WI earlier Merchant Uboats?

[Riain]

The merchant uboat Deutschland was ordered in October 1915, launched in April 1916 and undertook her first cruise as a merchant uboat in June 1916. Her sister boat Bremen was a few months behind, undertaking her first merchant voyage in September 1916, in which she was lost without reaching the US.

Following the success of the Deutschland's two trade voyages another 6 were ordered on 29 November 1916, but as tension increased with the US 4 of these were taken over by the navy to be turned into u-cruisers and the final 2 plus the Deutschland were taken over by the navy in February 1917.

WI the need and initial order for Deutschland and Bremen were bought forward by 6 months? Duetschland making its maiden voyage in December 1915 and Bremen in March 1916.
Assuming sailing 6 months earlier butterflies the Bremen being sunk on her maiden voyage, what difference could 2 merchant uboats opening trade with the US in 1916 make?

 

[Gunnarnz]

700 tonnes cargo capacity each, call it two sailings each per month... an extra 2800 tonnes per month. 16,800 tonnes all up. It doesn't sound like much, but if you can find some small-volume, high-value cargoes - machine tools, medical supplies, perhaps some industrial chemicals, that sort of thing - it might make a difference. Most likely outcome is it drags out the war for a few months longer, I think, but the Entente was close to the edge by the end too, so perhaps it might just be enough. Anyone got any ideas of how 16,800 tonnes of cargo could make a significant difference?

 

[Riain]

Paraphrased from Wiki, re Deutschland. For context on the value of these cargoes, in September 1915 Germany was looking to raise a $100 million in the US to counter the Anglo-French loan for $500 million.

On her maiden voyage, she carried 750 tons of cargo in total, including 125 tons of highly sought-after chemical dyes, mainly Anthraquinone and Alizarine derivatives in highly concentrated form, She also carried medical drugs, mainly Salvarsan, gemstones, and diplomatic mails, her cargo being worth $1.5 million in total. She returned with with a cargo of 341 tons of nickel, 93 tons of tin, and 348 tons of crude rubber (257 tons of which were carried outside the pressure hull). Her cargo was valued at $17.5 million. The raw materials brought back covered the needs of the German war industry for several months.

Deutschland made another round trip in November 1916 to New London, Connecticut with $10 million of cargo including gems, securities, and medicinal products and returned with a cargo that included 6.5 tons of silver bullion.

Bremen's cargo is harder to come by, but apparently was largely medical drugs and included securities for lake to build merchant subs in the US.

These are big numbers, a mere 782 tons of nickel, tin and rubber are good for several months of war production so maybe 2 uboats might keep Germany going for these strategic materials. $17 million and $10 million dollars value is a big chunk of the value of a loan that was considered big in 1915, so the value is there.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

WI the need and initial order for Deutschland and Bremen were bought forward by 6 months? Deutschland making its maiden voyage in December 1915 and Bremen in March 1916. Assuming sailing 6 months earlier butterflies the Bremen being sunk on her maiden voyage, what difference could 2 merchant U-boats opening trade with the US in 1916 make?

Honestly?

Not much, if we are restricted to the historical US war entry date, just too little and to late to make any real difference I think. It would make a little bit of difference, I'm sure, but in and of itself, this trade couldn't stop Germany's defeat, or help them break the Entente in 1916-1917, so...

If we were to posit that the opening of trade via submarines could lead to other, larger changes from OTL, like no US DOW, that might make more of a difference, if it allowed German Merchant subs to continue running till the end of the war.

 

[Riain]

Honestly?

Not much, if we are restricted to the historical US war entry date, just too little and to late to make any real difference I think. It would make a little bit of difference, I'm sure, but in and of itself, this trade couldn't stop Germany's defeat, or help them break the Entente in 1916-1917, so...

If we were to posit that the opening of trade via submarines could lead to other, larger changes from OTL, like no US DOW, that might make more of a difference, if it allowed German Merchant subs to continue running till the end of the war.

IOTL the Germans decided in late 1916 that the US was doing nothing worthwhile for them so they'd lose nothing if the US declared war, so transferred 4 merchant uboats under construction to the Navy. ITTL Deutschland and Bremen have undertaken 6-9 voyages between them in 1916 bringing back maybe $100 million of cargo and by December 1916 six more merchant uboats were about to enter service.

