WI: Joanna the Mad dies of childbirth in 1500

[Vitruvius]

I think the big different re: Miguel da Paz is that Portugal is contingent with Castile, so it's no biggie for him to be sent to Castile, especially since he'll be the future king there and unite the peninsula. Sending Eleanor to Castile wouldn't happen immediately, since there's no way they're putting an infant onto a boat on a potentially dangerous sea voyage. 16th century ships aren't exactly known for being the most hygienic places, and even Margaret of Austria had fears of her ship sinking on her travail to Spain. I think it's likely she won't go to Spain until she's old enough and strong enough for the voyage, which will give Philip enough time to remarry and have a son and secure the Burgundian succession. I could see her going in 1503-1504, which is pushing it IMO and probably the absolute earliest she could go.

In the mean time, I could see Isabella ensuring she has say over Eleanor's education during those few years she's still in the Low Countries and would probably try and build up a Spanish suite around her. At the very least, she'll be coming to Spain young enough that she'll be reared and raised as a Castilian, much how Ferdinand turned out IOTL.

Agreed. So the education would remain the flash point. Ferdinand and Isabella would probably want to send Spanish courtiers to Brussels to ensure Eleanor can speak spanish and be familiar with her future realm. But Philip is in the position to block their access to the child if he starts making demands or just wants to be petty.

As regards Alfonso of Ampurias as a candidate for Eleanor if they wanted a Trastamara for her wouldn't Frederick of Naples' son Ferdinand be a better choice? I know his father had been deposed but he's still a Trastamara and he would secure the claim to Naples in a period when its still be contested with France.

 

[FalconHonour]

Ferdinand II will be the one to choose Eleanor’s husband so it could go both ways

Philip would remarry, but would not accept another useless match forced by his father so he would not marry Joanna of Naples for sure. Either Maximilian is able to persuade his son to a Jagiellon match or he will get a match useful to Burgundy so either England or France. Unluckily René II of Lorraine has no daughter in the right age range so I would say who Philip will most likely remarry to Germaine of Foix

Margaret Tudor isn't out of the question either - she won't be married for another three years, and if Anglo-Scottish relations are slightly worse than OTL (perhaps James gave Warbeck more support than OTL) then Henry VII might choose to honour the old Anglo-Burgundian alliance rather than seek peace with the Scots.

 

[DrakeRlugia]

Agreed. So the education would remain the flash point. Ferdinand and Isabella would probably want to send Spanish courtiers to Brussels to ensure Eleanor can speak spanish and be familiar with her future realm. But Philip is in the position to block their access to the child if he starts making demands or just wants to be petty.

As regards Alfonso of Ampurias as a candidate for Eleanor if they wanted a Trastamara for her wouldn't Frederick of Naples' son Ferdinand be a better choice? I know his father had been deposed but he's still a Trastamara and he would secure the claim to Naples in a period when its still be contested with France.

Exactly. Who's to say that Philip won't try and sabotage matters just because he can?

IIRC Ferdinand of Aragon wasn't a huge fan of Frederick of Naples. I don't think there was much love lost between them, given that Ferdinand happily partitioned Naples with Louis XII.

I know Ferdinand became friendly with the Duke of Calabria when he was a hostage in Spain, but I don't know if he'd consider a match that would make Calabria the possible King of Castile and Aragon. It seems like Calabria was always kept at arms length, and when he did eventually marry IOTL, his bride was nearly 40.

 

[BlueFlowwer]

Either Eleanor is given to the custody of her grandparents or Maria would become heiress of Castile and Aragon. OTL Miguel was heir of Portugal and still was under Isabella’s custody
Isabella’s ATL last will would name Ferdinand as regent for Eleanor’s minority or Maria as heiress if Eleanor is still in Castile



In theory, but if Eleanor is in Burgundy under her father’s custody is not unlikely who Isabella would name Maria as heiress as she was tempted to do it OTL

But Philip is in the position to block their access to the child if he starts making demands or just wants to be petty.

So either Philip hands over Eleanor to her grandparents custody as soon as she's a toddlerish age or she gets disinherited in favour of Maria and Manuel. Portugal will jump at the opportunity to rule Spain.

