WI: Joanna the Mad dies of childbirth in 1500

[GameBawesome]

In 1500, in Ghent, Charles V was born, who would become Holy Roman Emperor and the King of Spain, controlling the largest domain, which included the newly conquered Americas. His father was Philip the Handsome, a German prince who married the Joanna I, daughter of Ferdinand II of Aragon and Isabella I of Castille. The marriage was complicated, as Philip tried to consolidate his power in Spain. Then in 1506 he died. Joanna was distraught, paving her nickname "Joanna the Mad", and paved the way for her son Charles V.

What if, in 1500, Joanna's gets complications during the childbirth, leading to the deaths of both the mother and the child.

How would this effect the Spanish line of succession? What happens to Philip the Handsome?

 

[Dragonboy]

Eleanor would then be the heir to the spanish dominios and her Grandparents would raise her in spain. She Will definitely marry Joao III of Portugal unitinh the Iberian península.

 

[HortenseMancini]

assuming that Miguel da Paz dies his otl death later that year then Eleanor of Austria will be heiress to all of Spain, shipped off to be raised there, and betrothed to a Portuguese cousin (or possibly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfonso_de_Aragón_y_Portugal but I think a Portuguese cousin is far more likely). Philip the handsome will remarry, probably to a French proxy or a jagiellon girl, and most likely has a son by her who inherits his realms

As for long term effects I think things will be much better here for both Spain and the hre as I doubt a Habsburg emperor who isn’t bogged down with Spain will allow the religious situation to get as out of hand as it did otl and they also will keep direct control of the lucrative Low Countries. Spain will benefit without the drain of money and men to the Low Countries that occurred later in the century IOTL but watch this space cause I think the influx of gold from the new world may cause some problems anyways? Idk

 

[Vitruvius]

Philip would probably remarry in short order since his father has no other sons from his subsequent marriages and his sister Margaret is equally childless so the entire Austrian and Burgundian inheritance rests on the fate of a two year girl.

Since all their daughters are spoken for perhaps Ferdinand and Isabella suggest the widowed Joanna of Naples for Philip in order to preserve the Trastamara connection to Burgundy? As long as he gets a son the Eleanor can become the Spanish heiress while the boy continues the Habsburg line in Austria and Burgundy.

 

[isabella]

assuming that Miguel da Paz dies his otl death later that year then Eleanor of Austria will be heiress to all of Spain, shipped off to be raised there, and betrothed to a Portuguese cousin (or possibly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfonso_de_Aragón_y_Portugal but I think a Portuguese cousin is far more likely). Philip the handsome will remarry, probably to a French proxy or a jagiellon girl, and most likely has a son by her who inherits his realms

Ferdinand II will be the one to choose Eleanor’s husband so it could go both ways

Philip would probably remarry in short order since his father has no other sons from his subsequent marriages and his sister Margaret is equally childless so the entire Austrian and Burgundian inheritance rests on the fate of a two year girl.

Since all their daughters are spoken for perhaps Ferdinand and Isabella suggest the widowed Joanna of Naples for Philip in order to preserve the Trastamara connection to Burgundy? As long as he gets a son the Eleanor can become the Spanish heiress while the boy continues the Habsburg line in Austria and Burgundy.

Philip would remarry, but would not accept another useless match forced by his father so he would not marry Joanna of Naples for sure. Either Maximilian is able to persuade his son to a Jagiellon match or he will get a match useful to Burgundy so either England or France. Unluckily René II of Lorraine has no daughter in the right age range so I would say who Philip will most likely remarry to Germaine of Foix

 

[kasumigenx]

Ferdinand II will be the one to choose Eleanor’s husband so it could go both ways

Philip would remarry, but would not accept another useless match forced by his father so he would not marry Joanna of Naples for sure. Either Maximilian is able to persuade his son to a Jagiellon match or he will get a match useful to Burgundy so either England or France. Unluckily René II of Lorraine has no daughter in the right age range so I would say who Philip will most likely remarry to Germaine of Foix

Eleanor can either marry Henry II of Navarre or John III of Portugal...

 

[isabella]

Eleanor can either marry Henry II of Navarre or John III of Portugal...

