WI Crimean Khanate destroyed in 17th century

[marcinL]

So, in his final years, King Wladyslaw IV of Poland dreamed of a great war with the Crimea and Turks, there were some alliances and foreign funding organized, Cossacks have been roused (which had very unfortunate results very soon) and the like. But Sejm was not interested in war, particularly with OE or the Khan, and the whole affair had to be called off. Afterwards the king said that he would have done better if he had spent those money on his whores.

So what if it wasnt. Suddenly the king's fatasy begins realizing. Let's say there is some sheep plague or other famine hitting the Khanate, and in result they increase raiding to the point it cannot be ignored. In effect the whole thing escalates to the point Sejm agrees for war and even some moderate taxes, the Venice and Pope provide subsidies, Danube princedoms rise in rebellion, Cossacks raid and burn everything flammable around the Black Sea coasts, especially Ottoman navy bases and shipyards (as promised to Italians), Mediterranean states began nibbling Turks at sea, royal army supported by 50 thousand strong force of Zaporozhians and borderlands magnates invade the Crimea while Moscow strikes towards Azov. Tatars are defeated in the field, their fortresses taken, herds captured and eaten, townspeople massacred (and otherwise abused typically for the period warfare), slaves liberated, Khan's family escapes to Istanbul, the whole package, the khanate basically unravels. What now?

 

[raharris1973]

So, in his final years, King Wladyslaw IV of Poland dreamed of a great war with the Crimea and Turks, there were some alliances and foreign funding organized, Cossacks have been roused (which had very unfortunate results very soon) and the like. But Sejm was not interested in war, particularly with OE or the Khan, and the whole affair had to be called off. Afterwards the king said that he would have done better if he had spent those money on his whores.

So what if it wasnt. Suddenly the king's fatasy begins realizing. Let's say there is some sheep plague or other famine hitting the Khanate, and in result they increase raiding to the point it cannot be ignored. In effect the whole thing escalates to the point Sejm agrees for war and even some moderate taxes, the Venice and Pope provide subsidies, Danube princedoms rise in rebellion, Cossacks raid and burn everything flammable around the Black Sea coasts, especially Ottoman navy bases and shipyards (as promised to Italians), Mediterranean states began nibbling Turks at sea, royal army supported by 50 thousand strong force of Zaporozhians and borderlands magnates invade the Crimea while Moscow strikes towards Azov. Tatars are defeated in the field, their fortresses taken, herds captured and eaten, townspeople massacred (and otherwise abused typically for the period warfare), slaves liberated, Khan's family escapes to Istanbul, the whole package, the khanate basically unravels. What now?

Whole bunch of new magnate estates. Whole bunch of new peasant villages. Whole bunch of new estate management positions for Jews. Whole bunch of new Cossack "management" problems for the PLC authorities. That's used as a wedge by Muscovy and Sweden and possibly even the Transylvanians or Ottomans when they war next with the PLC.

 

[marcinL]

Whole bunch of new magnate estates. Whole bunch of new peasant villages. Whole bunch of new estate management positions for Jews. Whole bunch of new Cossack "management" problems for the PLC authorities. That's used as a wedge by Muscovy and Sweden and possibly even the Transylvanians or Ottomans when they war next with the PLC.

Yeah, though magnates would need half a century or thereabouts to utilize into that area, and who knows if John Casimir and other future kings would be also so willing to wholesale grant so much empty land as W4.

AS for the Cossacks, imagine they settle on Crimea and Jedysan and watch as it becomes a thorn in Ottoman lower backside in turn...

Though, of course, this is a song of the future, as while the Khanate has been demolished, the Ottomans are still very much alive, even if their border provinces currently resemble a brothel on fire. Perhaps someone more informed on the Ottoman Empire would be willing to comment on that?

 

[The Link]

So what if it wasnt. Suddenly the king's fatasy begins realizing. Let's say there is some sheep plague or other famine hitting the Khanate, and in result they increase raiding to the point it cannot be ignored.

From what I found, Władysław intended to provoke the crimean attack on the PLC. The Commonwealth used to bribe the Crimean Khanate by giving various gifts for the khan in exchange for preventing the Tatars' raids. And in February 1644 Władysław passed a legislation in sejm to stop these bribes, and he hoped that the khan will aggressively respond to it with an attack. Didn't happen, but I think that if he got provoked the way Władysław hoped for, this would be the perfect POD.

AS for the Cossacks, imagine they settle on Crimea and Jedysan and watch as it becomes a thorn in Ottoman lower backside in turn...