 

[HortenseMancini]

Margaret Tudor isn't out of the question either - she won't be married for another three years, and if Anglo-Scottish relations are slightly worse than OTL (perhaps James gave Warbeck more support than OTL) then Henry VII might choose to honour the old Anglo-Burgundian alliance rather than seek peace with the Scots.

The treaty of perpetual peace has already been signed if the pod is joanna dying in 1500 and i can't see henry or the scots being willing to break it

 

[FalconHonour]

The treaty of perpetual peace has already been signed if the pod is joanna dying in 1500 and i can't see henry or the scots being willing to break it

That's a shame, I like the idea of Phillip marrying Margaret!

 

[Vitruvius]

Exactly. Who's to say that Philip won't try and sabotage matters just because he can?

Or just shake them down for money if nothing else. Oh, I'd love it if little Eleanor had some Spanish tutors but the cost of housing all these Spanish courtiers... maybe if you send some gold along with them.

If he can't secure a role in the regency then squeeze as much as he can from his in laws before he looses his leverage.

 

[isabella]

Agreed. So the education would remain the flash point. Ferdinand and Isabella would probably want to send Spanish courtiers to Brussels to ensure Eleanor can speak spanish and be familiar with her future realm. But Philip is in the position to block their access to the child if he starts making demands or just wants to be petty.

As regards Alfonso of Ampurias as a candidate for Eleanor if they wanted a Trastamara for her wouldn't Frederick of Naples' son Ferdinand be a better choice? I know his father had been deposed but he's still a Trastamara and he would secure the claim to Naples in a period when its still be contested with France.

Alfonso of Ampurias would be the male heir in male line of Aragon, so the one who would become King if Ferdinand was not able to secure the succession to his female (line) descendants, so marrying him would reinforce Eleanor’s claim to Aragon

 

[Vitruvius]

Alfonso of Ampurias would be the male heir in male line of Aragon, so the one who would become King if Ferdinand was not able to secure the succession to his female (line) descendants, so marrying him would reinforce Eleanor’s claim to Aragon

Ok, that makes sense. And if Ferdinand is personally closer to Alfonso then he would probably be the preferred choice.

 

[isabella]

Isn't Germaine a little young? She'd only be 12 when Joanna dies so would Philip be willing to wait a few years when he really needs an heir. Though I could see her being used in a political gambit if he's trying to ring some kind of concession out of Ferdinand. Louis and Ferdinand resumed their fighting over in Naples in 1502 so if Philip doesn't conclude a marriage before then presumably the two sides would be competing for influence.

She would be around 13 years old when Philip would be able to remarry and the best match around for him and his interests (read from a Burgundian POV).

You're speaking of Isabella I, Joanna's mother and Miguel's grandmother correct? Not Isabella of Aragon, Isabella I's daughter and Miguel's mother. I read it as the latter at first but you're right, if its the former then Isabella I would presumably regulate the succession in her will and if Philip is being recalcitrant and holding Eleanor in Brussels then she could be disinherited in favor of Maria.

I guess, regardless, its a political minefield. But with Isabella's will and Ferdinand's strength as King of Aragon any claim Philip makes could be neutralized. So if he falls out with Ferdinand and Isabella does he just make a French match and throw in his lot with Louis XII or does he heed his father and marry a Jagiellon and sulk in Brussels.

Yes, Isabella I. By the way could have been only her as Miguel’s mother died in childbirth…

Margaret Tudor isn't out of the question either - she won't be married for another three years, and if Anglo-Scottish relations are slightly worse than OTL (perhaps James gave Warbeck more support than OTL) then Henry VII might choose to honour the old Anglo-Burgundian alliance rather than seek peace with the Scots.

Margaret is more than a year younger than Germaine and her family would not send her too early in Burgundy so Philip would have a much longer wait, while Germaine is likelier to be sent quickly in Burgundy and richly dowered as Louis XII would find useful secure Philip’s friendship and alliance. Plus Margaret at this point was either already engaged to James IV or close to it.

 

[Janprimus]

I see what you’re saying about Eleanor remaining in the Low Countries until she has a half brother. And I think Philip could try to be named regent of Castile but it would never happen

Which part? Eleanor staying in the Low Countries or Philip being named regent. Eleanor, until Philip has a son, is also his heiress of the Burgundian lands, and to be a cynic, Eleanor is also a very valuable bargaining chip for the Habsburgs, when negotiating with the Trastamaras, so they won't just give that up, especially with no other young archdukes and archduchesses around.

