What if the british transfered all the irish catholic population of Northern Ireland to the RoI?

[Gukpard]

We had some cases of forced population transfers in the 1920s, like the turks with the greeks and the armenians after the greco-turkish war or the poles and germans in silesia.

Assuming the british sees this as a definitive solution to prevent dissent like the troubles, and negociated for Ireland to receive all the northern irish catholic population to recognize their independence, and then received the scant irish protestant population on northern ireland, and also used poor british protestant citizens (be scottish, from wales or english) to repopulate northern Ireland, could the british do it? How Northern Ireland would look like today? What would be the historical repercussions?

 

[nezza]

The UK would face global outrage for forced movement. It would be a Western European version of the Serbian expulsions of 1999 and could even lead to UN military action. The UK would be treated as an international pariah and may lead to Catholic uprisings in Glasgow and Liverpool as well as riots across the UK. The IRA et al would unleash hell on the mainland

Even if Northern Ireland became a pure Protestant state it may not allow "mainlanders"

 

[jsb]

The UK would face global outrage for forced movement. It would be a Western European version of the Serbian expulsions of 1999 and could even lead to UN military action.

IN 1921........? (GB could do anything as no major power would do anything)

 

[sarahz]

IN 1921........? (GB could do anything as no major power would do anything)

Hmm the British army is not large enough to achieve this and also contains a lot of Catholic soldiers who won't like this neither will the Catholic Irish Icommunities living in Britain There just is no mainland constituency outside of the cities of Glasgow and Liverpool that would be in favour of this. Secondly Lloyd George is PM some one whose first language is not English and who dislikes Unionists as does the Liberal part of the coalition quite strongly in fact. Indeed so does Austen Chamberlain.. Slightly ironically.

 

[nezza]

IN 1921........? (GB could do anything as no major power would do anything)

Whoops didn't that bit. But there would still be all hell breaking loose.

 

[jsb]

I agree with most of your post and do agree it's a very bad idea down a very dark path but I don't think that,

Hmm the British army is not large enough to achieve this

Is really true we are talking about a British army (+ Indian army if needed and want units of none Catholic soldiers) v a small number of locals who will mostly simply accept it and head south as fast as possible to avoid the fate of some of the groups listed above that would be all to familiar to them from newspapers?

"1926 there were 420,000 Catholics in a total Northern population of 1,257,000. " How many troops would GB needs considering they deployed an average of 2M men in WWI?

 

[Gukpard]

Hmm the British army is not large enough to achieve this and also contains a lot of Catholic soldiers who won't like this neither will the Catholic Irish Icommunities living in Britain There just is no mainland constituency outside of the cities of Glasgow and Liverpool that would be in favour of this. Secondly Lloyd George is PM some one whose first language is not English and who dislikes Unionists as does the Liberal part of the coalition quite strongly in fact. Indeed so does Austen Chamberlain.. Slightly ironically.

Is really true we are talking about a British army (+ Indian army if needed and want units of none Catholic soldiers) v a small number of locals who will mostly simply accept it and head south as fast as possible to avoid the fate of some of the groups listed above that would be all to familiar to them from newspapers?

Could the majority move without using the army? Maybe there is this agreement between both sides and whoever catholic who lives is granted a pension by the british and a house by the republican irish?

 

[ShortsBelfast]

In 1921 Protestants were 69% of the population of NI and didn't feel that the remaining Catholic population were a serious threat. A lot were hill farmers of marginal land or pub owners with a Protestant clientele. Your stereotypical little Protestant village had one Catholic family that ran the pub, a sort of "shabbes goy" situation. And there was more inter marriage than outsiders often realise particularly before the Catholic church hardened its line on all the issue having to be brought up Catholic. Old country arrangements were that sons took the father's faith and daughters the mothers. And as I have said before a lot of people's Orangery and Greenery stopped short of seeing their neighbours and first cousins as hate figures.

 

[Lalli]

That would lead to nationwide riots by Catholics. If Brits can expel Northern Irish Catholics who says that they wouldn't do same for other Catholics? And probably in NI is too many Catholics to expel. And I doubt that Catholic British soldiers would tolerate that even if they are threatened by martial court and firing squarom. This is not too going improve relationships with Ireland. Probably this would cause much of rage over the world. Greeks or Armenians are one thing but expulsing members of one of largest religion in the world? Pope probably would excommunicate all Brits.

So if this is not really bad idea I don't know what is.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

"1926 there were 420,000 Catholics in a total Northern population of 1,257,000. "

Do you have the corresponding figures for the Irish Free State in 1926?

My hazy memory is that Ireland had a population of 4.2 million according to the 1911 Census. About 75% were catholic and 25% were protestant.