Henry II of Navarre is not a realistic option as would be an useless match for her. She will marry either Alfonso of Ampurias or John III of Portugal, depending from what Ferdinand II will see as the best option (adding Portugal to the union of Aragon and Castile marrying his grandchildren or keeping the union of Castile and Aragon under the Trastramara dynasty marrying Eleanor to Alfonso) as either match would secure the Crown of Aragon to Eleanor

 

[BlueFlowwer]

Henry II of Navarre is not a realistic option as would be an useless match for her. She will marry either Alfonso of Ampurias or John III of Portugal, depending from what Ferdinand II will see as the best option (adding Portugal to the union of Aragon and Castile marrying his grandchildren or keeping the union of Castile and Aragon under the Trastramara dynasty marrying Eleanor to Alfonso) as either match would secure the Crown of Aragon to Eleanor

An Alfonso match is the one I would go with as he's older and would be able to cement his and Eleanor's reign faster to prevent a power vacuum after Isabella's death.

 

[Dragonboy]

An Alfonso match is the one I would go with as he's older and would be able to cement his and Eleanor's reign faster to prevent a power vacuum after Isabella's death.

True. But John III would be Best in the long run! With the Iberian union

 

[Kynan]

So England probably immediately starts offering Margaret Tudor to Philip - right? It's a match that makes the most sense and prevents him from ending up in an alliance with France, who will likely offer him lesser Princesses. And for James IV, Cecily is a year widowed at this point, and probably offered in lieu of Bridget the Nun. Or they might really push their luck and try and get James IV to accept a betrothal with the 4 year old Princess Mary. Most likely, James IV throws his hands in the air and marries a French proxy. Maybe Germaine of Foix.

 

[BlueFlowwer]

So England probably immediately starts offering Margaret Tudor to Philip - right? It's a match that makes the most sense and prevents him from ending up in an alliance with France, who will likely offer him lesser Princesses. And for James IV, Cecily is a year widowed at this point, and probably offered in lieu of Bridget the Nun. Or they might really push their luck and try and get James IV to accept a betrothal with the 4 year old Princess Mary. Most likely, James IV throws his hands in the air and marries a French proxy. Maybe Germaine of Foix.

Perhaps James marries Margaret of Austria?

 

[Vitruvius]

The one thing I wonder about is the 'raised in Spain' proposition for Eleanor. From Philip's perspective she's still his heir until he has a son and having custody of her gives him useful leverage against Ferdinand. So wouldn't he at least hold on to her until he has a son a few years old.

If he remarried quickly and has a son born immediately, maybe late 1502 I would think he'd wait until the boy was a few years old and they could be sure he'd survive before he'd even be willing to release Eleanor to her grandparents. So that would mean she could very well still be in Brussels when her grandmother died and she becomes Queen of Castile. Philip being ambitious could he try and contest a Castilian regency with Ferdinand?

 

[HortenseMancini]

So England probably immediately starts offering Margaret Tudor to Philip - right? It's a match that makes the most sense and prevents him from ending up in an alliance with France, who will likely offer him lesser Princesses. And for James IV, Cecily is a year widowed at this point, and probably offered in lieu of Bridget the Nun. Or they might really push their luck and try and get James IV to accept a betrothal with the 4 year old Princess Mary. Most likely, James IV throws his hands in the air and marries a French proxy. Maybe Germaine of Foix.

No way Henry vii would break Margaret’s betrothal with Scotland it was too important

 

[HortenseMancini]

The one thing I wonder about is the 'raised in Spain' proposition for Eleanor. From Philip's perspective she's still his heir until he has a son and having custody of her gives him useful leverage against Ferdinand. So wouldn't he at least hold on to her until he has a son a few years old.

If he remarried quickly and has a son born immediately, maybe late 1502 I would think he'd wait until the boy was a few years old and they could be sure he'd survive before he'd even be willing to release Eleanor to her grandparents. So that would mean she could very well still be in Brussels when her grandmother died and she becomes Queen of Castile. Philip being ambitious could he try and contest a Castilian regency with Ferdinand?

I see what you’re saying about Eleanor remaining in the Low Countries until she has a half brother. And I think Philip could try to be named regent of Castile but it would never happen

 

[Saya Aensland]

Could there be support for Maria of Aragon to become heiress based on proximity of blood? Did the Iberians even care about proximity of blood, or was that exclusively a French/Imperial thing?

 

[isabella]

So England probably immediately starts offering Margaret Tudor to Philip - right? It's a match that makes the most sense and prevents him from ending up in an alliance with France, who will likely offer him lesser Princesses. And for James IV, Cecily is a year widowed at this point, and probably offered in lieu of Bridget the Nun. Or they might really push their luck and try and get James IV to accept a betrothal with the 4 year old Princess Mary. Most likely, James IV throws his hands in the air and marries a French proxy. Maybe Germaine of Foix.