I do agree, that Phlip chances of becoming regent in Castille are slim, but only possible after a combination of things unlikely to happen all at once.

As for the OP, I initially thought that only the mother of Karel van Gent (Charles/Carlos V) died in childbirth.

 

[Janprimus]

So either Philip hands over Eleanor to her grandparents custody as soon as she's a toddlerish age or she gets disinherited in favour of Maria and Manuel. Portugal will jump at the opportunity to rule Spain.

Not until Philip remarries and has other legitimate issue, until then Eleanor is way to valuable for the Habsburgs, since she is their only heiress. Once Eleanor has half-siblings negotiations on this matter will become much easier.

 

[kasumigenx]

Ferdinand II will be the one to choose Eleanor’s husband so it could go both ways

Philip would remarry, but would not accept another useless match forced by his father so he would not marry Joanna of Naples for sure. Either Maximilian is able to persuade his son to a Jagiellon match or he will get a match useful to Burgundy so either England or France. Unluckily René II of Lorraine has no daughter in the right age range so I would say who Philip will most likely remarry to Germaine of Foix

The Alternative to Germaine de Foix is Charlotte of Naples or Anne de Foix Candale who are both age appropriate.

 

[isabella]

The Alternative to Germaine de Foix is Charlotte of Naples or Anne de Foix Candale who are both age appropriate.

Charlotte of Naples was likely already engaged as she married less than five months after Charles V’s birth and neither of them is a match comparable to Germaine of Foix

 

[kasumigenx]

Not until Philip remarries and has other legitimate issue, until then Eleanor is way to valuable for the Habsburgs, since she is their only heiress. Once Eleanor has half-siblings negotiations on this matter will become much easier.

I think Eleanor's return would be delayed until she can make the journey herself seeing what happened to Miguel, the Catholic monarchs will be cautious.

 

[King of Danes]

I think Eleanor's return would be delayed until she can make the journey herself seeing what happened to Miguel, the Catholic monarchs will be cautious.

Only if they want to marry her to someone other than Joaõ. If they’re going for him, then she’ll be sent to Spain as soon as possible (when Philip has a son that is) to Iberianize her as much as possible. In the grand scheme of things, as callous as it sounds, they don’t have much more to lose. If she makes it to Spain, great! She can grow up and marry Joaõ and unite all of Iberia. If she perishes, the next heir is Maria of Aragon, who is the mother of Joaõ. Either way the Aviz family will eventually make it to the throne. If they insist on a Trastamara match to continue the line, then Eleanor’s safety is much more important though

 

[BlueFlowwer]

Only if they want to marry her to someone other than Joaõ. If they’re going for him, then she’ll be sent to Spain as soon as possible (when Philip has a son that is) to Iberianize her as much as possible. In the grand scheme of things, as callous as it sounds, they don’t have much more to lose. If she makes it to Spain, great! She can grow up and marry Joaõ and unite all of Iberia. If she perishes, the next heir is Maria of Aragon, who is the mother of Joaõ. Either way the Aviz family will eventually make it to the throne. If they insist on a Trastamara match to continue the line, then Eleanor’s safety is much more important though

True that. As long as Maria and Manuel has sons then they have a ready heir even if Philip withholds Eleanor.

 

[kasumigenx]

However if Joanna's death butterflies the death of Miguel, there will be no issue and Miguel will marry Madeleine or Catherine as planned.

 

[isabella]

However if Joanna's death butterflies the death of Miguel, there will be no issue and Miguel will marry Madeleine or Catherine as planned.

True, but is unlikely who Juana’s death would change things for Miguel. And Miguel surviving mean who Manuel will likely remarry to Joanna of Naples while Maria will end in Hungary

 

[Tudorfan]

Margaret Tudor isn't out of the question either - she won't be married for another three years, and if Anglo-Scottish relations are slightly worse than OTL (perhaps James gave Warbeck more support than OTL) then Henry VII might choose to honour the old Anglo-Burgundian alliance rather than seek peace with the Scots.

And it strengthens England massively. Who'd support Warbeck (or other claimants) when England has the might of Spain allied with it via a double marriage; Catherine to Arthur and Margaret to Philip. That's a massive boon to England and would keep Scotland under foot.