Based on the above there would have been about 200,000 protestants in the Free State in 1926 out of a population of 3 million. Is that an accurate guess?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

How many troops would GB need considering they deployed an average of 2M men in WWI?

I've no idea.

However, these are the personnel strengths of the British Army from the British Army in the 20th Century by Ian V. Hogg.

1917 - 3,833,017​

1918 - 3,838,265​

1920 - 1,064,743​

1921 - 434,725​

1922 - 296,948​

1923 - 205,095​

1924 - 207,152​

A large percentage of the 434,725 in 1921 would have been in Ireland fighting the IRA. Backing them up was the Royal Irish Constabulary which AIUI was a para-military force.

 

[Gukpard]

I've no idea.

However, these are the personnel strengths of the British Army from the British Army in the 20th Century by Ian V. Hogg.

1917 - 3,833,017​

1918 - 3,838,265​

1920 - 1,064,743​

1921 - 434,725​

1922 - 296,948​

1923 - 205,095​

1924 - 207,152​

A large percentage of the 434,725 in 1921 would have been in Ireland fighting the IRA. Backing them up was the Royal Irish Constabulary which AIUI was a para-military force.

There is no way to do this population transfer without using the military? Granting stimulus for moving families and stuff?

 

[iani]

It's almost as crazy as dumping the protestants back in Scotland from where they were planted a couple of hundred years before.

 

[Garrison]

Short of Britain going full on Nazi and casting the Catholics in the position of the Jews in Germany this is impossible.

 

[Drizzt]

There goes any chance of a Lend&Lease bill ever making it through US Congress 19 years later.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

There is no way to do this population transfer without using the military? Granting stimulus for moving families and stuff?

I have no idea. I made that post to show the forces that were available. Furthermore, I think it's what's scientifically know as a bloody stupid idea!

Many years ago I heard an anecdote that expelling the catholic Irish from Great Britain was considered. However, King George V summed up the impracticality of the idea by saying something like, "Who will dig the ditches?" Ireland's greatest export is its people and the British economy needed Irish labour.

It also provided a lot of recruits for the British armed forces. I wouldn't be surprised if there had been more southern Irish serving in HM Forces in the 50 years following 1922 than there were in the Irish armed forces. Off the top of my head about 100,000 southern Irish fought with the British in World War II including Brendan Finucane one of the RAF's top scoring fighter pilots.

I doubt that the southern Irish will continue to serve in anything like the OTL numbers after 1922 ITTL.

 

[sarahz]

I agree with most of your post and do agree it's a very bad idea down a very dark path but I don't think that,
Is really true we are talking about a British army (+ Indian army if needed and want units of none Catholic soldiers) v a small number of locals who will mostly simply accept it and head south as fast as possible to avoid the fate of some of the groups listed above that would be all to familiar to them from newspapers?

"1926 there were 420,000 Catholics in a total Northern population of 1,257,000. " How many troops would GB needs considering they deployed an average of 2M men in WWI?

We are talking about the peacetime force not the force of WW1 Secondly using coloured troops in the UK against white men whilst suggested by Churchill to put down the Ulster volunteers ironically might be a little unwise. Ormore precisely might be thought to set a regretable example. Additionally some troops will be Tasked with dealing with the inevitable follow up of deporting all Irish residen
ts of Britain and the terrorism that inspires. This will also damage UK relations with the US Australia and the Catholic world. And for what purpose

 

[sparky42]

Do you have the corresponding figures for the Irish Free State in 1926?

My hazy memory is that Ireland had a population of 4.2 million according to the 1911 Census. About 75% were catholic and 25% were protestant.

Based on the above there would have been about 200,000 protestants in the Free State in 1926 out of a population of 3 million. Is that an accurate guess?

The Protestant population was only about 10% of the Free States population I think, which dropped to 7% post 1922, with at least 60K leaving for various reasons.
As to the OP, given the state of the Free State, trying to absorb this amount of forced movement in the 20's would almost certainly break the state, it wouldn't be able to absorb that much people.

 

[Gukpard]

The Protestant population was only about 10% of the Free States population I think, which dropped to 7% post 1922, with at least 60K leaving for various reasons.
As to the OP, given the state of the Free State, trying to absorb this amount of forced movement in the 20's would almost certainly break the state, it wouldn't be able to absorb that much people.

What if the UK promises to pay for 80% of the costs?

 

[Kotka]

Such an action in 1920 would spark some outrage in Canada and the United States due to the large Irish populations altough probably nothing too severe.
Now, it could becompared to the Greek-Turkish transfer that happened around the same time. If no large killings or massacres happen it could be seenby modern day historians as something that bringed stability to the island to the awful cost of religious cleansing. The IRA would probably still exist however it would have a less solid support.