I couldn't tell what was made with the nickel, tin, rubber and silver, but it was very high value and this value is what I suspect to be an instrument of change. If the Germans undertake USW and cause the US to declare war they will turn off this limited but high value trade, which is a loss to Germany which I suspect might make them delay USW or wind it back somewhat. As for the US, these uboats were giving them access to these highly valuable trade goods, so I suspect the beneficiaries of this trade will not want to declare war on Germany, and maybe have the decision delayed.

 

[BELFAST]

Cargo subs like those could be used to smuggle weapons to Ireland.
If the Irish volunteer got weapons from Germany then maybe there could be a much bigger rising in 1916 in Ireland.
OTL there was an order to the volunteers to stand down from Eoin MacNeill of Irish volunteers.

Eoin MacNeill - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This along with the ss aud shipping weapons or even troops could make for a more successful rising.
With the volunteers having better weapons a larger rising might take place and divert British troops from the western front.

 

[Riain]

Where else could these uboats go? Do Spain, Mexico and other South American countries have anything worth trading in wartime?

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

IOTL the Germans decided in late 1916 that the US was doing nothing worthwhile for them so they'd lose nothing if the US declared war, so transferred 4 merchant U-boats under construction to the Navy. ITTL Deutschland and Bremen have undertaken 6-9 voyages between them in 1916 bringing back maybe $100 million of cargo and by December 1916 six more merchant U-boats were about to enter service.

I couldn't tell what was made with the nickel, tin, rubber and silver, but it was very high value and this value is what I suspect to be an instrument of change. If the Germans undertake USW and cause the US to declare war they will turn off this limited but high value trade, which is a loss to Germany which I suspect might make them delay USW or wind it back somewhat. As for the US, these U-boats were giving them access to these highly valuable trade goods, so I suspect the beneficiaries of this trade will not want to declare war on Germany, and maybe have the decision delayed.

Yes, if the valuable trade is seen by both the USA and Germany as something not to be cast aside, then I could see the USA perhaps not entering the war at all.

Cargo subs like those could be used to smuggle weapons to Ireland.

Good idea, but wrong/worst place to do it. To close to home for the British, very hard to escape notice, and easy for the British to send troops to counter.

If the Irish volunteer got weapons from Germany then maybe there could be a much bigger rising in 1916 in Ireland.

Agreed, and go for it if you like, by all means.

OTL there was an order to the volunteers to stand down from Eoin MacNeill of Irish volunteers.

Eoin MacNeill - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This along with the ss aud shipping weapons or even troops could make for a more successful rising.
With the volunteers having better weapons a larger rising might take place and divert British troops from the western front.

Now Imagine that the imperial German government had taken a proper look at the globe in 1906, and realized that something like an I-400 class arms smuggling submarine fleet would allow the Germans to ships weapons anywhere on earth, and that their two strongest European rivals derived a great deal of their wealth from having captive markets in which to sell their own manufactured goods, while buying low cost raw materials with which to feed their own economies/war effort, and all with just a bare minimum of troops deployed to their colonies, what happens if the Germans build lots of smuggler subs, and the Entente is facing ground warfare all over Africa, India, SE Asia, and maybe the ME, as well. The less developed the colony, the more likely you can make delivery undetected, and if you had some sort of amphibious bi-plane/tri-plane that could fly shipments into the interior, and just land on a lake or river...

Where else could these U-boats go? Do Spain, Mexico and other South American countries have anything worth trading in wartime?

With limited numbers, and starting in late 1915, not sure what the other markets have to offer, with the limited cargo capacity.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

If the Germans had see arms smuggling, insurgency generating, revolt building as a cheap and easy way to cause the UK and France to make a choice, loose the ground war in Europe, or loose their empires'...

Just how many merchant/cargo/smuggler subs could the Germans have built between 1906 and 1914? How advanced designs could have been developed, had this path been foreseen and gone down? How much impact could a 100 sub fleet have had, spreading arms and revolution to Entente colonies, all around the world, and all revolting at once?

For efforts to make your insurgencies more effective, communications lines like telephone/telegraph (buried in the outback), might be a great force multiplier, and if aircraft can fly in arms and ammunition, to off the beaten track, with no UK/French folks around while you recruit and build up your stockpiles...

 

[BELFAST]

Yes, if the valuable trade is seen by both the USA and Germany as something not to be cast aside, then I could see the USA perhaps not entering the war at all.

