I've been reading Clinton's My Life (currently at page 516 of 957), and a passage discusses who he considered running for president in 1988, but eventually decided that he probably couldn't win. So, what if he had given it a shot? Could he get the Democratic nomination? Could he succeed against George H. W. Bush, who'd be riding the Reagan wave?
WI Clinton Runs in 1988?
- Thread starter Adam Parsons
- Start date
A Clinton run in 1988 would almost certainly have had disastrous effects on his political career. Had he run, and had he won the nomination, he still would have lost the election. In fact, he very well might have lost it at the DNC itself. In OTL, Governor Clinton was enlisted to speak. What was supposed to be a fifteen-minute speech, turned into a half-hour long snooze fest which almost ruined his career. Had he given a speech like that as the nominee, he would have lost the election then and there. But, here’s how I see it playing out.
Clinton wins early and wins big in the primaries, trouncing his opponents. Michael Dukakis is chosen as a Vice Presidential candidate, but rejects the nomination (he is, after all, the Governor of Massachusetts at this time). Possible Vice Presidential candidates include the third and fourth place finishers in the primaries, Jesse Jackson and Al Gore. However, Jackson is too controversial and Gore, like Clinton, is a Southerner. The current top choices are Lloyd Bentsen and Dick Gephardt. However, in the end, Bentsen came up on top (after all, he had beaten George H. W. Bush in a general election before).
So, the Clinton/Bentsen team goes on the campaign trail, but not before Clinton makes a disastrous speech at the DNC in Atlanta. The Whitewater scandals could come out, but the don’t. The presidential debates go well for Clinton, and the vice presidential debates go especially well for Bentsen. However, Clinton can’t make up for his horrible speech and for the criticisms over his youth. The pair enter the election in better shape than the Democrats of OTL, and do a great deal better, but still lose. Bush is elected President and, once in office, things go roughly the same as in OTL.
In 1992, both Clinton and Bentsen vie for the Democratic nomination, as do Paul Tsongas and Bob Kerrey. It is truly a regional campaign. Clinton takes much of the South, Bentsen the lower Mid-West, and Kerrey the upper Mid-West. Meanwhile, though, Tsongas sweeps the Northeast and West Coast. In TTL, people are not yet tired of the Massachusetts liberal. Clinton drops out (after being a Presidential candidate, he’s not going to be anyone’s Vice President), as does Lloyd Bentsen (he’s tired of playing second-fiddle to men twenty years younger than he). It comes down to either Bob Kerrey or Al Gore. Kerrey’s war-service and his popularity in the Mid-West (and acceptance in the South) guarantee him the Vice Presidential nomination. The Tsongas/Kerrey line up takes the election easily, beating both George H.W. Bush and H. Ross Perot. They sweep the states Clinton took in OTL, with the exceptions of Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee, but also take the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Idaho.
Four years later, the pair are once again reelected over Dole and Kemp. The next year, Tsongas died of cancer, an ailment that few outside of his inner circle knew that he had. Bob Kerrey becomes President and appoints none other than Al Gore to succeed him as Vice President. Kerrey wins reelection (partially out of sympathy) in 2000, defeating George W. Bush and running mate James Baker. Going into the 2004 campaign, Al Gore and Christopher Dodd’s chances of continuing the Democratic dynasty against challengers John McCain and Fred Thompson look bleak, indeed…
Presidents of the United States:
Ronald Reagan (1980-1988 - R)
George H. W. Bush (1988-1992 - R)
Paul Tsongas (1992-1997 - D)
J. Robert Kerrey (1997-2004 - D)
Vice Presidents of the United States:
George H. W. Bush (1980-1988 - R)
J. Danforth Quayle (1988-1992 - R)
J. Robert Kerrey (1992-1997 - D)
Albert Gore, Jr. (1997-2004 - D)
Clinton wins early and wins big in the primaries, trouncing his opponents. Michael Dukakis is chosen as a Vice Presidential candidate, but rejects the nomination (he is, after all, the Governor of Massachusetts at this time). Possible Vice Presidential candidates include the third and fourth place finishers in the primaries, Jesse Jackson and Al Gore. However, Jackson is too controversial and Gore, like Clinton, is a Southerner. The current top choices are Lloyd Bentsen and Dick Gephardt. However, in the end, Bentsen came up on top (after all, he had beaten George H. W. Bush in a general election before).