Quite likely. The polish-lithuanian magnates feared the Ottomans. As much as the selfish noblemen used to consider pledging themselves to the Swedes or to the Russians if things got hot, there was no such case in case of the Ottomans. Let's just remind how quickly in OTL the noblemen forgot about their grievances and mobilized the forces against the Ottomans after the Treaty of Buchach, and similarly how the noblemen agreed for high taxes to raise the new army back in 1621 after the battle of Cecora. When it comes to Swedes or Russians, the noblemen used to think "They are fellow christians, surely they can't be this bad", but there was no such thinking toward the Ottomans. If a full scale crimean or even ottoman invasion appears, then the noblemen might agree for the exclusively cossack control over Crimea as a way to create a strong buffer against the Ottomans.

 

[The Link]

Whole bunch of new magnate estates. Whole bunch of new peasant villages. Whole bunch of new estate management positions for Jews. Whole bunch of new Cossack "management" problems for the PLC authorities. That's used as a wedge by Muscovy and Sweden and possibly even the Transylvanians or Ottomans when they war next with the PLC.

The thing is, the Cossacks might become so strong that the magnates won't feel confident enough to try to subjugate them. In such case, the Cossacks won't be hostile against the PLC.

 

[marcinL]

From what I found, Władysław intended to provoke the crimean attack on the PLC. The Commonwealth used to bribe the Crimean Khanate by giving various gifts for the khan in exchange for preventing the Tatars' raids. And in February 1644 Władysław passed a legislation in sejm to stop these bribes, and he hoped that the khan will aggressively respond to it with an attack. Didn't happen, but I think that if he got provoked the way Władysław hoped for, this would be the perfect POD.




Quite likely. The polish-lithuanian magnates feared the Ottomans. As much as the selfish noblemen used to consider pledging themselves to the Swedes or to the Russians if things got hot, there was no such case in case of the Ottomans. Let's just remind how quickly in OTL the noblemen forgot about their grievances and mobilized the forces against the Ottomans after the Treaty of Buchach, and similarly how the noblemen agreed for high taxes to raise the new army back in 1621 after the battle of Cecora. When it comes to Swedes or Russians, the noblemen used to think "They are fellow christians, surely they can't be this bad", but there was no such thinking toward the Ottomans. If a full scale crimean or even ottoman invasion appears, then the noblemen might agree for the exclusively cossack control over Crimea as a way to create a strong buffer against the Ottomans.

Yep, when, let's say, taken prisoner by Europeans, if you wasn't killed for some reason, you could be released on parole promising to ay a reasonable ransom. With Ottomans you could spend the rest of your life rowing their galleys, or pumping water somewhere in Egypt. Furthermore, after Buchach they kindle told the nobles to work their fields themselves, because it was the sultan who was the overlord of the peasants, and the magnates were kicked off wholesale, because, as someone said, they would want to be the sultan's neighbors and not his subjects.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@Zygmunt Stary @Jan Olbracht @Valena

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

@Zygmunt Stary @Jan Olbracht @Valena

Well, I am quite sceptical of chances of PLC to succesfully defeat Ottomans, the amount of dangerous BS (not even useful BS like divine right of kings) going through nobility's heads was that potent, that commanders will most likely desert because they don't want to fight with the ones fighting for freedom (not even making this up, this is what Krzysztof Radziwiłł told Sigismund III when he was tasked to fight Swedes in Livonia), however if PLC was to somehow succeed, Vladislaus would probably make Crimea hereditary duchy for his family (idk, "Duchy of Scythia" could be the name).

 

[alexmilman]

Yep, when, let's say, taken prisoner by Europeans, if you wasn't killed for some reason, you could be released on parole promising to ay a reasonable ransom. With Ottomans you could spend the rest of your life rowing their galleys, or pumping water somewhere in Egypt.

The Ottomans were not against getting the ransom either. Not always but often enough.

 

[alexmilman]

Well, I am quite sceptical of chances of PLC to succesfully defeat Ottomans, the amount of dangerous BS (not even useful BS like divine right of kings) going through nobility's heads was that potent, that commanders will most likely desert because they don't want to fight with the ones fighting for freedom (not even making this up, this is what Krzysztof Radziwiłł told Sigismund III when he was tasked to fight Swedes in Livonia), however if PLC was to somehow succeed, Vladislaus would probably make Crimea hereditary duchy for his family (idk, "Duchy of Scythia" could be the name).

This assumes that the conquest itself was going to be a piece of cake. Just promise privileges to the Cossacks, make few speeches to the nobility and the rest is simple. The army with a huge baggage train will march through the steppe with no problems, the Ottoman fortresses will fall and the Crimea itself will be captured. The problems with financing a long-term campaign will go away and the only question is how to distribute the land among victors.