Good idea, but wrong/worst place to do it. To close to home for the British, very hard to escape notice, and easy for the British to send troops to counter.

Agreed, and go for it if you like, by all means.

Now Imagine that the imperial German government had taken a proper look at the globe in 1906, and realized that something like an I-400 class arms smuggling submarine fleet would allow the Germans to ships weapons anywhere on earth, and that their two strongest European rivals derived a great deal of their wealth from having captive markets in which to sell their own manufactured goods, while buying low cost raw materials with which to feed their own economies/war effort, and all with just a bare minimum of troops deployed to their colonies, what happens if the Germans build lots of smuggler subs, and the Entente is facing ground warfare all over Africa, India, SE Asia, and maybe the ME, as well. The less developed the colony, the more likely you can make delivery undetected, and if you had some sort of amphibious bi-plane/tri-plane that could fly shipments into the interior, and just land on a lake or river...


With limited numbers, and starting in late 1915, not sure what the other markets have to offer, with the limited cargo capacity.

That would mean the Germans plan before 1914 for a long war in Europe. That was not part of their thinking before 1914. If it was they would have built up a strategic reserve of food and other things they would need for a war. The food blockade was not something the Germans were expecting. The traditional blockades did not include food.
Smuggling arms is one thing but for them to be of use you need to be organised and trained groups that can use them.

 

[Riain]

That would mean the Germans plan before 1914 for a long war in Europe. That was not part of their thinking before 1914. If it was they would have built up a strategic reserve of food and other things they would need for a war. The food blockade was not something the Germans were expecting. The traditional blockades did not include food.
Smuggling arms is one thing but for them to be of use you need to be organised and trained groups that can use them.

True, what's more it wasn't until 1908 that Germany considered Britain might be a combatant in Germany's next war and not until December 1912 that they considered it a certainty that they'd be fighting Britain in the next war.

Some things take the experience of war to reveal their necessity, merchant uboats are one of those things.

 

[Riain]

If the Germans had see arms smuggling, insurgency generating, revolt building as a cheap and easy way to cause the UK and France to make a choice, loose the ground war in Europe, or loose their empires'...

Just how many merchant/cargo/smuggler subs could the Germans have built between 1906 and 1914? How advanced designs could have been developed, had this path been foreseen and gone down? How much impact could a 100 sub fleet have had, spreading arms and revolution to Entente colonies, all around the world, and all revolting at once?

For efforts to make your insurgencies more effective, communications lines like telephone/telegraph (buried in the outback), might be a great force multiplier, and if aircraft can fly in arms and ammunition, to off the beaten track, with no UK/French folks around while you recruit and build up your stockpiles...

That's not really how countries thought about was in 1914, General Staffs thought about campaigns and the tactics needed to win those campaigns, arms smuggling was at best a side show when someone thought about it.

Whats more subs were not nearly developed enough until about 1911. Germany laid down it's first diesel powered uboat SM U19 in October 1911, whereas Britain first diesel sub was the D class laid down in 1907 the far more mature E class was laid down in February 1911.

The third thing is that Germany didn't know it was going to be blockaded in quite the way it was until it panned out in November 1914. even as late as October 1914 the naval officer Bartenbach was investigating French ports as far west as le Harve and Cherbourg as German uboat bases. It's entirely possible that the Germans could have captured the French coast past Boulogne, making blockade running less about merchant uboats and more about fast surface ships.

 

[BELFAST]

That's not really how countries thought about was in 1914, General Staffs thought about campaigns and the tactics needed to win those campaigns, arms smuggling was at best a side show when someone thought about it.

Whats more subs were not nearly developed enough until about 1911. Germany laid down it's first diesel powered uboat SM U19 in October 1911, whereas Britain first diesel sub was the D class laid down in 1907 the far more mature E class was laid down in February 1911.

The third thing is that Germany didn't know it was going to be blockaded in quite the way it was until it panned out in November 1914. even as late as October 1914 the naval officer Bartenbach was investigating French ports as far west as le Harve and Cherbourg as German uboat bases. It's entirely possible that the Germans could have captured the French coast past Boulogne, making blockade running less about merchant uboats and more about fast surface ships.

Indeed.
If the Germans knew how a war would turn out in practice they would not have gone to war in 1914.
or they could have sent merch ship in the months leading up to the war to deliver the weapons.
guns were smuggled into Ireland in 1914 by the UVF and the Irish volunteers

Larne gun-running - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Howth gun-running - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

These guns were not very good.
The Irish volunteers got bargain basement black powder cast-off bolt action rifles.

