A Clinton run in 1988 would almost certainly have had disastrous effects on his political career. Had he run, and had he won the nomination, he still would have lost the election. In fact, he very well might have lost it at the DNC itself. In OTL, Governor Clinton was enlisted to speak. What was supposed to be a fifteen-minute speech, turned into a half-hour long snooze fest which almost ruined his career. Had he given a speech like that as the nominee, he would have lost the election then and there. But, here’s how I see it playing out.
Clinton wins early and wins big in the primaries, trouncing his opponents. Michael Dukakis is chosen as a Vice Presidential candidate, but rejects the nomination (he is, after all, the Governor of Massachusetts at this time). Possible Vice Presidential candidates include the third and fourth place finishers in the primaries, Jesse Jackson and Al Gore. However, Jackson is too controversial and Gore, like Clinton, is a Southerner. The current top choices are Lloyd Bentsen and Dick Gephardt. However, in the end, Bentsen came up on top (after all, he had beaten George H. W. Bush in a general election before).
So, the Clinton/Bentsen team goes on the campaign trail, but not before Clinton makes a disastrous speech at the DNC in Atlanta. The Whitewater scandals could come out, but the don’t. The presidential debates go well for Clinton, and the vice presidential debates go especially well for Bentsen. However, Clinton can’t make up for his horrible speech and for the criticisms over his youth. The pair enter the election in better shape than the Democrats of OTL, and do a great deal better, but still lose. Bush is elected President and, once in office, things go roughly the same as in OTL.
In 1992, both Clinton and Bentsen vie for the Democratic nomination, as do Paul Tsongas and Bob Kerrey. It is truly a regional campaign. Clinton takes much of the South, Bentsen the lower Mid-West, and Kerrey the upper Mid-West. Meanwhile, though, Tsongas sweeps the Northeast and West Coast. In TTL, people are not yet tired of the Massachusetts liberal. Clinton drops out (after being a Presidential candidate, he’s not going to be anyone’s Vice President), as does Lloyd Bentsen (he’s tired of playing second-fiddle to men twenty years younger than he). It comes down to either Bob Kerrey or Al Gore. Kerrey’s war-service and his popularity in the Mid-West (and acceptance in the South) guarantee him the Vice Presidential nomination. The Tsongas/Kerrey line up takes the election easily, beating both George H.W. Bush and H. Ross Perot. They sweep the states Clinton took in OTL, with the exceptions of Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee, but also take the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Idaho.
Four years later, the pair are once again reelected over Dole and Kemp. The next year, Tsongas died of cancer, an ailment that few outside of his inner circle knew that he had. Bob Kerrey becomes President and appoints none other than Al Gore to succeed him as Vice President. Kerrey wins reelection (partially out of sympathy) in 2000, defeating George W. Bush and running mate James Baker. Going into the 2004 campaign, Al Gore and Christopher Dodd’s chances of continuing the Democratic dynasty against challengers John McCain and Fred Thompson look bleak, indeed…
Presidents of the United States:
Ronald Reagan (1980-1988 - R)
George H. W. Bush (1988-1992 - R)
Paul Tsongas (1992-1997 - D)
J. Robert Kerrey (1997-2004 - D)
Vice Presidents of the United States:
George H. W. Bush (1980-1988 - R)
J. Danforth Quayle (1988-1992 - R)
J. Robert Kerrey (1992-1997 - D)
Albert Gore, Jr. (1997-2004 - D)