On 12th July 1983 Neil Kinnock was involved in a very serious car accident whilst returning to London from giving a speech in Wales. His car careered off the road and somersaulted over the barrier. His vehicle was totally written off, but Kinnock survived the incident unscathed and continued his campaign for the Labour leadership within a matter of days. What if Neil Kinnock had been killed? (After all the Liberal MP David Penhaligon, a likely future contender for the Liberal/Liberal Democrat leadership was killed in a similar accident in 1986).
By the time of Kinnock's accident the Labour leadership election was well underway, indeed Kinnock was already as good as elected, having recieved the backing of roughly 2/3 of Labour's union affiliates, being by far the most popular candidate amongst rank and file members (of Constituency parties that held ballots Kinnock's main rival Roy Hattersley won only one, Hattersley's own constituency of Birmingham Sparkbrook) and Kinnock's popularity amongst the Parliamentary Labour Party was such that he won support even from members of the moderate right, and the votes of all but one of Labour's new 1983 intake of MPs. Nominations were due to closed on 15th July 1983, giving the Tribunite left only two days to find an alternate candidate. The most plausible candidate would have been John Silkin, who had sought the leadership in 1980 and had run for the deputy leadership in 1981 as the anti-EEC, pro-unilateralist, non-Bennite candidate. If Silkin had run he would have lacked Kinnock's appeal with rank and file Labour members, his diverse appeal within the PLP and his connections within the trade union movement. He was also 20 years older than Kinnock, and having served in the Wilson and Callaghan government's lacked Kinnock's ability to claim generational change. In all likelihood this would have meant each of the three remaining candidates: the moderate Roy Hattersley, the moderate but anti-EEC Peter Shore and the Bennite Eric Heffer would all have recieved higher vote shares than in OTL.
With Hattersley's chances in the leadership race greatly enhanced its likely the Tribunite left would have sought to nominate a candidate for the Deputy leadership in order to achieve the 'Dream Ticket' that in OTL was achieved with the left wing Kinnock and the right wing Hattersley. The obvious candidate would be Kinnock's campaign manager Robin Cook. Cook had not served in the shadow cabinet under Foot and so was not a plausible candidate for the leadership, but could have convincingly served as Deputy to Hattersley.
As for who would have won either of the leadership races in this scenario, im not quite sure. Kinnock was so obviously the frontrunner, his removal from the race creates a huge degree of uncertainty. One thing that is virtually certain is it would not have been Eric Heffer, who had a unique ability to alienate potential allies, reflected in the fact that he did significantly worse in each section of the electoral college than his supposed running mate for the Deputy Leadership Michael Meacher (particularly amongst the all important Trade Union affilate section). All in all i'd guess Hattersley probably comes out on top, with the union barons wanting to push for a new 'dream ticket' headed by Hattersley with someone like Robin Cook as deputy. Thoughts?
By the time of Kinnock's accident the Labour leadership election was well underway, indeed Kinnock was already as good as elected, having recieved the backing of roughly 2/3 of Labour's union affiliates, being by far the most popular candidate amongst rank and file members (of Constituency parties that held ballots Kinnock's main rival Roy Hattersley won only one, Hattersley's own constituency of Birmingham Sparkbrook) and Kinnock's popularity amongst the Parliamentary Labour Party was such that he won support even from members of the moderate right, and the votes of all but one of Labour's new 1983 intake of MPs. Nominations were due to closed on 15th July 1983, giving the Tribunite left only two days to find an alternate candidate. The most plausible candidate would have been John Silkin, who had sought the leadership in 1980 and had run for the deputy leadership in 1981 as the anti-EEC, pro-unilateralist, non-Bennite candidate. If Silkin had run he would have lacked Kinnock's appeal with rank and file Labour members, his diverse appeal within the PLP and his connections within the trade union movement. He was also 20 years older than Kinnock, and having served in the Wilson and Callaghan government's lacked Kinnock's ability to claim generational change. In all likelihood this would have meant each of the three remaining candidates: the moderate Roy Hattersley, the moderate but anti-EEC Peter Shore and the Bennite Eric Heffer would all have recieved higher vote shares than in OTL.
With Hattersley's chances in the leadership race greatly enhanced its likely the Tribunite left would have sought to nominate a candidate for the Deputy leadership in order to achieve the 'Dream Ticket' that in OTL was achieved with the left wing Kinnock and the right wing Hattersley. The obvious candidate would be Kinnock's campaign manager Robin Cook. Cook had not served in the shadow cabinet under Foot and so was not a plausible candidate for the leadership, but could have convincingly served as Deputy to Hattersley.
As for who would have won either of the leadership races in this scenario, im not quite sure. Kinnock was so obviously the frontrunner, his removal from the race creates a huge degree of uncertainty. One thing that is virtually certain is it would not have been Eric Heffer, who had a unique ability to alienate potential allies, reflected in the fact that he did significantly worse in each section of the electoral college than his supposed running mate for the Deputy Leadership Michael Meacher (particularly amongst the all important Trade Union affilate section). All in all i'd guess Hattersley probably comes out on top, with the union barons wanting to push for a new 'dream ticket' headed by Hattersley with someone like Robin Cook as deputy. Thoughts?