The problem with that reasoning is that one could turn it around--why did Confederates, *when speaking to each other* (rather than to, for example, the British) say from the beginning that Lincoln's victory would mean the doom of slavery.
Though this is a good point, the problem is that the Confederates are basing their assumptions on ignorance. They have a few speeches Lincoln made several years ago, before he expected to be president, and assumptions about what he would do in office. No detailed statements of policy from presidential candidates back in those days, remember? The election campaign, with all the rhetoric about this being the only way to protect their "domestic institution", heats things to boiling point; when Lincoln is elected, fears and anger grow; when he claims to be prepared to ignore slavery, as he did at the Cooper Institution, they can point to his earlier speeches and claim he's lying; eventually, secession follows. On the other hand, the Radical Republicans have several years of Lincoln's administration to base their criticism on.
Thanks I really had looked and wondered at that for it did not feel quite right. Thanks for the detailed research into the actual background of the affair.
The sad thing is that Mary Ellison proved that there was a sizeable amount of working-class support for intervention in Lancashire almost 45 years ago, and yet the myth keeps getting peddled. I've found examples of such meetings in similarly depressed areas elsewhere in Britain: the only reason you'd be surprised to see them is if you believe, for some ideological reason, that the working class can do no wrong. Even then, a moment's reflection would permit those people to construct an alternative explanation. The working-class still care about the plight of the slave, but they know that their social betters do too; the best way of drawing attention to Lancashire and encouraging the relief efforts is to vote for something as utterly abhorrent as indirect support of a slave state in order to publicise the depths to which they've sunk. Simple, really.
The fact that the meeting was addressed and organised by prominent people isn't the point, it was the audience and the result that mattered, as Lincoln knew.
Here's the question. If someone had posted an example of a working-class meeting with the South, and I had pointed out that there were a large number of middle-class delegates and representatives there, would you have been so quick to defend it as a genuine expression of the sentiment of the working class?
I'm familiar with this quotation, but was it really well-known at that time? Was this letter published in one of Greeley's newspapers or was it private correspondence?
I was curious to see exactly how well-known it was, so I looked on the BL's collection of digitised 19th century newspapers. Here's a list of those which mentioned it in the fortnight or so after news arrived, based on the search terms "Lincoln", "Greeley", and "slave*"
Liverpool Mercury (Liverpool, England), Saturday, September 6, 1862
Reynolds's Newspaper (London, England), Sunday, September 7, 1862
The Era (London, England), Sunday, September 7, 1862
Birmingham Daily Post (Birmingham, England), Monday, September 8, 1862
The Caledonian Mercury (Edinburgh, Scotland), Monday, September 8, 1862
Daily News (London, England), Monday, September 8, 1862
Glasgow Herald (Glasgow, Scotland), Monday, September 8, 1862
The Leeds Mercury (Leeds, England), Monday, September 8, 1862
The Morning Post (London, England), Monday, September 08, 1862
The Standard (London, England), Monday, September 08, 1862
The Bury and Norwich Post, and Suffolk Herald (Bury Saint Edmunds, England), Tuesday, September 09, 1862
Dundee Courier & Argus (Dundee, Scotland), Tuesday, September 09, 1862
The Aberdeen Journal (Aberdeen, Scotland), Wednesday, September 10, 1862
The Derby Mercury (Derby, England), Wednesday, September 10, 1862
Newcastle Courant (Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England), Friday, September 12, 1862
Nottinghamshire Guardian (London [sic], England), Friday, September 12, 1862
The Examiner (London, England), Saturday, September 13, 1862
The Lancaster Gazette, and General Advertiser for Lancashire, Westmorland, Yorkshire, &c. (Lancaster, England), Saturday, September 13, 1862
Manchester Times (Manchester, England), Saturday, September 13, 1862
The Hampshire Advertiser (Southampton, England), Saturday, September 13, 1862
The Penny Illustrated Paper (London, England), Saturday, September 13, 1862
The Leicester Chronicle: or, Commercial and Agricultural Advertiser (Leicester, England), Saturday, September 13, 1862
Jackson's Oxford Journal (Oxford, England), Saturday, September 13, 1862
Lloyd's Weekly Newspaper (London, England), Sunday, September 14, 1862
The Bradford Observer (Bradford, England), Thursday, September 18, 1862
The Essex Standard, and General Advertiser for the Eastern Counties (Colchester, England), Friday, September 19, 1862
Allowing for those newspapers which paraphrased its remarks, or referred to Lincoln's letter in subsequent editorials without printing the original, and for the fact that many British newspapers have not been preserved and only a handful have been digitised, I think it's safe to say they've heard about it.
Meanwhile the Southern agents in Britain and France preach their view of states rights and liberation
Among other topics. In December 1863 the main Confederate spokesman, James Spence of Liverpool ("S" in many of his letters to the papers) is informed that the South no longer requires his services. The grounds are that he has been denouncing slavery and predicting its abolition in an independent Confederacy.
before the Emancipation Proclamation the Union can't even pretend it's fighting a war to stop slavery
The Union didn't even try- at least formally. Seward instructs Adams that "you will not consent to draw into debate before the British government any opposing moral principles, which may be supposed to lie at the foundation of the controversy between those (the Confederate) States and the Federal Union" (Seward to Adams, 10 April 1861). He made it more explicit to Dayton in Paris- "refrain from any observation whatever concerning the morality or immorality, the economy or the waste, the social or the unsocial aspects of slavery... the condition of slavery in the United States will remain the same whether [the revolution] shall succeed or fail" (Seward to Dayton, 22 April 1861). Are we particularly surprised the British and French governments take a sceptical view of the Union's anti-slavery credentials when these are the instructions the ambassadors are working under?
Seward only removes this ban on 28 May 1862. Unfortunately, rather than use it to announce that the Union is determined to overthrow slavery to the best of its ability, he warns the British that any attempt to mediate or intervene would result in the North starting a servile war in the South. Probably not what the British wanted to hear to convince them that the Union can be trusted to look after the best interests of the slaves.
Prussia has what to gain from war with France in 1862?
If people are going to claim that European nations are ready to leap into war while others are distracted, it would be nice if they took the time to find out what was going on in those countries first. On 22 September 1862 Bismarck- not yet chancellor- is walking through the grounds of the royal palace at Babelsberg with the King, who has in his pocket an unsigned declaration of abdication. The country is in the midst of a political crisis over army reform; the liberal parliamentary majority, holding c.230 of the 352 seats, is blocking the budget; the cabinet has concluded that constitutionally William cannot govern without the support of the chamber; William would rather abdicate than back down; Bismarck has been summoned back from a holiday in Toulouse by a coded telegram from the war minister to try and resolve the panic. This is not a country ready to leap into war against France, nor is this the army that which beat the French almost ten years later. The slightest familiarity with European history will tell you that.