If this was so simple, the whole thing would be done by Valily Golitsyn or at least Munich.

To start with, ability of the PLC army to take the fortresses was not impressive, to put it mildly. Batory could not take Pskov and it took Sigizmund a year to take fully isolated Smolensk after it run out of a garrison. Taking, say, Ochakov with the Ottomans controlling the sea and the Poles not having an equivalent of the XVIII century siege artillery and experienced engineers will not be an easy task. The Cossacks in the siegecraft were even less impressive (look at Zbarazh).

Then goes logistics. The first step, passing through the waterless steppe to the North of the peninsula with the Tatars freely operating in it was a very difficult task even for a much more modern and better organized Russian army of the end of the XVII (and the Cossacks present did not produce any miracles). The army had to carry enormous train with the supplies and water was a big problem. If anything, that Wladislaw’s army would have a worse organized supply train and a lower march discipline than Munich’s army of the XVIII.
Even if the Perekop defenses are breached (they were too long to be effectively defended even if there was a single bridge protected by a stone fort), this would be just a beginning of a fun. Munich got into the peninsula and had to get out due to the supplies problems and diseases. Lacy did not fare better.

So the whole enterprise by a big ill-organized army with a low discipline, mutual dislike of its components, inadequate artillery and a long list of other problems does not look like as an assured victory. Rather other way around.

 

[Aluma]

Sigizmund

The one with the Poland Hungary blob abomination? Or am I thinking of the wrong guy?

Because if it is him then yeah I dont see them winning even if they were a coherent force

or at least Munich

To be fair I dont think anyone wanted a German Crimea

Or a german anything really

Then goes logistics.

Our dreaded enemy

The first step, passing through the waterless steppe

Instructions unclear I flooded the steppes

 

[Jürgen]

The bigger effect would be the removal of slave raiders, which would mean the region could more easily be settled and estate being established there. I would expect that this would mean a strengthening of magnates and a weakening of the Cossacks. With a relative empty region and Polish Ukraine being thinly populated, I would also expect the settlement of Roman Catholics from Poland, Lithuania, and Germany, through you could also see some Mennonite settlement.

Next the access to the Black Sea could also mean that overland trade route from Central Asia and India could shift to go around the Ottomans and Russians and mean closer cooperation between the Poles and Persians against the Ottomans.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

This assumes that the conquest itself was going to be a piece of cake. Just promise privileges to the Cossacks, make few speeches to the nobility and the rest is simple. The army with a huge baggage train will march through the steppe with no problems, the Ottoman fortresses will fall and the Crimea itself will be captured. The problems with financing a long-term campaign will go away and the only question is how to distribute the land among victors.

I literally typed: "
Well, I am quite sceptical of chances of PLC to succesfully defeat Ottomans"
I more or less agree with everything you wrote about that war, what I typed later was mostly explaining why PLC's form of governance wasn't suited to sustain large-scale aggresive war and only in the end I added short part about eventual success, but that was intended to be like:
"If somehow they pulled victory from impossible situation X and Z would happen...".

 

[marcinL]

The one with the Poland Hungary blob abomination? Or am I thinking of the wrong guy?

Because if it is him then yeah I dont see them winning even if they were a coherent force

To be fair I dont think anyone wanted a German Crimea

Sigismund III Vasa, King of Poland (and Sweden, before being kicked out of it)

That Munnich guy was Russian

 

[Aluma]

That Munnich guy was Russian

Yeah that was also a joke
Though legit didnt know it was a russian

Sigismund III Vasa, King of Poland (and Sweden, before being kicked out of it)

Thanks for the clarification, ended up getting them mixed up

 

[marcinL]

This assumes that the conquest itself was going to be a piece of cake. Just promise privileges to the Cossacks, make few speeches to the nobility and the rest is simple. The army with a huge baggage train will march through the steppe with no problems, the Ottoman fortresses will fall and the Crimea itself will be captured. The problems with financing a long-term campaign will go away and the only question is how to distribute the land among victors.

If this was so simple, the whole thing would be done by Valily Golitsyn or at least Munich.

To start with, ability of the PLC army to take the fortresses was not impressive, to put it mildly. Batory could not take Pskov and it took Sigizmund a year to take fully isolated Smolensk after it run out of a garrison. Taking, say, Ochakov with the Ottomans controlling the sea and the Poles not having an equivalent of the XVIII century siege artillery and experienced engineers will not be an easy task. The Cossacks in the siegecraft were even less impressive (look at Zbarazh).

