Tony Crosland was one of the most influential thinkers on the socially democratic right wing of the Labour Party from the 1950s onwards. A protégé of Hugh Gaitskell, he served as Education Secretary, President of the Board of Trade and Local Government Secretary in the first Wilson government. In 1967 he was considered the most likely candidate to succeed James Callaghan as Chancellor, but due to his poor relations with Wilson was passed over in favour of his former close friend Roy Jenkins. In opposition Crosland remained fairly neutral in the internal Labour Party debates about Europe, whilst Jenkins resigned as Deputy Leader in protest at Wilson's decision to oppose Edward Heath's EEC entry bid. Jenkins never reached the same political stature again. When Labour returned to power Crosland became Environment Secretary.
When Wilson resigned as Labour Leader and Prime Minister in March 1976 Crosland was one of those who threw his hat into the ring. However his performance was an incredible disappointment, placing last in the first round of the leadership election, winning just 17 votes. Many of Crosland's potential supporters divided between supporting Jenkins and Callaghan. Crosland switched his support to Callaghan, and was rewarded when he was victorious, succeeding Callaghan as Foreign Secretary. This was a remarkable appointment for a man who had so clearly come last in the leadership ballot, and owed more to the fact that none of the other candidates could realistically take over the foreign office: Foot and Benn were too left wing, Jenkins' staunch pro-Europeanism would alienate the left, and considering the government's nearly non-existent majority Callaghan decided to keep Healey in place as Chancellor. However Callaghan promised both Crosland and Healey (on several occasions) that after approximately 18 months in office both men would switch offices.
Crosland was an able Foreign secretary, building up a strong rapport with other international statesmen. Then in February 1977 he suffered cerebral haemorrhage and suddenly died.
What if Crosland had lived? He would almost certainly have succeeded Healey as Chancellor in the autumn of 1977, by which time the economic situation had significantly improved following the IMF crisis. In 1978 perhaps Crosland would have convinced Callaghan to go for an early election, his political antennae were certainly more attuned than that of many of his contemporaries (Crosland had argued against Wilson calling an election in June 1970, preferring to wait until October), although I think this case is a bit more tenuous to argue.
What is fairly likely is that Crosland would have run for the leadership when Callaghan retired/resigned. Whilst Crosland did share Healey's inability to "suffer fools gladly", his personality was less combative and alienating than Healey's. His standing had increased as Foreign Secretary, and surely by 1980 his standing would have been on par with that of Healey. Had Crosland come ahead of Healey in the early rounds of that leadership election his chances of defeating the left - in the form of Michael Foot or Peter Shore - would have been much better than Healey's, and he would likely have won.
Both David Owen and Shirley Williams have been on the record in saying that they would not have left the Labour Party had Healey become leader, and this would surely apply to Crosland too. Roy Jenkins would probably still have joined the Liberals (his wife Jennifer had openly voted Liberal in 1979), and perhaps some of those Labour MPs most at risk from deselection would have joined him, but the figure would have been much, much smaller than those who joined the SDP.
Crosland would still have faced opposition from the left, but unlike Foot - or indeed Healey until he was challenged by Benn - Crosland would have fought tooth and nail in opposition to the hard left. One of his last engagements before he died had been a speech to Oxford Labour Club setting out his view that the extreme left had to be taken on and defeated. Crosland was after all a veteran of the Gaitskellite battles of 1959-61.
With the economic recovery of 1982-83, as well as victory in the Falklands, the Conservatives would still have won the 1983 election, probably with an increased majority, but it would not have been the landslide of OTL without an SDP-Labour split. Crosland would have retired from the leadership, but would be unlikely to have been succeded by Kinnock, more likely Hattersley, or perhaps even Shirley Williams had she returned to parliament.
That's my view, what do other people think might have happened had Tony Crosland lived?
When Wilson resigned as Labour Leader and Prime Minister in March 1976 Crosland was one of those who threw his hat into the ring. However his performance was an incredible disappointment, placing last in the first round of the leadership election, winning just 17 votes. Many of Crosland's potential supporters divided between supporting Jenkins and Callaghan. Crosland switched his support to Callaghan, and was rewarded when he was victorious, succeeding Callaghan as Foreign Secretary. This was a remarkable appointment for a man who had so clearly come last in the leadership ballot, and owed more to the fact that none of the other candidates could realistically take over the foreign office: Foot and Benn were too left wing, Jenkins' staunch pro-Europeanism would alienate the left, and considering the government's nearly non-existent majority Callaghan decided to keep Healey in place as Chancellor. However Callaghan promised both Crosland and Healey (on several occasions) that after approximately 18 months in office both men would switch offices.
Crosland was an able Foreign secretary, building up a strong rapport with other international statesmen. Then in February 1977 he suffered cerebral haemorrhage and suddenly died.
What if Crosland had lived? He would almost certainly have succeeded Healey as Chancellor in the autumn of 1977, by which time the economic situation had significantly improved following the IMF crisis. In 1978 perhaps Crosland would have convinced Callaghan to go for an early election, his political antennae were certainly more attuned than that of many of his contemporaries (Crosland had argued against Wilson calling an election in June 1970, preferring to wait until October), although I think this case is a bit more tenuous to argue.
What is fairly likely is that Crosland would have run for the leadership when Callaghan retired/resigned. Whilst Crosland did share Healey's inability to "suffer fools gladly", his personality was less combative and alienating than Healey's. His standing had increased as Foreign Secretary, and surely by 1980 his standing would have been on par with that of Healey. Had Crosland come ahead of Healey in the early rounds of that leadership election his chances of defeating the left - in the form of Michael Foot or Peter Shore - would have been much better than Healey's, and he would likely have won.
Both David Owen and Shirley Williams have been on the record in saying that they would not have left the Labour Party had Healey become leader, and this would surely apply to Crosland too. Roy Jenkins would probably still have joined the Liberals (his wife Jennifer had openly voted Liberal in 1979), and perhaps some of those Labour MPs most at risk from deselection would have joined him, but the figure would have been much, much smaller than those who joined the SDP.
Crosland would still have faced opposition from the left, but unlike Foot - or indeed Healey until he was challenged by Benn - Crosland would have fought tooth and nail in opposition to the hard left. One of his last engagements before he died had been a speech to Oxford Labour Club setting out his view that the extreme left had to be taken on and defeated. Crosland was after all a veteran of the Gaitskellite battles of 1959-61.
With the economic recovery of 1982-83, as well as victory in the Falklands, the Conservatives would still have won the 1983 election, probably with an increased majority, but it would not have been the landslide of OTL without an SDP-Labour split. Crosland would have retired from the leadership, but would be unlikely to have been succeded by Kinnock, more likely Hattersley, or perhaps even Shirley Williams had she returned to parliament.
That's my view, what do other people think might have happened had Tony Crosland lived?