So, the Clinton/Bentsen team goes on the campaign trail, but not before Clinton makes a disastrous speech at the DNC in Atlanta. The Whitewater scandals could come out, but the don’t. The presidential debates go well for Clinton, and the vice presidential debates go especially well for Bentsen. However, Clinton can’t make up for his horrible speech and for the criticisms over his youth. The pair enter the election in better shape than the Democrats of OTL, and do a great deal better, but still lose. Bush is elected President and, once in office, things go roughly the same as in OTL.
In 1992, both Clinton and Bentsen vie for the Democratic nomination, as do Paul Tsongas and Bob Kerrey. It is truly a regional campaign. Clinton takes much of the South, Bentsen the lower Mid-West, and Kerrey the upper Mid-West. Meanwhile, though, Tsongas sweeps the Northeast and West Coast. In TTL, people are not yet tired of the Massachusetts liberal. Clinton drops out (after being a Presidential candidate, he’s not going to be anyone’s Vice President), as does Lloyd Bentsen (he’s tired of playing second-fiddle to men twenty years younger than he). It comes down to either Bob Kerrey or Al Gore. Kerrey’s war-service and his popularity in the Mid-West (and acceptance in the South) guarantee him the Vice Presidential nomination. The Tsongas/Kerrey line up takes the election easily, beating both George H.W. Bush and H. Ross Perot. They sweep the states Clinton took in OTL, with the exceptions of Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee, but also take the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Idaho.
Four years later, the pair are once again reelected over Dole and Kemp. The next year, Tsongas died of cancer, an ailment that few outside of his inner circle knew that he had. Bob Kerrey becomes President and appoints none other than Al Gore to succeed him as Vice President. Kerrey wins reelection (partially out of sympathy) in 2000, defeating George W. Bush and running mate James Baker. Going into the 2004 campaign, Al Gore and Christopher Dodd’s chances of continuing the Democratic dynasty against challengers John McCain and Fred Thompson look bleak, indeed…
Presidents of the United States:
Ronald Reagan (1980-1988 - R)
George H. W. Bush (1988-1992 - R)
Paul Tsongas (1992-1997 - D)
J. Robert Kerrey (1997-2004 - D)
Vice Presidents of the United States:
George H. W. Bush (1980-1988 - R)
J. Danforth Quayle (1988-1992 - R)
J. Robert Kerrey (1992-1997 - D)
Albert Gore, Jr. (1997-2004 - D)
Proctol
Banned
Even at 58, Clinton's libido is still sky high. In 1988 he was 42: his testosterone levels must've been bursting. Would he not have been even less mature and more profligate than in OTL, & with the senate & public opinion being much less forgiving, with him being uncontrollably rampant with every intern in the House!
I highly doubt that Nebraska would vote Democrat, even if one of its loyal sons was running.
Mikey said:
Be that as it may, I'm thinking that several factors are coming into play that may or may not tip the balance:
1) Tsongas is a moderate at best, not a liberal.
2) Ross Perot is taking part of Bush's vote.
3) Kerrey is from Nebraska.
(minus #3, this is the mix that gave Clinton Montana in OTL)
Either way, it doesn't really matter for the overall timeline.
Alasdair Czyrnyj said:
Ah good, another reader of this book!
I liked Beck Reilly's TL. However, I don't think he'd give a speech as bad as the one IOTL at the DNC in 1988.
You know, with Clinton running, this may move the Democratic Party closer to the center sooner than OTL, due to his involvement in the Democratic Leadership Council, or DLC. (The DLC is a Centrist Democrat organization.) Or, maybe liberals can stick around as serious choices for President, as mentioned by Beck.
In OTL was not the advert about Dukakis being soft on crime make a huge difference. It would have been hard to have done that to Clinton- who afterall was very happy to take time off from the campaign to ensure the execution of a mentally disabled guy.
Had Clinton won in 1988 what would happent about Iraq would be interesting. I guess that things would have happened as in OTL up to the invasion. I suspect that Clinton's interventionist instincts might have caused him to send troops onto Bagdad.
Maybe he would have been bright enough to get out double quick. If not and events in Iraq were like those in OTL in 03-04 would Clinton be opposed for renomination
Had Clinton won in 1988 what would happent about Iraq would be interesting. I guess that things would have happened as in OTL up to the invasion. I suspect that Clinton's interventionist instincts might have caused him to send troops onto Bagdad.
Maybe he would have been bright enough to get out double quick. If not and events in Iraq were like those in OTL in 03-04 would Clinton be opposed for renomination
NapoleonXIV
Banned
Proctol said:
Why would Congress and the public be less forgiving in 1988? The 1988 Congress was Democrat majority. The 1996 Congress had undergone a very definite sea change in 1994