What if the british transfered all the irish catholic population of Northern Ireland to the RoI?

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
So instead of having Irish Catholics inside NI demanding not to get out but allow the RoI to take over NI, you have Catholic refugees in RoI demanding they get their homes, property & businesses back.

Not a great advance from a British PoV.

AIUI the RoI was often worried the British would hand NI over to them as the social welfare bill would bankrupt the RoI very quickly.
 
I don't know the exact numbers for the early 20s but there has always been large nos. of Southern Irish working & living in mainland Britain. So you could end up with people expelled from Ulster now living in Liverpool or London which possibly defeats the whole point of the exercise.
 
So instead of having Irish Catholics inside NI demanding not to get out but allow the RoI to take over NI, you have Catholic refugees in RoI demanding they get their homes, property & businesses back.

Not a great advance from a British PoV.

AIUI the RoI was often worried the British would hand NI over to them as the social welfare bill would bankrupt the RoI very quickly.
The cost of NI is always an issue, though again it depends on when we are talking about, the subvention funding of NI is far less in the 20's than nowadays even adjusted for inflation, also think that only started in the mid 20's so maybe not. The other major issue Dublin always has is importing the instability of NI. In this TL that would be done automatically to a degree if you had a forced movement of Catholics. Hell my Grandmother on my mothers side is a clear example, they well a fairly middle class Catholic family in Belfast that were "encouraged" to move post partition, to the day she died she never stopped hating England for Partition. Multiple that by several hundred thousand and as I've said you have an extremely hostile body politic in Ireland towards the UK with all that brings.
 
Given that OTL, one of the factors that drove the UK to accept was international pressure both externally by the US but also internally from the Dominions you''d have to have a major POD to convince the Cabinet to go down this route, and yeah there's a whole other question regarding the ramifications within the UK to such a major ethnic cleansing.
The American factors are particularly significant given the enormous UK war debt, the influence of the Irish-American block and bodies such as the American Commission on Conditions in Ireland. I'd expect a shift in US foreign policy.
 
The American factors are particularly significant given the enormous UK war debt, the influence of the Irish-American block and bodies such as the American Commission on Conditions in Ireland. I'd expect a shift in US foreign policy.
Also as seen in the second half of the documentary tonight, the Cabinet would have faced a King that was "unhappy" already at the conduct of the Crown Forces in Ireland already, would he balk openly at a forced movement like this?
 
I don't even think the worst 'Hollywood' version of the English could stomach such an act - let alone the actual real life version in the 1920's

No this might be okay for the Turks and all that but not Britain in 1921
 
I don't even think the worst 'Hollywood' version of the English could stomach such an act - let alone the actual real life version in the 1920's

No this might be okay for the Turks and all that but not Britain in 1921
True enough, as I said Portillo by random chance was on covering the War and Truce talks and as one of the commentators said, it had reached the point then that the UK couldn't win unless using actions that the British Public and Dominions would find abhorrent, this POD being far worse I just can't see happening short of an ASB action. To London, they had solved the Irish question just fine by 1922 (spoiler, no they didn't)...
 
I don't even think the worst 'Hollywood' version of the English could stomach such an act - let alone the actual real life version in the 1920's

No this might be okay for the Turks and all that but not Britain in 1921

Don't forget it was also okay for the Greeks. Population transfer, overseen by the League of Nations, was seen at the time as a legitimate tool to help nation-states, not as the terrible force we perceive it as today. A population transfer of Catholics to RoI and Protestants to NI would see a lot of opposition, and might not pass, but it wouldn't be a priori damned (as long as it was done with the permission of the League of Nations).
 
I don't even think the worst 'Hollywood' version of the English could stomach such an act - let alone the actual real life version in the 1920's

No this might be okay for the Turks and all that but not Britain in 1921
Any British government that tried this would be out of office very quickly. They'd face and lose a vote of no confidence. The MP's would know their own constituents would turf them out at the next election if they supported such an act.
 
Also the British claim to the six counties is based on the wishes of the majority of the inhabitants. Overtly messing with the composition of the population pretty much destroys the legitimacy of the claim.
The Six counties were picked deliberately to create the position of a majority, not the 9 of Ulster that would have been to even, nor the 4 of total Unionist majority, not sure that "legitimacy" comes into it.
 
I don't think something like this could work in a democracy unless fear is a factor,there would have to be 1990s type Bosnian situation to get it started.Waves of Catholics fleeing Belfast,street warfare in Derry and Donegal,and the inevitable torment of southern Protestants in reprisal,add the explosions sure to hit Liverpool,London,Birmingham,Manchester,Leeds,Huddersfield,Glasgow and I see no benefit for any British politician
 
The UK gvt wouldn't do this in the 1920s without some radical changes occurring first, like say a mass Irish defection in WW1 with German connivance that lasts many years and sees mass casualties akin to the 1640s level of conflict

I am not going to say that they couldn't do it, though. There was precedent for this kind of atrocity at the time, of course, and I imagine that the rather nasty treatment of the Anglo-Irish in the RoI after the formation of the Free State would be even worse and would see forced deportations as well

So any transfers would have to be mutual otherwise the expulsion likely fails
 
The Six counties were picked deliberately to create the position of a majority, not the 9 of Ulster that would have been to even, nor the 4 of total Unionist majority, not sure that "legitimacy" comes into it.
I know how the border was drawn. and should have said "...destroys any legitimacy the claim might have had". What I meant to imply is that the argument the British employed falls apart if they deliberately relocate people, not that the argument was morally right.
 