Mauser Model 1871 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The uvf got new guns but a mixed bag of types with incomparable ammo.
Crawford secured the services of the SS Fanny to transport 216 tons of guns and ammunition which he had purchased from Benny Spiro, an arms dealer in Hamburg.[2] Included in this cache was; 11,000 Mannlicher rifles brought from the Steyr works in Austria; 9,000 Gewehr 1888s; 4,600 Italian Vetterli-Vitali rifles; and 5 million rounds of ammunition[clarification needed] in clips of five — much of which was transported from Hamburg via the Kiel Canal.[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larne_gun-running

 

[Riain]

If the Germans knew how a war would turn out in practice they would not have gone to war in 1914.

They still might have gone to war, indeed they still might have undertaken the Moltke Plan offensive much like how Japan undertook Pearl Harbour in 1941. However I suspect the aims might have been a bit different in detail, for example capturing the French Channel ports while they were undefended.

 

[BELFAST]

They still might have gone to war, indeed they still might have undertaken the Moltke Plan offensive much like how Japan undertook Pearl Harbour in 1941. However I suspect the aims might have been a bit different in detail, for example capturing the French Channel ports while they were undefended.

Even if they took all of France in 1914 as they did in 1940, they are still under Blockade by the Royal Navy.
The Germans did not even take the basic precaution of having a stockpile of copper sulphate to make Bordeaux mixture.
Without the Bordeaux mixture, this led to the failure of the potato crop in Germany due to Potato blight.
or the Germans could have stuck to their original plan and not advanced into France and allowed the french to counter-attack against the prepared defences and German forts

 

[Riain]

Even if they took all of France in 1914 as they did in 1940, they are still under Blockade by the Royal Navy.
The german did not even take the basic precaution of having a stockpile of copper sulphate to make Bordeaux mixture.
Without the Bordeaux mixture, this led to the failure of the potato crop in Germany due to Potato blight.
or the germans could have stuck to their original plan and not advanced into France and allowed the french to counter-attack against the prepared defences and German forts

The linking of campaign plans/military operations to political goals, ie war strategy was something lacking in all major combatants in 1914.

While Germany didn't have copper sulphate they did have designs for coastal B & C class coastal uboats and A class Tboats and immediately ordered these upon the outbreak of war and they entered service with 8 months. So planning was patchy rather than wholly non-existent.

 

[BELFAST]

The linking of campaign plans/military operations to political goals, ie war strategy was something lacking in all major combatants in 1914.

While Germany didn't have copper sulphate they did have designs for coastal B & C class coastal uboats and A class Tboats and immediately ordered these upon the outbreak of war and they entered service with 8 months. So planning was patchy rather than wholly non-existent.

The Germans had copper sulphate they just stopped making it as the copper all went to the war effort to make ammo.

 

[Riain]

The Germans had copper sulphate they just stopped making it as the copper all went to the war effort to make ammo.

Ahh, yes, again again there's a failure in German government to balance out the needs of the military and general economy.

Copper's not very valuable is it? Not like nickel, tin and even fanicer stuff like chromium or manganese, not the sort of thing you'd bother getting in a merchant uboat.

 

[Catspoke]

Ahh, yes, again again there's a failure in German government to balance out the needs of the military and general economy.

Copper's not very valuable is it? Not like nickel, tin and even fanicer stuff like chromium or manganese, not the sort of thing you'd bother getting in a merchant uboat.

One of the u cruisers in 1918, put some captured copper in it's hold after stopping and sinking a merchant so in Germany it's valuable enough.

 

[Basils]

700 tonnes cargo capacity each, call it two sailings each per month... an extra 2800 tonnes per month. 16,800 tonnes all up. It doesn't sound like much, but if you can find some small-volume, high-value cargoes - machine tools, medical supplies, perhaps some industrial chemicals, that sort of thing - it might make a difference. Most likely outcome is it drags out the war for a few months longer, I think, but the Entente was close to the edge by the end too, so perhaps it might just be enough. Anyone got any ideas of how 16,800 tonnes of cargo could make a significant difference?

The high value and having ties to the USA are important. As ITTL Americans are making some money off of the CP. which may lead the Americans to be less anxious to enter into WWI. Maybe a few weeks but even so that is something to consider