Then goes logistics. The first step, passing through the waterless steppe to the North of the peninsula with the Tatars freely operating in it was a very difficult task even for a much more modern and better organized Russian army of the end of the XVII (and the Cossacks present did not produce any miracles). The army had to carry enormous train with the supplies and water was a big problem. If anything, that Wladislaw’s army would have a worse organized supply train and a lower march discipline than Munich’s army of the XVIII.
Even if the Perekop defenses are breached (they were too long to be effectively defended even if there was a single bridge protected by a stone fort), this would be just a beginning of a fun. Munich got into the peninsula and had to get out due to the supplies problems and diseases. Lacy did not fare better.

So the whole enterprise by a big ill-organized army with a low discipline, mutual dislike of its components, inadequate artillery and a long list of other problems does not look like as an assured victory. Rather other way around.

Poles and Cossack were occasionally raiding and sometimes capturing towns and fortresses in the Khanate and around the Black Sea, some of their exploits were quite impressive, like raiding Constantinople or Kaffa. Anyway, if they are to capture them (Oczakow and Perekop), it should be rather a surprise opening attack than the prolonged siege - though admittedly they wont be able to repeat that feat too many times and you cannot plan a campaign based on luck. Nevertheless, sometimes strange things happen, and this WI is basically that, suddenly everyone from Russia to Spain jumps on Turks, and Władek in particular rolls couple sixes

 

[The Link]

This assumes that the conquest itself was going to be a piece of cake. Just promise privileges to the Cossacks, make few speeches to the nobility and the rest is simple. The army with a huge baggage train will march through the steppe with no problems, the Ottoman fortresses will fall and the Crimea itself will be captured. The problems with financing a long-term campaign will go away and the only question is how to distribute the land among victors.

If this was so simple, the whole thing would be done by Valily Golitsyn or at least Munich.

To start with, ability of the PLC army to take the fortresses was not impressive, to put it mildly. Batory could not take Pskov and it took Sigizmund a year to take fully isolated Smolensk after it run out of a garrison. Taking, say, Ochakov with the Ottomans controlling the sea and the Poles not having an equivalent of the XVIII century siege artillery and experienced engineers will not be an easy task. The Cossacks in the siegecraft were even less impressive (look at Zbarazh).

Then goes logistics. The first step, passing through the waterless steppe to the North of the peninsula with the Tatars freely operating in it was a very difficult task even for a much more modern and better organized Russian army of the end of the XVII (and the Cossacks present did not produce any miracles). The army had to carry enormous train with the supplies and water was a big problem. If anything, that Wladislaw’s army would have a worse organized supply train and a lower march discipline than Munich’s army of the XVIII.
Even if the Perekop defenses are breached (they were too long to be effectively defended even if there was a single bridge protected by a stone fort), this would be just a beginning of a fun. Munich got into the peninsula and had to get out due to the supplies problems and diseases. Lacy did not fare better.

So the whole enterprise by a big ill-organized army with a low discipline, mutual dislike of its components, inadequate artillery and a long list of other problems does not look like as an assured victory. Rather other way around.

The trouble with sieges is the only issue I can agree on, but only because the polish-lithuanian army was focused mostly on cavalry. The mentioned by you siege of Pskov, while itself problematic, didn't prevent Batory from waging the war on the hostile territory. And in this case the supplies can be delivered simply through the Dnieper River with czaikas. Ill-organised army? How so? And as for the mutual dislike, the PLC had no trouble with using the Cossacks back in 1621 during the Khotyn campaign.

 

[alexmilman]

The one with the Poland Hungary blob abomination? Or am I thinking of the wrong guy?

Yes, you do. I’m talking about one who was thrown out of Sweden and screwed chance for his son to became the Tsar.

 

[alexmilman]

I literally typed: "
Well, I am quite sceptical of chances of PLC to succesfully defeat Ottomans"
I more or less agree with everything you wrote about that war, what I typed later was mostly explaining why PLC's form of governance wasn't suited to sustain large-scale aggresive war and only in the end I added short part about eventual success, but that was intended to be like:
"If somehow they pulled victory from impossible situation X and Z would happen...".

I did not argue with you, just tried to elaborate on the specific points.

Of course, a low probability is not the same as impossibility but the whole schema looked quite, shall we say “optimistic” to me.

 

[Aluma]

I’m talking about one who was thrown out of Sweden

Like a opposite day Bernadotte?

and screwed chance for his son to became the Tsar.

Huh, yet another AH material