The cost of NI is always an issue, though again it depends on when we are talking about, the subvention funding of NI is far less in the 20's than nowadays even adjusted for inflation, also think that only started in the mid 20's so maybe not. The other major issue Dublin always has is importing the instability of NI. In this TL that would be done automatically to a degree if you had a forced movement of Catholics. Hell my Grandmother on my mothers side is a clear example, they well a fairly middle class Catholic family in Belfast that were "encouraged" to move post partition, to the day she died she never stopped hating England for Partition. Multiple that by several hundred thousand and as I've said you have an extremely hostile body politic in Ireland towards the UK with all that brings.
There is of course a parallel group among NI Protestants, descendants of RIC officers, the Dublin working class Protestants who were intimidated out, shopkeepers who were boycotted out, some of the strongest Loyalist positions have been taken by their descendants.
The Six counties were picked deliberately to create the position of a majority, not the 9 of Ulster that would have been to even, nor the 4 of total Unionist majority, not sure that "legitimacy" comes into it.
The initial plan (by Asquith's government) was to exclude the four clear Unionist majority counties and initial Unionist desire was to exclude the nine counties with substantial Protestant populations. This would have still had a 55% Unionist majority, the bulk of population was on the East Coast. Slightly more evenly distributed than today but the demographic trend was already there.
After the war, there was a desire to reward the conspicuously loyal Unionists for their immense sacrifices (they had their own Erskine Childers figure, a young English civil servant turned soldier called Wilfred Spender was so awed by the performance of the Ulster Division at the Somme that he adopted the Unionist cause and became the head of the NI Civil Service) and to punish the hostile Sinn Feiners. At the same time, Carson who was a more romantic Unionist and who had more of a desire to wreck Irish moves to national independence had lost much of his political credibility as a consequence of his poor performance as a wartime Minister ceased to hold the dominant position among the Unionists and was replaced by the much more hard headed James Craig and Milne Barbour. The latter were prepared to take on Fermanagh and Tyrone (49 and 48% Unionist respectively) but not to saddle themselves with Donegal or Monaghan with their third Unionist populations or Cavan with its quarter Unionist population. They saw themselves as having achieved a compact state with an inbuilt Unionist majority. They had of course no idea of forthcoming industrial decline which would disproportionately prompt working class Protestant emigration or the demographic consequences of the relatively reliable condom and the Pill.
They didn't want South Armagh but weren't prepared to give it up unless they got something in exchange.
The other factor that we don't properly appreciate nowadays is that Northern Nationalists have been radicalised by the years of Stormont rule and that a hundred years ago they were the most cautious and Redmondite wing of Irish nationalism. This wasn't surprising. Ulster Protestants might well have kept the cream of the jobs to their own community but there wasn't significant unemployment in either community before the mid 1920s. If Home Rule were to bring disaster and a loss of the Empire trade as Unionists prophesied then Northern Catholics/Nationalists were equally screwed. If the shipyards closed and trade died up, the unskilled Catholic workers were even more likely to starve than the Protestant riveters and engineers, the Catholic dockers than their Protestant foreman, if the Unionist businessmen went bankrupt, their Catholic tailor went down with them....
The leading IPP councillor in Belfast City Council referred to Sinn Fein as a "noxious weed" in his private diaries.
 

Deleted member 94680

I don't even think the worst 'Hollywood' version of the English could stomach such an act - let alone the actual real life version in the 1920's

No this might be okay for the Turks and all that but not Britain in 1921

Indeed. I'm going to bookmark this thread for the next time there is some TL casually proposing the British start acting like Nazis with better moustaches...
 
Also as seen in the second half of the documentary tonight, the Cabinet would have faced a King that was "unhappy" already at the conduct of the Crown Forces in Ireland already, would he balk openly at a forced movement like this?
Interesting point. I suspect his personal horror at the behavior of Crown forces wouldn't have been aired in public but he would have been forceful with Lloyd-George (or whoever was PM, I really can't LG being this stupid) in private. The constitutional limits were strong.

I don't even think the worst 'Hollywood' version of the English could stomach such an act - let alone the actual real life version in the 1920's

No this might be okay for the Turks and all that but not Britain in 1921
I agree. This isn't Africa in the 1890 when massacring unruly 'natives' was perfectly acceptable, this is Europe in the 1920 with publicity and the UK already being scrutinised in the US.
 
Interesting point. I suspect his personal horror at the behavior of Crown forces wouldn't have been aired in public but he would have been forceful with Lloyd-George (or whoever was PM, I really can't LG being this stupid) in private. The constitutional limits were strong.
True, however he would have other means, for example the Dominions, which came into play in OTL during the War, Smuts played a not insignificant role. Would the UK follow through if the Dominions are against this as well as the King?
 
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