopia would have to avoid the mistakes of its Arab neighbours while doing what Japan did. Do you per chance know why Japan was different?

 

[mlp]

Japan is the only example of a non European power that succesfully modernized on Western lines. The two biggest failures are of course Egypt and the Ottoman Empire which ended up with European controlled public debt administrations. For this to work, Ethiopia would have to avoid the mistakes of its Arab neighbours while doing what Japan did. Do you per chance know why Japan was different?

I believe that it was because Japan's economic and political system was cohesive enough to endure the new changes. Meiji in a way wasn't about modernisation, remember - it was about the shifts of political power from one clan to another.

 

[Emperor Palpatine]

I believe that it was because Japan's economic and political system was cohesive enough to endure the new changes. Meiji in a way wasn't about modernisation, remember - it was about the shifts of political power from one clan to another.

I'm really not that well versed in Japanese history. Did they take lots of loans from European creditors? It was loans for bad investments that doomed the Ottomans and Egyptians.

 

[iori]

Japan is the only example of a non European power that succesfully modernized on Western lines. The two biggest failures are of course Egypt and the Ottoman Empire which ended up with European controlled public debt administrations. For this to work, Ethiopia would have to avoid the mistakes of its Arab neighbours while doing what Japan did. Do you per chance know why Japan was different?

I'm really not that well versed in Japanese history. Did they take lots of loans from European creditors? It was loans for bad investments that doomed the Ottomans and Egyptians.

See my first post; Japan had spent two centuries gradually building-up an industrial backbone, was a centralized state, had geography on its side (being an island you don't have to deal with expanding land-based neighbours) and had established over time a modern (for the time) economy.

 

[Tanc49]

Meiji has a big advantage though: its natural posture is to be allied to the European powers.

It's a stable-ish Kingdom, fighting the Mahdi rebellion in 1884 as allies to the British in Egypt/modern day Sudan and it's Christian. It's in the middle of potential trade routes to go to the middle of the continent and smack dab on the Cape to Cairo line wanted by Rhodes and in the middle of the Djibouti to Dakar line wanted by the French.
A semi-agile diplomat could leverage that to get a good position and modernise its infrastructure with European capital (Private or public)

 

[Timaeus]

The only countries that could 'pull a Meiji' are Japan, Korea and potentially China.

Japan did not magically become a modern state with an industrialized economy, as much as people like to attribute Japan's insta-modernization to Emperor Meiji in reality it was because Japans history going back the prior two centuries; Japan had in the 17th century began developing industries (Japan was at one point the leading gun producer in the world, for a period having more guns than all of Europe combined), which were eventually expanded somewhat with the Shogunate encouraging the development of light industries in the late 18th century, which all combined to allow Japan by the Meiji era to have already established a modern (by the time period) economy and a longstanding established base of light industry and cottage industries which are what allowed Japan to fully industrialize, and that's not even taking into account social, political and geographic things that Japan had that Ethiopia did not and even to a degree today does not have.

In short, no, Ethiopia could not 'pull a Meiji'.

*coughs, looking at the Philippines, with its vast trade network and closeness to Western ideas*

 

[iori]

*coughs, looking at the Philippines, with its vast trade network and closeness to Western ideas*

The Philippines did not spend two centuries building-up light and cottage industries, it does not have a history as a unified polity (even when Japan was in its 'Warring States' period everyone still considered themselves to be part of a single country and would band together against outside threats) nor was it an independent state at the time.

While trade and technical knowledge from the West did help Japan, ultimately it was the result of Japan itself doing things.

 

[Timaeus]

The Philippines did not spend two centuries building-up light and cottage industries, it does not have a history as a unified polity (even when Japan was in its 'Warring States' period everyone still considered themselves to be part of a single country and would band together against outside threats) nor was it an independent state at the time.

While trade and technical knowledge from the West did help Japan, ultimately it was the result of Japan itself doing things.

hm... true. just throwing it in as a possibility.

though there were rising nationalist sentiments by the early 19th century, along with cottage industries. ah, if only...

anyway, are there any other possibilities for swift industrialization?

EDIT: i mean outside the three East Asian nations you mentioned?

 

[iori]

hm... true. just throwing it in as a possibility.

though there were rising nationalist sentiments by the early 19th century, along with cottage industries. ah, if only...

anyway, are there any other possibilities for swift industrialization?

EDIT: i mean outside the three East Asian nations you mentioned?

Depends on how far back you want to go for a PoD, I mean if you go back far enough you can get most places that are'nt desert to develop countries that could do so.

If we're talking about just the 19th century then the only other one would be the Ottoman Empire.

 

[mlp]

hm... true. just throwing it in as a possibility.

though there were rising nationalist sentiments by the early 19th century, along with cottage industries. ah, if only...

anyway, are there any other possibilities for swift industrialization?

EDIT: i mean outside the three East Asian nations you mentioned?

My Asian Industrialisation AHC thread. An interesting read if you haven't tried it yet.

 

[SinghKing]

Ethiopia doesn't have any coal so given the time period and its landlocked nature this is unfortunately not possible. Ethiopia like many parts of Africa is a victim of circumstance.

Ahem.

As you can see from this map, Ethiopia is actually one of the few African nations which does have its own coal reserves. Of course, they're lignite, which was the least useful form of coal- but as you can see from the map, all of the coal reserves possessed by the German Empire at that time were also solely comprised of lignite, and their reserves were no more substantial than those of the Ethiopians- in fact, once one takes into account their respective population sizes, the Germans' coal reserves were proportionately far smaller per capita than those of contemporary Ethiopia. The German Empire was only unified from the German Confederation (Deutscher Bund), a loose league of 39 sovereign states which was arguably far more fragmented and complex than Ethiopia's own assortment of princely sub-kingdoms, in 1871. And yet, the Germans managed to become perhaps the single most industrialised nation in the world at one stage. If coal reserves are so all-important, and if there aren't any conceivable ways to get around that coal deficit, then how did Germany manage to break the universal laws of industrialisation?

 

[mlp]

Didn't Prussia directly administer the Ruhr region?