What if John Smith had died in 1988?

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Labour Party Leader John Smith suffered a fatal heart attack in May 1994, however it was not the first attack he had suffered. Just after Labour's 1988 Conference, whilst Shadow Chancellor, he had suffered a serious heart attack, and had to spend 3 months away from parliament as a consequence. But what if he had died in 1988?

In the immediate term it would mean Kinnock would have to appoint a new Shadow Chancellor, the three most likely candidates being Gordon Brown, Bryan Gould or Roy Hattersley. It would also complicate who might succeed Kinnock as party leader, as Brown, Gould, and perhaps others like Robin Cook, Margaret Beckett, Tony Blair or John Prescott would have run for the leadership.

 

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In the immediate term it would mean Kinnock would have to appoint a new Shadow Chancellor, the three most likely candidates being Gordon Brown, Bryan Gould or Roy Hattersley. It would also complicate who might succeed Kinnock as party leader, as Brown, Gould, and perhaps others like Robin Cook, Margaret Beckett, Tony Blair or John Prescott would have run for the leadership.

Probably be either Gould or Brown, as Hattersley was really burnt out by the 1987 and the ensuing Deputy Leadership contest. I do suspect that Gould would become Shadow Chancellor as he was Kinnock’s original choice before Hattersley had a fit and demanded someone else. With Hattersley political burnt out by the Deputy Leadership challenge by Prescott (in which Kinnock had to put a lot of effort into ensuring that Hattersley was re-elected) then he probably won’t be able to badger Kinnock over Gould.

Now with Gould as Chancellor you probably get a more narrower 91/92 election or maybe even a slim Labour Majority as Gould whilst having a habit of being a bit too much of a wonk on certain issues, would likely do things like back campaigning on tax cuts and ensure a similar ‘prawn cocktail campaign’ like Smith. Essentially Gould means a less Fiscally Conservative Labour spending plans (though probably not to the extremes he outline in the Future of Socialism).

Now Brown is also a possibility, though I could see the nomination of Brown leading a certain amount of cabinet infighting if anything if he acts as bullish as he did with Gould.