Unlikely who Margaret would be offered to Philip or who he would accept. Germaine is older and Louis XII’s own blood niece and a more interesting match for Philip (and she would not marry James)

 

[BlueFlowwer]

Could there be support for Maria of Aragon to become heiress based on proximity of blood? Did the Iberians even care about proximity of blood, or was that exclusively a French/Imperial thing?

Maria and her children would be heirs after Eleanor.

 

[isabella]

The one thing I wonder about is the 'raised in Spain' proposition for Eleanor. From Philip's perspective she's still his heir until he has a son and having custody of her gives him useful leverage against Ferdinand. So wouldn't he at least hold on to her until he has a son a few years old.

If he remarried quickly and has a son born immediately, maybe late 1502 I would think he'd wait until the boy was a few years old and they could be sure he'd survive before he'd even be willing to release Eleanor to her grandparents. So that would mean she could very well still be in Brussels when her grandmother died and she becomes Queen of Castile. Philip being ambitious could he try and contest a Castilian regency with Ferdinand?

Either Eleanor is given to the custody of her grandparents or Maria would become heiress of Castile and Aragon. OTL Miguel was heir of Portugal and still was under Isabella’s custody
Isabella’s ATL last will would name Ferdinand as regent for Eleanor’s minority or Maria as heiress if Eleanor is still in Castile

Could there be support for Maria of Aragon to become heiress based on proximity of blood? Did the Iberians even care about proximity of blood, or was that exclusively a French/Imperial thing?

Maria and her children would be heirs after Eleanor.

In theory, but if Eleanor is in Burgundy under her father’s custody is not unlikely who Isabella would name Maria as heiress as she was tempted to do it OTL

 

[Vitruvius]

Unlikely who Margaret would be offered to Philip or who he would accept. Germaine is older and Louis XII’s own blood niece and a more interesting match for Philip (and she would not marry James)

Isn't Germaine a little young? She'd only be 12 when Joanna dies so would Philip be willing to wait a few years when he really needs an heir. Though I could see her being used in a political gambit if he's trying to ring some kind of concession out of Ferdinand. Louis and Ferdinand resumed their fighting over in Naples in 1502 so if Philip doesn't conclude a marriage before then presumably the two sides would be competing for influence.

Either Eleanor is given to the custody of her grandparents or Maria would become heiress of Castile and Aragon. OTL Miguel was heir of Portugal and still was under Isabella’s custody
Isabella’s ATL last will would name Ferdinand as regent for Eleanor’s minority or Maria as heiress if Eleanor is still in Castile

You're speaking of Isabella I, Joanna's mother and Miguel's grandmother correct? Not Isabella of Aragon, Isabella I's daughter and Miguel's mother. I read it as the latter at first but you're right, if its the former then Isabella I would presumably regulate the succession in her will and if Philip is being recalcitrant and holding Eleanor in Brussels then she could be disinherited in favor of Maria.

I guess, regardless, its a political minefield. But with Isabella's will and Ferdinand's strength as King of Aragon any claim Philip makes could be neutralized. So if he falls out with Ferdinand and Isabella does he just make a French match and throw in his lot with Louis XII or does he heed his father and marry a Jagiellon and sulk in Brussels.

 

[DrakeRlugia]

Either Eleanor is given to the custody of her grandparents or Maria would become heiress of Castile and Aragon. OTL Miguel was heir of Portugal and still was under Isabella’s custody
Isabella’s ATL last will would name Ferdinand as regent for Eleanor’s minority or Maria as heiress if Eleanor is still in Castile

I think the big different re: Miguel da Paz is that Portugal is contingent with Castile, so it's no biggie for him to be sent to Castile, especially since he'll be the future king there and unite the peninsula. Sending Eleanor to Castile wouldn't happen immediately, since there's no way they're putting an infant onto a boat on a potentially dangerous sea voyage. 16th century ships aren't exactly known for being the most hygienic places, and even Margaret of Austria had fears of her ship sinking on her travail to Spain. I think it's likely she won't go to Spain until she's old enough and strong enough for the voyage, which will give Philip enough time to remarry and have a son and secure the Burgundian succession. I could see her going in 1503-1504, which is pushing it IMO and probably the absolute earliest she could go.

In the mean time, I could see Isabella ensuring she has say over Eleanor's education during those few years she's still in the Low Countries and would probably try and build up a Spanish suite around her. At the very least, she'll be coming to Spain young enough that she'll be reared and raised as a Castilian, much how Ferdinand turned out IOTL.